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San Francisco at Arizona (11/10/2008)

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Posted: #126
Crap I should of known the local was going to juice up the 1st half line. Not too comfortable with it but I guess I'll live with it. If I lose then I'll have to drop my pants at halftime and take my spankings from the wife, but that might just be something I might enjoy 
 
Cards at the half -6.5
 
Aloha and good luck to all
 
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Posted: #127
I can see it now........everyone is on the AZ and the over and midway through the 3rd quarter Warner goes down with a "oblique strain"...........BOOKS COVER!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #128
AZ 1ST 1/2 FOR ME TAKE IT TO THE BANK!!!
 
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Posted: #129
Quote Originally Posted by zOrO-GZA:

If the line goes to +10.5 ill take SF (12u)

 

BetUs has it AZ -10.5 now

 
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Posted: #130
Quote Originally Posted by bigdaddyhpd:

Crap I should of known the local was going to juice up the 1st half line. Not too comfortable with it but I guess I'll live with it. If I lose then I'll have to drop my pants at halftime and take my spankings from the wife, but that might just be something I might enjoy 
 
Cards at the half -6.5
 
Aloha and good luck to all
 
 
 
 
BD...Whats up Brother...Dont feel Bad, Mine was -6.5 -120 to bet it...Good Luck Brother
 
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Posted: #131
Quote Originally Posted by BreakaBookie:

I don't understand what you mean.... are you saying that most of the large favorites won and there we're really no upsets only ATS...  that's an interesting logic but doesn't that thought process suggest an ARIZONA ML bet???  or are you saying that since its "too easy" to bet on the Zona ML, then you will wager the SF ML.... if you are doing SF ML on the road you have bigger balls than I.... I would be worried about taking the points.... let alone a new qb, new coach, on the road, on MNF, against the best offense in the league....

 

 


That whole statement is ridiculous that he made...Maybe he could not type what he was thinking...Nobody lays the hard wood on the ML in pro football......Maybe a parlay for fun...but that is it. No Pro is laying 400 out in this league...Just too many upsets every year... I am convinced this is the hardest sport to bet. Look at Pitt yesterday.. They should have won by 15 points..it was as if BIG BUM BEN took Colts ML...
 
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Posted: #132
Quote Originally Posted by handicapped:



I too fade the public and got hit hard this weekend both in College and Pro. All games with over 65% went the public way except for Seattle and KC. The books will be looking to get some of their handle back on this MNF. I too will be looking to get some of it back and so I will ride with the books and hope this mediocre Niners team can squeak out a cover.




How did you guys get hit hard...????? Did you not have the SEAHAWKS, COLTS, CHIEFS, TITANS, FALCONS OR VIKINGS...
All of which were not public teams....Great week to fade public....
 
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Posted: #133
Quote Originally Posted by nyranger:

made a ton of cash following the money vs.line movement this week and dont see a reason that TREND shouldnt stay that way tonight. with half the season gone we can tell the bad from the good from the very bad. tonite is the very good vs. the very bad. so with that we have arizona 1st half and over and arizona over for the game as well.if that work i will hammer the 2nd half.

GREAT POINT RANGER..
All of the late money this week was correct...I am sorry I didn't run with it.
 
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Posted: #134
Arizona is not good to be laying 10 points to anyone
 
S.F. might lose but will cover
 
SF +10 and HUGE !!!!
 
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Posted: #135
dencol, yesterday the public won big.... i always use PowerRankings, Injuries, Trends, and i like to fade the public too.
 
Yesterday, all my research, PowerRankings, Trends and sht, dont work at all, the wrong public won, how? dunno. just trust me in this one, everybody are betting their sunday winnings in Arizona.
 
San Francisco +10.5 (12u)
 
BOLA!
 
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Posted: #136
IMHO..........Az -10 and under...........*see NYJ vs. LA second half......after the AZ passing game gets them a big lead they will run the clock out the second half and give "Edge" and "Tower Power" their carries......AZ is not a blowout team........AZ has something to play for and S.F. is going to lay down after the clubhouse embarrasment last week and show Singletary how much cl"ass" THEY have. Too many weapons on AZ, a rookie QB for S.F. spells trouble.
 
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Posted: #137
Quote Originally Posted by Sandman23:

Arizona is not good to be laying 10 points to anyone
 
S.F. might lose but will cover
 
SF +10 and HUGE !!!!

Do you just post so you can see you large font? Why not look up some scores from their last several games...there is a reason they are giving up 10 to San Fran... In their 5 wins they have won by 10, 21, 24, 6, and 21...mmm and the beat SF on the road bye 10 when their offense was not clicking like it is now. Hightower brings a whole new element to this team that is being overlooked.
 
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Posted: #138
Quote Originally Posted by goinggone:

Thoughts.............

The Cardinals are 3-0 at home and 3-0 against the spread at home. They win by an average score of 34-17. The Niners are coming off an embarrassing performance, and they have lost their last five games and failed to cover in each of them.

Who would you take???????



Since you asked, SF.  All those stats point to a SF cover.  Who would  you take?

Too many people on AZ.  I know they fer real and I have made plenty coin on them, but the NFL is about emotions.  Everyone on both teams is a stud, its who wants it more.  Did Singletary get his message across and did the players buy into it? If you think he did, bet the farm on SF if not, then go the other way. 

I think SF will give HOF LB the benefit of the doubt and play their hearts out and "show" the world that they are contenders (of course no one would believe them anyways).  This is MNF, man.  Everyone is going to jacked up and that means anything can happen.  I also think Refs will have a lot to do with the out come.  GLTA.

SF+9.5.
 
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Posted: #139

Quote Originally Posted by tokin33:

 San Fran + 10
 
Arizona's last game they won 34-13 on the road.
San Fran's last game they lost 34-13 at home.
 
The line opens at 10, and the public, eyeing the above, jumps all over Arizona.  Every book I could find had them as 65-70% concensus favorites the entire week.  Yet the line waivers between -10 and -9.5??  Vegas knows that most bettors suck and have a memory of 1-2 weeks.  This is a textbook trap and this game should be taught in Gambling 101.  SF is obviously not a lock, but if you fade the bait in situations like this, you win consistently.  You also find yourself getting helped by the refs.  Good luck tonight.
 

 
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Posted: #140
Also, if it weren't for a 41 yard run by Gore on the opening drive by their oppenent in 2008 and an 80yard bomb by the Rams to open the game a few weeks ago.............against the 2 teams with sub .500 records the AZ defense has only given up 1 TD.
 
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Posted: #141
The HOF linebacker is not playing...too much is being made of this story...what about Hill making his first NFL ROAD start on MNF?
 
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Posted: #142
This game is all AZ......
 
Cards      24
49ers        6
 
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Posted: #143
Quote Originally Posted by Imprezive97:

This is the perfect time for me to take a day off.  Got my ass handed to me yesterday and so did the books I always fade the public.  Cards always screw me.  49ers are terrible.  I'm laying off this one. 

Also, don't be surprised if I don't bet NFL until playoffs start.  I work on building up a bank roll all year for one sport and that is college basketball.  I was making incredible progress until I hit a big set back yesterday.  I still have plenty to work with and only lost about 25% of my bank roll yesterday.  Anyways, with the college basketball season ready to start I'm switching gears and will be focusing my efforts there. 


You any good?  I really suck (I can't seem to follow all those teams) at NCAA B ball.  I might have to coattail you.  What is your win percentage? Approx?
 
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Posted: #144
Quote Originally Posted by golfany1:

Money Line Parlay Bet

Description Risk Win FP
Nov 10 08:35 PM EST  -  Football NFL - 234 Arizona Cardinals -450 for Game  
Nov 10 07:35 PM EST  -  Basketball NBA - 706 Boston Celtics -420 for Game  
Nov 10 09:05 PM EST  -  Basketball NBA - 710 Phoenix Suns -850 for Game  
Nov 10 04:00 PM EST  -  Basketball NCAA - 712 Houston -350 for Game  
4 Team Parlay 300.00 352.34  
Risk Win
300.00 USD

352.34 USD

 
Here's my play. Cross sport monely line parlay. Looks like a safe wager eh? Houston col bb tip off in 30 mins for my 1st leg...  who's with me? ka-ching  
 
 

Terrible play in my humble opinion...You have 4 risks for almost a 1-1 payoff....One bad apple....
Make your parlay and then if you need to juice it up add 1 team with a fat ML
GL
 
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Posted: #145
FPronk On My site its -10 Az. Should I just buy the hook and go for it now??? Also what do you think of that Total??? I believe it will a Defensive Game...Warner not MObile. IF SF LB play like they should then he will have problems finding his WR bc of the pressure....LOoking more towards the Under. I have been burnt by these teams in the past thinking it would go over but If Warner moves around That usually gives them problems...
 
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Posted: #146

Quote Originally Posted by Fpronk:

I looked at this game, analyzed past games, and looked a few trends. AZ is averaging 34 points a game at home while only allowing approximately 17. On the other hand, San Fran is allowing 30 points a game on the road with there only road win coming against a Seattle team that has won two games…one of them on the road @ San Fran and the other against a crappy Rams team that just got buried yesterday. San Fran’s two win are against Seattle and the winless Detroit Lions. After this being said I don’t believe SAN FRAN can come close to covering this game. AZ will put up points tonight and cover this game. My only concern with this game is the OVER. IMO AZ will no less 31 points tonight so that leaves SAN FRAN to make up the additional 17 points need to cover. San Fran is currently averaging 22 points on the road (skewed slightly because of the 33 the put up on Seattle) and were able to toss up 17 on the Giants and 17 against the Saints. I look for a high scoring Monday Night game. Final Play : AZ -9.5 and OVER 47.

 

:: Bold Prediction ::

 

Cardinals - 38

49ers  - 20

Quote Originally Posted by Fpronk:

The HOF linebacker is not playing...too much is being made of this story...what about Hill making his first NFL ROAD start on MNF?


Yeah, unknown quantity that QB. If they get behind early, SF is dead! Having said that, if games were decided on stats and past performances, why play the game?  We should just declare Az the winner and go home. GLTA.
 
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Posted: #147
LTE - It was -10 on my site as well....I bought the hook down to -9.5 (-120)...if its 31-21 AZ I still win both bets...I am more confident in the line the the O/U...because I am unsure how many points San Fran can score...if its 13..then we need AZ to score 35. I took OVER 47.5 (-110) but for a small play.
 
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Posted: #148
Thank You Sir. I notice that your clutch in PrimeTime Games so I look into what you have to say and then think about what side Im on then roll with it or stay out. Sad to say Im a SF Fan and was from the Bay Area but have no Love for this team no more as much...Its always looking into the Favorite...when playing against SF. Good Luck...
 
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Posted: #149
Haven't posted in a looong while, but haven't stopped reading these posts.  Just wanted to offer this:
 
"Play to win the game."  Isn't that why Herm Edwards went for two points yesterday?  They had nothing to lose, and either does San Fran at this point.  Trust me, Mike Singletary was watching.  His players hate him, yes.  But tonight they'll be playing for themselves...for national tv....for self-promotion.  The first-time starter, Shaun Hill ( think that's how you spell it, please don't kill me) will play one of those care free games where he can just sling it where ever and whenever he wants.  He'll either score points or give up points.  Do you think this will be one of those grind-it-out games?  No way.  The over is the play for me.  Beware though...I'm king of the Losers. G/L all 
Stormy
 
 
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Posted: #150
CallMeBruce :: I agree with you but stats and past performances due play a part in games...why do you think there is a revenge factor or how about Tampa Bay not winning in GreenBay if the temp was under a certain degree. People believe in stats and numbers..and not just gamblers but players...Stats create heads games for everyone. SF knows this is a mismatch...Im not saying they are not going to try but they no they are at a disadvantage....plain and simple. Hey, I wish you the best of luck...but I like my play.
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