Posted:
#26
Rough start. 
Best of luck the rest of the way.
Best of luck the rest of the way.0
BOWL SYSTEM PLAYS
Posted:
#28
Buc Backer, One thing Ive learned lately is that a system is just that and no more. I have been playing games for nearly 20 years, and Im fairly new here on Covers, and I do love it. Point is I developed a system first week hit a nearly 75% ATS O/U....Next week went below 40%.....so I thought I am really overthinking something so I simplified cut out all the rhetoric and looked at consensus info and walla back in at 11-3-1 ATS O/U. We can only make educated guesses and thats what capping is, guesses based on information....but in the end its all fairly simple ...averages + consensus + line moves = prediction, factor in the spread and finally ask yourself what are the odd setters trying to get me to do and then do the opposite....thats been my formula for 2 weeks and its worked but there is a lot more football to go......gl man!
0
Posted:
#29
Hey Buc I am new here but don't let people get you down. Navy game should have been a push. Zona was just running the clock down when they ripped that long run at the end. BYU should have had a touchdown in the first defensive series on the fumble recovery. That guy wasn't even close to being down. If they score first then the game would have had a different tone. Stay with it and I look forward to your pick today.
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Posted:
#30
Hey Trip--appreciate the input, thanks. I've been playing 25+ years myself and have had my share of winners. And losers, not going to hit 'em all. And not gonna stray from a consistent System. One bad day won't phase me...esp. when a bounce here or there (or should I say whistle!!) would've changed 2 games..Stay tuned..
Odie, thanks for the vote of confidence...I've been around long enough to know not to get ruffled by the masses! Glad you watched the games and luck of the bounces.. we'll get 'em back!
Re-caps, analysis, and pick up about 4...thanks guys..
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Posted:
#31
Certainly not the start we expected and no excuses for any of the picks, I'll be the 1st to admit Memphis turned-out a bigtime dud. But just a note to Allin and the other gloaters out there: evidently I was not the only fool tricked by Memphis as the game actually went off at +10.5 after opening at +13, quite a swing...
As mentioned, "good bets lose everyday, bad bets win everyday". Assuming you watched Navy/WF, even the staunchest Wake supporter has to admit, that cover was a gift. And also mentioned the importance of coaching; Navy (1st year Coach) ahead 13-0 and driving (on the ground!) near the end of the half, throws a pass that's intercepted inside the 5! Momentum change..long drive..TD! And the final covering TD run and ensuing Navy drive...you saw it, enough said...
As for BYU..the top pick..3 missed FG's, 3 TO's (yes I know AZ had 3 too!), 10 penalties (2 scoring killers), and a pass defense that got burnt all night! And the OBVIOUS BYU-TD reversal of the early fumble that CLEARLY occurred before the whistle! Still had a chance for a cover at the end but attempted the FG (hit upright!) instead of going for the TD. Something Navy did as well...
That's the way the Ball Bounces, as I said no excuses, but just as easily could've been winners. Hopefully will win a few of the close ones with the Bounces! Can only say if the same games were played today, I'd pick those same 2 teams! As for Memphis, sheer embarrassment. On to Southern Miss and Troy..GOOD LUCK!!
NEW ORLEANS BOWL: Should figure to be a similar game to Yesterday's ColoSt-Fresno as far as the actual match-up, but don't expect as much scoring. Two senior-heavy teams, Troy stayed home last year while SoMiss went Bowling. Both teams finished the season strongly, SoMiss the tougher schedule strength. Last year, lost competitive Bowl to Cincy (BCS this yr!), but had 3 blow-out Bowl wins before that (two over other Sun Belt'ers). One real negative...Golden Eagles had a mid-season run where they went 0-5 both SU and ATS--good teams don't do that!! But on the positive, did not allow 100 ryg or give up a rushing TD over the final four games! Troy missed the Bowl party last year, but had a blow-out win the previous year. Troy finished the season by out-stat'ing its opponent 8-0...the line opened at -3 and perhaps the reason the public has taken Troy to -4.5 (big line move like Memphis!!)?? Really hate to back a first-year Coach after yesterday (1-2, win was dog CSU), but we have to think a team whose QB was 3-deep on the depth chart (before mid-season injuries) is not a team to lay 4.5 with against an opponent that has monstrous lines on both sides of the ball. We'll grab the points with the Golden Eagles, SOUTHERN MISS + 4.5 *1* LEAN
Next Post...Tues POINSETTIA BOWL..6:30'ish
As mentioned, "good bets lose everyday, bad bets win everyday". Assuming you watched Navy/WF, even the staunchest Wake supporter has to admit, that cover was a gift. And also mentioned the importance of coaching; Navy (1st year Coach) ahead 13-0 and driving (on the ground!) near the end of the half, throws a pass that's intercepted inside the 5! Momentum change..long drive..TD! And the final covering TD run and ensuing Navy drive...you saw it, enough said...
As for BYU..the top pick..3 missed FG's, 3 TO's (yes I know AZ had 3 too!), 10 penalties (2 scoring killers), and a pass defense that got burnt all night! And the OBVIOUS BYU-TD reversal of the early fumble that CLEARLY occurred before the whistle! Still had a chance for a cover at the end but attempted the FG (hit upright!) instead of going for the TD. Something Navy did as well...
That's the way the Ball Bounces, as I said no excuses, but just as easily could've been winners. Hopefully will win a few of the close ones with the Bounces! Can only say if the same games were played today, I'd pick those same 2 teams! As for Memphis, sheer embarrassment. On to Southern Miss and Troy..GOOD LUCK!!
NEW ORLEANS BOWL: Should figure to be a similar game to Yesterday's ColoSt-Fresno as far as the actual match-up, but don't expect as much scoring. Two senior-heavy teams, Troy stayed home last year while SoMiss went Bowling. Both teams finished the season strongly, SoMiss the tougher schedule strength. Last year, lost competitive Bowl to Cincy (BCS this yr!), but had 3 blow-out Bowl wins before that (two over other Sun Belt'ers). One real negative...Golden Eagles had a mid-season run where they went 0-5 both SU and ATS--good teams don't do that!! But on the positive, did not allow 100 ryg or give up a rushing TD over the final four games! Troy missed the Bowl party last year, but had a blow-out win the previous year. Troy finished the season by out-stat'ing its opponent 8-0...the line opened at -3 and perhaps the reason the public has taken Troy to -4.5 (big line move like Memphis!!)?? Really hate to back a first-year Coach after yesterday (1-2, win was dog CSU), but we have to think a team whose QB was 3-deep on the depth chart (before mid-season injuries) is not a team to lay 4.5 with against an opponent that has monstrous lines on both sides of the ball. We'll grab the points with the Golden Eagles, SOUTHERN MISS + 4.5 *1* LEAN
Next Post...Tues POINSETTIA BOWL..6:30'ish
0
Posted:
#32
Quote Originally Posted by BucBacker:
Certainly not the start we expected and no excuses for any of the picks, I'll be the 1st to admit Memphis turned-out a bigtime dud. But just a note to Allin and the other gloaters out there: evidently I was not the only fool tricked by Memphis as the game actually went off at +10.5 after opening at +13, quite a swing...
As mentioned, "good bets lose everyday, bad bets win everyday". Assuming you watched Navy/WF, even the staunchest Wake supporter has to admit, that cover was a gift. And also mentioned the importance of coaching; Navy (1st year Coach) ahead 13-0 and driving (on the ground!) near the end of the half, throws a pass that's intercepted inside the 5! Momentum change..long drive..TD! And the final covering TD run and ensuing Navy drive...you saw it, enough said...
As for BYU..the top pick..3 missed FG's, 3 TO's (yes I know AZ had 3 too!), 10 penalties (2 scoring killers), and a pass defense that got burnt all night! And the OBVIOUS BYU-TD reversal of the early fumble that CLEARLY occurred before the whistle! Still had a chance for a cover at the end but attempted the FG (hit upright!) instead of going for the TD. Something Navy did as well...
That's the way the Ball Bounces, as I said no excuses, but just as easily could've been winners. Hopefully will win a few of the close ones with the Bounces! Can only say if the same games were played today, I'd pick those same 2 teams! As for Memphis, sheer embarrassment. On to Southern Miss and Troy..GOOD LUCK!!
NEW ORLEANS BOWL: Should figure to be a similar game to Yesterday's ColoSt-Fresno as far as the actual match-up, but don't expect as much scoring. Two senior-heavy teams, Troy stayed home last year while SoMiss went Bowling. Both teams finished the season strongly, SoMiss the tougher schedule strength. Last year, lost competitive Bowl to Cincy (BCS this yr!), but had 3 blow-out Bowl wins before that (two over other Sun Belt'ers). One real negative...Golden Eagles had a mid-season run where they went 0-5 both SU and ATS--good teams don't do that!! But on the positive, did not allow 100 ryg or give up a rushing TD over the final four games! Troy missed the Bowl party last year, but had a blow-out win the previous year. Troy finished the season by out-stat'ing its opponent 8-0...the line opened at -3 and perhaps the reason the public has taken Troy to -4.5 (big line move like Memphis!!)?? Really hate to back a first-year Coach after yesterday (1-2, win was dog CSU), but we have to think a team whose QB was 3-deep on the depth chart (before mid-season injuries) is not a team to lay 4.5 with against an opponent that has monstrous lines on both sides of the ball. We'll grab the points with the Golden Eagles, SOUTHERN MISS + 4.5 *1* LEAN
Next Post...Tues POINSETTIA BOWL..6:30'ish
As mentioned, "good bets lose everyday, bad bets win everyday". Assuming you watched Navy/WF, even the staunchest Wake supporter has to admit, that cover was a gift. And also mentioned the importance of coaching; Navy (1st year Coach) ahead 13-0 and driving (on the ground!) near the end of the half, throws a pass that's intercepted inside the 5! Momentum change..long drive..TD! And the final covering TD run and ensuing Navy drive...you saw it, enough said...
As for BYU..the top pick..3 missed FG's, 3 TO's (yes I know AZ had 3 too!), 10 penalties (2 scoring killers), and a pass defense that got burnt all night! And the OBVIOUS BYU-TD reversal of the early fumble that CLEARLY occurred before the whistle! Still had a chance for a cover at the end but attempted the FG (hit upright!) instead of going for the TD. Something Navy did as well...
That's the way the Ball Bounces, as I said no excuses, but just as easily could've been winners. Hopefully will win a few of the close ones with the Bounces! Can only say if the same games were played today, I'd pick those same 2 teams! As for Memphis, sheer embarrassment. On to Southern Miss and Troy..GOOD LUCK!!
NEW ORLEANS BOWL: Should figure to be a similar game to Yesterday's ColoSt-Fresno as far as the actual match-up, but don't expect as much scoring. Two senior-heavy teams, Troy stayed home last year while SoMiss went Bowling. Both teams finished the season strongly, SoMiss the tougher schedule strength. Last year, lost competitive Bowl to Cincy (BCS this yr!), but had 3 blow-out Bowl wins before that (two over other Sun Belt'ers). One real negative...Golden Eagles had a mid-season run where they went 0-5 both SU and ATS--good teams don't do that!! But on the positive, did not allow 100 ryg or give up a rushing TD over the final four games! Troy missed the Bowl party last year, but had a blow-out win the previous year. Troy finished the season by out-stat'ing its opponent 8-0...the line opened at -3 and perhaps the reason the public has taken Troy to -4.5 (big line move like Memphis!!)?? Really hate to back a first-year Coach after yesterday (1-2, win was dog CSU), but we have to think a team whose QB was 3-deep on the depth chart (before mid-season injuries) is not a team to lay 4.5 with against an opponent that has monstrous lines on both sides of the ball. We'll grab the points with the Golden Eagles, SOUTHERN MISS + 4.5 *1* LEAN
Next Post...Tues POINSETTIA BOWL..6:30'ish
maybe you misunderstood me. I did not mean to sound like a hater. i did watch the NAVY game and yes it should have covered
I am just saying a 75% system I hope its true. Remember you said if its less than 75% its a failure i love Troy at -3
0
Posted:
#38
I knew that Daniel, was just joking...
As stated when I 1st posted, this System is weighted to identify lines it considers to be in error. And how much in error...
As most oddsmakers set lines leaned toward the fave knowing that's the side the betting public usually takes...the values are most often found with the dog. Not always, but yes more dogs are gonna hit the parameters of the System...especially since intangibles play such a large part here and the teams are generally unfamiliar with the opponent.
But I do promise you, you'll get some Bowl favorites in here!!
0
Posted:
#40
And I was against Fresno and Troy...on Navy and BYU...
I am not sure what your point is. My System has no way of knowing who or what game the public or smart money is on; it only gives me a line value in comparison with the real line. I don't check to see...but usually it's a pretty safe assumption that when a line moves 2.5 (memphis), 2 (troy) the public is moving it.
Excuse me if I'm missing something here...just not sure of your point?
0
Posted:
#42
I could care less who is or is not the public team. They'll win some, they'll lose some. As I said, what I use just comes up with comparative numbers...which takes the bias and subjectivity out of the equation...
How many Ohio St. fans and alumni bet OSU weekly, whether the line is -8 or -10? They're gonna bet 'em regardless. Same with Notre Dame. And USC, Fla...virtually all the big schools with large fan-base. Does that mean it's a good bet or there is (not) value?Linesmakers know that...
0
Posted:
#45
Quote Originally Posted by BucBacker:
i
And I was against Fresno and Troy...on Navy and BYU...
I am not sure what your point is. My System has no way of knowing who or what game the public or smart money is on; it only gives me a line value in comparison with the real line. I don't check to see...but usually it's a pretty safe assumption that when a line moves 2.5 (memphis), 2 (troy) the public is moving it.
Excuse me if I'm missing something here...just not sure of your point?
good job on USM but did take a bonehead play by troy or else that game could have been out of hand again your 2 wins are leans and the 3 losse are on the 75% system. I am interested in this miracle system. It should be 1-2 (Navy). But with a system that is claimed to be 75% most of these games should be no sweaters
0
Posted:
#46
Allin--you obviously no nothing about betting football and are relatively new at it. To think Bowl Games are gonna be "no sweaters" is assinine. To date there have been 5 games..which the "cover" was questionable in 4 of (except USF-Memphis) with 2 minutes to play! Not gonna find many "no sweaters"...
And you say So Miss was lucky? Maybe they were, but you were bashing when we lost a game we should have won. Footballs are oblong...take funny bounces you know...guess you just want to throw jabs whether a win or a loss?
I never claimed a "miracle" system, simply a winning one. Many games left...but if you want a miracle system that produces "no sweaters" better start trying to develop your own. No one on this site has one...and I never claimed to...
0
Posted:
#47
Quote Originally Posted by BucBacker:
Allin--you obviously no nothing about betting football and are relatively new at it. To think Bowl Games are gonna be "no sweaters" is assinine. To date there have been 5 games..which the "cover" was questionable in 4 of (except USF-Memphis) with 2 minutes to play! Not gonna find many "no sweaters"...
And you say So Miss was lucky? Maybe they were, but you were bashing when we lost a game we should have won. Footballs are oblong...take funny bounces you know...guess you just want to throw jabs whether a win or a loss?
I never claimed a "miracle" system, simply a winning one. Many games left...but if you want a miracle system that produces "no sweaters" better start trying to develop your own. No one on this site has one...and I never claimed to...
I know a guy I have been with a year now and he is the only who ever wins has made me a lot of money
0
Posted:
#48
Congrats--if he's making you a ton of money, why are you even on here looking for other picks? Turn your computer off, take his plays, and go to the Bank with 'em. Why waste your time searching in cyberspace for a miracle system when you already have one making you lots of money? Don't even bother to read my (or anyone else's) opinions and picks...stick with his...
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