I came up with a conservative modification to your system. Only play if both teams are above 71%. .71 × .71 = .50. Therefore, two teams projected with a 71% chance at winning combine for a coinflip. The two teams today, Win and Ana are projected at 73%. .73 × .73 = .53. The parlay on Bovada is +153. Hence we have a better chance than a coin flip with positive EV wager by over 50%. Positive EV may work for other wagers using the system, but I would like at least a coin flip. Thanks again for the great system, I apologize for jumping the gun on today's picks.
I just put my life savings on a team called the Mighty Ducks - just kidding
Thanks for the suggestion of the modification Surfer, if you would like to keep track of that method feel free to do so here , but for the meantime I will continue to
post as I was while keeping a eye on your suggestion , anything that can boost win % and profits is great. Thanks for your input 
. Check out my new system called parley medley hopefully we can make some coin on that also. 
Surfer after your suggestion I have gone back through my records and it appears that we certainly would have fewer plays , however it doesn't appear to change the winning % at all as there often times when 70% chance or more has lost and often times where the odds are less than 70% when we have won so I don't think the coin flip analogy works here. You are more than welcome to tweak the system anyway you like , and if you do find something please let me know .
Much appreciated Rustie
I think what we are missing here is the fact that the picks are what Sagarin considers the two strongest plays according to his statistics, irregardless of whether we like the matchup or not. I have often played games where I personally would not have picked only to rewarded with a win, and I consider myself a decent capper. I think the key to this system is simple, trust the stats. . There are going to be losses, that is inescapable, however in the length of time I have been playing this I have gone to a "D" game only twice. "In Sagarin we trust". Best of luck with whatever you decide
Bluestar I actually liked the Blues yesterday, didn't work out, but then if I was right all the time I wouldn't be here in the frigid north I would be on a beach somewhere in the Caribbean lol. To your point of Sagarin being right only 50% of the time I feel that in a chase situation that can work in our favor no? especially on the solo plays. To my way of thinking I am confident enough in the system so far that I don't want to miss out on the win because I didn't agree with it. As for my capping skills they only come in to play on this "system" when a tie in percentage needs to be broken, the other alternative is to play both games, which I won't be doing. Thankyou for your input and feel free to play however you like ,this is just something I came up with and thought I would share. If you come up with a better way to play it then feel free to share it with us, that's what we are here for ,to help each other. Best of luck , Rustie.
To add to the above , I would like to say that I also play Danrules24 system as you are aware, don't post there so much because the system is self explanatory as is this one. My point is , do you change the plays because you don't agree with them or do you just blindly play as I suspect you do? That after all is the nature of a system. As for this being a new system I have played this for a couple of years now , I just haven't posted anything and thought I would share it with others in the "systems and strategy" forum. And I don't feel I have contradicted myself at all , I can handicap with the best of them thankyou.
Well there you go folks ,I am done here, I have given you the bones of this system, do with it what you will. However I will not tolerate someone coming in here and telling me I have contradicted myself when I have done no such thing. As a matter of fact if you go back a page or so ,said person admits to being a poor capper and then comes on and says he's capping games out of play, so who is contradicting themselves? I thought it would be nice to have a place to share info and what not , but after doing extensive reading here in this particular forum it has become clear that there is a reason this place is devoid of any real sharing of ideas lately and it all seems to point to a particular individual who has a habit of going in to others threads and hijacking them for their own personal glory while contributing nothing of any significance.
As I said I am done here, good luck to any and all
I haven't checked this thread in a couple days. I am not sure what is going on with BlueStar (who I finally deduced is a Cowboys Fan) and Rustie. I think Rustie has a good system. My (conservative) modification is to hold out until both plays are over 71% so my 2 team wager is a coin flip.
Today, for example, there are only 2 games on the NHL Schedule. Jeff S. has Car at 65% and Wsh at 59%. Taking both together, (.65 × .59) the parlay has a 38.35% chance at success. The corresponding ML to 38% is +161. The parlay on Bovada for Car and Wsh is paying +197. Therefore, this is a really good system with positive EV. Today's parlay would not be a bad wager. It is the type of wager someone who knew nothing about sports but wanted to apply math from say, his Wall Street Job, would be all over. Betting on +197 at 38% probability will win over time because the usual line for 38% is +161
Myself, I am going to hold out until both teams combined give me a 50% coin flip.
Admittedly, I do not question Jeff Sagarin's percentage forecast. There is enough math and figuring with sports wagering. His reputation is good. In college hoops, the NCAA uses him to help seed teams. Of course the NHL is not the animal NCAAB is, but I blindly trust his forecast. I am up with this system. Like I mentioned, I choose to be patient, waiting for two (or three) over 71%
Rustie - Great Thread. I checked out Sagarin when I first got into sports wagering. I forgot about him over the years. Thanks for reminding me. I'm up bro
@ru$tie
[Quote: Originally Posted by rustie] Well there you go folks ,I am done here, I have given you the bones of this system, do with it what you will. However I will not tolerate someone coming in here and telling me I have contradicted myself when I have done no such thing. As a matter of fact if you go back a page or so ,said person admits to being a poor capper and then comes on and says he's capping games out of play, so who is contradicting themselves? I thought it would be nice to have a place to share info and what not , but after doing extensive reading here in this particular forum it has become clear that there is a reason this place is devoid of any real sharing of ideas lately and it "all seems to point to a particular individual who has a habit of going in to others threads and hijacking them for their own personal glory while contributing nothing of any significance". As I said I am done here, good luck to any and all.....
very well said....you're a good guy with a winning thread, unfortunately it was perpetuated by S&S NOTORIOUS 'troll' BlueStar57, nothing more than an attention seeking clown disguised as someone who is a winning handicapper with other peoples material, that's all he does, and that's all he has ever done....and continues to do so...A lame, with no shame. Fortunately for youself, you woke up to his bullshit and discontinued a winning thread..good job, hope to hear from you soon with more winning material, minus the trolls that were attracted to winning, and hijacking your thread...take care
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