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UPDATE: 'Race for the White House'

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Posts: 270

BuckFalls

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2016

Posts: 827

Posted: Oct. 31, 2020 - 1:09 AM ET #251

Quote Originally Posted by DeezyAZ81:

Quote Originally Posted by sundance: Blockbuster! 31% of black voters intend to cast their votes for President Trump in latest poll from Rasmussen. Trump wins in a landslide with 'only' 25% of the black vote! Americans leaving the plantation in huge numbers! Tuesday, 3 November is potentially the end of the Democratic Party! No chance. If you think 31% of Black voters are honestly voting Trump you are either high or braindead. This further solidifies why Rasmussen is a complete joke of a poll.

After reading some of his posts,brain dead gets my vote.Ive seen a ton of high people,but high and delusional are 2 completely different things.

bett0r

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2016

Posts: 47

Posted: Oct. 31, 2020 - 6:03 AM ET #252

Very interesting results when you type #electionpoll on Twitter: https://twitter.com/search?q=%23electionpoll&src=typed_query

What's funny is that the guy who made this Twitter poll is a Biden supporter.

fubah2

Legend

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 54133

Posted: Oct. 31, 2020 - 6:51 AM ET #253

Oct 30:

Note: Hillary was +3.0 pts within 4 days of 2016 election, and finished +2.1 pts
At the same point, Joe Biden is up +7.5 pts...

With 3rd party candidates (ie, the actual 2020 outlook):

+7.5 @270 to win ......UP 0.1 since yesterday
+7.8 @RealClearPolitics

I_Need_A_Detox

Banned

Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 27139

Posted: Oct. 31, 2020 - 11:32 AM ET #254

Notable: Trump has taken the RCP average lead in Arizona for the first time since March.

It’s happening.

an_dance

KellyM_1964

MVP

Joined: May, 2009

Posts: 16793

Posted: Oct. 31, 2020 - 7:24 PM ET #255

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Oct 30:

Note: Hillary was +3.0 pts within 4 days of 2016 election, and finished +2.1 pts
At the same point, Joe Biden is up +7.5 pts...

With 3rd party candidates (ie, the actual 2020 outlook):

+7.5 @270 to win ......UP 0.1 since yesterday
+7.8 @RealClearPolitics

thats largely being overlooked by the rump lickers

biden is up way more than clinton was at this point

"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump

fubah2

Legend

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 54133

Posted: Nov. 1, 2020 - 8:37 AM ET #256

Late, October 31: 270towin poll of polls

trump must win SIX of these at least !

Joe Biden's "swing state" lead...

-2.0 OHIO (trump leads Ohio)
+0.5 Florida
+0.8 Arizona .....has narrowed significantly
+1.2 Georgia
+1.5 N.Carolina
+4.7 Pennsylvania
+7.1 Michigan
+7.6 Wisconsin

I_Need_A_Detox

Banned

Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 27139

Posted: Nov. 1, 2020 - 9:01 AM ET #257

Trump will win Az, Fl, Ohio, NC, GA, and Penn

He needs to pull the upset by taking either Wisconsin or Michigan

2016 Michigan was 47.5% Trump and 47.27% Clinton

2016 Wisconsin was 47.22% Trump and 46.25% Clinton

I_Need_A_Detox

Banned

Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 27139

Posted: Nov. 1, 2020 - 9:11 AM ET #258

Clinton was a much stronger candidate than Biden

I_Need_A_Detox

Banned

Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 27139

Posted: Nov. 1, 2020 - 9:14 AM ET #259

That’s why Obama was in Michigan this weekend

an_light

fubah2

Legend

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 54133

Posted: Nov. 1, 2020 - 10:07 AM ET #260

Quote Originally Posted by I_Need_A_Detox:

"Clinton was a much stronger candidate than Biden"

-- by I_Need_A_Detox

Clinton had bad NEGATIVE favorability rating of -12 pts.

Biden's is net POSITIVE +11

Note: Hillary was +3.0 pts within 4 days of 2016 election, and finished +2.1 pts
At the same point, Joe Biden is up +7.5 pts...

With 3rd party candidates (ie, the actual 2020 outlook):

+7.5 @270 to win ......UP 0.1 since yesterday
+7.8 @RealClearPolitics

I_Need_A_Detox

Banned

Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 27139

Posted: Nov. 1, 2020 - 10:23 AM ET #261

Who cares about favorability? Trump was -22 in 2016. Now he’s -9 in the latest poll (NBC/WSJ).

fubah2

Legend

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 54133

Posted: Nov. 1, 2020 - 10:24 AM ET #262

Late, October 31:
FiveThirtyEight website, average of polls:

Biden only needs to win 3!

Joe Biden's "swing state" lead...

-1.0 OHIO (trump leads Ohio)
+1.6 Georgia
+1.7 Florida
+2.4 N.Carolina
+3.1 Arizona
+4.9 Pennsylvania
+8.1 Wisconsin
+8.1 Michigan

KellyM_1964

MVP

Joined: May, 2009

Posts: 16793

Posted: Nov. 1, 2020 - 10:31 AM ET #263

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Late, October 31: 270towin poll of polls

trump must win SIX of these at least !

Joe Biden's "swing state" lead...

-2.0 OHIO (trump leads Ohio)
+0.5 Florida
+0.8 Arizona .....has narrowed significantly
+1.2 Georgia
+1.5 N.Carolina
+4.7 Pennsylvania
+7.1 Michigan
+7.6 Wisconsin

all biden needs is those 3 in the rust belt . all the others will b a bonus

"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump

fubah2

Legend

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 54133

Posted: Nov. 1, 2020 - 2:44 PM ET #264

Late, October 31:
Real Clear Politics website, average of polls:
*NOTE: RCP is a right-biased website

Biden only needs to win 3 of these!!

Joe Biden's "swing state" lead...

TIED OHIO
TIED Arizona
+0.6 Georgia
+1.2 Florida
+2.0 N.Carolina
+4.0 Pennsylvania
+5.7 Wisconsin
+7.0 Michigan

thirdperson

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2005

Posts: 9497

Posted: Nov. 1, 2020 - 3:47 PM ET #265

US stockmarket predicts a Biden victory. The incumbent president has lost 88% of the time when S&P 500 fell in the 3 months leading up to election. No incumbent has ever won a second term when there has been a recession in the 2 years before election.

fubah2

Legend

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 54133

Posted: Nov. 1, 2020 - 7:40 PM ET #266

Quote Originally Posted by thirdperson:

US stockmarket predicts a Biden victory.
The incumbent president has lost 88% of the time
when S&P 500 fell in the 3 months leading up to election.

No incumbent has ever won a second term when there has been
a recession in the 2 years before election.

Solid info!! thumbs_up

KellyM_1964

MVP

Joined: May, 2009

Posts: 16793

Posted: Nov. 2, 2020 - 2:02 PM ET #267

Quote Originally Posted by thirdperson:

US stockmarket predicts a Biden victory.

The incumbent president has lost 88% of the time when S&P 500 fell in the 3 months leading up to election.

No incumbent has ever won a second term when there has been a recession in the 2 years before election.

rump will lose and lose badly but he wont leave peacefully

"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump

fubah2

Legend

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 54133

Posted: Nov. 9, 2020 - 5:22 AM ET #268

Quote Originally Posted by thirdperson:

US stockmarket predicts a Biden victory.

The incumbent president has lost 88% of the time when S&P 500 fell in the 3 months leading up to election.

No incumbent has ever won a second term when there has been a recession in the 2 years before election.

an_light

fubah2

Legend

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 54133

Posted: Nov. 11, 2020 - 11:54 AM ET #269

CNN Projection:
President Trump wins Alaska
and all 3 electoral votes!

KellyM_1964

MVP

Joined: May, 2009

Posts: 16793

Posted: Nov. 11, 2020 - 5:18 PM ET #270

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

CNN Projection: President Trump wins Alaska and all 3 electoral votes!

biggest state in the union goes all in for rump ! thumbs_up

rump might win now an_boggienight

"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump

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UPDATE: 'Race for the White House'

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