The Biden Presidency: Repairing America.....again

No, and that is not the intent nor the point. 

Biden administration announces $50 billion investment to improve water infrastructure.  Plan is to replace old lead pipes within 10 years.  Over 9 million households are connected to lead pipes.  Environmental protection agency says there is no safe level of exposure to lead especially for children.

Greatly put, RAIDERS... "Influence", .... not "Control."   

And true to form.  Biden shut down the XL Pipeline Project on "DAY 1."  

@Rush51

 Again..

Keystone does not influence production or supply, it is a conduit to take chemically toxic sour crude from Alberta to Texas so Valero can refine it. Keystone being used or not means zero to world supply.

If Canada wants to process sour then build a stupid refinery in BC and build a pipeline from Alberta to BC and then the issue is resolved. It is not the responsibility or obligation of the US to facilitate the transfer of chemically toxic sour crude so Valero can refine it. Canada has refineries, it is their obligation to build a sour refinery and a pipeline, it is not the responsibility of Biden or the US to make things easier on Canada or Valero.

@Rush51 

Greatly put, RAIDERS... "Influence", .... not "Control."   

And true to form.  Biden shut down the XL Pipeline Project on "DAY 1."  

It is not just that project.  That was just one he used as an example of something that would move the markets even though the market benefits would be negligible and years away. 
There are the leases, regulations, and restrictions that absolutely affect the markets. 

As I pointed out above, the markets started moving when Biden looked poised to win, again when he won, and again when he was inaugurated and implemented his announced ‘plans and sentiments’.  

This is by far the biggest jump it has made on any administration changeover and all because of rhetoric on the campaign trail and then realization of it once in office. 

No other President has had it increase every Feb from the previous Nov — this is the ‘anticipatory’ aspect of this market.  I know it is only 3 years — but it is a bad trend for him.

This market is by far the most easily influenced and dynamic one.  If an administration is perceived as ‘industry-friendly’ or not — it will react on that alone. 

Right..

The markets moved because of Biden, the markets moved because of Trump. That is sappy sweet but inaccurate.

The markets moved for these reasons- demand goes up, demand goes down, supply goes up, supply goes down. That is it in totality. If this Biden bashing theory was accurate then the following is true- capitalism is gone, we now live in a government owned oil industry and the POTUS controls domestic supply and demand. The US supply is at all time lows because a DEM is in office and DEMS hate oil. 

Neither of those is true, the NA production has been at a steady climb for Biden's term and is now at a historic high, not at a DEM controlled hated low, NA production has NEVER been higher.

What happened outside of a swap from Grimace to goofball is demand went from a recession to expansion. Demand reduced when COVID hit and thus prices went down, that had nothing to do with Trump or Biden. As Biden came into office the brunt of Covid was starting to ease and that immediately meant demand recession would reverse and it did. At the same time OPEC started production cuts so coupled with a demand increase it meant oil went from near ZERO to 40-50-60.

THEN and this also has nothing to do with Biden or Trump, the FED began to reverse ZIRP and went from negative rates to neutral and from neutral to positive rates and those impacts hit all markets including commodities. ZIRP allowed fringe speculative fracking and production which does not make economic sense without it and when oil went to zero, banks stopped lending to fringe frackers and explorers the supply from those sources dried up and many small, a few mid firms went away and large firms stopped expansion plans...that is a fact it is industry knowledge it take no time to find this refresher as mentioned here by me many times.

That spec production cycled through from exploration to delivery and out, that impacted supply for a short time until prices began to rise and the majors/minors entered the market and started ramping production as they always do with higher prices. Now we are at historic highs on production and demand is also strong, OPEC supply is not at historic highs and global demand is strong, THAT is why oil is here and gas is here at current levels.

ZERO to do with Biden, ZERO to do with Trump. But hey who needs logic when you have a partisan snuggle blankie instead?

Yes, it is supply and demand of course.  But the point is that oil is a very volatile commodity and is fickle to anything that may increase or decrease supply or demand.

So, news of a war in an oil-producing area affects price.  Even tension, or even a rumor of a potential conflict affects prices — because of the perceived effect on supply.

Oil price is, more or less, set by speculators that are anticipating what prices will be in the future based on current, or future, actions that will influence these markets.

Supply is also another issue.  Just because you have a large supply it does not necessarily bode as well as you might think.  Now you still have to have the ability to get it to the refineries and refine it.  There are many current issue with that, especially the fact that the USA has not been building more refineries.  Then when you halt or start restricting and regulating transport lines and drilling, this will affect pricing as well.

It cannot just be that Biden was (and still is) the ‘unluckiest’ President each year.  It cannot be that the post-pandemic demand caught the administration flat-footed.  You can see the pre-pandemic trend.  Then the administration used the reserve supply and did not replenish it when the price was down.

The speculators realized that the Biden Administration was going to be ‘unfriendly’ to fossil-fuels.  Then when Biden got in office and implemented things that reinforced their speculations, of course speculators reacted.

Oil is what we refer to as maybe the most inelastic of commodities.  This absolutely has to be factored in when evaluating the supply and demand issues with oil.

So, just because you increase the supply it does not mean that the demand will increase and vice-versa.  It is even more noticeable with demand and price changes.  Prices will not affect the demand all that much —especially in the shorter time frame.

If this is all that difficult to grasp, I would recommend any rudimentary class on economics and one on commodities that keys in on energy.

There are probably some good videos online that address this.

All economists understand a President cannot control the energy markets.  But they all acknowledge that their policies and sentiment can have an affect on them and influence prices to an extent.

It is very easy to read various experts on this if the numbers are not convincing enough.

For example, look at these article from earlier and realize what these guys are saying — the markets are being influenced by this administration’s negative policies and bleak outlook for the industry:

It’s impossible to exaggerate President Joe Biden’s fecklessness on energy policy. Incredibly, it’s only grown worse in the wake of the Ukraine war.

On Tuesday, Biden rushed to declare a US embargo on buying Russian oil — clearly not out of any considered policy decision, but simply because Democrats in Congress joined Republicans in pushing the idea.

The move has risks, such as pushing an increasingly erratic Vladimir Putin to stop all Russia’s energy sales to the West, which would send global prices soaring even further.

Worse, the Bidenites are now looking to replace Russian oil with Venezuelan crude — no matter that that nation’s dictatorship is as evil as Putin’s. And they’re rushing to a new Iran deal, empowering that vile regime in hopes of getting Tehran’s oil back on the global market.

Meanwhile, the White House is pretending that Putin’s war is the only cause of the crisis, ignoring the fact that energy prices started soaring as soon as Biden took office and declared war on the US fossil-fuel industry: shutting down pipelines, denying new drilling permits and promising a renewed regulatory and tax attack on any who dare to drill.

Team Biden and Democrats like New York’s Gov. Kathy Hochul are also frowning on suggestions to suspend taxes on gasoline, home-heating oil and the like — though federal, state and local levies accounted for 22% of pump prices pre-war.

In other words, a nationwide suspension of gas taxes would do a whole lot more for hard-hit consumers than Biden’s farcical release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Even with other nations joining in, that’s less than two days’ global supply, offering a best brief relief.

Democrats inevitably say that unleashing US drillers won’t have an immediate impact. That’s only partly true, since markets respond fast to a changing outlook. Plus, many companies know where they’d like to move next, and would move rapidly if they believed the target was off their back.

More important, it would definitely boost US supply (and exports to our allies) within months — while this energy shock could well be long-lasting.

It doesn’t matter where the fossil fuels we burn come from when it comes to climate change, and the simple fact is that wind and solar aren’t even growing fast enough to meet rising global demand. (For that matter, the US fossil-fuel industry is a lot cleaner than Russia’s, Venezuela’s or Iran’s. And while more nuclear plants could help, they take years to build.)

So it’s utter madness to empower America’s enemies — civilization’s enemies — by refusing to exploit our own resources out of some dim idea that it brings the world closer to a carbon-free future.

And it’s beyond vile for Biden to pretend it’s all Putin’s fault, hoping the American people are too dim to notice their own costs started soaring long before the invasion of Ukraine.

How far do the president’s polls have to sink before the White House starts facing reality, and stop pretending it can spin away the disasters it keeps producing?

If President Joe Biden came out forcefully on the side of increasing US oil production, the price of a barrel could fall quickly, experts told The Post — even if it takes a while to bring that new energy online.

Just look at what happened Wednesday in the wake of the United Arab Emirates and Iraq saying they’d up production by an estimated 800,000 barrels a day: The global price of oil dropped by $22 a barrel within minutes.

If Biden signaled full-throated support for US drillers to get to work — and perhaps allowed the re-starting of the Keystone XL Pipeline from Canada — global oil prices could similarly fall sharply, the industry experts told The Post.

“Biden could go to the oil and gas industry and say, ‘OK, I’ve said we’re going to get off oil and gas and that you guys are yesterday’s industry, but I’m going to drop that,'” surmised Myron Ebell, the director of the Competitive Enterprise Institute’s Center for Energy and Environment. “Part of the run up in oil prices is the psychology of it,” he said.

Biden could say to the industry: “‘I need your help,'” Ebell said. But so far, it’s been crickets, according to oil executives who’ve been willing to speak out.

Just last week, CEO Rick Muncrief of Devon Energy — a large driller worth around $40 billion — told Bloomberg that he’d be happy to talk to US officials about upping production. But there’s been no call. “I’m a little mystified that there hasn’t been some dialog,” he said. “It’s not been that long ago that we were asked to drill less, not more,” he said. “They need to be talking about what is it they would really like U.S. producers to do.”

That’s the kind of inaction that’s keeping prices high — up more than 40% since Russia invaded Ukraine and the war has worsened — and up nearly 90% over the past year when looking at the global Brent crude benchmark, which has risen as high as $123 a barrel in recent days when compared to its level of around $63 a year ago.

Biden is facing renewed criticism over his restrictive energy policies – with experts noting the administration’s frosty relationship with US producers has added to the problem.

“There’s an invisible hand in the oil market – If there’s a perception that, ‘Hey, if this guy is going to free up this pipeline, he might start freeing up some leases and stuff,’” then that could help push prices down, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group.

“It would have an immediate psychological impact on price,” Flynn said – noting a Keystone reboot announcement that would bring oil from the tar sands of Canada could knock off up to $10 from the price of oil just at the stroke of a pen, even if the pipeline were years away from production.

The president, meanwhile, blamed Vladimir Putin this week as national average gas prices hit a record $4.25 in response to the US import ban.

But US firms have less incentive to produce more oil while facing heavy regulations – meaning they’re more likely to leave the oil in the ground and drill in the future when prices are higher, says Benjamin Zycher of the American Enterprise Institute. He contends under the “Green New Deal” regulatory environment, the atmosphere in Washington is decidedly anti-oil.

“If you really believe they’re going to be imposing regulatory and other constraints on the development of fossil fuel resources and investment in fossil fuel infrastructure, then higher prices are the result down the road — and therefore are the result now,” Zycher told The Post.

The administration is reportedly in diplomatic talks with longtime foes Venezuela and Iran as it looks for alternative sources to stave off the financial crunch facing US motorists — but outreach to US firms has been limited.

So, yes, what Biden is doing is completely antithetical to what needs to be done and opposite of the sentiment that Trump brought to the industry.

For sure, the global market can overcome one country's negative-sentiment.  But to put your country in this situation because of the push from an agenda-driven group is ridiculous.

It would be very different if sure-fire 'green energy' were readily available at the supply that is needed -- but it is not.

So, why not do some of the things that could alleviate the burden on your folks and change the sentiment of the speculators.  

It is hard-headed arrogance and agenda-driven policy. 

At least Trump was able to admit he was wrong and worked to stabilize the market somewhat.

Biden's guys -- because Biden is not making any decisions on his own -- will never admit they are wrong.

This is definitely something that can hurt them in the elections if it is coupled with so many other rising prices and bad economy.

@Raiders22

 Just because Biden and the DEMS think that relying on a cartel based system for our energy is a bad idea does not mean that it shifts the supply curve. I am not interested in your back handed sarcastic references either, I do not counsel you and suggest you take basic econ classes so please if you are unable to show even a basic level of class and respect please go back to not replying to me. I do not insult your intelligence I do not make the repeated claims as you have that I do not understand supply and demand or economics. I say you are fixated on partisan agendas and approaches, which you keep proving is the case. You dismiss supply and demand and make things partisan which in this case is just blatantly obtuse. You then try to toss in the false narrative that a pipeline has cause for crude pricing when the pipeline is a conduit to REFINE crude, it is not transporting crude for direct use, it is taking the produced crude to be made into OTHER PRODUCTS. If Canada wants their toxic sour refined then they or Valero can pay for a refinery on the BC coast, Canada can pay for and deal with the messes that pipeline cause and the disruption it causes to the habitat and localities of the pipeline path. The US has ZERO obligation to host a conduit for Alberta sour transport.

The supply and demand curves are impacted from the cartel, so as I keep saying unless the US and NA self isolate there is little to nothing a POTUS can do that influences long term pricing. Yes sure traders blip prices in the near term, that happens every time a report comes out but you cant look at prices on a 1 min chart when the mid to long term chart tells the broader picture of the supply and demand of oil, so unless you are a crude trader the reflexive pricing on a minute chart does not change the mid to long term prices UNLESS the news or reason is more impactful to the long term supply or demand function, it is no more complex than this. Since the NA producers will never overtake the cartel, all the nonsense jawboning about the POTUS and DEM vs REPUB is a waste of time, we either isolate or shift the demand curve, and that demand curve CAN be shifted if there are non-crude alternatives...and believe it or not the way to shift a demand curve as we have seen in industries for years is for the invisible hand of government to help develop technologies which can help society..I think the green push is a money loser in the past and now but if technology and innovation improve the economies of scale and pricing gets better there is a decent hope that we can be less reliant on the cartel and that could be a positive for the demand curve.

@wallstreetcappers

 No one is dismissing supply and demand.  I am simply pointing out to you the uniqueness of this commodity regarding it.

I am simply pointing out the things that impact the speculation in the pricing.  This is not partisan; it simply is what it is.

The markets do not care which party it comes from.

You are obsessed with the pipeline.  Everyone knows your opinion on that and some experts disagree with you.  Look beyond that; look at all of the other issues and include that if you like.  Certainly, some of your points about it are correct and people have evaluated all of that and some like it and some do not.  That part has little to do with 'improving' the negative message it sends when piled on top of all of the other stuff.

It has nothing to do with the USA obligation to it.  It is simply that added on top of other things that brought in the negative sentiment.

Laying 'demand' at the feet of the 'cartel' is overly superficial.  They do not control that aspect of it.

Absolutely the point:  the news was more impactful for the longterm.  That is partially the reason that Biden has so far had the worst administration ever with pricing, as I have pointed out.

As I pointed out, if the other sources were there it would matter; they are not, so it is not a large factor.

It doesn't matter if you trade it long term or not, speculators care about positive or negative sentiment.  If you have negative sentiment and restrict drilling/building and the things that need constant replacing -- the industry sees this and the speculators see this.  They speculate on long term pricing not the minute charts.

No way Biden is that 'unlucky'.

Again, he has the same things at hand to use every other President has.

You cannot control it but you have a duty to your folks to be positive and try to have a good influence on it.  People respect positivity and markets respond well to it.

You do not keep down the same wrong path.  What would it hurt to change course now -- nothing, except rile up his handlers that support the nonsensical agenda.

It is the same when you stick to your same points here without adjusting.  It is hard to simply head down the same path when experts in the field disagree with you.

In essence you are saying there is absolutely nothing Biden could do to help, or hurt.  So, why say or do anything at all.  Why absolutely reverse course 180 when he got in office.  Why use the reserves, why take off the taxes, why put restrictions and regulations in place.  

As I said before, at least Trump saw, or was convinced by experts, that he was wrong and amended his course.

You do what you can to help AND if you think what you have been doing is NOT helping -- try changing course.

Do not just throw your hands up in the air and say you cannot do anything.  Then when eventually things do look better and you try to take credit for it, you look silly.  He did not do anything.

No way his folks cannot see that this is going to be a huge issue next year if the other economic issues are still bad.  This is something people will see at least once a week as they fill their tanks up.

all 3 major market indexes finished the week on an upward beat once again !!

all 3 major market indexes finished the week on an upward beat once again !!

The US economy grew by 5.2% in the third quarter, even faster than previously estimated!

  US economic growth was even stronger
in the third quarter than previously estimated,
underscoring the economy’s remarkable resilience
in the face of elevated inflation and high
borrowing costs earlier this year!

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of
economic output, rose at an annualized rate
of  5.2% from July through September,
according to the Commerce Department’s
second estimate.

GDP is adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings.

*Cue the insidious negativity & chronic criticizm from the right...

Nothing can ever be made better without open communication .

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

The US economy grew by 5.2% in the third quarter, even faster than previously estimated!!!  

 

                            

US economic growth was even stronger in the third quarter than previously estimated, underscoring the economy’s remarkable resilience in the face of elevated inflation and high borrowing costs earlier this year!                                                  Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, rose at an annualized rate of  5.2% from July through September, according to the Commerce Department’s second estimate. GDP is adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings.     *Cue the insidious negativity & chronic criticizm from the right... The latest reading reflects an even faster pace of growth than the blistering 4.9% rate the department initially estimated!      It factors in greater business investment, government outlays, residential investment and inventory growth.

Meanwhile, consumer spending,
America’s main economic engine,
was revised slightly lower, to 3.6%,
down slightly from the 4% in the initial estimate.
But that’s still a solid pace of growth!

The ability for truth to survive dies when an individual’s ego manipulates him into believing that his actions are “ righteous “ ….

thus keeping the harder to accept and real reason of why they do , say , and believe certain things safely away from their pain receptors ……

and if you want to know what the real reason is , yup , you got it , I’ll deliver , here it is :

they are just too damn fragile to deal with the overwhelming fear of the unknown .

make a breakthrough people . Fight through the discomfort . And you can do that at any time of day . AM or PM . Good luck .

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

The US economy grew by 5.2% in the third quarter, even faster than previously estimated!!!    

US economic growth was even stronger in the third quarter than previously estimated, underscoring the economy’s remarkable resilience in the face of elevated inflation and high borrowing costs earlier this year!                                                 

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, rose at an annualized rate of  5.2% from July through September, according to the Commerce Department’s second estimate. GDP is adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings.     The latest reading reflects an even faster pace of growth than the blistering 4.9% rate the department initially estimated!      It factors in greater business investment, government outlays, residential investment and inventory growth. Nonresidential fixed investment, or business spending, was revised up to a growth rate of 1.3% in the third quarter from a decline of 0.1%!!  Residential investment, which generally reflects conditions in the housing market, was revised much higher, to 6.2% from 3.9%.                                

Meanwhile, consumer spending, America’s main economic engine, was revised slightly lower, to 3.6%, down slightly from the 4% in the initial estimate. But that’s still a solid pace of growth!

*Cue the insidious negativity & chronic criticizm from the right...

Consumer spending seems solid for now:

Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales this year were record setting,

according to Adobe Analytics.  

I look around this Earth and I listen and learn , about the things that are amiss whether they’re said in whispers or they spurt , out loud in a shout , with histrionics , and the resulting goofiness that’s backing it to the point , that it’s ridiculous yes I assimilate and intertwist them shits into my written then I join , these new and wonderful skills that I garner on the daily , into my art that I sharpen like someone ready to carve on some hard and horrible fucking stale meat , and in doing so I gain new knowledge , while hustling through the trouble , of working through this learning curve and it’s obstruction to my subtle , and caring viewpoint that sometimes struggles through the ruckus , of the study of the lessons , so thank you for teaching me to love this new but cumbersome bump and thump method ……

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

The US economy grew by 5.2% in the third quarter, even faster than previously estimated!!!    

US economic growth was even stronger in the third quarter than previously estimated, underscoring the economy’s remarkable resilience in the face of elevated inflation and high borrowing costs earlier this year!                                                 

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, rose at an annualized rate of  5.2% from July through September, according to the Commerce Department’s second estimate. GDP is adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings.     The latest reading reflects an even faster pace of growth than the blistering 4.9% rate the department initially estimated!      It factors in greater business investment, government outlays, residential investment and inventory growth. Nonresidential fixed investment, or business spending, was revised up to a growth rate of 1.3% in the third quarter from a decline of 0.1%!!  Residential investment, which generally reflects conditions in the housing market, was revised much higher, to 6.2% from 3.9%.                                

*Cue the insidious negativity & chronic criticizm from the right...

Consumer spending seems solid for now: Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales this year were record setting, according to Adobe Analytics.

Fed officials pay close attention to various facets
of the US economy when deliberating monetary policy,
including growth.
The Fed is probably done hiking rates.

      “All in all, it seems like output growth is
       moderating as I had hoped it would,
       supporting continued progress on inflation,”
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said at a recent
event hosted by the American Enterprise Institute.