MLB 2007

A’s @ Mariners Play: Mariners -108 Intrinsic Value: -124 Consider Betting Price -112 Comment: Late money on the A’s has allowed the Mariners to hit my price target, enabling me to play them for the second straight game. Expect Washburn to bounce back from a disappointing season last year, which should be stemmed by impressive home numbers. When on the Angels, Washburn loved visiting this park, and he continued that tendency last year when joining the team, putting forth an impressive 3.54 home ERA last year. Although the A’s got to him last year, he has actually had the upper hand on most of the hitters he will have to face in this game. His finesse style of pitching should be hard for the A’s to adjust to after seeing Hernandez last night, especially since their timing looked really off. The A’s lineup might be the worst in their league, a deficiency that doesn’t warrant the respect linesmakers are giving them. Blanton was a major disappointment last year, and until he can prove capable of rebounding from such an off year, I remain skeptical. He has been known to start seasons slowly, and has been very hittable on the road throughout his career. He continues to put on weight, and is nowhere near the power pitcher he was in college. His solid career numbers against the Mariners is not represented by his lifetime numbers by their players, as he has not shown to have the upper hand against any of their hitters and has in fact struggled against some. The Mariners lineup is more talented and better rounded, and are backed by a live crowd.

Thanks guys for the compliments yesterday. I may add up to three games later today depending on future line movement. Devil Rays @ Yankees Play: Devil Rays +270 Intrinsic Value: +217 Consider Betting Price: +249 Comment: It’s hard to pass up any team at this price this early in the season. This holds especially true for a pesky Devil Rays team that has always played the Yankees hard. Even when being backed by the best lineup in baseball, at this point of his career, it’s hard to make a case for Pettite warranting such a rich line. It took a while for Pettitte to find himself last year, as he was one of the worst pitchers in the league during the first half of the season. Don’t be surprised if he starts slow out of the gates once again this year, as he has always been known as a slow starter. Although Pettitte could be a problem for young and impatient lineups, he is a finesse pitcher that feels much more comfortable pitching to hitters he has a past history against. Case and point was last year, when he struggled against inferior lineups that he didn’t have hitters with a past history. The Devil Rays have one of the most underrated lineups in the American league, stockpiled with young talent who has shown a propensity to play to the level of their competition. There is not much to like about the Devil Rays pitching match up against the Yankees lineup. The Devil Rays send a mediocre starter on the mound that is backed by the worst pen in baseball, and must face the best lineup in baseball. However I feel that I am being more than compensated for this huge disadvantage with the price books are offering for people to take the Devil Rays. Even though I think the Devil Rays have the worst chance of winning on Wednesday compared to any other team, they hold one of the better values, trading over 50 basis points off of their intrinsic value.

Blue Jays @ Tigers Play: Tigers -104 Intrinsic Value: -125 Consider Betting Price: -115 Comment: It seems like books really think highly of the Blue Jays this year, but possibly too highly. It’s rare for a book to disrespect the prior years league champs this early in the season, and I won’t hesitate taking this good of a home team when undervalued. Robertson is coming off his best year, and is at a prime age to continue his upward trend. He has always been prone to have dead arm late in the season, and has put forth one of the higher disparities of pre and post all star break numbers since entering the league. Simply put, if bettors plan to back Robertson, they should do it early in the season when he is much more effective. The Blue Jays killed southpaws all last year, and it is no surprise that Robertson struggled against them. However, their lineup is not as dangerous against southpaws (but still dangerous) this year, and the loss of Molina should benefit Robertson, as no other player on last years lineup gave him more problems. There are no big bats remaining that have shown to have the upper hand against Robertson. Being backed by one of the deepest and best bullpens in the league should allow the Tigers to curtail the Blue Jays bats throughout the game. Although the Blue Jays have a potent lineup, there might not be a lineup in baseball that has shown a higher disparity of productivity at home compared to the road. When on, Burnett is one of the hardest pitchers to hit. However, being on is a guessing game with him, making him not a terribly compelling bet on the road when not getting basis points in compensation. Since coming off TJ surgery, he has been on a heavily monitored pitch count, which should hold especially true this early in the season. Combine that with the notion of his high rate of pitches per batter, and Burnett going more than five innings in this game might be hard. This does not bode well for the Blue Jays, as although they a decent bullpen, their value comes from the backend and lack the ideal depth to replace Burnett early. The Tigers have a deep lineup that hit well at home last year despite their pitch friendly confines.

Indians @ White Sox Play: White Sox -102 Intrinsic Value: -118 Consider Betting Price: -108 Comment: With the way the line moved off the open, it seems like the public has once again fallen in love with the Indians bats. As a value bettor, I will gladly go against them when this event occurs. With Contreras and Buerhle’s true worth well below their perception and market price, Garland probably provides White Sox bettors the most value, as he might be the best pitcher on the team, yet doesn’t get the same respect as the other two when it comes to market pricing. After following 05’s career year slowly, Garland bounced back late last season, posting a solid ERA well below four after the break. Although he has the propensity to allow a lot of home runs, making him vulnerable pitching in a hitters park, he has actually performed much better at home, including a solid start against the Indians here last year. He has done a good job limiting his walks, which could prevent the Indians bats from doing damage and keep him out of the wind up. The White Sox performances are correlated to emotion more than most teams, leading me to believe that this may be a good spot for them to bounce back after opening day’s embarrassment. The Indians are not the only lineup in this game that could do damage against any pitcher in the league, as the White Sox have one of the best lineups in the league, and is tailor made for this park. Today they have a good chance to showcase just that, as they are up against a pitcher that they have had past success against. Westbrook has always struggled on the road, and appears to be getting less comfortable away from home, posting a five plus road ERA last year. If he wants to turn this trend around, he will have to do it against a team whose three best hitters have had the upper hand against him. The addition of Erstad paid immediate dividends Monday, and has a good chance of doing so again today, as he managed six hits in 14 at bats against Westbrook. Westbrook’s early season limited pitch count will force a sub par bullpen to face a potent lineup that they have struggled against more than ideally suitable. Hard to pass up the White Sox at home without having to lay basis points this early in the season.

Devil Rays @ Rockies Play: Rockies -108 Intrinsic Value: -140 Consider Betting Price: -130 Comment: This is the third straight day in a row that I am backing the Rockies, as linesmakers appear to be placing a price tag nowhere near their true worth. I am not terribly excited about betting on Lopez, but feel that he should be backed by some solid run support and a fast “pulling of the plug” if he struggles. Davis is coming off a horrific year and was rewarded by a suspect signing. Although his numbers should improve off of last year, they should not improve by the amount books are apparently speculating with this line. A change of scenery might help matter, but not having Moehler (the catcher he performed much better with) calling the game should be missed. As mentioned during the past two days, the Rockies have a potent and underrated lineup, and that holds just as true when going up against left handed pitchers. Davis has always been much more effective at home, and not having a past history at Coors has been more of a liability for pitchers than an asset. Not an ideal innings eater and a small pitch count early in the season, should allow the Rockies to see this poor Diamondbacks bullpen for their third consecutive day. There is not much to like about Lopez, but the lineup he is up against compliments his style. He lacks an overpowering pitch, forcing him to depend on movement and location. Going up against a young and impatient lineup should help his strategy of forcing hitters to swing at bad pitches. Being backed by a bullpen with relievers that could eat up more than an inning at a time should allow the Rockies to pull the plug on him early. At even price at home, I will take a stab at him.

Rangers @ Angels Play: Angels -144 Intrinsic Value: -172 Consider Betting Price: -160 Comment: Like the Rockies, this is the third straight game I am on the Angels. As I am not terribly bullish on the Angels in my valuation model, it appears that most of the value on them is a byproduct of an overvaluation on the Rangers. This is the third straight game in which the Rangers overrated lineup is set up to face quality pitching from inning one to nine I this game. Although not getting the recognition compared to other young pitching prospects in the American League, Santana has a bright future ahead of him. He is also a fundamental cappers dream, as he is a very situational pitcher. Working in his favor is that he has shown one of the highest disparities of home and away numbers over the last couple of years, and generating a 3.09 home ERA in that time span has been matched by just a handful of pitchers. Although the Rangers bats have got the upper hand over Santana, they have yet to show capable of doing damage at Santana’s home, as he put forth a quality start both times in this park. Being backed by an elite bullpen should give the Angels the advantage in the later innings. McCarthy was a big name prospect a lot of teams wanted early last year, but Cooper and Williams were not willing to give up on him at all costs. This was due to him possessing one of the best 12 to 6 curves in the league. However, displaying a consistent lack of location and then confidence in this pitch gave the White Sox reason to open up options. Although mostly a bullpen pitcher, he didn’t reach six innings once last year, and shouldn’t again Wednesday. Being backed by a bullpen that lacks depth should allow the Angels improved lineup to have scoring opportunities throughout this game.

Red Sox @ Royals Play: Royals +146 Intrinsic Value: +112 Consider Betting Price: +127 Comment: Put an overrated and overpriced team up against an underrated under priced team and it is no surprise the Royals are coming with some nice value in this game. They showed on opening day that they have young bats spread around the lineup that could do their fair share of damage. They are primed for potentially another big game, as they face a power pitcher that is not afraid to go at a hitter, which is exactly what a young and aggressive lineup wants. In fact, Becket was one of the worst first pitch pitchers in baseball last year, and with a depreciating curveball, will be forced to throw more favorable pitches for the Royals again this year. Beckett has always been more comfortable at home, while the Royals are one of the more underrated home hitting teams in the league. If the Royals are once again able to jump out early and prevent Papplebon from being a factor and the Red Sox will be forced to put up mediocre pitchers on the mound after Beckett. Perez has been a big waste of talent. Along with his injuries has been a lack of motivation stemmed by the not liking how he was treated in Las Angeles. Starting the season with a new team from the beginning might revitalize his career. He pitched well in his only start against Boston last year, and might put forth another solid outing, as the Red Sox are a lineup much more potent at home and against right handed pitchers. Although not backed by a solid bullpen, I feel more than compensated for this concern with the market price I am getting.

A’s @ Mariners Play: A’s -115 Intrinsic Value: -136 Consider Betting Price: -118 Comment: Note: I got in on this line early yesterday at -105. At most shops current price, the A’s trade at a price above my target entry position. I claimed a couple of years ago that Harden and Hernandez will be the two most dominant pitchers in the American League in the upcoming years. Backing Hernandez paid off on opening day, and getting value on Harden just two days later is nice. Harden has lacked durability, but when healthy has been flat out dominant. He brings to the table a mid 90’s fastball with a lot of movement, a nasty hard slider and effective changeup. He is one of the hardest pitchers to hit, and his only concern has been his lack of control at times- a deficiency that is minimized against free swinging lineups. That is exactly what he is up against on Wednesday with the Mariners lineup. It is no surprise that Harden has owned the Mariners in the past few years, pitching 42 innings and allowing just seven runs (1.49 ERA and sub one whip). Being backed by the second best bullpen in the American league will make it really hard for the Mariners to put runs on the board throughout this game. A converted bullpen pitcher, Batista left the American league last year to become a starter for the Diamondbacks. The result was an unimpressive ERA and high Whip. The reward was a trip back to the American league and a 9 million dollar contract. In his mid 30’s, the best years are now behind him. Although up against an anemic lineup, it is a lineup that has given him a lot of problems in the past, as he has posted a five plus ERA against the A’s. Batista has actually preferred pitching on the road throughout his career, and has been noticeably easier to pick up at the night. His propensity to allow a high rate of base runners should hurt him in this game, as the A’s lack power and are best when in a manufacturing runs role. He is not known to eat up innings, which is a concern for the Mariners, as he is backed by a bullpen that now lacks depth with two key free agent losses.

Padres @ Giants Play: Padres +104 Intrinsic Value: -128 Consider Betting Price: -115 Comment: Wrong team favored in this game, but I am not surprised. Don’t get me wrong, I am a big fan of Cain, and was actually touting him before most ever heard of him. When on, his stuff is as overpowering as any. But finding that comfort zone is hard for him this early in the season. Last year he really struggled early on, as locating his pitches simply not happening. If history repeats itself, the Padres have the lineup to take advantage of this lack of control Cain is also a pitcher that is much better suited being on a team that has a solid bullpen, as his propensity to accumulate high pitch counts early in games forces an early exit. This does not bode well for him, as he is backed by a sub par bullpen. Cain dominated the Padres in every game last year, but faced them each time in the second half of the season. His propensity to be rusty early on leaves me to believe that he might struggle more this time. Either way, he shouldn’t see more than six innings, and possibly not even that. I don’t think there was a more dominant road pitcher in baseball last year compared to Young, a pitcher who has always preferred pitching on the road. Last year, he was nearly unhittable pitching on the road, posting a 2.41 ERA and 1.71 OBA. He also showed his best stuff prior to the break. Although he has yet to pitch at this park, it is a park tailor made for his fly ball pitching tendencies. Young was dominant against both right and left handed bats, a nice asset against a balanced lineup like the Giants. Being backed by the best bullpen in the national league will make it hard for the Giants to score throughout this game. I will take the basis points and the Padres.

Cubs @ Reds Play: Reds -115 Intrinsic Value: -130 Consider Betting Price: -118 Comment: Prior to seasons start I was really looking forward to fading the Reds when Arroyo was on the mound. The reason was that they have an overrated lineup and Arroyo is prone to regress from last years season, which appeared to make them an anti value play. However, that is not the case in this game. The National League had problems with Arroyo and his backwards style. This holds especially true for the Cubs, who were downright dominated by him throughout the season, managing to score just four runs in nearly 36 innings against him. Arroyo pitched his best early in the season, when hitters timing was off, as his high speed velocity and backwards tendencies were maximized. The Cubs improved lineup did not live up to the hype on opening day, and they might have to wait another day. The addition of Soriano should pay dividends today, as his aggressive style was eaten alive by Arroyo last year, as he managed just one hit in 15 at bats. Arroyo’s Achilles heal is his propensity to struggle against left handers, yet the Cubs lineup is loaded from the right side. Even though he allows a lot of home runs and pitches in a hitter’s park, he was one of the best home pitchers in baseball last year. Lilly has always been one of the worst road pitchers in baseball since entering the league. He has also been plagued throughout his career allowing the long ball, which could really be a problem pitching against a home run hitting lineup in a home run hitting park. He is also prone for a letdown start in this game. Being known to struggle mentally coupled with fighting the flu the last couple of days makes him vulnerable after the adrenaline wears off. Although backed by a solid bullpen, it is a bullpen with four pitchers who have struggled against the Reds.

I may add from one to three bets throughout the day if some line movements work in my favor. Cubs @ Reds Play: Cubs +100 Intrinsic Value: -122 Consider Betting Price: -107 Comment: Although I played the Reds yesterday, I will be one of the first to tell you this team is one of the worst in baseball, and more importantly, worse than public perception. Although the Cubs have always been public darlings, this might be the year that it is warranted, as their lineup is loaded, the same can be said for their bullpen, and they finally have a manager that is one of the better in game strategist in baseball. Without a decisive pitching edge, it’s hard to make a case for the Reds against the Cubs when having to lay basis points. Lohse has a good arsenal of pitches, but the lack of locating them has plagued his career. He has been one of the more hittable pitchers in baseball the last few years, and allowing too many baserunners, which has forced him to pitch out of the stretch more than normal, a spot where he just isn’t comfortable. When coming to the Reds halfway into last season, National League lineups had a hard time adjusting to him, but once they saw him and got more information, he became the same old Lohse and posted a six plus ERA in the last month of the season. The Cubs were one of those NL teams that had no problems hitting him, as he got dominated in his only start against them. Not known to eat up innings and being on a smaller pitch count than normal and the Reds will be forced to use what is one of the worst bullpens in baseball for a few innings in this game. Lohse’s propensity to allow the long ball will be magnified by this ballpark, and he did not pitch well here last year. Marquis is the other pitcher in this game that has yet to live up to his potential. He has an arsenal of pitches that can allow him to be one of the better pitchers in the league, but his stubbornness and propensity to tip his pitches plagued his season last year. However, those two deficiencies are fixable and have been worked on, and he put forth a solid ending to spring. Marquis has always been one of those rare pitchers that has preferred pitching on the road, and has been harder to pick up during the day as well. He has a nasty sinkerball, which is a huge asset against this lineup and in this park, as the Reds are feast or famine and need the long ball to produce runs. He has dominated Dunn in the past, the only hitter on the Reds that is seeing the ball well right now. Marquis is also backed by a deep bullpen, with two lefty specialists that could be an asset in a situational spot late in the game. Dempster looks much sharper and in better shape this year as well. Marquis also adds a bat to the lineup. The weather conditions will make the ball not travel as well compared to the first day game, which favors the Cubs, as the Reds need the long ball, as they are not as well suited for manufacturing runs when compared to the Cubs lineup.

Late public money on the Indians has made the White Sox come with some value with their current offering price. Indians @ White Sox Play: White Sox +108 Intrinsic Value: -115 Consider Betting Price: +100 Comment: I have been bearish on Buerhle for 2 years, claiming that there was now way that he would be able to keep his solid numbers (at the time) sustained for a long period of time. His pitching style and quality of pitches were simply not good enough, and he played the role of opportunist by being able to pad his numbers against inferior lineups in a majority of his starts. Finally, during the second half of the season, he witnessed some regression, but more than I was expecting. With the disrespect books have given him, it appears that his risks are fully reflected in the line. He has been known to be a stopper in the past, and that is exactly what the role he will have to play in today’s game, as he will need to stop his team from getting swept in their home opener. Although Buerhle is really plagued by the long ball, which is a huge detriment when pitching in this park, his finesse style of pitching makes him reliant on a comfort zone, something that he has obtained on his home mound, allowing him to be a more effective pitcher on this mound. Although he struggled against the Indians last year, he has had their number in years past, while the Indians lineup is better suited to hitting against power pitchers. He has dominated a few of the Indians hitters throughout his career, including their two best, Hafner and Sizemore. Not throwing hard allows him to obtain a high pitch count and go deep into games, a plus after the White Sox pen having to get a lot of work in the first couple of games. The White Sox pitchers should be motivated to put an end to this potential downward spiral. I think Sowers has the stuff to be an effective starter, but his upside potential if fully reflected in the market price of this game, and then some. He started last season sluggish, and his finesse style of pitching might have problems against a patient lineup like the White Sox. The White Sox hitters have been seeing the ball well, but have been asked to do too much due to their lack of pitching. The Indians will certainly monitor Sowers pitch count, which should get up there pretty early with the high take rate of the White Sox hitters. This does not bode well for the Indians, who lack bullpen depth, while the White Sox have gotten to see their fair share of pitches from them in the first two games.

I will more than likely add one or two come tomorrow if the lines drop a bit. Mariners @ Indians Play: Mariners +130 Intrinsic Value: -103 Consider Betting: +112 Comment: No, I don’t expect the books to open the Mariners as the favorite in this game, but I do feel they have just as good chance (slightly better) of winning in this spot. Byrd showed enough evidence last year that he is essentially done being an effective pitcher on the mound, and those quietly solid numbers he was generating in years prior will be really hard to obtain now that he is 36. He no longer can hide his inability to pitcher to left handed batters and was owned by them last year. He is also one of those rare pitchers that always put up better numbers on the road, no matter what team he pitched for. Part of the value potentially derived on the Mariners might be influenced by his solid career numbers against the team. However, all those numbers were generated while he was an effective pitcher, and in his only start against them last year, he last just three innings before getting taken out. Both these teams have actually been more productive on a three year weighted average hitting on the road as well (partially derived by the pitchers park in Seattle). Add that to Byrd never pitching effectively at home, and home field advantage is inflated in this spot. The Indians just got finished playing a hard fought series against the White Sox on Thursday where they had to use a lot of bullpen pitchers. Byrd has never been a solid innings eater, something that should hold especially true with his first start. Ramirez has yet to pitch to his potential, but being traded for Soriano shows what the Mariners think about him. He has three solid pitches that has made him effective against left handed bats, which is a huge asset going up against a team whose three starting outfielders bat from the left side, while both Hafner and Martinez do so as well. He seems to be harder to pick up under the nights with the notable disparity of numbers, and is backed by a deeper and better rested bullpen than his opponents. Twins @ White Sox Play: White Sox -120 Intrinsic Value: -170 Consider Betting Price: -156 Comment: Prior to seasons start, I was expecting for the White Sox to be an intriguing go- against, as I have been waiting for their inevitable regression from their World Series title. However, it appears that so are the linesmakers, as they have put a line out for them for the third straight game in which I deem below their intrinsic value. A couple of years ago I was expecting Silva to be a nice complementary right hander for Santana for many years to come. Last years disaster blamed by the WBC and inability to locate his sinker has left a lot to be desired. However, prior to last year, he was still very hittable and relied on his sinker (that has depreciated in value) to get him out of a lot of jams. He comes into this season with an OBA over .300. Silva also is much more effective inside his dome, and even when pitching well, was never effective as a road starter. He has also been known to start seasons slow, coming into today’s game with a career April ERA of nearly five. He was extremely vulnerable to the long ball last year once his sinker become ineffective, which is a disaster when pitching in this park. If there is one team that has his number, it is the White Sox, as his near six career ERA against them will reflect. Not suprisngly, Cellular Field has eaten him alive, allowing over seven runs per nine and a home run less than every three innings. Also night a surprise is the amount of players on the White Sox with past success against him, including new addition Erstad. Silva is backed by the best bullpen, but most of its strength is in the backend defending a lead. Pulling the trigger early on Silva might be hard with Ponson on the mound the following day. The Twins lineup is improved, but is nothing to write home about outside their dome. Vazquez’s low career WHIP shows there is upside off his high ERA. He did a good job limiting the home runs allowed in this park, and his struggles against the Twins last year came in the dome. He is a right hander that is more effective against left handed hitters, which works in his favor, as the Twins two best bats are from the left side. His bullpen is suspect and has seen a lot of work, but their pitcher throwing better than any, Aardsma had the day off yesterday. Dodgers @ Giants Play: Giants -104 Intrinsic Value: -122 Consider Betting Price: -110 Comment: Two years ago I was really high on the southpaw Lowry. Despite last year, my expectations of him being a very solid pitcher has not changed whatsoever. Lowry was plagued by two injuries throughout last season that really hindered his pitching ability, inflated his numbers, and has now created value on him coming into this year. His changeup is as good as it gets for a southpaw, and his increasing velocity to his fastball makes it that much more effective. He has established a comfort level on his home mound, pitching much more effective here, and has been harder to pick up during night games. If one team knows Lowry’s potential, it is the Dodgers, who he dominated when healthy, and pitched better against them than his numbers last year(bullpen allowed a lot of his runs). Backed by a sub par bullpen, but a bullpen that can pitch the Dodgers well. The Dodgers lineup is old, and not as effective away from home, despite playing in a hitters park. You never know what you are going to get with Penny, but another late season collapse on his part makes me think his name and reputation exceeds his worth. The bottom of the line is that he comes into the season with a not terribly impressive career WHIP and ERA, and those numbers are actually a concern on the road. Despite being a pitchers park, Penny has never had success in SF.

Blue Jays @ Devil Rays Play: Devil Rays +126 Intrinsic Value – 102 Consider Betting Price: +112 The Devil Rays should Thursday against the Yankees that they have a lot of fight in them and should not be taken lightly. The Devil Rays have shown the last few years that they are much better when defending their home park, and seem to play with an increased energy level. Their lineup is young and underrated, and have a second straight game in which they are primed to do some damage against the opponents starting pitcher. Albeit, Chacin was plagued by injuries last year, but even during his solid rookie season, he supported a dangerous whip, something he has done all throughout the minors as well. His spring was not impressive either. His wind up makes him hard on left handers, but will not be seeing many against the Rays. Home runs allowed and high walk total is becoming an increasing concern, two things you don’t want in this park. The Rays have a better chance of using their speed against him this time around as well without Molina as their catcher. The Devil Rays bats are simply underrated. You can add Shields to the underrated list as well. His high ERA last year might scare away the public, but not me. His solid K/BB ratio last year was foretelling of his potential, and having a solid sinker and groundball ratio should curtail his propensity to allow the long ball. He pitched well in spring. He was much better at home last year, and handled the Blue Jays bats at ease in his only start against them last year. The Blue Jays have a dangerous lineup, but might have the highest disparity of productivity of home vs. away if the recent past is any indicator. The Devil Rays bullpen is scary bad, but it is not too often that that problem is not reflected in the line.

Thanks guys. Finamn, I didn’t derive an intrinsic value on the Pirates game. Both have young pitchers going on the mound whose worth should have little to do with last years performances. I want to see a couple of starts from them before valuing them. Betting on that game involves a lot of speculation, and quantifying a line would be accompanied with a soft valuation. I didn’t handicap the Padres game either, as Hirsh is a pitcher that I must see first. On the surface, I see no value on the Padres. I am really surprised to see the Tigers undervalued a bit against a Royals team, but in my opinion, they are a bit in this game. I value them at -171, and would enter a position at -151. But I doubt it will drop to where I feel they warrant a play. But the time to bet on Verlander is early when he is fresh. Jibba, When I derived a line for the Cardinals game before the lines came out yesterday, I was expecting them to be a play. I valued them at -108, and thought they might be a dog on the road. But it is not the case. The big pitching disparity that we agree upon was fully factored into the opening line, and line movement has made the Cardinals a bit overvalued. With the way they are playing, they don’t warrant laying odds on the road. I would bet them at +107, something that they won’t get near in this game. But I am fine with that, as they are not that good of a team. I am adding another play soon, and will be back with a write up. Good luck.

Cubs @ Brewers Play: Brewers -116 Intrinsic Value: -130 Consider Betting Price: -117 Comment: The Cubs once again started the season playing well below their potential. They might have to wait another day before they play to form, as they are up against a favorable situational pitcher primed for a breakout season. If Bush’s age, Whip to ERA disparity ratio, and quality pitches are any future indicator, and Bush should improve nicely off of last year. No matter the team, Bush has always carried one of the higher disparities of home vs. away numbers in the league, and last year, he was one of the few pitchers that actually had a WHIP below one at home. He is hard to hit, and can limit the long ball well. His only problem is his inability to pitch to left handed hitters effectively, something that he is getting progressively better at. The Cubs best hitters are all from the right side, which he has shown little problems against. He faced the Cubs five times last year and handled them well. This holds especially true in his three home starts against them, as they were all quality starts. He is backed by a bullpen with depth and is well rested. Both lineups are much more potent at home, so home field advantage is magnified in this game. Rich Hill is a bit of a concern in this game, as his performances are heavily dependent on the type of lineup he is up against. He has a downright filthy curveball but lacks control at times, therefore, needs to go up against a lineup that lacks patience. The Brewers lack such. However, he has yet to show he could handle the pressure of pitching on the road, as his numbers last year away from home were alarming, although in limited innings. He has also been bothered by a blister problem that could be a problem. He gives up his fair share of walks, and struggles to locate against left handed bats, something that he will have to overcome in this game. His curveball takes time getting used to, and having seen him twice last year should help the Brewers lineup. He breaks down early in games, and shouldn’t see more than five innings in this game. Although he is backed by a solid bullpen, it is a bullpen that doesn’t look sharp, as a few of their pitchers seem to not have their arm strength up to par. The Brewers are better rested.

Mets @ Braves Play: Braves +102 Intrinsic Value: -114 Consider Betting: +101 Comment: Late money on the Mets put the Braves as an underdog in their home opener and a bit too hard to pass up. This holds especially true with Perez on the mound as a road favorite. The Mets will find it hard to continue their starting pitching dominance with an erratic left hander on the mound and not facing a dormant Cardinals lineup. The Braves bats are hitting the ball well and got a much needed confidence boost in Philadelphia, as they found ways to win games that they were losing last year. Perez can be overpowering, but lacks consistency and location to be a safe road favorite bet. He really struggled on the road last year, as not being comfortable lead to a high walk rate, and forcing him in “just get it over mode” allowing hitters to bat .340 against him. The Braves have a series of right handed hitters swinging the ball well, which can give Perez, who allowed right handed hitters to bat over .300 against him problems. He is backed by a solid bullpen, but a bullpen not at the level they were at last year. They are more vulnerable at the front end, and Perez is not expected to go deep into this one. I am not terribly excited about betting on Redman. But I will take my chances on him in this spot, as its always nice to have a southpaw on the hill when facing a left handed dominated lineup like the Mets. Redman had a horrible year last year, but actually put forth a WHIP under 1 against left handed bats. He also started the season solid out of the gates before tailing off. Not known by a lot of people is that the Braves now possess one of the better bullpens in the league, and not that much worse than the Mets. Soriano was a steal, and Gonzalez especially designed to play against the Phillies and Mets, who are loaded from the left side.

Suffered my first losing day of the season yesterday. I may add a couple of plays throughout the day. Tigers @ Royals Play: Royals +124 Intrinsic Value: +100 Consider Betting Price: +117 Comment: The Royals continue to get disrespected by books even though they have showed they make for a tough team to beat at home. I said prior to his last start that Meche has the pitching arsenal to be a dominant pitcher, and he showed that on opening day by running through a Red Sox lineup. His problem has always been a mental deficiency and a lack of confidence that usually was displayed in his road starts when playing for the Mariners. When at home, he was a much more effective pitcher for Seattle, and if his first start was any indication, it appears that he is doing the same for the Royals. Not only does Meche have one of the higher disparities of home vs. away numbers, but the same could be said for his day vs. night numbers, as it appears that his curveball is much harder to pick up during the day. His lifetime day ERA is 3.72 compared to his night 5.37 ERA, a disparity beyond randomness. Probably the team that he pitched the best against last year was the Tigers, putting forth a solid ERA and OBA. There is not one player in today’s lineup that can say has Meche’s number. With the lack of patience the Tigers hitters have at the plate, Meche should avoid a high pitch count, thus allowing him to go deep into this game and avoid their bullpen. The Royals bullpen is well rested. Not having pitched a meaningful game in nearly a year, Maroth appears to be getting a bit too much respect from linesmakers, especially since he was nothing special prior to his major injury. He never was effective pitching to right handed bats, which could be a problem against this underrated Royals lineup. In the past, Maroth had struggled against the Royals, and even left handed hitter DeJesus has hit him well. Lacking overpowering stuff, Maroth is dependent on the home plate ump to give him the corners, something that he will more than likely not get with West behind home plate. The Royals are a much better hitting team when playing at home. Mets @ Braves Play: Braves -114 Intrinsic Value: -128 Consider Betting Price: -115 Comment: The Mets starting pitching has been downright dominant starting off the season, but don’t be surprised to see that trend end with Glavine on the mound, as he has never been able to pitch to his former team effectively. He comes into today’s game with a career ERA in the mid 5’s against the Braves, and an OBA over .300. It appears to be a deficiency beyond fundamentals, as a mental barrier seems to be limiting Glavines ability to pitch against them. Whatever the case, Glavine will have to overcome dominance by several key hitters in the Braves lineup today, including Jones, Renteria and Francour. There might not be a pitcher in the league more dependent on the home plate umpire than Glavine, especially this late in his career. He needs the corners called to be effective, something that he will not get with Marsh behind home plate. Smoltz has the power to overcome the small zone he will be pitching against today. Glavine does not. Whenever you can get Smoltz at an undervalued price at home, it is a compelling bet. He is one of the more consistent pitchers that you can find, and a type of pitcher you want going against a hot lineup like the Mets. Smoltz had no problem against this team last year. In fact, he dominated them. He has had past success against a few key hitters on the team. He was more effective at home last year, and his pitches are much more live during day games, allowing him to put forth a career day game ERA of 3. Although it was not a factor in last night’s game, Smoltz is now backed by a very solid bullpen that was lacking last year. The addition of Soriano gives the Braves a dominant 7th inning option, while the addition of Gonzalez is a huge asset against a left handed dominated lineup. Diamondbacks @ Nationals Play: Nationals +134 Intrinsic Value: +109 Consider Betting Price: +125 Comment: I am well aware that the Nationals are the worst team in baseball. However, if you are patient, and pick your spots, they will be one of the more compelling teams to bet on over the course of the season, as you know that books will be inflating the price knowing full well squares won’t touch them. This is a good spot for a talented young pitcher like Patterson to bounce back from his embarrassing opening day performance. He has shown the ability to bounce back from poor outings the last couple of years. In the only three starts that he allowed at least five runs since 2005, he allowed only one run the following start. Patterson is more effective at home and pitched the Diamondbacks well on in limited action. Not many hitters on the team have a history against him, giving Patterson an embedded advantage. The Diamondbacks have always been a more effective hitting team at home, and are too young to be given the credit they are receiving by most. What the Nationals don’t get credit for is their bullpen, that ranks better than nearly half the teams in the league, including the Diamondbacks. Webb is one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. Webb is also one of the streakiest, as his ability to pitch his sinkerball has the propensity to disappear for long periods of time. This does not make him an ideal candidate as a bounce back starter, and he is coming off a poor outing where he struggled with his location. Webb, for some strange reason has struggled against the Nats in the past, while they bring a couple of hitters to the game with some success against him. The advantage of having a sinkerball somewhat goes to waste when pitching in such a spacious park, while the advantage of having a dominant pitcher does as well when facing the worst lineup in the league, as it is not necessary for having a dominant outing from your pitcher. Webb is still on a smaller pitch count compared to later in the season, and is backed by a sub par bullpen that has already blown some leads.

Phillies @ Marlins Play: Marlins -108 Intrinsic Value: -125 Consider Betting Price: -113 Comment: Don’t let last years horrible numbers against the Phillies fool you. There are only a handful of starters I would rather have on the mound over Willis when facing this left handed dominated lineup the Phillies bring to the plate everyday. His poor numbers that were accumulated last year was a product of horrible fielding in one game and simply not having his stuff in the other. Willis is extremely difficult on left handed bats, and has only allowed six home runs against left handed hitters in his career. He has dominated Rollins (9 for 48) and Utley (3 for 16), and posses a big match up problem for Howard. He was sharp on opening day, and has the ability to accumulate as high of a pitch count than any other lefty in the league, giving the Marlins a good chance of avoiding their suspect bullpen. Expect the Phillies dangerous lineup to be curtailed to day by a fundamental disadvantage. The Marlins have one of the most underrated lineups in baseball, and when backed by a solid starting pitcher, they bring a solid team to the ballpark. Although Myers pitched to this lineup well last year, he has struggled against this team in years past, and hasn’t found an answer for a couple of their young hitters. Myers pitches move much better during the day. He is not backed by a solid bullpen. Cardinals @ Astros Play: Astros -156 Intrinsic Value: -194 Consider Betting Price: -180 Comment: I don’t know if I could name another pitcher in the league that I would rather have on the mound at home when playing the role of stopper. Oswalt is the ideal pitcher to end a prolonged losing streak, and has a favorable match up that adds fuel to the fire. Oswalt is downright dominant at this park, coming into this game with a career 2.63 ERA, which makes a 56 basis point price awfully cheap on the surface. He ahs also always pitched this Cardinals team well and has dominated a few of their hitters. He has limited the Pujols effect, allowing just 3 home runs to him in nearly 60 at bats. Oswalt is more prone to having problems against the stacked lineup from the left side, something the Cardinals simply don’t bring to the table. The Astros bats are not the only ones that have been dormant so far this season; the Cardinals continue to struggle at the plate as well. This appears to be a spot in which the Astros receive their first win of the season. Reyes is a young pitching prospect that has a lot of upside potential, but might be brought too early, as he still isn’t there yet. He has a nasty fastball and curve combo that can overpower any lineup, but location and consistency has plagued him last year, and he is extremely vulnerable to the long ball, allowing 17 last year in just over 80 innings of work. He is just as prone to allowing the long ball to right handed hitters, which is a concern against this lineup and in this park, which is tailor made to allow the home run for right handed hitters. He did not pitch the Astros effectively last year, and having seen him twice, the Astros have an advantage most teams can’t say they do. He lacks ideal stamina and will most certainly be on a small pitch count. I would be surprised to see him go past the 5th, and is backed by a bullpen that has more problems that most people think. They lack the ideal depth to back a pitcher like Reyes. Good value on the favorite in my opinion. A’s @ Angels Play: Angels -128 Intrinsic Value: -141 Consider Betting Price: -128 Comment: There probably isn’t a pitcher in the league that I would rather have pitch to the A’s compared to Lackey. Not only has he consistently dominated them throughout his career, but now has even more extra motivation to get up and pitch against them after last year’s incident with Kendall. Lackey comes into today’s game with a career 2.89 ERA against his division rivals, including dominant starts against them last year. Lackey finished his five games against them last year with a .80 Whip. The A’s lineup might be the worst in the American League, and is prone to being overpowered by a pitcher like Lackey. It is no surprise that he has dominated many of their hitters. Being backed by a top tier bullpen will give the A’s little opportunity to put runs on the board throughout. Haren is solid, consistent, and pitched much better than his numbers would indicate in his first start. However, he has yet to prove capable of pitching this Angels lineup effectively, as this team really gave him problems last year, as he finished with a 4.71 ERA against them and an OBA approaching .300. As said already once this season, their might not be a lineup in baseball more dependent on one hitter than the Angels are with Guerrero. That said, he has dominated Haren in the past, which gives the Angels a nice embedded advantage in this game. Other games Intrinsic Values and Price Targets Brewers IV: -104 PT+115 Cubs IV: +104 PT +119 LAD IV: -130 PT: -118 SF IV +130 PT: +152 Cin: IV -172 PT: -158 Pit: IV +172 PT: +200 SD: IV: -156 PT -141 COL IV +156 PT +183 TOR IV -108 PT +105 TB: IV +108 PT: +126

Rockies @ Padres Play: Padres -138 Intrinsic Value: -156 Consider Betting Price: -141 Comment: I am not a big fan of Wells, especially this late in his career, but I do like him in this situational spot. The Rockies lineup is loaded with young talent that does not get the credit they deserve. However, it is a young lineup that tends to be over aggressive at times and is better suited going up against power pitchers. Wells crafty style will work this in his favor and work their inexperience in his favor. He also needs this spacious park to be effective, and has pitched well in this career here, allowing just 7 home runs in over 120 innings pitched, which should be able to curtail the effects of the Rockies power and propensity to drive in runs via the long ball. Wells is another lefy finesse pitcher that likes to work the corners, making his performances more correlated to the home plate umpires strike zone than most starters. Expect him to work Haun’s generous zone in his favor. He is backed by the best bullpen in the National League, which gives them a good opportunity to silence the Rockies potent lineup. Fogg never lived up to his potential, and probably never will. He is consistently bad, and rarely puts solid games together. He is one of the more hittable pitchers in the league, and is getting more hittable as seasons progress. Last year, he really struggled against the Padres and it is know surprise. Over the course of his career, he has been one of the least effective pitchers against left handed hitters. In fact, they are batting over .300 against him lifetime. This does not bode well for his chances, as the Padres will more than likely put at least four left handed bats in the lineup in this game. He is not known to go deep into games either, especially early in the season. The Rockies do not have as good of a bullpen as they had last year.

Adding yet another home team to the mix, as their appears to be a road bias set by the books and public today. Rockies @ Padres Play: Padres -138 Intrinsic Value: -156 Consider Betting Price: -141 Comment: I am not a big fan of Wells, especially this late in his career, but I do like him in this situational spot. The Rockies lineup is loaded with young talent that does not get the credit they deserve. However, it is a young lineup that tends to be over aggressive at times and is better suited going up against power pitchers. Wells crafty style will work this in his favor and work their inexperience in his favor. He also needs this spacious park to be effective, and has pitched well in this career here, allowing just 7 home runs in over 120 innings pitched, which should be able to curtail the effects of the Rockies power and propensity to drive in runs via the long ball. Wells is another lefy finesse pitcher that likes to work the corners, making his performances more correlated to the home plate umpires strike zone than most starters. Expect him to work Haun’s generous zone in his favor. He is backed by the best bullpen in the National League, which gives them a good opportunity to silence the Rockies potent lineup. Fogg never lived up to his potential, and probably never will. He is consistently bad, and rarely puts solid games together. He is one of the more hittable pitchers in the league, and is getting more hittable as seasons progress. Last year, he really struggled against the Padres and it is know surprise. Over the course of his career, he has been one of the least effective pitchers against left handed hitters. In fact, they are batting over .300 against him lifetime. This does not bode well for his chances, as the Padres will more than likely put at least four left handed bats in the lineup in this game. He is not known to go deep into games either, especially early in the season. The Rockies do not have as good of a bullpen as they had last year.

I may add a couple of plays if two teams prices continue to climb. Happy Easter. Pirates @ Reds Play: Pirates +108 Intrinsic Value: -128 Consider Betting Price: -116 Comment: No, I would never expect linesmakers to open this Pirates team a favorite on the road in this game, but I like them in this situation, and think they have a better chance of winning than losing. Don’t let Milton’s perennial low Whip fool you into thinking that one season he could lower that ERA down. He doesn’t need a high Whip to allow a lot of runs, as there are not many people more prone to the long ball than he is. This is the last thing you want when pitching in this park, especially during the day when it is much more live. It is no surprise that he put forth a home ERA well over 5 last season here, and allowed about a home run every five innings. The Pirates tagged him twice last season, and there might not be a team in baseball that has given him more problems in the past, as he comes into today’s game with a career ERA well over seven against this club. It is no surprise that there are a few hitters in Sunday’s lineup that has his number, and even new addition LaRoche is primed for a decent game as Milton has actually be less effective against left handed batters. Milton is also not in pitching shape compared to his counterpart. His spring was cut short and is just now coming off the DL with back problems. Being backed by one of the worst bullpens in the league should allow the Pirates to have scoring opportunities throughout this game. Duke is a young southpaw with a lot of upside potential. He showed what he can do in this rookie season a couple of years back when his ERA was a mind boggling 1.82 in over 80 innings of work. Last year he went through a sophomore slump, but was actually very good after the break. He looked solid in his first start of the season. He is especially tough on left handed hitters, which is ideal when going up against the Reds, whose power is mostly generated from the left side. The Reds lineup is overrated and not ideal for manufacturing runs, which might be a problem, as Duke does not allow a lot of home runs. He is backed by a deeper and better bullpen and will be on a higher pitch count this time around.

Blue Jays @ Devil Rays Play: Devil Rays +142 Intrinsic Value: -115 Consider Betting Price: +102 Comment: Here is another game in which I think the underdog has a better chance of winning than losing (which is the case for about half of the underdog bets I make). You just can’t give this many basis points to one of the most dominant home pitchers in baseball over the last three years. I am not sure why the Blue Jays are laying such odds, as the only decisive advantage they posses in this spot is their bullpen. Don’t put too much stock into Kazmir’s first outing, as he has never been that effective against the Yankees and has always struggled on the road. At home, you can’t get much better, as he comes into today’s game with a career ERA of under three in this park, and has allowed just nine home runs here in the last three seasons. The Blue Jays lineup is built to go up against southpaws, but not ones like Kazmir. He has had no problems with them in the past, and actually has pitched this team as well as any other team he has faced. This is a series in which home field advantage is magnified, as both offenses perform much better in their respective parks. Holliday has been a money maker in the past, but still is one of the more overvalued pitchers in the league, and with the inflated price tag he continues to carry, its hard to imagine him generating a positive ROI going forward. The young Devil Rays lineup has seen a lot of Holliday over the years, and his style is not a novelty to them compared to most other pitchers. This lineup is much more dangerous than they are given credit for, and are seeing the ball well right now. They have consistently been more dangerous at home through the years. The Blue Jays have a decent bullpen, but a bullpen that is overworked and is not fooling this lineup much.

Cubs @ Brewers Play: Brewers -118 Intrinsic Value: -132 Consider Betting Price: -119 Comment: The Cubs are getting progressively better with each game, but might have a hard time finishing off this road sweep. It was just a matter of time until books inflate the line on one of the public darlings. They have a difficult match up against one of the more underrated southpaws in the league, which has always been much better early in the season when his arm is fresh. He also has one of the higher disparities of home vs. away numbers, which makes it too favorable variables going on Sunday. Another variable not reflected in the line is one of the more impressive numbers of last year. Capuano pitched 26 innings against the Cubs last year and did not allow a run, and only 20 base runners. He is also backed by a relatively deep bullpen whose back end is well rested, not having to work with a lead yet. Right when the Cubs start hitting the ball well, they have the obstacle of facing a lefty, something that has happened in just two at bats all year. It’s hard to know what to expect out of Miller after having pitched just over 100 innings in the last two years. But it might be safe to say that it’s hard to imagine him being as effective as he was prior to all the injuries he has had to deal with. Betting him without getting a lot of basis points in compensation this early in the season might be risky. His velocity is way down and movement is lacking, making him more dependent on the location. Facing a tough lineup from the left side might be draining for him. The Brewers are another team that hits much better at home, as their young lineup feeds off emotion.

Cardinals @ Astros Play: Astros -118 Intrinsic Value: -173 Consider Betting Price: -159 Comment: It seems like no one wants to touch the Astros after starting off the season in the fashion that they have, but in reality, the Cardinals have not been much better. This line is way off, as there exists some hidden value. There is no denying that Wells put forth an impressive start against a talented Mets lineup last week, but I still remain skeptical, as he still hasn’t put forth a decent season in four years. His stuff has never been a problem, consistency has, and expecting him to continue to put starts like those might be wishful thinking. This might be a spot in which he gets a reality check. He has always been horrible on the road, and has struggled against the Astros in the past. If Wells pitches well, he will have to overcome past problems against hitters that are spread out top from bottom on this Astros lineup, including their two best hitters, Berkman and Lee. The Astros win on Saturday alleviated some pressure. The Cardinals bullpen is worse than most think, and not ideal in the front end. Wells should last long in this game, allowing the Cardinals to have scoring opportunities throughout this game. Last week I was really bearish about Jennings, as he was simply coming with an inflated price tag against the Priates. One week later, it is quite the opposite. Although I am not expecting him to put up the same numbers as he did last year, Jennings seems to be getting better and better, and might not have peaked yet. He was solid in his first outing at home, which is key, as he had really struggled in past starts in this park, which should boost his confidence. His sinker is tough on right handed bats, and not having much talent on the left side should alleviate Jennings propensity to struggle against left handers. Coming from the Rockies, the Cardinals did not get to see him a lot over the years, but when Jennings did face them, he pitched really well against them. He is backed by a decent and well rested bullpen. The Cardinals are slow out of the gates, and just don’t seem ready.