Carrier...from a Hoosier

I don’t post political views at all in this forum…I keep it to betting.  But there’s been some interest in the Carrier deal here in Indiana, a factory that is literally miles down the road from where I live.  I feel when I post my thoughts that I be completely honest with everyone, and I respect everyone in this forum, so I will give my thoughts on Carrier, but for those that are interested, here is my backstory.  Maybe this might help people see where I’m coming from.  If you aren’t interested in this…skip ahead, or don’t read, or ignore the thread.  But If I’m going to post something that is important to me…I’m going to give it my full effort.

*Special Shoutout to Europa who remembered that I posted that Trumps message was hitting home with Rural America when nobody else was listening (except Michael Moore, the Dilbert Creator, and Allan Lichtman).  

BACKSTORY

I love covers…I love the political forum (sometimes I laugh at posts, sometimes I get scared by some of the things I read), but I’m always checking in.  I want to have a good feel on the pulse of people.  I watch MSNBC to see what the Left narrative is…I tune in to FOX News to see what the Right narrative is.  And believe me…it’s all narrative.  I run a video production company, and because of that business I have seen and experienced some amazing things, and I’ve been introduced to incredible people.  Diversity is a staple of my life with my business.  Earlier this year, I did a TV show where we interviewed Mike Pence (someone we know very well.  He has a picture of himself and the hosts of our show on the governors desk, that is confirmed.  My show is set to give him an award for the work he’s done with Veterans and Motorcycle Riders in the Indianapolis Community before he leaves for DC)  Two hours later I was doing a show at a local pinball tournament filled with hipsters, who despise Mike Pence. I’ve done interviews with Democrats and Republicans.  I’ve done shoots with John McCain (R), and Barack Obama (D).  I was at a Trump rally a few months ago in Indianapolis…I did videos for a Muslim group from Turkey who run very successful Charter schools here in the States.  Their goal and mission is to bridge the gap from various religions.  I video documented an event here in Indianapolis where a Jewish Church hosted a Muslim group at their church with Christian volunteers cooking food to help the Muslims celebrate the end of their fast of Ramadan, the only known such event in the world.  

I lived briefly on the West Coast, but I have lived mostly in the midwest my entire life.  Some of my best friends in the world live in Europe, and I keep in touch with them often, and we exchange political thoughts every time we speak.  

My wife and I run an online business selling products on Amazon.  We get the products from China.  We tried to find domestic distributors, but none could come close to the quality and price of overseas factories.

For my video production business, I hire out several of my TV Shows to independent contractors (all Americans, all Indianapolis residents).  I don’t have to…I could do them myself.  But my business is successful, and I want others to benefit from it.  I’m not rich, but I’m working towards it.  In the video production business, you eventually have to work with Hollywood.  I love the West Coast, and I relate to them, but I’ve worked with several big name players in Hollywood.  Some of them have even come to Indianapolis to shoot TV Shows with me.  I see the way they look at me…a midwest guy.  They smirk, roll their eyes at the thought of having to step foot in Indiana, a flyover state.  Then they get here, and hate it….until they interact with the people.  Every Hollywood, ESPN, New York, Bristol, Boston, LA person says the same thing.  “I would never live there, but man…everyone is so nice!  And the cost of living is nothing!”.  Anyone who has spent time in the midwest finds something to like about it, and something to hate about it.  

I’ve seen and done a lot in my life, and I appreciate the perspective it gives me.  I take a long time to form my opinions.  I don’t listen to one person, or one point of view.  I think most of life is gray…not black and white.  I listen to all opinions, do my research, and combine cold hard facts and numbers with opinion and emotions.  I live in a red state, and even though I know we’re voting Republican…whoever I vote for has to earn it.  I examine their statements, views, history, and political party and I look at how honest and realistic they may be.  

This year was a crazy election for many reasons…but for me in particular, it made me do more research than ever on the candidates and what I thought was good moving forward.

I will go over my thoughts on the Carrier Deal as well as other thoughts on the current state of things…again just to generate intelligent thought, and discussion.  If you aren’t interested…no worries.  I don’t want to respond to hate or left/right rhetoric, so I won’t.  But I would love to hear any thoughtful opinions.  

CARRIER DEAL

First things first.  Donald Trump didn’t do this deal.  Mike Pence did.  And Kelly Holcomb (Governor when Pence leaves) did as well.  In 2013, Pence gave Carrier some grants to save jobs.  This is more of the same.  Trump needed a headline victory about saving jobs, and he got it here.  The headline is great… “Trump Comes Through on Promise…Saves Carrier Jobs”.  When I was at the Trump rally earlier this year, he kept hammering home jobs leaving the US, and brought up Carrier over and over again.  The crowd went nuts.  He tried to talk about other things…the crowd went silent.  He brought up jobs, and the crowd went nuts.  He brought up Hillary, the crowd kind of booed a little.  He went back to jobs…and the crowd went nuts.

Before I go over the Carrier Deal, let me tell you why the manufacturing jobs issue is so important here in Indianapolis, and the midwest.  It’s a basic fear of change.  And I don’t blame any of them.  Here’s a story you’ll never here from national media:  Indianapolis has the chance to be the Austin, Texas of the midwest.  There is a fast rising population of young professionals in this city.  Young people in the midwest are moving to Indianapolis because of some of the up and coming companies here, and the jobs they offer.  There are 3 parts of the city that are being populated by young talent, who make good salaries, brought in by companies who have picked Indianapolis as their home city.  Eli Lilly, Sales Force, and Angies List are the big ones, but there are more on the way.  They picked this city for several reasons, but the cost of living is the biggest one.  It’s a huge draw for young professionals.  Someone making $50,000.00 a year in this city can have a good apartment or house (1200 sq ft rental or own), and still have enough money for a social life.  If you have a DINK (Dual Income No Kids) couple, each making $50,000.00…you can have a pretty amazing life here.  Companies in Indianapolis are investing in the young people, and the young educated work force.  Why?  It’s cheaper than most other cities.  Is the local government investing in young people?  Nope.  Why?  Because Indiana is an Older, Christian, Republican voting state who doesn’t like change.  The older generation here live in the same houses their entire lives.  They marry their high school sweetheart.  They believe what they were taught growing up, and around here they were taught that as long as you pray and work hard…everything will work out.  I went to a Catholic School for 8 years…believe me…that’s the message.  Indianapolis has some areas of town that look exactly like the national stereotype of uneducated rednecks…and just a couple miles away is an area of town that looks like Austin, Texas.  It’s very interesting.  So right now we have the old school Hoosiers, and in influx of hipsters.  

So what happens around here when business globalization starts to happen, and young people with all these different thoughts and opinions start to pop up?  People get scared.  People around here want simple.  I want to go to work, do my job, go home to my family, and live in peace.  People that work in factories with less education than the young professionals get scared.  “I just want to live my peaceful life…why is it moving past me so fast?  Why can’t I just work in this factory my whole life?”  People living in the suburbs get scared.  “This isn’t what I was taught as a kid.  I work hard, save my money and I can retire with my family and white picket fence house.  This isn’t the picture I had in my mind my whole life”

Adaptation and change is extremely difficult for people around here.  So what happens when a factory in Indianapolis moves to Mexico?  It’s hard to grasp.  It’s not the “norm”.  It’s not what people were taught.  Life and Business is moving to fast for people to keep up around here.  It’s not a bad thing…it’s just the truth.  I’m in the video production business, and I pitch TV shows for a living.  In the last 10 years I’ve seen revenue from cable networks shrivel up…and someone on youtube with a good following can make millions doing videos with his iPhone.  I’ve seen how quickly industries and cultures can change.  I’ve learned to adapt.  Lots of people around here haven’t and don’t want to.

What did Trump do in the midwest?  He did something that no other politician, media outlet or political party thought to do.  He listened…and showed up…and talked to directly to them.  Media glossed over the midwest because that’s what they do.  (Even the Right media does that, so get off your high horse Republicans :) ).  People in the midwest can feel forgotten.  Media talks down to us because we don’t live in a “big city”.  Politicians talk down to us because they think we don’t know any better.  

Guess who else talked directly to the midwest mentality?  Bernie Sanders.  Oh by they way, he won Wisconsin and Michigan from Hillary in the primary.  Everyone glossed over it.  Even the Clinton campaign took it for granted.  She didn’t do one rally in Wisconsin during the campaign.  Gee…I wonder why the midwest feels like the media and Washington DC don’t care about us.

But before we make a big deal out of a $7 million dollar deal to keep 850 jobs in Indiana…let me leave you with this sobering though…

Years ago, the city wanted a Super Bowl.  The NFL said that the RCA Dome wouldn’t do.  So the city made plans to build a brand new stadium that would be big enough for the Super Bowl.  The Indianapolis Colts DID NOT ask for a new stadium.  Of course, they welcomed it, but they didn’t hold the city hostage or demand a new stadium.  The city wanted it.  So they made plans to build a stadium, and they said that this stadium would host Colts home games as well as concerts, and other big events.  The bill to build a new stadium passed in a landslide, and within a year, thanks to increased taxes on downtown restaurants and hotels…the city raised $700 Million for the stadium.  I will repeat that, and let it sink in.  When the city really wanted a new f*cking stadium for our football team…they figured out a way to raise $700 million dollars in a year.  And everyone in our city was ok with it, and loved it.  And guess what…the stadium is a disaster.  We have no concerts, no extra income for it…and, oh by the way, it costs THREE TIMES THE AMOUNT TO MAINTAIN IT THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT.  The stadium has a retractable roof that cost an additional $200 million, and the roof was open twice this entire year.  And nobody is upset about it.  The taxpayers say nothing.  Taxes are up for us because the stadium is more expensive than we thought it would be, and we get to foot the bill.

I’m not a fan of government jumping in to save a factory multiple times.  I’m not a fan of the city making taxpayers foot the bill for a ridiculous stadium.  

The mood around here today has been mixed.  I thought everyone would be really excited, but when people found out that the taxpayers get to foot the bill for Carrier…more Republican voters were disappointed than I thought.  I think Trump thought this would be a massive home run, but the only ones who seem super excited are the 850 people who’s jobs got saved, and there is some value to that.  On the news, you’ll hear people at Carrier excited, and you’ll hear chants at his rally.  But outside that factory, people aren’t rejoicing.  A lot of us are scratching our heads wondering if this was a noble thing to do, or if Bernie is right…that we just set a terrible precedent.  Threaten to move to Mexico, and get massive local tax breaks…and then move a few years later.

I think Trump and Pence made a nice headline, but there is no long-term thinking here.  Carrier was moving jobs to Mexico for a reason.  It’s way cheaper.  Bottom line.  Globalization is happening whether people want to accept it or not.  Band-aids work temporarily, but that’s it.  Trump and Pence “saved” 850 jobs, but 1450 still left.  Those other 850 will eventually leave as well.  Its not a republican problem…it’s not a democrat problem.  It’s a globalization and technology problem that is hurting the value of the US manual labor worker, and anyone that tells you they have the ultimate solution is guessing, at best.  Unfortunately though, Democrats and Republicans are so busy arguing, and pointing the finger that there are no definite solutions coming to the manufacturing sector soon.  I think that the diehard Trump voters are going to painfully learn over the next couple years, that nobody…Democrat or Republican…can protect them from the rapidly changing globally economy.  And it will probably get to a Darwin-esque point where the weak get sorted out, and disappear.  We can only give bailouts to manufacturing for so long before it just becomes not worth it.  I think my state, and other states around me need to figure out how to attract NEW industries for manufacturing, and stop worrying about saving current ones.  The industries are out there.  It’s just what plan can we put in place, and do we even have the right people in positions of power to figure that plan out.  My fear is that right now we don't have the right people in place in my state.  But then again, I'm an optimist 

Fantastic post.

You have my utmost respect, alangrrbs.  The "bs" doesn't stand for "bullshxt."

great posts.

i think the best point you make is that the forces that caused carrier/UTX to move these jobs out of the country and not going away and are not cured by a bandaid, particularly a partial bandaid that costs IN taxpayers a bunch of money.

ultimately, it's just politics.  trump spoke to the people in indiana and neighboring states, and i guess people are happier to have someone hold their hand and lie to them then to tell them the hard but unmistakable truth that these jobs are not coming back and you either need to adapt or you're screwed.  no one will vote for the person who tells them that truth. 

the weak will get sorted out eventually, but the weak in this context are the dumb.  the people who want to hear the comfortable lie and avoid the difficult truth. 

i doubt we will see too many of these productions.  it's pretty clearly a publicity stunt that's expensive for IN residents (although obviously good for the people that kept their jobs, assuming they can keep them for a while) but obviously you can't go to each company that is looking to move jobs out of the u.s. and start throwing government handouts at all of them. 

by the way, are you aware of any part of this deal that requires carrier to keep these jobs in IN for a certain period of time or can carrier move the rest of these jobs to mexico next year once the publicity is gone?

"by the way, are you aware of any part of this deal that requires carrier to keep these jobs in IN for a certain period of time or can carrier move the rest of these jobs to mexico next year once the publicity is gone?"

 I think inaction has been a big problem in our government, mostly by Congress over the years.  The plan put in place for Carrier may not be perfect, but just showing that they care, and showing that they are willing to do something is a positive thing.

Great post Allen. Thanks for taking the time to give people like me the story. Let's see what happens in the future. I still like the fact that the move to Mexico was stopped. Trump is anti New World Order and is totally against globalization. I would be glad to pay an additional $100 if I was a Hoosier in any kind of tax to support the remaining workers of Carrier.

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Great read, Alangrrbs!

it's true that the cost per person is minimal, but when i say it is costing the people of In a lot of money, what i mean is that is $7 million that isn't being used for something else that benefits a larger portion of the state.  it is corporate welfare going to a company that is sending more than half of these jobs in question to mexico.  and IN taxpayers will be paying for this for 10 years.  does anyone think these jobs will still be in IN in 2026?


i don't want to harp on it too much or be too negative of trump/pence.  i think it's an interesting economics/politics discussion.  honestly, to everyone not directly affected, this is hardly a drop in the bucket.  the economy is currently adding about 180,000 jobs per month.  if trump can keep that going or improve on it, then there will definitely be something positive to discuss. 

finally, i've formulated a mathematical equation that i have used in my gambling this season you might/might not like.  it goes something like this:

Indianapolis - Luck < Cleveland 

Different look. Trump wins 3084 out of 3151 counties. Basically a landslide.

 Great post!!! Lots of insight and honesty in your post. Appreciate it because it doesn't happen often here. 

People inside the counties vote. Large sample size. Trump wins 3084 out of 3151. That is 97.8% of the counties. Landslide. I just want people to know. Hillary won 2.2% of the counties across America. The point is Trump has a mandate and he started taking care of business with Carrier.

Sundance and Darkhorse...

One of the most worthwhile posts I think I have ever taken the time to read on here.

Alan, you have voiced your concern for the middle class.  We certainly are in accordance on that.

Parent company United Technologies had a NET INCOME of $7.6 billion in 2015\, and they certainly take care of their fat cats.  Former CEO Louis Chenevert left in 2015 with an estimated $195 million in company stock and pension benefits.  I bet he could have managed to scrape by with $100 million and saved some jobs with the rest.

https://fortune.com/2015/02/06/united-technologies-exit-pay/

I would love to see some evidence that the executives, whose bad decisions undoubtedly had some unfavorable consequences, also bear some financial reversals.  Shared sacrifice would at least imply some sense of fair play.  I would hate to think that Carrier takes all that taxpayer money, saves some jobs, lays off a bunch of people and still awards their executives lavish bonuses, stock options and pension benefits.