12/29

Yesterday: 1-1 +$70

Melbourne/Wellington - BTTS + o2.5 -120 (HRB)

240/200

Bali Utd +145 (HRB)

200/290

GL today fellas

2-leg +182 (HRB):

Egypt - DnB -150

South Africa -145

200/364

Aussie 

@EzzClap

 First half hit, no doubter 

Can't pass up this price up...

Ben Aknoun - Win to Nil +450 (HRB)

200/900

Starts now, but tread lightly. I dont have Algeria league in Florida, so this one is new to me

Edit Price at time of placement:

Ben Aknoun - Win to Nil +475 (HRB)

200/950

@Im_Chasing

 Egypt scares me because Angola needs that win to advance but I like the dnb protection. Got one Im gonna go pretty big on today

Coventry PK/Walsall PK parlay +133

GL 

@Mikewavy

 Yeah I just dont think CAF wants to see Egypt lose. I was planning on fading them a lot, pre tournament for great prices, but after watching absolute thievery, ive changed my stance. Egypt can easily win this if they want, but can see them just playing possession against an aggressive side. DnB is the only value I see in this one. 

Nice, I'll be playing Championship as well today, but waiting for lineups on that front. 

GL brother 

Word gl and let me know if you see anything. Interested in the Watford and Middlesbrough games also

Like btts in Watford maybe parlay it with Middlesbrough pk

@Mikewavy

 Will do. I'll take a look in a bit 

Al Khaleej +110 (HRB)

500/550

No Youssouf for Fateh should prove costly. He is the heart and sole of that midfield. 

Ben match shaping up well. Still nil nil in the 66'. This is going to be a smash and grab from Ben if it hits. 

Ben gonna steal this  pushing hard

BANG!!! BANG!!!! BEN 1 

Damn nice hit

@Mikewavy

 Still time 

Literally playing out exactly how I figured. That price was insane. 

Into the 9th minute of stoppage with only 6 added. Blow it! 

Ben Aknoun - Win to Nil +475 (HRB)

200/950 

Lets Fkn go!

Been following your picks for awhile. Blindly tailed you on Ben Aknoun (never heard of this team, LOL) Where do you find these teams or even keep up with them?

Thanks for the early morning cash!!

@Im_Chasing

 I actually tailed you (Ben next goal at +600) at the 75th minute... small bet of course. Tks!

@JimA34

Thanks man! Happy to hear. Obviously it is impossible to keep up with hundreds of leagues, so I do have a group of maybe 25ish 1st leagues that I do actually follow. These markets have a more subjective criteria for deciding on value, as I use eye test and things like "let down spots" which cannot be quantified.

Deeper leagues, however, like this (Algeria), Indo, Mali, Egypt, etc., I use strictly numbers to estimate win percentages vs. implied probability from odds and select where the value is. 

There are about 10 of us that post regularly here in this forum, and I feel as if others may follow a more strict criteria than I do. I would assume most other users here use FotMob as their source, as xG is a great tool, especially when betting live (like the fellas in p thread. This is what I assume they do because they only bet goals). I personally utilize aiscore the most. 

I hope this answered your question and provided at least a little bit of insight. 

@jcf182

No prob! Happy to grab that one. Great work finding and securing +600. We read that match like a book  Like I talk to Mike about, you can really manipulate your wagers a few different ways to achieve the same outcome and maximize the ROI

South Africa 1 

Liking Middlesbrough now moreso than Coventry

@Mikewavy

 2 great matches. I backed Middlesbrough last match against lowly Blackburn and they couldn't even get 1 at home. I shouldn't have played that side as they were probably looking ahead to today's match, but idk. Catching up on work then will dive into Championship here shortly