Posted:
#51
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3/6/13 THE TRUE STORY BEHIND THE THEORY
Posted:
#52
Ok... well being bored at work I decided to run some numbers and here is what I came up with for the NCAAB and NBA
NCAAB for the month of 2/08: (all lines are the *final* lines posted on covers) I didn’t count the pushes towards the percentage winners since you get your money back…
Home Dogs exactly +3 +6 +13
12/15/3 = 44.4% winners
Road Dogs + 3 +6 +13
26/20/2 = 57% winners
Home Dogs +2.5 to +3.5 / +5.5 to +6.6 / +12.5 to +13.5 (always buying the hook)
32/18/1 = 64% winners
Road Dogs +2.5 to +3.5 / +5.5 to +6.6 / +12.5 to +13.5 (always buying the hook)
49/29/4 = 62.8% winners
Overall 119/82/10= 59.2% winners
For the NBA since there weren’t as many games I did January and February and I added in there +1 games as well i.e. +2 / +5 / +12
Home +3 / +6 / +13
7/4/1= 63.6% winners
Home 2.5 to 3.5 / 5.5 to 6.5 / 12.5 to 13.5 (buying the hook)
12/17/1= 41.3% winners
Home +2 +5 +12 (buying a whole point)
11/8= 57.9% winners
TOTAL HOME GAMES 30/29/2 = 50.8% winners
Road +3 / +6 / +13
17/13= 56.7% winners
Road 2.5 to 3.5 / 5.5 to 6.5 / 12.5 to 13.5 (buying the hook)
27/24/3= 52.9% winners
Road +2 +5 +12 (buying a whole point)
15/5= 75% winners
TOTAL ROAD GAMES 59/42/3= 58.4% winners
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Posted:
#62
The thing is with my numbers is they are the *final numbers* not the opening lines... That’s why I included buying the +/- .5 and +1 for the NBA. I took into account the line probably moved throughout the day.
As of right now I would put
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Posted:
#63
The thing is with my numbers is they are the *final numbers* not the opening lines... That’s why I included buying the +/- .5 and +1 for the NBA. I took into account the line probably moved throughout the day.
As of right now I would put
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Posted:
#67
for those who have an interest, there is ONE game tonight you can check out that falls under the3/6/13/ "road dog" theory.. The WIZARDS +3 at CLEVLAND... take a look, check it out for yourself, I opened the book, now do your research, believe me, your going to be very surprised with the results.. just stay structured with concept, and don't drift....
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Posted:
#68
Jlt, it does seem that way in the NBA, but it appears almost daily in CBB. Wasn't going to mention this, but..... Last weekend in CBB there were 4 teams with +13 opening lines and huge ML's of 400+. Well, as luck would have it, not only did all four teams cover the 13 point spread, but they all won OUTRIGHT(Ok St, Richmond, NC-Wilm, & Auburn) getting the 13 points. Well, I used a ML calculator to calculate a four team ML parlay with the 400+ odds. Here's the sick part. On a $10 bet, $10.00 mind you, the payout for the parlay was $37,000 and change. Yeah, THIRTY-SEVEN THOUSAND and change. Now, I know that it may never hit again, but if the oppurtunity comes up again, I'll waste $10 on that chance anyday!!!!
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Posted:
#71
Buck, thanks for running those numbers man. Interesting stuff.
Even buying the hook seems profitable for the most part. IT would depend how much your paying in juice. Like buying a whole point on the 2/5/12 home dog at -115 and its hitting 57.9% its not even worth it.
Whats most interesting i think is that road dogs 2/5/12 buying a whole point hitting 75%!! Even if your paying -120 for that point its still highly profitable. I would be curious what these percentages would be over a long period of time because 20 games or whatever isnt that big a data pool.
But the 3/6/13 seems to have some validity with strong numbers all around.
And washington does look like a solid play. Only thing that worries me is the front page of covers is telling everyone how shorthanded the cavs are. I guess thats not really a big deal. Over 80 percent on cavs now.
Even buying the hook seems profitable for the most part. IT would depend how much your paying in juice. Like buying a whole point on the 2/5/12 home dog at -115 and its hitting 57.9% its not even worth it.
Whats most interesting i think is that road dogs 2/5/12 buying a whole point hitting 75%!! Even if your paying -120 for that point its still highly profitable. I would be curious what these percentages would be over a long period of time because 20 games or whatever isnt that big a data pool.
But the 3/6/13 seems to have some validity with strong numbers all around.
And washington does look like a solid play. Only thing that worries me is the front page of covers is telling everyone how shorthanded the cavs are. I guess thats not really a big deal. Over 80 percent on cavs now.
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Posted:
#74
Sportsbook.com opened the line at Cavs -2, then took it off the board for a while, I gues because there were some uncertainties as to whether their new players were going to be there or if they were going to have to use D-League players.
Now the line has been BET up to -3 with 86% of the consensus on the Cavs.
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Posted:
#75
Thanks for all the feedback, this is all new to me and kinda fun to research so any input I'll appreciate. I'm dying to find a solid system of plays and stick to it.
Currently, the games that would fall under my lines: (beted)
NBA (%’s are from January and February numbers)
NJ Nets +5 (road dog +1) 75% Winner
Knicks +6 (home dog even) 63.6% Winner
Bulls (+5.5 home dog +.5) 41.3% Winner
Bucks (+12.5 road dog +.5) 52.9% Winner
Clippers (+5.5 home dog +.5) 41.3% Winner
NCAAB (%’s are from February numbers)
Winthrop +3 (home dog even) 44.4% winner
Im going to look further into the NBA numbers to get a better grasp on these percentages.
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