3/6/13 THE TRUE STORY BEHIND THE THEORY

Ok... well being bored at work I decided to run some numbers and here is what I came up with for the NCAAB and NBA

NCAAB for the month of 2/08: (all lines are the *final* lines posted on covers) I didn’t count the pushes towards the percentage winners since you get your money back…

Home Dogs  exactly  +3 +6 +13
12/15/3 = 44.4% winners

Road Dogs + 3 +6 +13
26/20/2 = 57% winners

Home Dogs +2.5 to +3.5 / +5.5 to +6.6 / +12.5 to +13.5 (always buying the hook)
32/18/1 = 64% winners

Road Dogs +2.5 to +3.5 / +5.5 to +6.6 / +12.5 to +13.5 (always buying the hook)
49/29/4 = 62.8% winners

Overall 119/82/10= 59.2% winners

For the NBA since there weren’t as many games I did January and February and I added in there +1 games as well i.e. +2 / +5 / +12

Home +3 / +6 / +13
7/4/1= 63.6% winners

Home 2.5 to 3.5 / 5.5 to 6.5 / 12.5 to 13.5 (buying the hook)
12/17/1= 41.3% winners

Home +2 +5 +12 (buying a whole point)
11/8= 57.9% winners

TOTAL HOME GAMES 30/29/2 = 50.8% winners



Road +3 / +6 / +13
17/13= 56.7% winners

Road 2.5 to 3.5 / 5.5 to 6.5 / 12.5 to 13.5 (buying the hook)
27/24/3= 52.9% winners

Road +2 +5 +12 (buying a whole point)
15/5= 75% winners

TOTAL ROAD GAMES 59/42/3= 58.4% winners

The thing is with my numbers is they are the *final numbers* not the opening lines... That’s why I included buying the +/- .5 and +1 for the NBA. I took into account the line probably moved throughout the day. 

As of right now I would put Washington into this system as a Play. ESPECIALLY with the cavs been short players tonight.

The thing is with my numbers is they are the *final numbers* not the opening lines... That’s why I included buying the +/- .5 and +1 for the NBA. I took into account the line probably moved throughout the day. 

As of right now I would put Washington into this system as a Play. ESPECIALLY with the cavs been short players tonight.