Posted:
#101
09.02.09
NCAAB
furm-elcol over 122
murst-eill over 126.5
kan-misso under 152.5
aupea-tntch under 157
loymd-siena under 145.5
0
Basketball over / under system
Posted:
#102
Calin,
Where do you get your stats? Using your system I had Loyola/Siena at 142.95 and the books have it at 144.5 so that results in only a difference of 1.55. I agree with the rest of your plays...
For NBA I only saw one game and that was PHX/PHI under 209...
Also just a question about hockey... I have NY/NJ at 5.32 vs the 5.5 from the books so that would be a no play correct? Also the Mont/Calg game at 6.26 vs the 5.5 which would be a play but the over is at -125 so it becomes a no play? Is that all correct based on how your system?
Thanks for your help!
0
Posted:
#103
Quote Originally Posted by jhonea999:
Calin,
Where do you get your stats? Using your system I had Loyola/Siena at 142.95 and the books have it at 144.5 so that results in only a difference of 1.55. I agree with the rest of your plays...
For NBA I only saw one game and that was PHX/PHI under 209...
Also just a question about hockey... I have NY/NJ at 5.32 vs the 5.5 from the books so that would be a no play correct? Also the Mont/Calg game at 6.26 vs the 5.5 which would be a play but the over is at -125 so it becomes a no play? Is that all correct based on how your system?
Thanks for your help!
I get all thestats from here, Covers.com, scores and odds.
For loymd-siena:(https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncb/matchups/g6_summary_10.html)
loymd away: 65.2 for 71.9 against
siena home: 78.2 for 64.7 against
We should expect an average of 140 points. When I wagered I got 145.5 line so -5.5 difference.
NHL
ny away 2.38 for 3.04 against
nj home 3.12 for 2.69 against, average=5.61. At an expected average of 5.61 goals / game the fair odds should be -104 for under 5.5 and +104 for over 5.5. I didn't find some good odds so yes it's no bet for me.
mon-cal average is 5.95 that means fair odds -120 for over and +120 for under.
0
Posted:
#105
Quote Originally Posted by jhonea999:
Alright so I was looking at their season average points for and against instead of home/away averages. Thats where the difference was, sorry.
So are you on the over on the mon-cal game? and what about the NBA PHX/PHI under?
For mon-cal game I don't have value for total at my bookie and I'll take Calgary to win in regulation time (odds offer value for this bet). But I'll take the over at NYR-NJ. At the actual odds is a good bet (I have +115 at my bookie) and Rangers on the moneyline.
For NBA, yes I'll take the under 211 at PHX-PHI game.
Good luck!
0
Posted:
#106
Calin,
Just wondering about the saturday games (43 NCAA BB). Was your minimum scoring difference 8 to 10 or did you lower it to 6 or so? Have you kept track of ranges of games and how they have done... for instance games with 5 to 10 point difference have gone 52% and 10+ difference have gone 59% or something along those lines? If you have not I am going to start tracking that today...
Thanks for your help.
0
Posted:
#107
Quote Originally Posted by jhonea999:
Calin,
Just wondering about the saturday games (43 NCAA BB). Was your minimum scoring difference 8 to 10 or did you lower it to 6 or so? Have you kept track of ranges of games and how they have done... for instance games with 5 to 10 point difference have gone 52% and 10+ difference have gone 59% or something along those lines? If you have not I am going to start tracking that today...
Thanks for your help.
Yes you should start tracking that starting today 'cause I didn't (
).
You're right, something like that could be very useful. Saturday I worked too long to compute the averages so I haven't kept record of anything...
0
Posted:
#108
One thing I remember from saturday's 43 games. I took all the games where the difference was at leats 5% of the total line listed by the bookie. If the line was 120 and I found an average with 6 points lower I took that play. So at a difference of 5% of the total listed I went 23-20. Not good...
0
Posted:
#110
furm-elcol over 122 W
murst-eill over 126.5 L
kan-misso under 152.5 W
aupea-tntch under 157 L
loymd-siena under 145.5 W
PHX-PHI under 211 W
HAHA of course the two games I wasn't with you on hit so I was 2-2 on the night! Had I stuck to it I would have been 4-2. Anyways I will post the range results tomorrow... I figured 5% to 7%, 7% to 10%, 10%+
0
Posted:
#114
Calin let me know if I am mistaken on any of these games. I am not listing the games that are 4% or less.
4% to 6%
NBA - CLE/IND under
NBA - SAC/DAL under
NBA - OKC/LAL under
NCAA - MIAMI OH/Cent Mich over
NCAA - Wright St/Loyola-Chi over
6% to 8%
NBA - WAS/ATL under
NCAA - Missouri St/Wichita St over
8% to 10%
NBA -NYN/GSW under (may avoid this game since the line is 233, what do you think?)
0
Posted:
#115
Quote Originally Posted by jhonea999:
Calin let me know if I am mistaken on any of these games. I am not listing the games that are 4% or less.
4% to 6%
NBA - CLE/IND under
NBA - SAC/DAL under
NBA - OKC/LAL under
NCAA - MIAMI OH/Cent Mich over
NCAA - Wright St/Loyola-Chi over
6% to 8%
NBA - WAS/ATL under
NCAA - Missouri St/Wichita St over
8% to 10%
NBA -NYN/GSW under (may avoid this game since the line is 233, what do you think?)
Take it (NY-GS)!
You're doing just fine!
0
Posted:
#116
It has become kind of boring to me to post picks every day so I won't do it anymore.
I think I have a system here. For NCAAB I picked 118 games and the results were 70-48 and that means 59%. It would have been nice to have 1000 games but I think the system will continue to work around 57-58%.
System is simple:
Write all games (NBA and NCAAB) scheduled for one day. Compute the average points we should expect and that is:
(PF home + PA home + PF away + PA away) / 2.
From all the games scheduled pick 5 for NBA and 5 for NCAAB with the biggest differences between the average we expect and the total line listed by the bookie. Of course, the first condition would be to have at least 5 games scheduled that day.
The basic assumption for this system is that in most of the cases the points tend to their average value, so we are not supposed to make a mistake when we pick totals that are too far from their average value.
No secret, nothing special, just common sense. It's normal to be that way.
There's no need for hours of work, information and judgements about a particular matchup. All you need it's 4 numbers and less than a minute to compute their mean.
That should produce over time a 57-58% success rate and that means profit in the long run.
Good luck!
0
Posted:
#117
can someone confirm these are the correct numbers for this NBA game.
You guys are not getting the overall PF and PA numbers but rather the Washington Away offense and defense totals (PF and PA) and the Atlanta Home PF and PA numbers, correct?
Example for today’s NBA game:
Away: 92.5, 102.6
ATL
home: 100.1, 95.2
(92.5 + 102.6 + 100.1 + 95.2) / 2 = (390.4 / 2) = 195.2
Bookie Line = 200
Differential of 4.8 points.
thx
0
Posted:
#118
Quote Originally Posted by ColdBeerHere:
can someone confirm these are the correct numbers for this NBA game.
You guys are not getting the overall PF and PA numbers but rather the Washington Away offense and defense totals (PF and PA) and the Atlanta Home PF and PA numbers, correct?
Example for today’s NBA game:
Away: 92.5, 102.6
ATL
home: 100.1, 95.2
(92.5 + 102.6 + 100.1 + 95.2) / 2 = (390.4 / 2) = 195.2
Bookie Line = 200
Differential of 4.8 points.
thx
That's correct, you need WAS away points and ATL home points. You got it right.
0
Posted:
#119
I appreciate everything you've done, but have a quick question.
When finding and adding up the total points for and against the home/away teams, do you look at the schedule and add it from each game over the season? Or are you finding the average for both home and away points for/against and then dividing by 2?
Is this the site that you get all your numbers? or do you have another place you use for stats?
When finding and adding up the total points for and against the home/away teams, do you look at the schedule and add it from each game over the season? Or are you finding the average for both home and away points for/against and then dividing by 2?
Is this the site that you get all your numbers? or do you have another place you use for stats?
0
Posted:
#124
91.5 + 106.8 + 108.9 + 99.3 = 406.5 divided by 2 = 203.25
Total Expected points = 203.5
Book o/u line = 219
Differential = 15.75
Total offense points =200.4
Total defense points = 206.1
offense/defense = .97
(not sure why that was needed really)
Then I even ran the numbers for when Oklahoma City is a >10point underdog against the numbers for when the Lakers are >10 point favorites.
That still came out to a 14.95 difference between expected points from our numbers and the sports book.
Hope someone sees this.
Total Expected points = 203.5
Book o/u line = 219
Differential = 15.75
Total offense points =200.4
Total defense points = 206.1
offense/defense = .97
(not sure why that was needed really)
Then I even ran the numbers for when Oklahoma City is a >10point underdog against the numbers for when the Lakers are >10 point favorites.
That still came out to a 14.95 difference between expected points from our numbers and the sports book.
Hope someone sees this.
0
Hot Forum Topics
