My focus is identifying inefficiencies in the betting markets.
I only focus on the most liquid markets in the most liquid competitions, I've learned the hard way trying to bet soft markets and having accounts restricted, I place the majority of my bets on the exchanges now.
Main Focus
UEFA:
UEFA Champions League
UEFA Europa League
UEFA Europa Conference League
England:
Premier League
International:
FIFA & UEFA Competitions
I'll post some brief analysis with every play I add to this thread, hopefully you'll find it informative.
Looking forward to sharing my plays with this community, thanks everyone
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
My focus is identifying inefficiencies in the betting markets.
I only focus on the most liquid markets in the most liquid competitions, I've learned the hard way trying to bet soft markets and having accounts restricted, I place the majority of my bets on the exchanges now.
Main Focus
UEFA:
UEFA Champions League
UEFA Europa League
UEFA Europa Conference League
England:
Premier League
International:
FIFA & UEFA Competitions
I'll post some brief analysis with every play I add to this thread, hopefully you'll find it informative.
Looking forward to sharing my plays with this community, thanks everyone
Stake: 2 Units (I'm using a 150-unit bankroll so adjust stakes accordingly.)
Analysis:
Three goals were scored in additional time of the Madrid/Porto game last week, one of them a Porto penalty and they also only had 10 men from the 81st minute after a red card.
Leverkusen are naturally associated with the higher-scoring Bundesliga but the loss of Florian Wirtz to a cruciate ligament injury in March has been difficult for the team, he scored 3 goals in 6 European games last year and his dangerous playmaking ability is sorely missed.
Atletico is weaker than in previous years but their dogged style of play will be difficult for Leverkusen to play through, Atletico love to sit deep especially away from home in Europe, and they will be happy to leave Germany with a point.
This group could be very open with Brugge dark horses after beating Leverkusen in matchday one, the German side will play Porto back-to-back in two crucial games so they’ll possibly be happy with a point here as well.
Leverkusen is going to struggle to break down teams without Wirtz’s flair and ability, we could see another Simeone special with a 1-1 or 0-1 type scoreline.
EARLY POSITION
Tuesday 13th September
UEFA Champions League
Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Atlético Madrid
Pick: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.83 (I wouldn't take anything under 1.80)
Stake: 2 Units (I'm using a 150-unit bankroll so adjust stakes accordingly.)
Analysis:
Three goals were scored in additional time of the Madrid/Porto game last week, one of them a Porto penalty and they also only had 10 men from the 81st minute after a red card.
Leverkusen are naturally associated with the higher-scoring Bundesliga but the loss of Florian Wirtz to a cruciate ligament injury in March has been difficult for the team, he scored 3 goals in 6 European games last year and his dangerous playmaking ability is sorely missed.
Atletico is weaker than in previous years but their dogged style of play will be difficult for Leverkusen to play through, Atletico love to sit deep especially away from home in Europe, and they will be happy to leave Germany with a point.
This group could be very open with Brugge dark horses after beating Leverkusen in matchday one, the German side will play Porto back-to-back in two crucial games so they’ll possibly be happy with a point here as well.
Leverkusen is going to struggle to break down teams without Wirtz’s flair and ability, we could see another Simeone special with a 1-1 or 0-1 type scoreline.
Stake: 2 Units (I'm using a 150-unit bankroll so adjust stakes accordingly.)
Analysis:
Both sides are struggling domestically, Copenhagen are 6th in the Superliga and have conceded 15 goals in 9 league games.
Sevilla are a mess and while they won their first match of the season against Espanyol on Saturday they only have four points after five matches, conceding 10 goals.
Sevilla sold two of their strongest defenders in pre-season (Carlos & Kounde) and they’re extremely vulnerable at the back right now, they’ve allowed Over 2.0XG (expected Goals) in four consecutive games.
Both of these teams took heavy defeats to City & Dortmund in Matchday One, with this match in Copenhagen the Danish side will feel confident about scoring against this leaky Spanish defence.
Sevilla desperately need a win considering they’ll have a double header against Dortmund in Matchdays 3 & 4, expecting to see another open game with both defences struggling.
EARLY POSITION
Wednesday 14th September
UEFA Champions League
FC Copenhagen v Sevilla
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.91
Stake: 2 Units (I'm using a 150-unit bankroll so adjust stakes accordingly.)
Analysis:
Both sides are struggling domestically, Copenhagen are 6th in the Superliga and have conceded 15 goals in 9 league games.
Sevilla are a mess and while they won their first match of the season against Espanyol on Saturday they only have four points after five matches, conceding 10 goals.
Sevilla sold two of their strongest defenders in pre-season (Carlos & Kounde) and they’re extremely vulnerable at the back right now, they’ve allowed Over 2.0XG (expected Goals) in four consecutive games.
Both of these teams took heavy defeats to City & Dortmund in Matchday One, with this match in Copenhagen the Danish side will feel confident about scoring against this leaky Spanish defence.
Sevilla desperately need a win considering they’ll have a double header against Dortmund in Matchdays 3 & 4, expecting to see another open game with both defences struggling.
Stake: 2 Units (I'm using a 150-unit bankroll so adjust stakes accordingly.)
Analysis
Rangers first Champions League group stage match in Ibrox for +10 years, obviously emotions and home support will be significant but Napoli have the superior team on paper.
Rangers didn’t play a match at the weekend due to the death of Queen Elizabeth but they would likely have preferred an easy domestic victory, they’ve lost back-to-back matches 4-0 and pressure will be on them to produce a performance.
Napoli were able to rest players at the weekend and maintain their unbeaten start to the season, they looked in trouble during the summer after losing key players but the current squad appears to fit Spalletti’s style of play even better.
Italian teams are no strangers to hostile atmospheres, I don't see them being unsettled by the home crowd.
Napoli were dominant against Liverpool, this price has drifted but I’m more than happy to bet the current price, although I wouldn’t bet this below 1.80 odds.
Wednesday 14th September
UEFA Champions League
Rangers v Napoli
Pick: Napoli to win
Odds: 1.87
Stake: 2 Units (I'm using a 150-unit bankroll so adjust stakes accordingly.)
Analysis
Rangers first Champions League group stage match in Ibrox for +10 years, obviously emotions and home support will be significant but Napoli have the superior team on paper.
Rangers didn’t play a match at the weekend due to the death of Queen Elizabeth but they would likely have preferred an easy domestic victory, they’ve lost back-to-back matches 4-0 and pressure will be on them to produce a performance.
Napoli were able to rest players at the weekend and maintain their unbeaten start to the season, they looked in trouble during the summer after losing key players but the current squad appears to fit Spalletti’s style of play even better.
Italian teams are no strangers to hostile atmospheres, I don't see them being unsettled by the home crowd.
Napoli were dominant against Liverpool, this price has drifted but I’m more than happy to bet the current price, although I wouldn’t bet this below 1.80 odds.
Stake: 1 Unit (I'm using a 150-unit bankroll so adjust stakes accordingly.)
UEFA Europa League
Bodø/Glimt v FC Zurich
Pick: Over 3.0 Goals
Odds: 1.96
Stake: 1 Unit (I'm using a 150-unit bankroll so adjust stakes accordingly.)
Quick Analysis:
Using half the usual stake here as I prefer betting Over 2.5, obviously, there's no value on those markets considering these matchups.
I categorically have zero faith in any of these teams defensively, Feyenoord at home are so dangerous on the attack but Graz will create chances, created Over 3.30 XG (Expected Goals) against Midtjylland last week while Feyenoord conceded 4 goals to Lazio.
Bodø/Glimt should play their more expansive style of football at home, Zurich are a mess right now, won their domestic league last season but lie second last and have conceded 19 goals in 8 games in the Swiss Super League.
Bodø/Glimt not known for their defensive capabilities and Zurich have enough talent to get on the scoresheet at least once.
Thursday 15th September
UEFA Europa League
Feyenoord v Sturm Graz
Pick: Over 3.0 Goals
Odds: 2.00
Stake: 1 Unit (I'm using a 150-unit bankroll so adjust stakes accordingly.)
UEFA Europa League
Bodø/Glimt v FC Zurich
Pick: Over 3.0 Goals
Odds: 1.96
Stake: 1 Unit (I'm using a 150-unit bankroll so adjust stakes accordingly.)
Quick Analysis:
Using half the usual stake here as I prefer betting Over 2.5, obviously, there's no value on those markets considering these matchups.
I categorically have zero faith in any of these teams defensively, Feyenoord at home are so dangerous on the attack but Graz will create chances, created Over 3.30 XG (Expected Goals) against Midtjylland last week while Feyenoord conceded 4 goals to Lazio.
Bodø/Glimt should play their more expansive style of football at home, Zurich are a mess right now, won their domestic league last season but lie second last and have conceded 19 goals in 8 games in the Swiss Super League.
Bodø/Glimt not known for their defensive capabilities and Zurich have enough talent to get on the scoresheet at least once.
Stake: 2 Units (I'm using a 150-unit bankroll so adjust stakes accordingly.)
Analysis:
Turkey should really never have been in League C, they are a much higher quality team and they’re cruising through this group, four wins from four games with 14 goals scored.
Turkey dominated when they played Luxembourg in June. With their promotion virtually sealed, they’ll be eager to open up and play attacking football in front of their home crowd. This is also their last home game in the group stages.
Luxembourg has grown in confidence in recent years and certainly won’t be afraid to play a more expansive style than most countries of their ranking.
Expecting a 3-1 type scoreline, Turkey have plenty of quality to expose Luxembourg’s weaknesses while the away side is capable of grabbing a goal in an open game.
EARLY POSITION
Thursday 22nd September
UEFA Nations League - Group C
Turkey v Luxembourg
Pick: Over 2.75 Goals
Odds: 1.86
Stake: 2 Units (I'm using a 150-unit bankroll so adjust stakes accordingly.)
Analysis:
Turkey should really never have been in League C, they are a much higher quality team and they’re cruising through this group, four wins from four games with 14 goals scored.
Turkey dominated when they played Luxembourg in June. With their promotion virtually sealed, they’ll be eager to open up and play attacking football in front of their home crowd. This is also their last home game in the group stages.
Luxembourg has grown in confidence in recent years and certainly won’t be afraid to play a more expansive style than most countries of their ranking.
Expecting a 3-1 type scoreline, Turkey have plenty of quality to expose Luxembourg’s weaknesses while the away side is capable of grabbing a goal in an open game.
Stake: 2 Units (I'm using a 150 unit bankroll so adjust stakes accordingly).
Analysis:
The first match between these sides was a shock 3-0 win for Georgia in North Macedonia, this is a must-win match for the visitors if they want to earn promotion, we’re also getting the cushion of 2 goals giving us a push.
North Macedonia are weak at the back and it’s difficult to see them keeping a clean sheet, the red hot Khvicha Karatskhelia will pose a huge danger with his playmaking ability.
Neither side is playing as defensively as the market has priced them, North Macedonia displayed a free flowing style of play at the European Championships last year and a draw does nothing for them tonight, expecting a much more open game than the market expects.
Overall: 4-1-1
Units: +4.12
ROI: 41.2% (Not relevant until over +500 bets)
Friday September 23rd
UEFA Nations League - Group C
Georgia v North Macedonia
Pick: Over 2.0 Goals
Odds: 1.85
Stake: 2 Units (I'm using a 150 unit bankroll so adjust stakes accordingly).
Analysis:
The first match between these sides was a shock 3-0 win for Georgia in North Macedonia, this is a must-win match for the visitors if they want to earn promotion, we’re also getting the cushion of 2 goals giving us a push.
North Macedonia are weak at the back and it’s difficult to see them keeping a clean sheet, the red hot Khvicha Karatskhelia will pose a huge danger with his playmaking ability.
Neither side is playing as defensively as the market has priced them, North Macedonia displayed a free flowing style of play at the European Championships last year and a draw does nothing for them tonight, expecting a much more open game than the market expects.
Stake: 2 Units (I’m using a 150 Unit bankroll so adjust your stakes accordingly)
Analysis:
Hungary has caused some huge upsets in this group, they failed to qualify for the World Cup but have taken 10 points in five games from a group consisting of England, Germany & Italy, an outstanding achievement.
They’re well-drilled defensively, conceding only three goals in those five games and if they earn a point or better here they will reach the Nations League semi-finals.
There will be a raucous home crowd, I’m expecting the Hungarians to set up in their solid defensive structure and frustrate Italy for large periods of this contest.
I’m expecting a tentative first half, if you don’t have Over/Under markets for the first half Under 2.25 Goals is not a bad bet for the full game, my only concern with this would be Italy scoring and then Hungary having to open up and chase the game late and the defensive structure falling apart.
I love this first-half line as two goals would be needed to result in a loss, I don't see this being a high-scoring game (especially in the opening stages).
Overall: 4-1-2
Units: +4.12
ROI: 34.33% (Not relevant until over +500 bets)
Monday 26th September
UEFA Nations League - Group A
Hungary v Italy
Pick: 1st Half - Under 1.0 Goals
Odds: 1.76
Stake: 2 Units (I’m using a 150 Unit bankroll so adjust your stakes accordingly)
Analysis:
Hungary has caused some huge upsets in this group, they failed to qualify for the World Cup but have taken 10 points in five games from a group consisting of England, Germany & Italy, an outstanding achievement.
They’re well-drilled defensively, conceding only three goals in those five games and if they earn a point or better here they will reach the Nations League semi-finals.
There will be a raucous home crowd, I’m expecting the Hungarians to set up in their solid defensive structure and frustrate Italy for large periods of this contest.
I’m expecting a tentative first half, if you don’t have Over/Under markets for the first half Under 2.25 Goals is not a bad bet for the full game, my only concern with this would be Italy scoring and then Hungary having to open up and chase the game late and the defensive structure falling apart.
I love this first-half line as two goals would be needed to result in a loss, I don't see this being a high-scoring game (especially in the opening stages).
Stake: 2 Units (I’m using a 150 Unit bankroll so adjust your stakes accordingly)
Analysis:
Two teams who appear absolutely bereft defensively, Brendan Rodgers is clinging onto the Leicester job while Forest’s gamble in making so many signings without much time to gel has proved unstable so far.
Both sides are in the bottom four for XGA (Expected Goals Allowed), Forest on 14.3 & Leicester 13.4 after seven games.
Leicester have scored against Arsenal, Tottenham & Chelsea, they have plenty of attacking and playmaking options up front and Rodgers has always looked for his teams to play on the front foot, I believe it's too late for Leicester to try and completely overhaul their style of play under his tenure and he's never looked interested in turning them into a defensive side.
Forest have had some tricky matchups but their past two games against Fulham & Bournemouth have been open affairs, they’ve squandered leads in both but they’re going to find the net plenty of times this season.
Early stages of the season but with Leicester sitting bottom on a solitary point and Forest just above them on four, both sides need to target a victory.
The goal line is sitting at 2.75 but I’m happy to lay the juice on Over 2.5 as three goals will deliver full profit. This line is probably going to close on 3.0 goals so I’d bet this before Monday or Tuesday if possible.
EARLY POSITION
Monday October 3rd
Premier League
Leicester City v Nottingham Forest
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.70
Stake: 2 Units (I’m using a 150 Unit bankroll so adjust your stakes accordingly)
Analysis:
Two teams who appear absolutely bereft defensively, Brendan Rodgers is clinging onto the Leicester job while Forest’s gamble in making so many signings without much time to gel has proved unstable so far.
Both sides are in the bottom four for XGA (Expected Goals Allowed), Forest on 14.3 & Leicester 13.4 after seven games.
Leicester have scored against Arsenal, Tottenham & Chelsea, they have plenty of attacking and playmaking options up front and Rodgers has always looked for his teams to play on the front foot, I believe it's too late for Leicester to try and completely overhaul their style of play under his tenure and he's never looked interested in turning them into a defensive side.
Forest have had some tricky matchups but their past two games against Fulham & Bournemouth have been open affairs, they’ve squandered leads in both but they’re going to find the net plenty of times this season.
Early stages of the season but with Leicester sitting bottom on a solitary point and Forest just above them on four, both sides need to target a victory.
The goal line is sitting at 2.75 but I’m happy to lay the juice on Over 2.5 as three goals will deliver full profit. This line is probably going to close on 3.0 goals so I’d bet this before Monday or Tuesday if possible.
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