Super Saturday

ECHINDAS are gorgeous

JT, rostos rubs some up the wrong way... no doubt. But he cops everything he gets.

Turn a blind eye my friend  

Echindas are beuatiful

Why is it on any given MLB game, the odds of the 2 teams are very close in odds. Furthermore, why is it when you have 2 teams on the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of talent when they play each other, the odds are the closest out of any sport.

For example.

If you have the Phillies with Roy Halladay on the mound, for the sake of this argument and i have seen it in the past, Halladay is at the peak of his powers, the Phillies are at full strength and playing at home against the Pittsburgh pirates with arguably one of the biggest gans on the mound with Charlie Morton.

Now, i have seen this scenario and many many other examples with other teams. The point is, i am trying to point out the largest mismatches in baseball.

In such a case as above, the odds at the very very max was

Phillies, $1.20-25

Pirates $3.75 - $4.00

NOW,

Lets look at the NBA, lets get a similar scenario.

Earlier this year, the the Lakers played the Totonto Raptors at staples. The mismatch between the Lakers and Raps IMO is probably even smaller than the Phis Pirates i gave.

Now the odds of that game was

Lakers $1.05

Raps $9.00

WHY will i NEVER get the same juice in baseball as i get in basketball even though the mismatches on paper appear to be the same?

I am waiting with interest?

You keep believing every team is under the cap

It is ONLY wrong if you get caught.

Just reading through the posts, after reading the personal insults from Hirschfelder, Bluephin and Jive,

After reading these, i am gonna have soooooo much trouble sleeping tonight, damn, anyone with sleeping tablets? How am i gonna get to sleep after reading those.

All because i have a mate who plays NRL and i am a senior manager at a funds management firm.

Damn, oh apparently, u cant access covers at work either, oh, you cant punt at work either.

Those things are sooooooo hard to believe, wow, i work and i have a friend who plays NRL, wow, apparently Barak Obama when he heard about me he wants to meet me. he just doesnt think such a thing is possible.....

WOW there must be some people with pathetic boring lives out there

what % of games do the shit teams in baseball win? and in NBA?

because he shoots at 67% we have to tolerate him

plus, with his contacts at the bulldogs and his friend the bookmaker he gets inside info that he passes onto us

Lasr season the Pirates LOST 68% of there game.

This season, the Raps are on pace to lose 69% of there games.

Yet i will NEVER get the same juice on baseball as i would on the NBA. In fact i got half the juice on the Pirates as opposed to the raps.

You making shit up (again)?

Pirates went 57-105, which means they lost 65% of their games

The raptors are 20-55, which means they have lost 73% of their games

San antonio are 57-19, are winning 75% of their games

The Phillies went 97-65, winning 60% of their games

don't bother replying until a) you stop making shit up, and b) you know what you are talking about

ok, so because one team has lost (at this stage) 8% more of there games is the difference between $3.75 - $9.00?

And NO, record is NOT the only thing, i have seen in ALL sports where one team has a worse record than the other they are playing and ARE STILL Favs.

Are you not paying attention? I said don't bother replying until a) you stop making shit up, and b) you know what you are talking about

no wonder you lose all the time, you don't understand the sports you are betting on, nor can you tell the difference between different markets

No, u CANNOT JUSTIFY why a TEAM like the Raptors are getting $9 for a win where as the Pirates max get $4......That is more than DOUBLE, furthermore, the Raps at this stage have lost ONLY 8% more of there games.

If a team has lost 8% more games and i get more than double the juice based PURELY on record is plain stupid.

I am convinced u know it is majority luck but dont want to admit it.

MLB doesnt have a salary cap, yet they have had a different winner every year for the last 12 years except i think the sox in the middle part of the decade.

Why does the NRL have a very stringent salary cap? to level the playing field so we can have a different winner every year, well, the storm exceeded it (no where near as much as the yankees exceeded other payroll) yet they pretty much dominated the last 5-6 years of the comp.

The MLB has NOT cap and they get different winner every year

oh, i lose everytime?

i suppose the difference between me losing and someone winning is the person who won KNEW and put it into his capping that Matt Orford would knock the ball on 30 secs left from the scrum and the titans would score a try after the siren to take it over and me lose my under.

 

That sequence of events was as insane as the finals game last year between Tigers and Roosters where Anasta kicked the FG to force golden point

But Rod, apparently some people put those final moments in the game into there cappingm, hence them winning. That is the difference between winning an losing. The person that wins can predict those things such as those final moments.......

yes, there is some skill but the majority is i would say 70-80%% luck.

I won on souths on Friday, but another day, Evans kicks that goal, goes to OT and Foran kicks a FG for us to lose.

 

seriously, you are retarded

so the results of nearly 2600 games per season comes down to luck?

if you are as smart as you think you are you would understand sample size and margin of error.

and there is more to pricing of an event then record, your bookmaker mate should have told you that.

and if you think the purpose of the nrl salary cap is to produce a different winner every year then you have less of a clue then I gave you credit for. And its "very stringent" It seems as though you understand the NRL as much as you do baseball

but using your logic, if the game is 70-80%% luck wouldn't we have more GF's that don;t include St George, Manly, Melbourne, Brisbane, Roosters. Where is Canberra, Sharks, Souths, Warriors in GFs?

YOU are the one that brought up records when i gave the examples not me and you have the nerve to say what you just said?

WTF

I am talking in the modern era , u HAVE back to backs, threepeats and Dynasties in the NBA, u dont get in the MLB. I am not for one minute saying it is 100% luck, of course not, BUt it is very very very large hence the tighter odds on H2H's as opposed to the NBA.

Put this way, if i was offered $4 on either the pirates or the raps, i would take the pirates, bloop hits, fielding errors, wrong batters up at wrong times, Ryan Howard smokes a couple of balls straight to fielders etc etc, the pirates are a bigger chance simply due to the larger luck factor, hence that is why books dont offer large odds in MLB cause of that very factor.

If Kobe makes an error like turning the ball over, big woop, if Chase utley makes an error with the bases loaded, then that has a MASSIVE impact on the game.

If you bet on the Goldcoast on Saturday, would u say u were lucky or not?

you were the one who said payroll should equal wins. You backed this up with no proof, and have seemed to have forgotten about this as your argument

You then pulled all stars out of your ass. You backed this up with no proof, and have seemed to have forgotten about this as your argument

You then used the example of good team vs bad team. After being shown that the gap is tighter in baseball then your examples you then go back to the gospel of the loser - its all luck

Yet you cannot explain how the longest regular season of any sport in the world is more about luck then seasons that are much, much shorter. Anybody with half a brain knows that the longer something goes on the more the edge will play out, and therefore the shorter a season the more luck will come into play

So, do you have any proof that baseball is all about luck? You got facts and figures to back this up. Does the number of errors per game back up your claims? (by the way, the average per game per team last year was just over 0.61)

Or is it you just haze zero clue about the game?

maybe you can explain to us why prices are different for the Yankees when C.C. Sabathia is starting and when Bartolo Colon starts. Would this price variance be greater or less if Sabathia was the starter and ARod was and wasn't in the lineup?

I await your facts and figures on why baseball is all about luck

and this answers why the teams in grand final are not more random how?

and some people around here know how I bet NRL. Brain farts by dumb footballers is a reason behind this.

Oh so you are now prediciting when players are gonna make brain farts?

Tell me, who is gonna make one tonight?

I am waiting for this.......