Posted:
#101
Interesting Buck, I'm still updating my database, but should have the ML data for the NBA shortly.
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3/6/13 THE TRUE STORY BEHIND THE THEORY
Posted:
#103
Quote Originally Posted by Buckfan02:
Ok... well this is my final verdict
From what I've read and seen, here is how the 3/6/13 system plays along with my twist. You bet any ROAD dog with the line OPENING at 3/6/13. With my research I have found that 2/5/12 lines also hit very well at the CLOSE. This is prolly due to vegas evening the money out on the 3/6/13 games people were betting to open. No buying hooks are anything special 3/6/13 at OPEN 2/5/12 at CLOSE.
What do you think?
That sounds pretty logical to me. I guess the exceptions would be like todays new jersey game. That opened at 4 and may close at 5. but was never anywhere near 6. So should we discard this type of game u think??
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Posted:
#104
Ya I saw that, so were does ESPN come up with 3? Was covers.com around when the developer of this system started it? Where did he get his numbers? I like the idea of the system but not sure where to start with it... all I know is what I've researched and thats with the closing line from covers.com L3 months 27-12 69% 2/5/12 numbers. BOL everyone
Thanks seaotter- let me know what you find, I'm really interested, not to mention dying to turn $10 bucks in $37,000!!!
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Posted:
#113
WHODAMANN; just doing some research on the3 6 13 theory, have had un-believable success with it, and would like to get all the answers, and insight available,through an open forum set up for handicappers with experience, and un-limited knowledge. The 76% is my only concern, my career is in handicapping sporting match ups, this about money, and until this is resolved we'll keep discussing it thnk
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Posted:
#114
michael- Ya that 'Zona game had trap written all over it... 82% or somthing like that of the money was on them, but the line moved from pk to +2... vegas wanted that 'Zona $$. I call that a huge signal in the other direction. Keep an eye out for those. It was the same line switch as the Michigan State loss to Penn State about a month ago. I banked on Washington last night and Penn State then. BOL tonight.
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Posted:
#120
Well, the numbers aren't very impressive for the moneylines.
3/6/13 lines, looking at only moneyline wins on these numbers: Entire NBA season:
Total games 116
Total ML wins 46
Percentage 40%
Total games w/ line at 3 34
Total ML wins 18
Percentage 53%
Total games w/ line at 6 77
Total ML wins 27
Percentage 35%
Total games w/ line at 13 5
Total ML wins 1
Percentage 20 %
Now, since ML's come with + money, and this is going to be crude, so hang on.
Line of +3 gives ML of +135
Line of +6 gives ML of +300
Line of +13 gives ML of +650
(ML dollars from scoresandodds.com lines)
Hope all this stuff stays lined up. LOL
Now, all games w/ +3 and betting the ML gives us
(18*1.35) -(16*1)
24.3 - 16 = 8.3 units
all games w/ +6 and betting the ML gives us:
(27*3.0) - (50*1)
81 - 50 = 31 units
all games w/ +13 and betting the ML gives us:
(1*6.5) - (4*1)
6.5 - 4 = 2.5 units
8.3 + 31 + 2.5 = 41.8 unit profit for the entire NBA season when betting the moneyline on games where the spread is +3, +6, or +13.
Not bad, may try to manipulate this later to see where improvements can be made. Now, remember, this is for the closing lines and not the opening lines. My database only has closing lines. I'm in the process of changing the DB to include more data for better flexibility.
Someone check my math and logic please!!!
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Posted:
#121
Quote Originally Posted by seaotter:
Well, the numbers aren't very impressive for the moneylines.
3/6/13 lines, looking at only moneyline wins on these numbers: Entire NBA season:
Total games 116
Total ML wins 46
Percentage 40%
Total games w/ line at 3 34
Total ML wins 18
Percentage 53%
Total games w/ line at 6 77
Total ML wins 27
Percentage 35%
Total games w/ line at 13 5
Total ML wins 1
Percentage 20 %
Now, since ML's come with + money, and this is going to be crude, so hang on.
Line of +3 gives ML of +135
Line of +6 gives ML of +300
Line of +13 gives ML of +650
(ML dollars from scoresandodds.com lines)
Hope all this stuff stays lined up. LOL
Now, all games w/ +3 and betting the ML gives us
(18*1.35) -(16*1)
24.3 - 16 = 8.3 units
all games w/ +6 and betting the ML gives us:
(27*3.0) - (50*1)
81 - 50 = 31 units
all games w/ +13 and betting the ML gives us:
(1*6.5) - (4*1)
6.5 - 4 = 2.5 units
8.3 + 31 + 2.5 = 41.8 unit profit for the entire NBA season when betting the moneyline on games where the spread is +3, +6, or +13.
Not bad, may try to manipulate this later to see where improvements can be made. Now, remember, this is for the closing lines and not the opening lines. My database only has closing lines. I'm in the process of changing the DB to include more data for better flexibility.
Someone check my math and logic please!!!
That is some really nice profit. Otter is that for only road dogs or for both home and road lines. ???
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Posted:
#124
All games, home or away wher line is 3, 6, or 13.
Mentioned this earlier in thread, so be aware of this for tomorrow. Not saying it would hit again, but you never know. This was in CBB.
Wasn't going to mention this, but..... Last weekend in CBB there were 4 teams with +13 opening lines and huge ML's of 400+. Well, as luck would have it, not only did all four teams cover the 13 point spread, but they all won OUTRIGHT(Ok St, Richmond, NC-Wilm, & Auburn) getting the 13 points. Well, I used a ML calculator to calculate a four team ML parlay with the 400+ odds. Here's the sick part. On a $10 bet, $10.00 mind you, the payout for the parlay was $37,000 and change. Yeah, THIRTY-SEVEN THOUSAND and change. Now, I know that it may never hit again, but if the oppurtunity comes up again, I'll waste $10 on that chance anyday!!!!
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