Critique My Method

dharbour: thanks for the idea.  I've been so close to this now for three months that I didn't think to evaluate the losses.

P.S.  PIT paid off today didn't they?

Hey guys, I'm at 65% winners for the month just picking underdogs, which will increase my YTD performance to 56%.  Today I'm going with CLE over LAA; my formula shows them essentially even and with a 190 ML it's perfect for a value play.

dharbour: put my username in front of yahoo and you've got my email (sorry, I couldn't find how to get yours).

CLE lost yesterday, and today I'm going with OAK, with a 180 ML, so my bet will be .6u to recoup yesterday's loss.

bigdog:  I've been working on a formula that considers several factors, including:  home team ppg vs visiting team era, visiting team ppg vs home team era, plus the same formula which considers the starting pitcher ERA instead of team, and finally, i have a formula which evaluates what I call the 'line value', i.e., the value of the ML vs my own probability of a win by the underdog.  It's basically an evaluation of where the line has been moved to compensate for the public betting and is no longer tied to the actual probability of the team winning.  For example, your typical underdog is a 44% probability of winning, but if the line is 170, then it is a value play.  The difference is knowing that the 170 is a good deal, and that's what the comparison of the earlier data does for me.

Today I'm going with BAL over TOR @ 140.

bigdog: Thanks for the feedback, I'll keep posting occasionally on the results.

I wasn't short in the market but I do have a huge cash position. I don't think we've seen the bottom.

Hey guys, I thought I'd give you an update after a few days off from posting. 

Beginning July 22, I had a six game losing streak, my longest by far (previous longest was 4 games).  I commented here and privately that I knew I was due, since I had already had a 5 game winning streak once, but it was tough.  I lost on CLE, then OAK, then BAL, WAS, WAS, and STL.

Even with my experience in the markets (and with alot more money at stake) I found it hard to pull the trigger, especially today.    Today I went with SFO over LOS @ 185, and pulled out the win. 

Because of the money management strategy I use, I was down 10 units after the sixth loss, and today my bet was 5.5 units (to break even).

Looking back on the month, I've had 11 wins and 11 losses, so even with my 6 game losing streak I'm at 50%, which is basically my goal.  It looks like I'll only finish the month with about a 40% increase in my bankroll, less than April, May and June, but still respectable.

Excellent idea! Right now I'm actually using two separate formulas and just eyeballing the results.  I think I'll add this as a third and then begin to integrate.

Anyone have good methods for backtesting these strategies, I'm all ears!

Congrats on the success. Im am impressed with the rate you are hitting the dogs at. Do you post your plays or would rather keep private?

I don't mind sharing them, I just don't always log in.  Yesterday I went with AZ over SDO @ 122 (win).  Today I'm going with FLA over NYM.  If there's interest I'll start posting what I'm doing.


You'll have to forgive me, I don't come from a betting background so I'm not familiar with all the terminology, but here's how I manage the bankroll:

1.  I bet one unit on each game, and I use a 50 unit bankroll. 
2.  If I lose a game, on the next game I bet an amount which will result in a 'break even' situation.  After the first loss this usually means I'm betting something like .6 units, because I always bet on underdogs with a ML of say, 120 or 130.  If I lose again, it's very simple: I calculate my accumulated loss, and then bet an amount on the next game so that if I win, I will break even.  I continue to do this until I have a win.

The advantage of this method is that I'm not doubling up or trying to squeeze a big win out; I'm just trying to mediate my loss.  It's easy to keep up with, and doesn't result in huge bets.

Since the beginning of the season, I've regularly had 3 game losing streaks, but I don't get nervous because I end up only betting a few units on that 4th game.  I've had a 4 game losing streak twice, and last week I had my longest losing streak to date; 6 games. I won the 7th game, bringing me back to breakeven on that series, which for the month  is up about 42%.

I think I commented on here that I knew I was due, because I'd already had a 5 game win streak (early July).  But I was getting anxious on the 6th and 7th game.  I believe you have to stick with a system, and it worked out in this case.

Hey y'all, FLA paid off nicely tonight.  It's so strange the way streaks work.

Since I'm averaging just above 50% picking dogs, I thought I'd do a little experiment.  Tonight I had one of my kids flip a quarter repeatedly, and had another write down the streak. To my amazement, in the first 10 flips we had heads six times in a row.  Statistically this shouldn't happen but 1.5% of the time (I think my math is right).

Anyway, the conclusion is obvious; if you play enough the statistics are going to catch up with you, and your methods need to withstand that test.  I have complete confidence in my ability to pick dogs at 50% or better, but I'm not convinced that my present money management method sufficiently protects me from a long losing streak.

For anyone who cares, I'm going with MIL over CHI today @ 129.

Here is my formula:
First formula: (PPG_home + ERA_road)/2 - (PPG_road + ERA_home)/2
Second formula: (PPG_home + ERA_{road pitcher})/2 - (PPG_road + ERA_{home pitcher})/2

I'm looking for the two formulas to agree, i.e., both result in a positive outcome or both result in a negative outcome (of course that's a predictor of the home team's likely margin of victory/loss).

Finally, I favor home underdogs and I look for dogs that have a ML of 120 or better (although not strict on this latter part).

Interesting formula--thanks for taking time to post it. I have a few questions about some of the specifics.
1. PPG home/away--- overall ppg for season or just for specific situation(home ppg/away ppg)?
2. ERA home/away--same question---season era or specific situation era?
3. ERA home pitcher/road pitcher---same thing--- all games started or specific situation?
 Thanks for taking time out to help.I've been watching for a while and think 50% on underdogs is pretty good. GL to you

1.   Specific to the situation (home vs away)
2.  see #1
3.  All games started by that pitcher.  If that pitcher started the game, I consider the total runs scored.  This allows me to factor the value of the bullpen without doing statistical acrobatics.

I'll post actual results for the season in a day or two.  Combined with good money management, this is the best I've found (after 2 yrs of observation).

Hey guys, we lost on MIL yesterday.  Today I'm taking BAL over SEA @ 120.  This means I will bet .85 units today, with the objective of getting back to break even.

The July record was 13-12 with a 11 unit gain. Our worst month yet, but we're still up 43 units since the beginning of the season with a total of 108 plays.