TOURNAMENT: 123-78-7 (BIG PLAY: 44-24-5)
Boy, a couple of real duds by teams I would have expected to score. Algeria were just lost. And this is becoming commonplace, seemingly, with the African teams. Morocco does not really qualify as they are by far the class of the continent.
Here come Egypt, to try and squash this African losing streak and they face an Australian team whose offense has been labeled as pathetic in this tournament. But they have been in this spot before and will have confidence due to the stakes they are facing. They will also have the large part of AT&T Stadium behind them.
Australia kept a clean sheet in four of their last six World Cup games which means they probably won't here. But the BTTS has stung me the past two nights so I'm going to be more intentional with that play, even though I can see it happening here as well. Egypt have actually scored five of their last seven goals inside 20 minutes so they will be spry and, if they get ahead, I won't be very concerned.
Both teams are missing a couple of key guys and I find this to be a very evenly matched affair. I have strong confidence that Australia will come out with fight and will be able to get a goal here. There is a lot of value in this game and I also want to post a big play for the next game since I won't be home for the entirety of the day:
AUSTRALIA TO ADVANCE (+130): Not every favorite other than Paraguay will advance. Enough said, Australia is every bit as capable to beat Egypt who really backed into top spot here so I think they are a bit heavier favorites than they should even be.
OVER 1 FH AUSTRALIA/EGYPT (+180)...BIG PLAY!!!: This is simple, if one goal comes in, we push. Given what I stated above about Egypt coming out scoring their goals early, and with the payback, I think this gets AT LEAST one goal. Yes, many of the FH have only had 1, or even none, scored. But that won't be the case here, at least not how I see it.
I'm not always right, in fact wrong plenty, but these are what I foresee in this game. At least this is where I am going to be "investing" early today. Keep comments positive and, as always, tail or fade, good luck to all...







