I will post all my daily plays here, which are following the same handicapping methodology.
All wagers are risking 1 unit, which is 2.5% of the starting bankroll. (The starting bankroll is considered the same, unchanged from day one, unless I mention it.)
The start time of games is in Central European Time (Paris, Berlin, Roma, Madrid), because I try to focus on games from Europe.
All the odds are from Pinnacle, no more than about 20 minutes before the time of posting, as I need to place my wagers, and after that to redact and make my posts.
These odds are lowered with 0.012-0.02 (example: 1.855 will be 1.84, 1.91 will be 1.89) because in most cases Pinnacle odds are best or close to best in the world, but many have no access to Pinnacle. In case if there are no Pinnacle line yet, I will use the average line shown in Oddsportal.com.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I will post all my daily plays here, which are following the same handicapping methodology.
All wagers are risking 1 unit, which is 2.5% of the starting bankroll. (The starting bankroll is considered the same, unchanged from day one, unless I mention it.)
The start time of games is in Central European Time (Paris, Berlin, Roma, Madrid), because I try to focus on games from Europe.
All the odds are from Pinnacle, no more than about 20 minutes before the time of posting, as I need to place my wagers, and after that to redact and make my posts.
These odds are lowered with 0.012-0.02 (example: 1.855 will be 1.84, 1.91 will be 1.89) because in most cases Pinnacle odds are best or close to best in the world, but many have no access to Pinnacle. In case if there are no Pinnacle line yet, I will use the average line shown in Oddsportal.com.
I have made the "St Polten +0.25 1.73" wager by mistake (should have skipped that game), because the numbers of one of my handicapping criteria are slightly out of range for this one. But anyways it stands as it is, because the wagers already made can not be called back at any bookie.
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I have made the "St Polten +0.25 1.73" wager by mistake (should have skipped that game), because the numbers of one of my handicapping criteria are slightly out of range for this one. But anyways it stands as it is, because the wagers already made can not be called back at any bookie.
Happy to see another person capping deep leagues. Thought I was the only degenerate who played Austria second league GL to you
Cheers bro!
I am playing all the wagers resulting from my numbers of my criteria. Austria 2 is not even such an obscure league, lol...
I was running some serious trials and the same handicapping method between Mar 17 - Apr 30 would have yielded: W 118 (106) - L 68 (64.5) - P 16.
I have not made exact calculations, just like this, statistic, but assuming that the average winning wager had odds=0.82, this would have been winning 22.42 units, which at 2.5% each unit is a sensationally massive 56.05% gain on the starting bankroll.
Of course there are some variable factors, like if I make my handicapping at 10 CET in the morning or 12:30, or even later, the odds can be different, specially for the games beginning not too late in the day, but anyway the method should be a long term winner.
Over my trial Saturdays and Sunday were the weakest days (also with the most plays by far), and so far this weekend is in line with that.
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Quote Originally Posted by Im_Chasing:
Happy to see another person capping deep leagues. Thought I was the only degenerate who played Austria second league GL to you
Cheers bro!
I am playing all the wagers resulting from my numbers of my criteria. Austria 2 is not even such an obscure league, lol...
I was running some serious trials and the same handicapping method between Mar 17 - Apr 30 would have yielded: W 118 (106) - L 68 (64.5) - P 16.
I have not made exact calculations, just like this, statistic, but assuming that the average winning wager had odds=0.82, this would have been winning 22.42 units, which at 2.5% each unit is a sensationally massive 56.05% gain on the starting bankroll.
Of course there are some variable factors, like if I make my handicapping at 10 CET in the morning or 12:30, or even later, the odds can be different, specially for the games beginning not too late in the day, but anyway the method should be a long term winner.
Over my trial Saturdays and Sunday were the weakest days (also with the most plays by far), and so far this weekend is in line with that.
@WagerViper Nice yeah I know that isnt that deep haha but deeper than others on your list. I like Egypt, Romania, and India second leagues
I never do Egypt 2 and India 2 (those are really deep, lol...), but I might do Romania 2 if my numbers would say so, because I am always checking Romania 2.
Start time of games is a factor too. I never play anything starting before 13:00 CET, but for a day's card I might play those starting latest at 7:05 next day morning (like some Japan, Korea stuff).
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Quote Originally Posted by Im_Chasing:
@WagerViper Nice yeah I know that isnt that deep haha but deeper than others on your list. I like Egypt, Romania, and India second leagues
I never do Egypt 2 and India 2 (those are really deep, lol...), but I might do Romania 2 if my numbers would say so, because I am always checking Romania 2.
Start time of games is a factor too. I never play anything starting before 13:00 CET, but for a day's card I might play those starting latest at 7:05 next day morning (like some Japan, Korea stuff).
Too bad I was chicken to not take Metlaoui at +1 and Newells OB at +0.75, because the higher odds would have made a nice difference at the end of the day.
In principle I try to not take anything on worst odds than 1.73-ish, but on some games I feel I need to go lower every once in a while.
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Too bad I was chicken to not take Metlaoui at +1 and Newells OB at +0.75, because the higher odds would have made a nice difference at the end of the day.
In principle I try to not take anything on worst odds than 1.73-ish, but on some games I feel I need to go lower every once in a while.
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GL to you 
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