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3/6/13 THE TRUE STORY BEHIND THE THEORY

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Posted: #76
at www.scoresandodds.com they have the line opned at -2.  so whos line do we follow ?  some people will follow it and some wont.  i thought it was opening line and closing line only?
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by seaotter:

Hey Buck, if you still have the data, I'm wondering how often the teams getting the 3, 6, or 13 won outright.  Just like last night in CBB, both teams getting the 6 points won outright.  If you don't have the data available, I can do the research, just let me know
 
Thanks...

If you wouldnt mind researching the SU games, I'm going to get the entire season for my numbers in the NBA

 
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Posted: #78
BUGGSY, that was a very solid statement, thnk
 
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Posted: #79
Buck, okay, I can do that.  But on your picks, these teams don't really fall into the 3/6/13 because you manipulated the 3/6/13 line after it opened.  You're now appliying these teams to lines that calculate to 2/5/12, so they wouldn't apply.  Besides, just thinking about it, since we're supposed to be playing the dogs in this, shouldn't you be adding one to the 3/6/13 and getting 4/7/14, and not subtracting one and getting 2/5/12???
 
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Posted: #80
No... see since I'm only looking at the final line and dont know where it opened, Im assuming it moved throughout the day, thats why I open it up +/- .5 a point to get those stats (kinda like my margin for error). As for the +1 thats just something I put in there for fun to see what would happen if you would buy a whole point and see how many that hit. 
 
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Posted: #81
Yeah, but you're buying the point on the dog, not the favorite.  So, for example, with Washington tonite, they open at 3, you buy a point on Washington, that takes the line to +4, not +2, right?
 
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Posted: #82
And I understand your +/-.5.  That's a good idea to do that. I'm going to do the ML stats based on 3/6/13 +/-.5.  That should line things up with what you're doing too.
 
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Posted: #83
PayDaJuice , your correct to keep your # in order, structure is the strength of the equations, which is interior math, in this particular % rating, it cannot be overlooked, or considered a play.....
 
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Posted: #84
I would only but the point if it were +2 +5 or +12... if its at 3/6/13 already I leave it where it is.
 
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Posted: #85
However, if the line were +3.5 6.5 or 13.5.... I would buy the .5 point at then make it 4 7 and 14. (I just always buy the hook) So my numbers are reflective of that.
 
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Posted: #86
Ok... well I went back another month and added up the numbers to inlcude all of December. They are pretty much staying constant with the %'s they were for January and February. The biggest % is still Road Dogs getting +2 +5 +12 coving ATS 27 otu of 39 times the last 3 months. or 69%.
 
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Posted: #87
TAJIKIMAN: Yes my brother! I am glad to see you jumped up on this 3/6/13 DISCUSSION, interesting, stick around, the formula's are on their way$
 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by STASH:

BUGGSY, that was a very solid statement, thnk

Stash...no problem. anything i can do to help the board !!

But guys, if your gonna buy the hook or full points , it's not going to fall under the peritmeters of the System .But i like the way you are thinking . alot of other cappers on covers seem to tak existing systems, and tweek them to find different trends or systems.  Who knows ,might stumble onto something

Buck...u a math major or something ...good work !!!

as usual   BOL to all

 
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Posted: #89
so now we are going with 2/5/12 ? i dont get it .. is it closing line or opening line or both.  seems like people are just adding there own formulas by buying a hook
 
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Posted: #90
seaotter...That is the most incredible Stat I ever heard in my 23 years in the industry. EXCELLENT INFORMATION
 
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Posted: #91
so all the profitable plays for today falling under these guidelines would be

Nets +5
Washington +3
New York +6
Bucks +12.5

right?  and you should fade clippers and chicago here?  cause the are 41% winners

 
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Posted: #92
Quote Originally Posted by STASH:

PayDaJuice , your correct to keep your # in order, structure is the strength of the equations, which is interior math, in this particular % rating, it cannot be overlooked, or considered a play.....
  Well said !!!!!!
 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by jlt9889:

so now we are going with 2/5/12 ? i dont get it .. is it closing line or opening line or both.  seems like people are just adding there own formulas by buying a hook

Since I'm not sure how the 3/6/13 is exactly supposed to be played I just sorta took it and ran with it my own way. Looking back the last 3 months I found that +2 +5 and +12 have covered 69% at the time, at the line close. 27-12
 
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Posted: #94
JLT9889, it's simply the bottom line on your ticket..LIKE TO NIGHT, WIZARDS+3...period ...if the opening line is 4.5 it plays NO FACTOR, and of  course, vice versa....
 
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Posted: #95
PAPSMEAR, the only game you have that fall under the3/6/13  are the WIZARDS+3... THAT IS THE ONLY GAME  OF INTEREST, the rest have nothing to do with this, stay focus, don't shepard out...
 
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by STASH:

PAPSMEAR, the only game you have that fall under the3/6/13  are the WIZARDS+3... THAT IS THE ONLY GAME  OF INTEREST, the rest have nothing to do with this, stay focus, don't shepard out...



stash,
i was talking about Buckfan's data.  He elaborated on the system.  I know washington is the only 3/6/13 ,that takes one eye to see, what the hell is there to lose focus on.  And bucksfan actually showed that New Jersey +5 is a stronger play than Washington +3.  According to the system anyways.  I was jsut showing the profitable plays based on his data. 
 
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Posted: #97
Ok... well this is my final verdict
 
From what I've read and seen, here is how the 3/6/13 system plays along with my twist. You bet any ROAD dog with the line OPENING at 3/6/13. With my research I have found that 2/5/12 lines also hit very well at the CLOSE. This is prolly due to vegas evening the money out on the 3/6/13 games people were betting to open. No buying hooks are anything special 3/6/13 at OPEN 2/5/12 at CLOSE.
 
What do you think?
 
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Posted: #98
Stash...the Washington game does not fall into the system because it didnt open @3 ...it opened @2 or 2.5 and was bet up to 3
 
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Posted: #99
Well... this is anything problem with the system. What book do you look at to see an open?  Look at ESPN.com It has the open at 3.
 
 
 
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Posted: #100
Buck go to covers home page ...go to the Wash/ cleve game ..click matchup and then click line history..opened @ 2
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