Posted:
#51
REDDOG.... GOOD WORK
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Basketball over / under system
, great job, keep it that way!
Posted:
#57
Quote Originally Posted by calinreddog:
Tonight picks (only NCAAB):
citdl-appst over 136
sam-furm over 114.5
but-det over 117
clest-illch over 127
midtn-den over 119
webst-nocol over 138.5
sclar-sd over 115.5
pac-ucriv over 115
wgton-cal under 152
frsno-hav over 132
I am 8-1 right now and still have one more left to play (frsno-hav).
I'd love to make it 9-1... 
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Posted:
#60
Quote Originally Posted by robomotion:
REDDOG: You are the MAN.......one small ???
mts-den 51+63=114
wash-cal 71+86=157
i am not trying to diminish your accomplishment
Yes, you're right, sorry.
I was expecting to hit 6 out of 10 and I was just going to write to you that my capping method does 60% of the job and the rest is up to Lady Luck...
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Posted:
#61
So:
citdl-appst over 136 74-72
sam-furm over 114.5 57-63
but-det over 117 66-61
clest-illch over 127 66-63
midtn-den over 119 51-63
webst-nocol over 138.5 82-76
sclar-sd over 115.5 64-62
pac-ucriv over 115 63-66
wgton-cal under 152 71-86
frsno-hav over 132 halftime 10-34
7-3 win-loss
Overall record: NBA 15-10 (60%) NCAAB 45-24 (65.2%)
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Posted:
#68
Calin
Is this the method you use to get the totals????
Is this the method you use to get the totals????
For the BOS/PHI game:
Points For Points Against
BOS 101.3 91.4
PHI 96.4 95.8
TOT 197.7 187.2
off / def = 197.7/187.2 = 1.056
total projected = 197.7 * 1.056 = 208.79 (you have shown above 194)
Another example for the defensive side the Milwuakee New Jersey Game:
Points For Points Against
MIL 98.3 98.1
NJN 97.9 101
TOT 196.2 199.1
off / def = 196.2/199.1 = 0.985
total projected = 199.1 * 0.985 = 196.2 (you have shown above 186)
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Posted:
#69
Quote Originally Posted by jbrent95:
Calin,
Have you finished tweaking you model? Do you mind sharing your spreadsheet?
There's no need for a spreadsheet.
Just add the numbers and use your logic when comparing them.
The key to good under play is basically the defensive number and the key to good over plays are both offensive and defensive. There's no strict rule about differences. For NCAAB especially the differences become significant as a percentage of the total set by the bookie. Add the smallest numbers and the biggest numbers, compare them with the total line and draw a conclusion. Based on the differences found are you willing to risk an amount of money on that?
Sorry, but there's no strict rule or complicated spreadsheet to do that.
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Posted:
#70
Quote Originally Posted by butta01:
Calin
Is this the method you use to get the totals????
Calin
Is this the method you use to get the totals????
For the BOS/PHI game:
Points For Points Against
BOS 101.3 91.4
PHI 96.4 95.8
TOT 197.7 187.2
off / def = 197.7/187.2 = 1.056
total projected = 197.7 * 1.056 = 208.79 (you have shown above 194)
Another example for the defensive side the Milwuakee New Jersey Game:
Points For Points Against
MIL 98.3 98.1
NJN 97.9 101
TOT 196.2 199.1
off / def = 196.2/199.1 = 0.985
total projected = 199.1 * 0.985 = 196.2 (you have shown above 186)
No I don't use that anymore.
Take a look at my post above.
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Posted:
#71
Quote Originally Posted by jbrent95:
Calin,
Have you finished tweaking you model? Do you mind sharing your spreadsheet?
Let's take a look at tor-no tonight, total line set at 185. Take the four numbers (points for and against for both teams) and arrange starting with the smallest number and finishing with the biggest. Something like that:
91.0 95.4 96.2 100.2
Add the smallest 91.0+95.4=186.4-185=1.4
Add the biggest 96.2+100.2=196.2-185=11.2
If we add the 2 differences 1.4+11.2=12.6 points over the total line, that's kind of 6.8% over the line. A small difference but I consider it enough to risk 1 unit on over, so I'll take over 185.
Avoid games of rivalry or games where there are strong motivational factors involved. Avoid extremely high totals (set around 230).
No spreadsheet needed.
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