I have been using since yesterday a method to pick totals for basketball games based only on 4 numbers and that are the points for and against for both teams. I don't look at the teams names and I don't know much about basketball, I just noticed that a very important factor for the total is the pace of the game. So I started searching for a method to estimate the pace of scoring based on the offensive and defensive averages.
The results for the first 2 days are:
Friday night NBA 5-1 NCAAB 3-0
Saturday night NBA 3-2 NCAAB 18-9
So, overall: NBA 8-3 (72.7%) and NCAAB 21-9 (70%).
I will continue to work with this system and post the picks everyday for NBA and NCAAB.
Picks for today are:
NCAAB
PENNST-MCHST OVER 140
STJOE-DAYT OVER 125
CAN-RIDER UNDER 140
IOWA-ILL OVER 114
VIRG-DUKE OVER 145.5
SOFLA-STJ OVER 128
NBA
CLE-DET OVER 180
OKC-SAC UNDER 215.5
Good luck!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I have been using since yesterday a method to pick totals for basketball games based only on 4 numbers and that are the points for and against for both teams. I don't look at the teams names and I don't know much about basketball, I just noticed that a very important factor for the total is the pace of the game. So I started searching for a method to estimate the pace of scoring based on the offensive and defensive averages.
The results for the first 2 days are:
Friday night NBA 5-1 NCAAB 3-0
Saturday night NBA 3-2 NCAAB 18-9
So, overall: NBA 8-3 (72.7%) and NCAAB 21-9 (70%).
I will continue to work with this system and post the picks everyday for NBA and NCAAB.
I've got an over and under system in NCAA that I'm currently tracking but I can't find where to look at previous scores on the games I will need it to have the line and the end score. Covers and wagertracker both are good but when I go back further than a couple weeks it starts missing info and the scores aren't there. I tracked this system back since Jan 17th and it's 51-17 so far but I will need to do more back tracking like from the beginning of the season or even last years totals. Let me know if you want to help me back track this new system I'm working on.
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I've got an over and under system in NCAA that I'm currently tracking but I can't find where to look at previous scores on the games I will need it to have the line and the end score. Covers and wagertracker both are good but when I go back further than a couple weeks it starts missing info and the scores aren't there. I tracked this system back since Jan 17th and it's 51-17 so far but I will need to do more back tracking like from the beginning of the season or even last years totals. Let me know if you want to help me back track this new system I'm working on.
calinreddog my bb system is picking almost the same games as yours. I noticed especially in nba it almost always takes high totals und & vice versa. Let's see how it goes
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calinreddog my bb system is picking almost the same games as yours. I noticed especially in nba it almost always takes high totals und & vice versa. Let's see how it goes
Any chance you could explain in more detail how you pick the o/u plays?
Yes Patrick, I'll use an example from today's games:
lal at nyk (total listed at 225)
First, we'll write the points for and against for both teams when plyaing away (for the Lakers) and when playing at home (for the Knicks):
points for points against
lal 107.5 100.0
nyk 107.5 106.7
Then we'll the points for and the points against to get an idea about the pace of the game.
Total points for = 107.5 + 107.5 = 215
Total points against = 100.0 + 106.7 = 206.7
Third, to see if the game is going to be much or less offensive we divide the total offensive (total points for) by the total defensive (total points against) and that is:
off/def = 215 / 206.7 = 1.04
If this number (pace) it's higher than 1.00 the game is going to be rather offensive than defensive and that means that both teams are focused on scoring. If we have that situation we will use only the offensive numbers to estimate the total. But if the number is below 1.00 the game will not be so offensive so we will use only the defensive numbers to estimate the total.
In this case (offensive game) we'll multiply the total offensive (total points for) by the off / def fraction and that means:
215 * 1.04 = 223.6
Compared to the 225 total line there is a small difference of -1.4 points, but that too little.
So, in this case the total line set by the bookie is very sharp and I wouldn't take a play based on a difference of only 1.4 points. The total will be around 215-220 but is too hard to say it will go over or under 225, so there's no play for this game.
Any chance you could explain in more detail how you pick the o/u plays?
Yes Patrick, I'll use an example from today's games:
lal at nyk (total listed at 225)
First, we'll write the points for and against for both teams when plyaing away (for the Lakers) and when playing at home (for the Knicks):
points for points against
lal 107.5 100.0
nyk 107.5 106.7
Then we'll the points for and the points against to get an idea about the pace of the game.
Total points for = 107.5 + 107.5 = 215
Total points against = 100.0 + 106.7 = 206.7
Third, to see if the game is going to be much or less offensive we divide the total offensive (total points for) by the total defensive (total points against) and that is:
off/def = 215 / 206.7 = 1.04
If this number (pace) it's higher than 1.00 the game is going to be rather offensive than defensive and that means that both teams are focused on scoring. If we have that situation we will use only the offensive numbers to estimate the total. But if the number is below 1.00 the game will not be so offensive so we will use only the defensive numbers to estimate the total.
In this case (offensive game) we'll multiply the total offensive (total points for) by the off / def fraction and that means:
215 * 1.04 = 223.6
Compared to the 225 total line there is a small difference of -1.4 points, but that too little.
So, in this case the total line set by the bookie is very sharp and I wouldn't take a play based on a difference of only 1.4 points. The total will be around 215-220 but is too hard to say it will go over or under 225, so there's no play for this game.
The game will be rather offensive so we will use to estimate the total only the offensive numbers (total offensive):
total projected = 192.4 * 1.031 = 198.36
The total set by the bookie is 187 and we estimated a total of 198.36 points. That means we estimated a total with 11.36 points over the total line so we have a good play for the over.
I'll take over 187.
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Let's take another example (por at no)
points for points against
por 95.8 96.6
nor 96.6 90.0
totals 192.4 186.6
off / def = 192.4 / 186.8 = 1.031
The game will be rather offensive so we will use to estimate the total only the offensive numbers (total offensive):
total projected = 192.4 * 1.031 = 198.36
The total set by the bookie is 187 and we estimated a total of 198.36 points. That means we estimated a total with 11.36 points over the total line so we have a good play for the over.
Interesting numbers, how big of a difference do you need to see in order to have a good play? If 11.36 is good,and 1.4 too small, where is the cutoff?
I am thinking at 6-7 points at least. That's up to you. How fast can 2 basketball teams score 6 points? I am more comfortable if I find differences higher tha 10 points...
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Quote Originally Posted by jhudd70:
Interesting numbers, how big of a difference do you need to see in order to have a good play? If 11.36 is good,and 1.4 too small, where is the cutoff?
I am thinking at 6-7 points at least. That's up to you. How fast can 2 basketball teams score 6 points? I am more comfortable if I find differences higher tha 10 points...
And I'll use an example where I should use only the defensive numbers (mem at was):
points for points against
mem 92.4 103.0
was 95.7 99.6
totals 188.1 202.6
off / def = 188.1 / 202.6 = 0.928, so we'll use the defensive number (202.6)
total projected = 202.6 * 0.928 = 188.01
The total line set by the bookie is 192.5 so we have a difference of -4.5 points, but from my point of view that's not enough for a good play ( think how manny seconds need 2 basketball teams to score 5 points...).
So the total would be around 188 but it's hard to say it won't go over 192.5 so there's no play for me.
As a general fact, I think in NBA total lines are much sharper than in NCAAB and that's the reason we can find more good plays in NCAAB games rather than in NBA games.
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And I'll use an example where I should use only the defensive numbers (mem at was):
points for points against
mem 92.4 103.0
was 95.7 99.6
totals 188.1 202.6
off / def = 188.1 / 202.6 = 0.928, so we'll use the defensive number (202.6)
total projected = 202.6 * 0.928 = 188.01
The total line set by the bookie is 192.5 so we have a difference of -4.5 points, but from my point of view that's not enough for a good play ( think how manny seconds need 2 basketball teams to score 5 points...).
So the total would be around 188 but it's hard to say it won't go over 192.5 so there's no play for me.
As a general fact, I think in NBA total lines are much sharper than in NCAAB and that's the reason we can find more good plays in NCAAB games rather than in NBA games.
calinreddog, just run the numbers for some ncaab games tonight and unless i'm working it out wrong all the games i looked at will all be overs and by a huge margin!!!!!, basically nba numbers!!
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calinreddog, just run the numbers for some ncaab games tonight and unless i'm working it out wrong all the games i looked at will all be overs and by a huge margin!!!!!, basically nba numbers!!
calinreddog, just run the numbers for some ncaab games tonight and unless i'm working it out wrong all the games i looked at will all be overs and by a huge margin!!!!!, basically nba numbers!!
You are aproximately right. By now I only found one good under play and 5 good over plays. But I'll be posting later the projected total (according to my formula) on every NCAAB game that has listed the total line.
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Quote Originally Posted by edmondsj:
calinreddog, just run the numbers for some ncaab games tonight and unless i'm working it out wrong all the games i looked at will all be overs and by a huge margin!!!!!, basically nba numbers!!
You are aproximately right. By now I only found one good under play and 5 good over plays. But I'll be posting later the projected total (according to my formula) on every NCAAB game that has listed the total line.
Played SAC-PHO under, CHAR-UTAH over, and PORT-N.O. over last night. Those were the biggest differences between your numbers and the actual total. Went 3-0 last night. Keep it up, you might be on to something here!
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Played SAC-PHO under, CHAR-UTAH over, and PORT-N.O. over last night. Those were the biggest differences between your numbers and the actual total. Went 3-0 last night. Keep it up, you might be on to something here!
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