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Denver at Baltimore (10/10/2010)

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Posted: #1

Away:  Denver [2-2 ATS]
Home:  Baltimore [2-2 ATS]

Game Time: 1:00 PM
Stadium: M&T Bank Stadium

Recent Meetings:
N/A

Team Leaders:

Denver:
Passing: Kyle Orton (1419)
Rushing: Knowshon Moreno (111)
Receiving: Brandon Lloyd (454)

Baltimore:
Passing: Joe Flacco (920)
Rushing: Ray Rice (230)
Receiving: Anquan Boldin (355)

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Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

 
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Posted: #2
could go either way, +7 looks good to me here
 
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Posted: #3
This line should be 4 and 1/2 to 5 at the most.  Take the points here.
 
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Posted: #4
DEN +7 (3units): In the past 3 weeks, Denver upset the Titans, blew out the Seattle and outplayed the Colts in a loss (they had more 1st downs 23-18, and more passing yards 472-325). The Ravens may be in a let down mode after their win over Pittsburgh last week, i'm just sayin. Score: Broncos 21-Ravens 24.
 
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Posted: #5

  

RAVENS    -  7

 
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DEN has no running game making it hard for them to throw. Orton will be lucky to walk to the locker room at half time. Might be a let down for BAL considering they just had a come from behind win at PIT, but so did DEN and now travelling again. Will have to watch the line movement but feel like BAL covers easy.  Under might be the better play.
 
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Posted: #7
I like my guys to cover.... notice I said cover, GO BRONCOS
 
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Posted: #8
balt hasn/t cover fevor at home yet and now give bronco7 points thinking balt will cover this time maybe hi score
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by TheGreatest12:

This line should be 4 and 1/2 to 5 at the most.  Take the points here.


anything you know, the books know too.  There's a reason this line is up to a full touchdown.  the broncos are not ready for THIS physical of a team.  They got hammered by the steelers and ravens last year and they haven't improved as much as either of those teams, and off an inflated win against an overvalued team last week, it almost looks like they should be a good play here, but the ravens are too good to let a one dimensional team beat them here, especially considering they have the better stronger defense.

if you like the broncos here, maybe roll them out in the first half, because the ravens will wear them down over the course of this one.

BAL -7
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by ewillie169:

DEN +7 (3units): In the past 3 weeks, Denver upset the Titans, blew out the Seattle and outplayed the Colts in a loss (they had more 1st downs 23-18, and more passing yards 472-325). The Ravens may be in a let down mode after their win over Pittsburgh last week, i'm just sayin. Score: Broncos 21-Ravens 24.



seahawks have a run defense and that's it.  They are garbage on the road... they still lost and couldn't cover at home against a less competitive colts team than we've seen for a few years.  Tennessee was a good win, but titans are vastly inferior to the ravens right now and the titans are far too one dimensional.

I think a more accurate score would be 28 - 17 ravens, but it may get uglier than that
 
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Posted: #11
BRONCOS +7.5
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by wangichu:



anything you know, the books know too.  There's a reason this line is up to a full touchdown.  the broncos are not ready for THIS physical of a team.  They got hammered by the steelers and ravens last year and they haven't improved as much as either of those teams, and off an inflated win against an overvalued team last week, it almost looks like they should be a good play here, but the ravens are too good to let a one dimensional team beat them here, especially considering they have the better stronger defense.

if you like the broncos here, maybe roll them out in the first half, because the ravens will wear them down over the course of this one.

BAL -7


I look at it like this...

In a nutshell, the Broncos / Ravens game should be very interesting. We of the exciting passing attack, and they of the shutdown passing defense. But is this really the Baltimore team of old......the team that put fear in every opponent?? I say no.......I believe they are solid on D, and average on O....but not scary.

When I compare stats, I think we have a great opportunity to win back to back games on the road. I also believe that a good thing can happen on the road for 2 straight games......bonding and fewer distractions. That may be a soft benefit, but it does give one cause for optimism.

Back to the facts and stats...

Baltimore is playing good ball for sure, but their early season is a mixed bag of opponents......the Jets weren't in it in game one, Cincy needs Palmer to play like he can, Cleveland is not a primary team, and the Steelers with Ben would have won handily. Having said that, the Ravens did themselves well, and beating the Steelers is not an easy feat. Statwise the numbers are open to some debate:

- Pass D is #1.....but their backfield is not the backfield of old, and surprisingly they are 17th in the league in sacks, and 31st in interceptions, with a measly one! Sure, one can never knock a D with Lewis, Ngata and Suggs, to name a few. But this area leaves some room for us to make headway, whether or not they are #1.
- Rush D is #21.....not sure that this is a bad stat, but it is a bit confusing, given the strength of their front 7. Given that we do not have a run game (last in the league) YET, this is not a good situation for us, but 21st in the league suggests this could be the week we start to gel, and produce.

One more stat.....which applies to Baltimore's total D, they are in 23rd in forced fumbles, another uneventful stat that makes me scratch my head about their overall ability to dominate on D.

- Pass O is #15.....they have some experienced receiving talent but their QB rating is only 70.4%...not good. Flacco is vulnerable so far this year.
- Rush O is #24.....this stat is a little misleading, because Ray Rice has been injured, and could break out. BUT our run D is surprisingly strong - 12th in the NFL, and is starting to get it done.

Overall, on paper the Ravens appear to be the Ravens, on D anyway, but I don't see them as the Ravens of old, especially against the run. And those sack/interception numbers suggest that they are far from being a #1 pass D. Therefore, I do believe Orton and our ever-improving receiver corps can make some serious dents in Baltimore's pass D stats this week. I expect us to continue to exploit this aspect of our game.

As for their run game, we need to keep that little Rice down, at least for one more week. So far Baltimore has mediocre run production. And based on the last two games, we are definitely capable of keeping their run game in check. And I do not consider a 70% QB rating as something to panic about. I have a feeling that we may take advantage here, and turnovers could be a key to the game.

My gut is that we need 20 points to win this one. Baltimore has only chalked up games of - 10, 10, 24 and 17 points to date. Not very productive.

I do worry about Rice "showing up", and Housh/Boldin playing to the level of the chips on their shoulders, but we seriously have a chance on Sunday. If Kyle plays his game, our rush D plays their game, and our STs keep things (and people) in front of them......20 points should do it.

 
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Posted: #13
11/01/09 DEN 7 - BAL 30


I see the exact same score.... Baltimore is the second home game of the year coming off a HUGE divisional win... they have a swagger about them.... I feel like the Browns game was a fluke...

I expect Orton to be throwing the ball way too many times due to the fact the running game will be stuffed by one of the better running defenses in the league....


 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by wangichu:



anything you know, the books know too.  There's a reason this line is up to a full touchdown.  the broncos are not ready for THIS physical of a team.  They got hammered by the steelers and ravens last year and they haven't improved as much as either of those teams, and off an inflated win against an overvalued team last week, it almost looks like they should be a good play here, but the ravens are too good to let a one dimensional team beat them here, especially considering they have the better stronger defense.

if you like the broncos here, maybe roll them out in the first half, because the ravens will wear them down over the course of this one.

BAL -7

    RAVENS WILL WEAR THEM DOWN

Flacco  vs NFC West = 5-0  + 94.1 rating 

86 - 137 = 914 yards

7 TD's 2 INT

Ravens 22 Denver 13
 
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Posted: #15
baltimore is a better team... for the guy who said that the ravens havent coverd at home... cuz they only palyed once at home this year. and from the guy who says that their schedule has been softcome on dude they payed a great jets team on monday night in their new stadium, a tough ciny team in their home opening, a browns team who we should have beating up on and that was probaly the let down game if any looking at next week to pitt. and of course the steelers on the road. the thing that inpressed me last week was the ravens Oline against that though steelers DE. that gave flacoo time and if he has time he`s a very good QB. i dont see denver giving the ravens Oline much trubble. and for their slow start at running the ball thats cuz they havent ran the ball yet. im sure everybody will see that next week at new england. trust me if they want to run they can. and their # 1 in pass DE without ed reed n one of their starting corners dominick foxworth. their run stopping has looked sloppy at times but most of it came in that one game against the browns. the best thing about the ravens DE that i watched threwout the years is... they bend but dont break. they`ll let a team in the redzone but they simplel hold them to feildgoals 90% of the time. dever will hit a wall sunday. but thats just my opion
 
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Posted: #16

and i know it was last year and everything but baltimore played denver and i think the score was something like

RAVENS 30  BRONCOS 7

but i know that was last year and denver is a way better team and b-more is a lot worse

 
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The move to a full TD is a little unfortunate for Balt bettors, but I look at it this way. What's more likely: that we have a FG game in the 4th quarter, or that Balt has a 10-20 point lead in the 4th quarter? I think 60/40 that Balt has a 10-20 point lead.

If I was betting this line, I would buy a 1/2 point and get it down to Balt -6.5.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by TheGreatest12:



I look at it like this...

In a nutshell, the Broncos / Ravens game should be very interesting. We of the exciting passing attack, and they of the shutdown passing defense. But is this really the Baltimore team of old......the team that put fear in every opponent?? I say no.......I believe they are solid on D, and average on O....but not scary.

When I compare stats, I think we have a great opportunity to win back to back games on the road. I also believe that a good thing can happen on the road for 2 straight games......bonding and fewer distractions. That may be a soft benefit, but it does give one cause for optimism.

Back to the facts and stats...

Baltimore is playing good ball for sure, but their early season is a mixed bag of opponents......the Jets weren't in it in game one, Cincy needs Palmer to play like he can, Cleveland is not a primary team, and the Steelers with Ben would have won handily. Having said that, the Ravens did themselves well, and beating the Steelers is not an easy feat. Statwise the numbers are open to some debate:

- Pass D is #1.....but their backfield is not the backfield of old, and surprisingly they are 17th in the league in sacks, and 31st in interceptions, with a measly one! Sure, one can never knock a D with Lewis, Ngata and Suggs, to name a few. But this area leaves some room for us to make headway, whether or not they are #1.
- Rush D is #21.....not sure that this is a bad stat, but it is a bit confusing, given the strength of their front 7. Given that we do not have a run game (last in the league) YET, this is not a good situation for us, but 21st in the league suggests this could be the week we start to gel, and produce.

One more stat.....which applies to Baltimore's total D, they are in 23rd in forced fumbles, another uneventful stat that makes me scratch my head about their overall ability to dominate on D.

- Pass O is #15.....they have some experienced receiving talent but their QB rating is only 70.4%...not good. Flacco is vulnerable so far this year.
- Rush O is #24.....this stat is a little misleading, because Ray Rice has been injured, and could break out. BUT our run D is surprisingly strong - 12th in the NFL, and is starting to get it done.

Overall, on paper the Ravens appear to be the Ravens, on D anyway, but I don't see them as the Ravens of old, especially against the run. And those sack/interception numbers suggest that they are far from being a #1 pass D. Therefore, I do believe Orton and our ever-improving receiver corps can make some serious dents in Baltimore's pass D stats this week. I expect us to continue to exploit this aspect of our game.

As for their run game, we need to keep that little Rice down, at least for one more week. So far Baltimore has mediocre run production. And based on the last two games, we are definitely capable of keeping their run game in check. And I do not consider a 70% QB rating as something to panic about. I have a feeling that we may take advantage here, and turnovers could be a key to the game.

My gut is that we need 20 points to win this one. Baltimore has only chalked up games of - 10, 10, 24 and 17 points to date. Not very productive.

I do worry about Rice "showing up", and Housh/Boldin playing to the level of the chips on their shoulders, but we seriously have a chance on Sunday. If Kyle plays his game, our rush D plays their game, and our STs keep things (and people) in front of them......20 points should do it.



-the broncos defense is nowhere near pittsburgh's or the jets It isn't as good as the bengals and i'm not convinced that they're better than the browns who have been surprisingly stingy this year, so they could be the softest opponent the ravens have faced yet.

-no way in hell the broncos get a crappy running game going against ray lewis and boys.  no way in hell...

-flacco had the crapper against the elite CB's of the bengals, but otherwise has been pretty good.  I don't care what his QB rating is, that was a gritty solid performance against the best D in the game last week and he shredded cleveland the week before.

-telling me that offense hasn't gone crazy yet simply tells me they're due.  division rivals know how to play them tougher and the other team they played was the jets.  They are in good position here. While the broncos defense is decent, but only on the plus side of mediocre



 
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oh and this "ravens of old business"?  they're still the top run defense so far.  You don't need turnovers to be good.  12.5 points per game allowed is good anyway you look at it and the broncos are 1 dimensional, their offense is playing strength into strength  and that's it. 
 
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all that said, greatest, I don't want to be a d*** as I respect that you put a lot more thought into this play than a lot of people, so good luck on your other wagers but I can't wish you luck here when my money's going the other way.
 
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Posted: #21
Baltimore
 
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Quote Originally Posted by wangichu:

all that said, greatest, I don't want to be a d*** as I respect that you put a lot more thought into this play than a lot of people, so good luck on your other wagers but I can't wish you luck here when my money's going the other way.


I don't need luck.  No shot in hell of B-more covering this spread.
 
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Posted: #23
Baltimore -7!!! Gonna Roll here!!!
 
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Posted: #24

Quote Originally Posted by TheGreatest12:



I don't need luck.  No shot in hell of B-more covering this spread.

 

lol do yourself a favor dont bet the house on it

 
 
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Denver       +7   (-103)
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