One variation I still recall and I continue to use on soccer as well is:
Compute offensive avg = pf avg road team + pf avg home team
Compute defensive avg = pa avg road team + pa avg home team
Compare the offensive avg and the defensive avg with the total set by the bookie and take the biggest distance or difference if the odds are in your favour.
Example:
dal - den
Offensive avg = 97.4 + 109.4 = 206.8
Defensive avg = 99.7 + 99.8 = 199.5
Total set by the bookie = 206.5
Distance for offensive avg = 0.3
Distance for defensive avg = -7.0
We should pick the under.
I picked the good example this time...
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Quote Originally Posted by calinreddog:
One variation I still recall and I continue to use on soccer as well is:
Compute offensive avg = pf avg road team + pf avg home team
Compute defensive avg = pa avg road team + pa avg home team
Compare the offensive avg and the defensive avg with the total set by the bookie and take the biggest distance or difference if the odds are in your favour.
calinreddog,Any chance you could explain in more detail how you pick the o/u plays?
Yes Patrick, I'll use an example from today's games: lal at nyk (total listed at 225) First, we'll write the points for and against for both teams when plyaing away (for the Lakers) and when playing at home (for the Knicks): points for points against lal 107.5 100.0 nyk 107.5 106.7 Then we'll the points for and the points against to get an idea about the pace of the game. Total points for = 107.5 + 107.5 = 215 Total points against = 100.0 + 106.7 = 206.7 Third, to see if the game is going to be much or less offensive we divide the total offensive (total points for) by the total defensive (total points against) and that is: off/def = 215 / 206.7 = 1.04 If this number (pace) it's higher than 1.00 the game is going to be rather offensive than defensive and that means that both teams are focused on scoring. If we have that situation we will use only the offensive numbers to estimate the total. But if the number is below 1.00 the game will not be so offensive so we will use only the defensive numbers to estimate the total. In this case (offensive game) we'll multiply the total offensive (total points for) by the off / def fraction and that means: 215 * 1.04 = 223.6 Compared to the 225 total line there is a small difference of -1.4 points, but that too little. So, in this case the total line set by the bookie is very sharp and I wouldn't take a play based on a difference of only 1.4 points. The total will be around 215-220 but is too hard to say it will go over or under 225, so there's no play for this game.
Hello from where these numbers points for & against ?
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Quote Originally Posted by calinreddog:
Quote Originally Posted by PatrickBateman:
calinreddog,Any chance you could explain in more detail how you pick the o/u plays?
Yes Patrick, I'll use an example from today's games: lal at nyk (total listed at 225) First, we'll write the points for and against for both teams when plyaing away (for the Lakers) and when playing at home (for the Knicks): points for points against lal 107.5 100.0 nyk 107.5 106.7 Then we'll the points for and the points against to get an idea about the pace of the game. Total points for = 107.5 + 107.5 = 215 Total points against = 100.0 + 106.7 = 206.7 Third, to see if the game is going to be much or less offensive we divide the total offensive (total points for) by the total defensive (total points against) and that is: off/def = 215 / 206.7 = 1.04 If this number (pace) it's higher than 1.00 the game is going to be rather offensive than defensive and that means that both teams are focused on scoring. If we have that situation we will use only the offensive numbers to estimate the total. But if the number is below 1.00 the game will not be so offensive so we will use only the defensive numbers to estimate the total. In this case (offensive game) we'll multiply the total offensive (total points for) by the off / def fraction and that means: 215 * 1.04 = 223.6 Compared to the 225 total line there is a small difference of -1.4 points, but that too little. So, in this case the total line set by the bookie is very sharp and I wouldn't take a play based on a difference of only 1.4 points. The total will be around 215-220 but is too hard to say it will go over or under 225, so there's no play for this game.
Hello from where these numbers points for & against ?
New to this thread and was wondering if anyone has back-checked this system? Sounds interesting. I am getting some data ready from the past few years and will try it.
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New to this thread and was wondering if anyone has back-checked this system? Sounds interesting. I am getting some data ready from the past few years and will try it.
Was able to set up the data for this year (2018-2019) for the NBA. Seems to work in reverse. Adding the PF/PA pairs and dividing by 2 and when greater than the line+8 for the TOTAL, picked the UNDER 57%. Still work to be done and can't forget to figure in thing like injuries, etc. Anyone will to work with me, send PM. I do have the data for the last few years for the NBA and doing calculations to see how a formula works for a whole year takes only a few minutes. Anyone interested?
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Was able to set up the data for this year (2018-2019) for the NBA. Seems to work in reverse. Adding the PF/PA pairs and dividing by 2 and when greater than the line+8 for the TOTAL, picked the UNDER 57%. Still work to be done and can't forget to figure in thing like injuries, etc. Anyone will to work with me, send PM. I do have the data for the last few years for the NBA and doing calculations to see how a formula works for a whole year takes only a few minutes. Anyone interested?
Counting OT game (in other words 4Q+OT), there are only 11 more OVERs than Unders. 341-330 Using mostly odds from Covers.com. But I hear ya, I take more OVERs than UNDERs. Not too many teams play defense like they did just 5 or 6 years ago. Everything's offense now. Guess it's more entertaining for the fans.
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Counting OT game (in other words 4Q+OT), there are only 11 more OVERs than Unders. 341-330 Using mostly odds from Covers.com. But I hear ya, I take more OVERs than UNDERs. Not too many teams play defense like they did just 5 or 6 years ago. Everything's offense now. Guess it's more entertaining for the fans.
Ive been following this post and its quite interesting. Very cool that it was picked back up, as it was originally active in 08/09 with the inspiration from REDDOG who abruptly stopped posting. I would love to see more discussion about red's original ideas and formulas and about whether or not it is possible to consistently beat the O/U by averaging metrics of both teams.
Quote Originally Posted by NavyDog:
Was able to set up the data for this year (2018-2019) for the NBA. Seems to work in reverse. Adding the PF/PA pairs and dividing by 2 and when greater than the line+8 for the TOTAL, picked the UNDER 57%. Still work to be done and can't forget to figure in thing like injuries, etc. Anyone will to work with me, send PM. I do have the data for the last few years for the NBA and doing calculations to see how a formula works for a whole year takes only a few minutes. Anyone interested?
I would love to talk stats and work around this topic!
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Ive been following this post and its quite interesting. Very cool that it was picked back up, as it was originally active in 08/09 with the inspiration from REDDOG who abruptly stopped posting. I would love to see more discussion about red's original ideas and formulas and about whether or not it is possible to consistently beat the O/U by averaging metrics of both teams.
Quote Originally Posted by NavyDog:
Was able to set up the data for this year (2018-2019) for the NBA. Seems to work in reverse. Adding the PF/PA pairs and dividing by 2 and when greater than the line+8 for the TOTAL, picked the UNDER 57%. Still work to be done and can't forget to figure in thing like injuries, etc. Anyone will to work with me, send PM. I do have the data for the last few years for the NBA and doing calculations to see how a formula works for a whole year takes only a few minutes. Anyone interested?
I would love to talk stats and work around this topic!
Just follow the system, it works. Been working for me..never fell below 50% end of 2018 until now. Ive been using the system to also give me an idea of how the game should play out and playing games out of this system,.which sometimes works. Which is why it’s called gambling.
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Just follow the system, it works. Been working for me..never fell below 50% end of 2018 until now. Ive been using the system to also give me an idea of how the game should play out and playing games out of this system,.which sometimes works. Which is why it’s called gambling.
Hey , msg me and maybe we could work together. Been working on a total system for a while now. Depending on the criteria used, found some cases hitting a bit better than 55%. Would like to fine tune that to see if we could do better.
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Hey , msg me and maybe we could work together. Been working on a total system for a while now. Depending on the criteria used, found some cases hitting a bit better than 55%. Would like to fine tune that to see if we could do better.
you guys must be young-ins. basketball on paper by dean oliver copyright 2004. he explains how to evaluate teams and players using a formula he came up with. i tweaked it had been beating the books up until about 7 years ago. espn ran an article about the formula 2 years ago. only thing its worth now is predicting lines for every college hoops game within a couple points. this year applied it to nba, as it never worked before, filtering out x amount of games and did very well last year starting from the all star break til about a few weeks before the end of the season. its stored on a thumb drive and just have to punch in certain numbers and hit 57 pct sides and totals. can wait for next season.
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you guys must be young-ins. basketball on paper by dean oliver copyright 2004. he explains how to evaluate teams and players using a formula he came up with. i tweaked it had been beating the books up until about 7 years ago. espn ran an article about the formula 2 years ago. only thing its worth now is predicting lines for every college hoops game within a couple points. this year applied it to nba, as it never worked before, filtering out x amount of games and did very well last year starting from the all star break til about a few weeks before the end of the season. its stored on a thumb drive and just have to punch in certain numbers and hit 57 pct sides and totals. can wait for next season.
thanks
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