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    All Forums | Politics

    Election Betting Odds

    «First Previous 123 Next Last»
    DogbiteWilliams
    SarasotaSlim
    JimmyDrizzl
    dl36
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 4665
    Posts: 71
    «First Previous 123 Next Last»
     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Jul. 20, 2016 - 3:32 PM ET #26

    https://electionbettingodds.com/VicePresident.html

    Kaine is currently a huge favorite over Vilsack:

    Kaine 70.9%
    Vilsack 18.2%

    Kaine is fluent in Spanish.
    Reply
    https://electionbettingodds.com/VicePresident.html

    Kaine is currently a huge favorite over Vilsack:

    Kaine 70.9%
    Vilsack 18.2%

    Kaine is fluent in Spanish.
     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Jul. 23, 2016 - 2:38 PM ET #27

    The odds are quite volatile:

    https://electionbettingodds.com/

    EBO - Trump 29.2%

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

    538 - Trump 42.3%, which would make Trump an excellent bet at anything over +200 which currently has a juicy positive expected value.

    Betting lines are quite volatile.  With much lower limits, they are subject to rapid change.

    Good luck to bettors.  Maybe the safest thing is just to lay the heavy chalk and bet HRC to carry HI and Trump to carry ID.
    Reply
    The odds are quite volatile:

    https://electionbettingodds.com/

    EBO - Trump 29.2%

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

    538 - Trump 42.3%, which would make Trump an excellent bet at anything over +200 which currently has a juicy positive expected value.

    Betting lines are quite volatile.  With much lower limits, they are subject to rapid change.

    Good luck to bettors.  Maybe the safest thing is just to lay the heavy chalk and bet HRC to carry HI and Trump to carry ID.
     
    SarasotaSlim
    SarasotaSlim
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    Posted: Jul. 23, 2016 - 3:02 PM ET #28

    Forget the odds look at history..... why would Hillary Clinton want to run on the Obama record?

    In the past 50 some years, if one party holds the White House for eight years, more than likely that party won't win four more years. The only exception was George HW Bush after eight years of the Reagan presidency. ..
    Reply
    Forget the odds look at history..... why would Hillary Clinton want to run on the Obama record?

    In the past 50 some years, if one party holds the White House for eight years, more than likely that party won't win four more years. The only exception was George HW Bush after eight years of the Reagan presidency. ..
     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Jul. 23, 2016 - 7:14 PM ET #29

    Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:

    Forget the odds look at history..... why would Hillary Clinton want to run on the Obama record?

    In the past 50 some years, if one party holds the White House for eight years, more than likely that party won't win four more years. The only exception was George HW Bush after eight years of the Reagan presidency. ..
    HRC is unpopular.  If she wins, the desire for change could be even stronger after 12 years of Democratic presidencies, no matter how badly Trump may end up losing.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:

    Forget the odds look at history..... why would Hillary Clinton want to run on the Obama record?

    In the past 50 some years, if one party holds the White House for eight years, more than likely that party won't win four more years. The only exception was George HW Bush after eight years of the Reagan presidency. ..
    HRC is unpopular.  If she wins, the desire for change could be even stronger after 12 years of Democratic presidencies, no matter how badly Trump may end up losing.
     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Jul. 23, 2016 - 7:37 PM ET #30

    Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:

    Forget the odds look at history..... why would Hillary Clinton want to run on the Obama record?

    Jobs created:

    Babushka  -338,000
    Obama   +7,765,000

    • The average amount of private sector jobs created during Democratic Presidential terms is 1,536,560 and the average amount during Republican Presidential terms is 650,330.
    https://www.truthfulpolitics.com/http:/truthfulpolitics.com/comments/u-s-job-creation-by-president-political-party/
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:

    Forget the odds look at history..... why would Hillary Clinton want to run on the Obama record?

    Jobs created:

    Babushka  -338,000
    Obama   +7,765,000

    • The average amount of private sector jobs created during Democratic Presidential terms is 1,536,560 and the average amount during Republican Presidential terms is 650,330.
    https://www.truthfulpolitics.com/http:/truthfulpolitics.com/comments/u-s-job-creation-by-president-political-party/
     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Jul. 23, 2016 - 7:45 PM ET #31

    Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:

    Forget the odds look at history..... why would Hillary Clinton want to run on the Obama record?
    If you are talking/complaining about American troops stationed in more than 150 countries - Obama, like all of his predecessors for decades, is acting as if it is 1946 - than I share your criticism.

    However, both HRC and Trump have bellicose records.  Neither is a peacenik who will ratchet down the terrible tension.

    Liberals >>> vote Green.
    Conservatives >>> vote Libertarian.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:

    Forget the odds look at history..... why would Hillary Clinton want to run on the Obama record?
    If you are talking/complaining about American troops stationed in more than 150 countries - Obama, like all of his predecessors for decades, is acting as if it is 1946 - than I share your criticism.

    However, both HRC and Trump have bellicose records.  Neither is a peacenik who will ratchet down the terrible tension.

    Liberals >>> vote Green.
    Conservatives >>> vote Libertarian.
     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Jul. 25, 2016 - 1:48 PM ET #32

    https://electionbettingodds.com/

    HRC is all the way down to -2.12.
    Reply
    https://electionbettingodds.com/

    HRC is all the way down to -2.12.
     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Jul. 30, 2016 - 2:49 PM ET #33

    I saw HRC's ratio line as low as -2.04.  It is currently at -2.24.  Her convention bounce should fade, but it might still be growing.
    Reply
    I saw HRC's ratio line as low as -2.04.  It is currently at -2.24.  Her convention bounce should fade, but it might still be growing.
     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Aug. 1, 2016 - 2:07 PM ET #34

    Still growing - the current ratio is HRC -2.50 (70.2/28.4).
    Reply
    Still growing - the current ratio is HRC -2.50 (70.2/28.4).
     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Aug. 3, 2016 - 2:15 PM ET #35

    Still growing - the current ratio is HRC -3.06 (73.8/24.1).
    Reply
    Still growing - the current ratio is HRC -3.06 (73.8/24.1).
     
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Aug. 4, 2016 - 4:05 PM ET #36

    Still growing - the current ratio is HRC -3.43 (75.2/22.0).

    I'd say it's more than a convention bounce; with so many self-inflicted wounds, Trump is his own worst enemy.  If he refuses to STFU, he will make certain that the election is about him and he is doomed.
    Reply
    Still growing - the current ratio is HRC -3.43 (75.2/22.0).

    I'd say it's more than a convention bounce; with so many self-inflicted wounds, Trump is his own worst enemy.  If he refuses to STFU, he will make certain that the election is about him and he is doomed.
     
    JimmyDrizzl
    JimmyDrizzl
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    Posted: Aug. 4, 2016 - 8:47 PM ET #37

    Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

    Too many of them pass laws deliberately intended to disenfranchise minority voters to change the electoral composition and make white voters more powerful.


    Really...You say some states pass laws to intentionally disenfranchise some voters....Exactly what do these laws say...and how do they work...Does't seem fair to me if red states do this kind of practice...
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

    Too many of them pass laws deliberately intended to disenfranchise minority voters to change the electoral composition and make white voters more powerful.


    Really...You say some states pass laws to intentionally disenfranchise some voters....Exactly what do these laws say...and how do they work...Does't seem fair to me if red states do this kind of practice...
     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Aug. 5, 2016 - 5:25 PM ET #38

    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyDrizzl:



    Really...You say some states pass laws to intentionally disenfranchise some voters....Exactly what do these laws say...and how do they work...Does't seem fair to me if red states do this kind of practice...
    The Wisconsin voting restrictions were overturned:
    https://politicalwire.com/2016/07/29/wisconsin-voting-restrictions-overturned/

    Wisconsin is neither Blue nor Red.  It has been carried by the Democratic Presidential candidate in every election since Reagan carried it in 1984.

    Wisconsin's Republican governor and Republican state legislature imposed those restrictions which were overturned.

    Voter ID laws impact minority turnout:

    https://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/voter-id-laws-minorities-111721

    In 2012, an uncommonly frank GOP politician admitted that voter ID laws were intended to suppress Democratic turnout:

    This weekend, Pennsylvania Republican House Leader Mike Turzai (R-PA) finally admitted what so many have speculated: Voter identification efforts are meant to suppress Democratic votes in this year’s election.

    At the Republican State Committee meeting, Turzai took the stage and let slip the truth about why Republicans are so insistent on voter identification efforts — it will win Romney the election, he said:

    https://thinkprogress.org/politics/2012/06/25/505953/pennsylvania-republican-voter-id-laws-are-gonna-allow-governor-romney-to-win/

    Most of the states that imposed voter restrictions are conservative:

    https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/analysis/Restrictive_Appendix_Post-2010.pdf

    The Rhode Island law was fairly broad and accepted a wide range of ID's.

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyDrizzl:



    Really...You say some states pass laws to intentionally disenfranchise some voters....Exactly what do these laws say...and how do they work...Does't seem fair to me if red states do this kind of practice...
    The Wisconsin voting restrictions were overturned:
    https://politicalwire.com/2016/07/29/wisconsin-voting-restrictions-overturned/

    Wisconsin is neither Blue nor Red.  It has been carried by the Democratic Presidential candidate in every election since Reagan carried it in 1984.

    Wisconsin's Republican governor and Republican state legislature imposed those restrictions which were overturned.

    Voter ID laws impact minority turnout:

    https://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/voter-id-laws-minorities-111721

    In 2012, an uncommonly frank GOP politician admitted that voter ID laws were intended to suppress Democratic turnout:

    This weekend, Pennsylvania Republican House Leader Mike Turzai (R-PA) finally admitted what so many have speculated: Voter identification efforts are meant to suppress Democratic votes in this year’s election.

    At the Republican State Committee meeting, Turzai took the stage and let slip the truth about why Republicans are so insistent on voter identification efforts — it will win Romney the election, he said:

    https://thinkprogress.org/politics/2012/06/25/505953/pennsylvania-republican-voter-id-laws-are-gonna-allow-governor-romney-to-win/

    Most of the states that imposed voter restrictions are conservative:

    https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/analysis/Restrictive_Appendix_Post-2010.pdf

    The Rhode Island law was fairly broad and accepted a wide range of ID's.

     
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Aug. 11, 2016 - 3:31 PM ET #39

    The Democrats are currently still unlikely to take the House:

    https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/11/democrats-still-unlikely-to-take-house/

    https://electionbettingodds.com/congress.html
    Reply
    The Democrats are currently still unlikely to take the House:

    https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/11/democrats-still-unlikely-to-take-house/

    https://electionbettingodds.com/congress.html
     
    dl36
    dl36
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    Posted: Aug. 11, 2016 - 5:58 PM ET #40

    Last I check my book has Hillary at -350 as trump is going down in flames 
    Reply
    Last I check my book has Hillary at -350 as trump is going down in flames 
     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Aug. 12, 2016 - 6:19 PM ET #41

    I keep expecting HRC's convention bounce to diminish, but it has not as of yet (check this trend chart):

    https://electionbettingodds.com/WIN_chart_maxim_lott_john_stossel.html
    Reply
    I keep expecting HRC's convention bounce to diminish, but it has not as of yet (check this trend chart):

    https://electionbettingodds.com/WIN_chart_maxim_lott_john_stossel.html
     
    dl36
    dl36
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    Posted: Aug. 12, 2016 - 7:39 PM ET #42

    What do you see as a good buy in price for Hillary?
    Reply
    What do you see as a good buy in price for Hillary?
     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Aug. 12, 2016 - 10:57 PM ET #43

    Quote Originally Posted by dl36:

    What do you see as a good buy in price for Hillary?

    Sorry.  I just post information; I have no intention of placing an election wager nor the ability to construct my own line.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by dl36:

    What do you see as a good buy in price for Hillary?

    Sorry.  I just post information; I have no intention of placing an election wager nor the ability to construct my own line.
     
    dl36
    dl36
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    Posted: Aug. 13, 2016 - 4:59 PM ET #44

    Cool Please  keep it up... Money talks and the lines often give us an idea of what is going on
    Reply
    Cool Please  keep it up... Money talks and the lines often give us an idea of what is going on
     
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2016 - 3:02 PM ET #45

    Still growing - the current ratio is HRC -4.11 (78.1/19.0).
    Reply
    Still growing - the current ratio is HRC -4.11 (78.1/19.0).
     
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Aug. 24, 2016 - 3:05 PM ET #46

    I guess the HRC convention bounce is over - the ratio has narrowed to HRC -3.72 (76.6/20.6).

    https://electionbettingodds.com/

    That electoral map may have a Blue tinge - some recent polls in FL and IA look better for Trump.
    Reply
    I guess the HRC convention bounce is over - the ratio has narrowed to HRC -3.72 (76.6/20.6).

    https://electionbettingodds.com/

    That electoral map may have a Blue tinge - some recent polls in FL and IA look better for Trump.
     
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Aug. 26, 2016 - 7:49 PM ET #47

    Third party in debates?  Probably not - it is likely that the public will be force-fed those two unpopular candidates and have to search the Internet for information about Gary Johnson, Jill Stein and other minor party candidates.

    https://electionbettingodds.com/Johnson_Debate.html
    Reply
    Third party in debates?  Probably not - it is likely that the public will be force-fed those two unpopular candidates and have to search the Internet for information about Gary Johnson, Jill Stein and other minor party candidates.

    https://electionbettingodds.com/Johnson_Debate.html
     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
    Captain
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    Joined: Sep, 2015
    Posts: 6497
    Posted: Aug. 29, 2016 - 2:09 PM ET #48

    Trump continues to close the gap.  The current ratio is HRC -3.26 (74.9/23.0).
    Reply
    Trump continues to close the gap.  The current ratio is HRC -3.26 (74.9/23.0).
     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2015
    Posts: 6497
    Posted: Sep. 1, 2016 - 5:29 PM ET #49

    Trump is on the march; let's hope he's not doing a goose step.  The current ratio is HRC -2.69 (71.4/26.5).
    Reply
    Trump is on the march; let's hope he's not doing a goose step.  The current ratio is HRC -2.69 (71.4/26.5).
     
     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
    Captain
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    Joined: Sep, 2015
    Posts: 6497
    Posted: Sep. 6, 2016 - 2:58 PM ET #50

    After a few days of unusual stability, Trump has resumed narrowing the margin.  The current ratio is HRC -2.30 (67.3/29.2).
    Reply
    After a few days of unusual stability, Trump has resumed narrowing the margin.  The current ratio is HRC -2.30 (67.3/29.2).
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