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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    3/6/13 THE TRUE STORY BEHIND THE THEORY

    «First Previous 456 ... 8910 Next Last»
    jlt9889
    Buckfan02
    STASH
    seaotter
    Buggsy
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    «First Previous 456 ... 8910 Next Last»
     
    jlt9889
    jlt9889
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 2:30 PM ET #76

    at www.scoresandodds.com they have the line opned at -2.  so whos line do we follow ?  some people will follow it and some wont.  i thought it was opening line and closing line only?
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    at www.scoresandodds.com they have the line opned at -2.  so whos line do we follow ?  some people will follow it and some wont.  i thought it was opening line and closing line only?
     
    Buckfan02
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 2:30 PM ET #77

    Quote Originally Posted by seaotter:

    Hey Buck, if you still have the data, I'm wondering how often the teams getting the 3, 6, or 13 won outright.  Just like last night in CBB, both teams getting the 6 points won outright.  If you don't have the data available, I can do the research, just let me know
     
    Thanks...

    If you wouldnt mind researching the SU games, I'm going to get the entire season for my numbers in the NBA

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    Quote Originally Posted by seaotter:

    Hey Buck, if you still have the data, I'm wondering how often the teams getting the 3, 6, or 13 won outright.  Just like last night in CBB, both teams getting the 6 points won outright.  If you don't have the data available, I can do the research, just let me know
     
    Thanks...

    If you wouldnt mind researching the SU games, I'm going to get the entire season for my numbers in the NBA

     
    STASH
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 2:41 PM ET #78

    BUGGSY, that was a very solid statement, thnk
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    BUGGSY, that was a very solid statement, thnk
     
    seaotter
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 2:41 PM ET #79

    Buck, okay, I can do that.  But on your picks, these teams don't really fall into the 3/6/13 because you manipulated the 3/6/13 line after it opened.  You're now appliying these teams to lines that calculate to 2/5/12, so they wouldn't apply.  Besides, just thinking about it, since we're supposed to be playing the dogs in this, shouldn't you be adding one to the 3/6/13 and getting 4/7/14, and not subtracting one and getting 2/5/12???
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    Buck, okay, I can do that.  But on your picks, these teams don't really fall into the 3/6/13 because you manipulated the 3/6/13 line after it opened.  You're now appliying these teams to lines that calculate to 2/5/12, so they wouldn't apply.  Besides, just thinking about it, since we're supposed to be playing the dogs in this, shouldn't you be adding one to the 3/6/13 and getting 4/7/14, and not subtracting one and getting 2/5/12???
     
    Buckfan02
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 2:47 PM ET #80

    No... see since I'm only looking at the final line and dont know where it opened, Im assuming it moved throughout the day, thats why I open it up +/- .5 a point to get those stats (kinda like my margin for error). As for the +1 thats just something I put in there for fun to see what would happen if you would buy a whole point and see how many that hit. 
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    No... see since I'm only looking at the final line and dont know where it opened, Im assuming it moved throughout the day, thats why I open it up +/- .5 a point to get those stats (kinda like my margin for error). As for the +1 thats just something I put in there for fun to see what would happen if you would buy a whole point and see how many that hit. 
     
    seaotter
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 2:50 PM ET #81

    Yeah, but you're buying the point on the dog, not the favorite.  So, for example, with Washington tonite, they open at 3, you buy a point on Washington, that takes the line to +4, not +2, right?
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    Yeah, but you're buying the point on the dog, not the favorite.  So, for example, with Washington tonite, they open at 3, you buy a point on Washington, that takes the line to +4, not +2, right?
     
    seaotter
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 2:53 PM ET #82

    And I understand your +/-.5.  That's a good idea to do that. I'm going to do the ML stats based on 3/6/13 +/-.5.  That should line things up with what you're doing too.
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    And I understand your +/-.5.  That's a good idea to do that. I'm going to do the ML stats based on 3/6/13 +/-.5.  That should line things up with what you're doing too.
     
    STASH
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 2:54 PM ET #83

    PayDaJuice , your correct to keep your # in order, structure is the strength of the equations, which is interior math, in this particular % rating, it cannot be overlooked, or considered a play.....
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    PayDaJuice , your correct to keep your # in order, structure is the strength of the equations, which is interior math, in this particular % rating, it cannot be overlooked, or considered a play.....
     
    Buckfan02
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 2:54 PM ET #84

    I would only but the point if it were +2 +5 or +12... if its at 3/6/13 already I leave it where it is.
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    I would only but the point if it were +2 +5 or +12... if its at 3/6/13 already I leave it where it is.
     
    Buckfan02
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 2:56 PM ET #85

    However, if the line were +3.5 6.5 or 13.5.... I would buy the .5 point at then make it 4 7 and 14. (I just always buy the hook) So my numbers are reflective of that.
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    However, if the line were +3.5 6.5 or 13.5.... I would buy the .5 point at then make it 4 7 and 14. (I just always buy the hook) So my numbers are reflective of that.
     
    Buckfan02
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 3:05 PM ET #86

    Ok... well I went back another month and added up the numbers to inlcude all of December. They are pretty much staying constant with the %'s they were for January and February. The biggest % is still Road Dogs getting +2 +5 +12 coving ATS 27 otu of 39 times the last 3 months. or 69%.
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    Ok... well I went back another month and added up the numbers to inlcude all of December. They are pretty much staying constant with the %'s they were for January and February. The biggest % is still Road Dogs getting +2 +5 +12 coving ATS 27 otu of 39 times the last 3 months. or 69%.
     
    STASH
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 3:07 PM ET #87

    TAJIKIMAN: Yes my brother! I am glad to see you jumped up on this 3/6/13 DISCUSSION, interesting, stick around, the formula's are on their way$
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    TAJIKIMAN: Yes my brother! I am glad to see you jumped up on this 3/6/13 DISCUSSION, interesting, stick around, the formula's are on their way$
     
    Buggsy
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 3:13 PM ET #88

    Quote Originally Posted by STASH:

    BUGGSY, that was a very solid statement, thnk

    Stash...no problem. anything i can do to help the board !!

    But guys, if your gonna buy the hook or full points , it's not going to fall under the peritmeters of the System .But i like the way you are thinking . alot of other cappers on covers seem to tak existing systems, and tweek them to find different trends or systems.  Who knows ,might stumble onto something

    Buck...u a math major or something ...good work !!!

    as usual   BOL to all

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    Quote Originally Posted by STASH:

    BUGGSY, that was a very solid statement, thnk

    Stash...no problem. anything i can do to help the board !!

    But guys, if your gonna buy the hook or full points , it's not going to fall under the peritmeters of the System .But i like the way you are thinking . alot of other cappers on covers seem to tak existing systems, and tweek them to find different trends or systems.  Who knows ,might stumble onto something

    Buck...u a math major or something ...good work !!!

    as usual   BOL to all

     
    jlt9889
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 3:16 PM ET #89

    so now we are going with 2/5/12 ? i dont get it .. is it closing line or opening line or both.  seems like people are just adding there own formulas by buying a hook
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    so now we are going with 2/5/12 ? i dont get it .. is it closing line or opening line or both.  seems like people are just adding there own formulas by buying a hook
     
    STASH
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 3:16 PM ET #90

    seaotter...That is the most incredible Stat I ever heard in my 23 years in the industry. EXCELLENT INFORMATION
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    seaotter...That is the most incredible Stat I ever heard in my 23 years in the industry. EXCELLENT INFORMATION
     
    papsmear
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 3:23 PM ET #91

    so all the profitable plays for today falling under these guidelines would be

    Nets +5
    Washington +3
    New York +6
    Bucks +12.5

    right?  and you should fade clippers and chicago here?  cause the are 41% winners

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    so all the profitable plays for today falling under these guidelines would be

    Nets +5
    Washington +3
    New York +6
    Bucks +12.5

    right?  and you should fade clippers and chicago here?  cause the are 41% winners

     
    Buggsy
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 3:24 PM ET #92

    Quote Originally Posted by STASH:

    PayDaJuice , your correct to keep your # in order, structure is the strength of the equations, which is interior math, in this particular % rating, it cannot be overlooked, or considered a play.....
      Well said !!!!!!
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    Quote Originally Posted by STASH:

    PayDaJuice , your correct to keep your # in order, structure is the strength of the equations, which is interior math, in this particular % rating, it cannot be overlooked, or considered a play.....
      Well said !!!!!!
     
    Buckfan02
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 3:26 PM ET #93

    Quote Originally Posted by jlt9889:

    so now we are going with 2/5/12 ? i dont get it .. is it closing line or opening line or both.  seems like people are just adding there own formulas by buying a hook

    Since I'm not sure how the 3/6/13 is exactly supposed to be played I just sorta took it and ran with it my own way. Looking back the last 3 months I found that +2 +5 and +12 have covered 69% at the time, at the line close. 27-12
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    Quote Originally Posted by jlt9889:

    so now we are going with 2/5/12 ? i dont get it .. is it closing line or opening line or both.  seems like people are just adding there own formulas by buying a hook

    Since I'm not sure how the 3/6/13 is exactly supposed to be played I just sorta took it and ran with it my own way. Looking back the last 3 months I found that +2 +5 and +12 have covered 69% at the time, at the line close. 27-12
     
    STASH
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 3:27 PM ET #94

    JLT9889, it's simply the bottom line on your ticket..LIKE TO NIGHT, WIZARDS+3...period ...if the opening line is 4.5 it plays NO FACTOR, and of  course, vice versa....
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    JLT9889, it's simply the bottom line on your ticket..LIKE TO NIGHT, WIZARDS+3...period ...if the opening line is 4.5 it plays NO FACTOR, and of  course, vice versa....
     
    STASH
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 3:39 PM ET #95

    PAPSMEAR, the only game you have that fall under the3/6/13  are the WIZARDS+3... THAT IS THE ONLY GAME  OF INTEREST, the rest have nothing to do with this, stay focus, don't shepard out...
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    PAPSMEAR, the only game you have that fall under the3/6/13  are the WIZARDS+3... THAT IS THE ONLY GAME  OF INTEREST, the rest have nothing to do with this, stay focus, don't shepard out...
     
    papsmear
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 3:43 PM ET #96

    Quote Originally Posted by STASH:

    PAPSMEAR, the only game you have that fall under the3/6/13  are the WIZARDS+3... THAT IS THE ONLY GAME  OF INTEREST, the rest have nothing to do with this, stay focus, don't shepard out...



    stash,
    i was talking about Buckfan's data.  He elaborated on the system.  I know washington is the only 3/6/13 ,that takes one eye to see, what the hell is there to lose focus on.  And bucksfan actually showed that New Jersey +5 is a stronger play than Washington +3.  According to the system anyways.  I was jsut showing the profitable plays based on his data. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by STASH:

    PAPSMEAR, the only game you have that fall under the3/6/13  are the WIZARDS+3... THAT IS THE ONLY GAME  OF INTEREST, the rest have nothing to do with this, stay focus, don't shepard out...



    stash,
    i was talking about Buckfan's data.  He elaborated on the system.  I know washington is the only 3/6/13 ,that takes one eye to see, what the hell is there to lose focus on.  And bucksfan actually showed that New Jersey +5 is a stronger play than Washington +3.  According to the system anyways.  I was jsut showing the profitable plays based on his data. 
     
    Buckfan02
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 3:44 PM ET #97

    Ok... well this is my final verdict
     
    From what I've read and seen, here is how the 3/6/13 system plays along with my twist. You bet any ROAD dog with the line OPENING at 3/6/13. With my research I have found that 2/5/12 lines also hit very well at the CLOSE. This is prolly due to vegas evening the money out on the 3/6/13 games people were betting to open. No buying hooks are anything special 3/6/13 at OPEN 2/5/12 at CLOSE.
     
    What do you think?
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    Ok... well this is my final verdict
     
    From what I've read and seen, here is how the 3/6/13 system plays along with my twist. You bet any ROAD dog with the line OPENING at 3/6/13. With my research I have found that 2/5/12 lines also hit very well at the CLOSE. This is prolly due to vegas evening the money out on the 3/6/13 games people were betting to open. No buying hooks are anything special 3/6/13 at OPEN 2/5/12 at CLOSE.
     
    What do you think?
     
    Buggsy
    Buggsy
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 3:44 PM ET #98

    Stash...the Washington game does not fall into the system because it didnt open @3 ...it opened @2 or 2.5 and was bet up to 3
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    Stash...the Washington game does not fall into the system because it didnt open @3 ...it opened @2 or 2.5 and was bet up to 3
     
    Buckfan02
    Buckfan02
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 3:50 PM ET #99

    Well... this is anything problem with the system. What book do you look at to see an open?  Look at ESPN.com It has the open at 3.
     
    https://scores.espn.go.com/nba/preview?gameId=280222005
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    Well... this is anything problem with the system. What book do you look at to see an open?  Look at ESPN.com It has the open at 3.
     
    https://scores.espn.go.com/nba/preview?gameId=280222005
     
     
    Buggsy
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2008 - 3:53 PM ET #100

    Buck go to covers home page ...go to the Wash/ cleve game ..click matchup and then click line history..opened @ 2
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    Buck go to covers home page ...go to the Wash/ cleve game ..click matchup and then click line history..opened @ 2
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