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UPDATE: 'Race for the White House'

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Posted: #76

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Update: Late July 27: Wisconsin back to +5 ; AZ back to +4   trump MUST win at least 7 of these    +1 trump, OHIO (18) +2 trump, Georgia (16)     STILL TIED, TEXAS (38)  +1 Biden, N.Carolina (15)     ...switch from TIED +4 Biden, Arizona (11)    +5 Biden, Wisconsin (10) +6 Biden, Michigan (16)    +7 Biden, Pennsylvania (20) +7 Biden, FLORIDA (29) Update, JULY 28: Joe Biden needs to win just 3 of these 9 states, ...OR just 2 if one is Florida! +2 trump, OHIO (18) ....trump gains 1 +2 trump, Georgia (16) +1 Biden, TEXAS (38) ....... was tied +1 Biden, N.Carolina (15) +5 Biden, Arizona (11) ....up from +4 +5 Biden, Wisconsin (10) +7 Biden, Michigan (16) ....up from +6 +7 Biden, Pennsylvania (20) +7 Biden, FLORIDA (29) ...down from +8

Ohio and Georgia has fallen. Texas and N. Carolina are next.

R.I.P. #94 MARSHAWN KNEELAND - DC4L
 
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Posted: #77

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Biden has risen now up to +9.3 specifically in battleground states, also well outside the MOE and more than enough to toss the racist out of the WH   Specifically among MODERATE voters he is a solid pick, as visrtually all the polls show.
dude u got that wrong . should be +6.2  for battlegrounds

"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
 
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Posted: #78

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Self-correction: +6.2 in battleground states.  The +9.3 number is Biden's lead nationally

ok i see u corrected already . sorry smiley_3

"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
 
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Posted: #79

Less than 95 days till election and it's starting...

A Trafalgar Group poll of 1,129 likely voters conducted between July 23 and July 25 with a 2.8 % margin of error shows that Biden’s lead has slipped to five points, 49 % to 44 %...

 

On May 31, Politico described Minnesota as “the most volatile swing state of all,”Minnesota’s ten electoral college votes are expected to play a key role in determining the winner of the 2020 presidential election.

In Minnesota, the Morning Consult poll found that Joe Biden’s lead over President Trump is just three points, 47 % to 44%, which is within the poll’s 3.8 percent margin of error.

 
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Posted: #80

Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964:

ok i see u corrected already . sorry

                                             goodpost

 

 
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Posted: #81

Update, JULY 29:



Joe Biden needs to win just 3 of these 9 states,
...OR just 2 if one is Florida!



trump MUST win at least 7 of these:

+2 trump, OHIO (18)

+1 trump, Georgia (15)


+1 Biden, TEXAS (38)  

+2 Biden, N.Carolina (15)

+4 Biden, Arizona (11)

+5 Biden, Pennsylvania (20)

+6 Biden, Wisconsin (10)

+6 Biden, FLORIDA (29)  

+8 Biden, Michigan (16)  

https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/
.

 
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Posted: #82

 

GALLUP out with new survey:

 

trump's job approval = -15 in line with many other polls

right-biased Rasmussen has -3

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/Gallup_July_1-23.pdf

 
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Posted: #83

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Update, JULY 29: Joe Biden needs to win just 3 of these 9 states, ...OR just 2 if one is Florida! trump MUST win at least 7 of these: +2 trump, OHIO (18) +1 trump, Georgia (15) +1 Biden, TEXAS (38)   +2 Biden, N.Carolina (15) +4 Biden, Arizona (11) +5 Biden, Pennsylvania (20) +6 Biden, Wisconsin (10) +6 Biden, FLORIDA (29)   +8 Biden, Michigan (16)   https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/ .
northcarolina is down to 1 now

"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
 
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Posted: #84

ElectionBettingOdds (dot) com monitors betting odds at Betfair (dot) com.  The big difference is that polls tabulate voters' choices at any particular moment in time, while EBO monitors what bettors believe will actually happen on November 3, 2020.

EBO currently has Biden at 59.6% and Trump at 37.3%.  They include other choices which makes sense; both candidates are quite old and particularly vulnerable to COVID-19 (especially vulnerable when refusing to wear a mask like a rational, intelligent person would do), so there is no certainty either will actually be on the ballots in November.

I am shocked that the Senate control battle is viewed even more favorably for the Democrats:  61.9% Blue vs. 38.0% Red (I am assuming a rounding error).

Some closely-watched states with bettors' % choices:

DEM:  AZ 60.3, WI 68.8, MI 74.0, PA 70.4, NC 56.4, FL 59.3

REP:  TX 64.9, IA 60.4, OH 58.9, GA 58.9

I am posting this information for the Covers political forum.  I will not wager even $5 on any political campaign.

 
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Posted: #85

For SarasotaSlim, EBO has MN DEM 77.1%.

 
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Posted: #86

Update, JULY 31:


Joe Biden needs to win  3  of these 9 states,
...OR just 2 if one is Florida!

trump MUST win at least 7 of these:

+2 trump, OHIO (18)

+1 trump, Georgia (15)


+1 Biden, TEXAS (38)  

+1 Biden, N.Carolina (15)

+4 Biden, Arizona (11)

+4 Biden, FLORIDA (29) ...DOWN from +6

+6 Biden, Pennsylvania (20) ...UP from +5

+6 Biden, Wisconsin (10)

+7 Biden, Michigan (16)  

Source:  https://tinyurl.com/yamph8b3

*NOTE: This is a LINK to the originating article. TinyURL is a "web utility" to shorten
longer urls.....It's NOT a political opinion site or news site...Just wanted to make this
clear so that no harrassing-troll gets all "confused"........... again.

 
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Posted: #87

August 01:

Current presidential polling in key swing states

(electoral votes in parenthesis)

*Source: RealClearPolitics site
These stats differ slightly from 270towin.com (the post above)

+7.0 Biden Michigan (16)
+6.0 Biden FLORIDA (29)
+6.0 Biden Pennsylvania (20)
+5.0 Biden Wisconsin (10)
+3.4 Biden N.Carolina (15)
+3.2 Biden Arizona (11)
+1.5 Biden Ohio (28)
 
- TIED -  Texas (38)
 
+2.0 trump Georgia (15)

 
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Posted: #88

Update:  August 01

Presidential election, nationwide: +7.8 Biden

 

*Previously this mean avg was showing +9.1

Biden's lead had beeen raised significantly by a mid-July outlier Quinnipiac poll, +15

His true mean among all polls over recent weeks hoovers around 7.5 to 8.0

 

 
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Posted: #89

Update, August 01:


Joe Biden needs to win  3  of these 9 states,
...OR just 2 if one is Florida!

trump MUST win at least 7 of these:

+2 trump, OHIO (18)


TIED again, Georgia (15)

+1 Biden, TEXAS (38)     ...I still say Texas goes red

+1 Biden, N.Carolina (15)

+4 Biden, Arizona (11)

+4 Biden, FLORIDA (29)  

+6 Biden, Pennsylvania (20)  

+6 Biden, Wisconsin (10)

+7 Biden, Michigan (16)  

Source:  https://tinyurl.com/yamph8b3

...I still say Texas goes red, but the voter demographics have changed since 2016, so it could be very close. Likewise, there are similar changes in demographics in Florida and Arizona as well, favoring Democrats.

 
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Posted: #90

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Update, August 01: Joe Biden needs to win  3  of these 9 states, ...OR just 2 if one is Florida! trump MUST win at least 7 of these: +2 trump, OHIO (18) TIED again, Georgia (15) +1 Biden, TEXAS (38)     ...I still say Texas goes red +1 Biden, N.Carolina (15) +4 Biden, Arizona (11) +4 Biden, FLORIDA (29)   +6 Biden, Pennsylvania (20)   +6 Biden, Wisconsin (10) +7 Biden, Michigan (16)   Source:  https://tinyurl.com/yamph8b3 ...I still say Texas goes red, but the voter demographics have changed since 2016, so it could be very close. Likewise, there are similar changes in demographics in Florida and Arizona as well, favoring Democrats.
wisconsin up larger now

"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
 
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Posted: #91

Update, August 03:  92 days to go


Joe Biden needs to win  3  of these 9 states,
...OR just 2 if one is Florida!

trump MUST win at least 7 of these:

+2 trump, OHIO (18)


TIED again, Georgia (15)

+1 Biden, TEXAS (38)     ...I still say Texas goes red

+1 Biden, N.Carolina (15)

+4 Biden, Arizona (11)

+4 Biden, FLORIDA (29)  

+6 Biden, Pennsylvania (20)  

+7 Biden, Wisconsin (10)   ...UP from +6

+7 Biden, Michigan (16)  

Source:  https://tinyurl.com/yamph8b3

...I still say Texas goes red, but the voter demographics have changed since 2016, so it could be very close. Likewise, there are similar changes in demographics in Florida and Arizona as well, favoring Democrats.

 
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Posted: #92

August 03:

Current presidential polling in key swing states

(electoral votes in parenthesis)

*Source: RealClearPolitics site
These stats differ slightly from 270towin.com (the post above)

Joe Biden only needs to win any 3 of these!

+7.2 Biden Michigan (16)       ...UP from +7.0
+6.2 Biden FLORIDA (29)       ...UP from +6.0
+6.0 Biden Pennsylvania (20)
+5.0 Biden Wisconsin (10)
+3.7 Biden N.Carolina (15)    ...UP from +3.4
+3.4 Biden Arizona (11)        ...UP from +3.2
+1.9 Biden Ohio (28)            ...UP from +1.5
 
- TIED -  Texas (38)
 
+1.8 *trump Georgia (15)   ...drop from +2.0

 
 
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Posted: #93

“No Republican has ever been elected or reelected in American history
without carrying Ohio, so there’s a particular burden on Trump and his
allies and supporters to compete effectively in Ohio,” Mr. Green said.
“These numbers forecast a very competitive race in the state.”
Source: https://tinyurl.com/y4y5v75r

BIDEN is +2 in the RCP average of polls, but
trump is +2 in the 270towin average of polls.

 
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Posted: #94

Update Aug 4

 

Current presidential polling in key swing states

(electoral votes in parenthesis)

*Source: RealClearPolitics site
These stats differ slightly from 270towin.com (the post above)

Joe Biden only needs to win any 3 of these!

+7.3 Biden Michigan (16)       ...UP from +7.0
+6.2 Biden FLORIDA (29)       ...UP from +6.0
+6.0 Biden Pennsylvania (20)
+5.0 Biden Wisconsin (10)
+3.8 Biden N.Carolina (15)    ...UP from +3.4
+3.5 Biden Arizona (11)        ...UP from +3.2
+1.9 Biden Ohio (28)            ...UP from +1.5
 
- TIED -  Texas (38)
 
+1.7 *trump Georgia (15)   ...drop from +2.0

 
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Posted: #95

dude   ohio only gets 18 electoral votes

that site now lists a drop for joe in fla but a gain in ohio and n.carolina

 

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Posted: #96

Update, after Aug 6:  Biden leads +6.4 nationally

 

Current presidential polling in key SWING STATES:


*Source: RealClearPolitics site
These stats differ slightly from 270towin.com

Joe Biden only needs to win any 3 of these .....or just 2 if one is Florida!

+6.3  Biden  Michigan (16)      ...down from +7.0
+4.0  Biden  FLORIDA (29)      ...down from +6.0
+4.7  Biden  Pennsylvania (20) ...down from +6.0
+5.0  Biden  Wisconsin (10)
+4.4  Biden  N.Carolina (15)    ...UP from +3.7
+3.6  Biden  Arizona (11)        ...UP from +3.2
+2.1  Biden  Ohio (18)            ...UP from +1.9
 
- TIED -  Texas (38)
 
+1.6 *trump Georgia (15)   ...drop from +2.0

 
 
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Posted: #97

And today the early polls just pushed MICHIGAN back up to +7.5

 
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Posted: #98

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

And today the early polls just pushed MICHIGAN back up to +7.5

 

Finally......Texas puts trump ahead +2

 
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Posted: #99

Current presidential polling in key SWING STATES:


*Source: RealClearPolitics site
(These stats differ slightly from 270towin.com)

Joe Biden only needs to win any 3 of these .....or just 2 if one is Florida!

+6.3  Biden  Michigan (16)    
+4.0  Biden  FLORIDA (29)     
+5.0  Biden  Pennsylvania (20) ...UP from +4.7
+5.3  Biden  Wisconsin (10)   ...UP from +5.0
+1.0  Biden  N.Carolina (15) ...DOWN from +4.4 an_light
+2.2  Biden  Arizona (11)   ...DOWN from +3.6  an_light
+2.2  Biden  Ohio (18)     ...UP from +2.1            
 
+2.0 trump  Texas (38)  
 
+1.0 trump Georgia (15)   ...DOWN from +2.0

 
 
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Posted: #100

Looks like Biden/Harris in a landslide...an_popcorn

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