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#1
Those who have been following my MLB thread ‘Critique my Method’ will be familiar with my strategies and money management method. Last year I did very well with the NFL, but of course making money in the NFL is different from MLB so I’ll explain a few things.
A brief overview of my strategy: I look at offensive pass efficiency less sacks vs defensive pass efficiency plus sacks, offensive run efficiency vs defensive run efficiency, offensive interception rate vs defensive interception rate, offensive fumble rate, penalty yards per play and home field advantage. Then I calculate a ‘strength of schedule’ rating and finally, I look at the spread.
My first look at the line is to look for statistical advantages or disadvantages. This is purely statistical, e.g., 1 in 6 NFL games last year ended in a 3 point margin, but only 3% ended in a 5 point margin. So, I compare the probability of win and the likely margin of win against the line. Remember that the line is based not simply on the bookmaker’s expectation of game performance, but on public betting as well, and line movement of even half can significantly alter the value of the bet.
There isn’t much subjective about my approach. I don’t follow the teams closely enough to know about personnel issues or drama, although occasionally if I hear about a significant change I will ignore the game altogether, but don’t count on that as a factor because my formula is based on logical regression and stats and not my personal football insights.
Also, I’m biased against huge spreads, so you’ll either see me take a big underdog with a huge line in some cases, or avoid those games altogether. That’s my one personal pet peeve that you should consider. One more thing-I’m a Titans fan and have been accused of ignoring them altogether out of paranoia as to subjectivity, but I’ve reviewed my picks and don’t find any evidence of that. So, consider yourself disclosed/disclaimed on these two items.
Last year we were 65% ATS, but I didn’t start until the third week. There are 5 picks, on average, per week. I bet a flat amount on each game, I recommend 5% of a 50 unit bankroll. Don’t look for lots of discussion from me about the games, that’s just not me. I hope you all make lots of money this year.
Mark
A brief overview of my strategy: I look at offensive pass efficiency less sacks vs defensive pass efficiency plus sacks, offensive run efficiency vs defensive run efficiency, offensive interception rate vs defensive interception rate, offensive fumble rate, penalty yards per play and home field advantage. Then I calculate a ‘strength of schedule’ rating and finally, I look at the spread.
My first look at the line is to look for statistical advantages or disadvantages. This is purely statistical, e.g., 1 in 6 NFL games last year ended in a 3 point margin, but only 3% ended in a 5 point margin. So, I compare the probability of win and the likely margin of win against the line. Remember that the line is based not simply on the bookmaker’s expectation of game performance, but on public betting as well, and line movement of even half can significantly alter the value of the bet.
There isn’t much subjective about my approach. I don’t follow the teams closely enough to know about personnel issues or drama, although occasionally if I hear about a significant change I will ignore the game altogether, but don’t count on that as a factor because my formula is based on logical regression and stats and not my personal football insights.
Also, I’m biased against huge spreads, so you’ll either see me take a big underdog with a huge line in some cases, or avoid those games altogether. That’s my one personal pet peeve that you should consider. One more thing-I’m a Titans fan and have been accused of ignoring them altogether out of paranoia as to subjectivity, but I’ve reviewed my picks and don’t find any evidence of that. So, consider yourself disclosed/disclaimed on these two items.
Last year we were 65% ATS, but I didn’t start until the third week. There are 5 picks, on average, per week. I bet a flat amount on each game, I recommend 5% of a 50 unit bankroll. Don’t look for lots of discussion from me about the games, that’s just not me. I hope you all make lots of money this year.
Mark
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