Posted:
#1
Been a minute since I've been in these parts/ I'm a college hoops guy and it's that time of year for college hoops. That and the international breaks make me lose track of the pitch. I generally rely on the Estonia Winter Festival as my beacon for betting soccer - without that in play, I'm like a nomad wandering through the desert.
Anyway, I did remember it's time for some knockouts, albeit a day late, but not a dollar short as in I didn't lose a shilling on the games yesterday. Incredible strategy and execution and fascinating outcomes and if you don't think that, I don't know....
Atalanta-Valencia first half over 1.5 +135 (10 units)
Every line I analyze in this match, from props to Asian handicaps to match lines to totals tells me this one ends 2-1 Atalanta. I don't see an edge playing the side or the total, but I'm taking a shot that this one gets out of the gates fast. Important to note that over their last 20 CL road matches, Valencia has allowed more than one goal only once. Now, you're probably challenging what does the 1978 team have to do with today's club and that's valid - it's not really that long ago, goes back about ten years. What it speaks to is strategy and philosophy in how clubs approach these matches. Valencia wants their away goal, lose by one and then be on their way to head back home and beat you to advance.
However, Atalanta's back line is so suspect that it's like having a store with nobody working and the cash register opened with cash just sitting there. Hard for most not to take advantage of that, and I think that will be the case here for Valencia in the early going. The home fans will be amped up and I think that translates onto the pitch. I could see a 1-1 score at the break, but again, odds aren't supporting this, but I'll take a shot.
Tottenham-RB Leipzig over 2.5 -117 (11.7 units) and over 3.5 +215 (4 units)
I know Spurs are depleted in their attack, but I still think there is enough firepower on both sides for this to hit three goals. I don't think Spurs fancy their chance to rely on advancing in Germany, so they should be full throttle and, conveniently, Leipzig doesn't really know much pace other than full throttle.
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