2024 US Election Betting Hub

Off Topic - Polymarket also covers sports.  This is a link to their NFL futures page (they have KC at 18% to win the Super Bowl, BAL at 14%):

https://polymarket.com/sports/nfl/futures

Ravens at 14%? seems tough proposition to me. Lama Jackson looks mighty during regular seasons but has foiled numerous times in the postseasons.   

@DogbiteWilliams

Look at this, time goes back to last August: 

Wow.    

@Europa

Impressive.  While I was born in CLV (that's why I root for all of their teams), I grew up in PHX which had no major league teams for most of that time.  There was no Desert Diamond Arena then.

I hope that rally means surprisingly high DEM turnout.  Trump has led in AZ every single day since I began checking 538.

VoteHub has Trump 283, Harris 255 in the Electoral College.  VH has Harris by 2.1% nationally but with the Electoral College bias at R +2.3%.

https://polls.votehub.com/

Trump's odds at 538 have fallen back to 51%.  Harris gained in all 7 swing states, but no gain was larger than 0.2.  The two states with the largest edges are currently Trump states, but the edges are still small - AZ 1.8 and GA 1.6.

Electoral Vote made 2 changes - NV from Harris to Even and NC from Even to Harris, a net gain of 10 EVs for Harris.

Harris 271, Trump 246, Ties 21 (MI and NV)

Polymarket has some serious problems with rounding errors per their current posted odds:

Trump 63.0%   Harris 37.4%

While I cannot say for certain that there is a correlation, as more and more evidence is revealed that Trump is an aspiring fascist dictator who admires Hitler Trump's edge at EBO has fallen to 17.5%. 

Historian Allan Lichtman still predicts a Kamala Harris win.  He has correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential elections.

https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/2024-election/allan-lichtman-predicts-kamala-harris-win/

Yup, Litchtman correctly predicted the winners of 2016 and 2020. This time he predicts Kamala Harris winning in this year. 

Electoral Vote changed several states.  Net advantage - Trump.

Harris 260, Trump 268, Tie 10 (WI)

Both candidates are doing and saying things meant for low information voters, most of whom are remarkably undecided. About 20% of the electorate may be new to voting and are mostly inawrae of  current events or how the government works....

Trump making McDonald's french fries was essentially a marketing ploy to connect Trump with one of Americas' favorite fast foods--those french fries....

Kamala stoking fears of Adolf Hitler is a way to scare off those undecideds from Trump....

Trump shares some characteristics...the rallies, the pageantry, and his stoking fear of the failures of democracy. Hitler was a warlord, a wartime Chancellor handpicked by WW1 ex-generals and a huge war manufacturing complex, and I don't see Trump as one seeking war or conquest---but who knows? Maybe the US military wants Trump to be the one to go after Iran...(?)

So it is a failure that voters are not voting for the issues they care about the most. It makes democracy hard to carry out, when elections are run like that. America from afar, seems both divided and out of focus ...

I think this also makes the election unbettable. One little momentum swing based on some effective marketing ploy or even an AI fake video.....could sway large numbers of low information voters.

Looks llike Trump is leading comfortably anyways, and I don't like to bet on the side I dont' like to see win...even if it's "free" money. I can make that on a soccer game or the WS coming up.

Here is another full house crowds of supporter for Kamala Harris rally today in DeKalb County, Georgia. 

Video clip from 0:00 to 0:32, it's just wow! 

impressive 

In just one day Trump's edge at EBO has climbed back to 20.7%.

He's leading in most of the national polls....all within the margin of error though.

CNN's data guru Harry Enten indicates there is a 60% chance of landslide win on electoral college votes in November. Well, but he came short of predicting who is the winner, but he pointed out state's poll averages have 92% underestimate Obama in 2012, 83% underestimate Trump in 2016, and 100% underestimate Trump in 2020. Which implies that state's poll averages have overly underestimated Trump in 2016 and 2020, according to Enten.

However, Allan Lichtman who has accurately predicted the outcome of 9 out of the last 10 presidential elections (including Trump in 2016), predicts Kamala Harris will win this year.

During last night's rally in Arizona, Donald Trump was saying “A lot of people coming out of the Congo. Not just South America, they’re coming from 181 countries as of yesterday. We’re a dumping ground. We’re like a garbage can for the world,”

Not sure this kind of divisive and discriminate comment is resonating well among naturalized US citizens. 

Electoral Vote has changed several more states.  Net advantage - Trump, with momentum.

Harris 241, Trump 278, Tie 19 (PA)

Polymarket now has Trump at 65.4%.

What are the prevailing odds of Trump to win across the major books? -190/-200 now?

@Europa

I would love to say that those vile comments would make a positive difference, but Trump's lead has expanded since he falsely claimed that Haitian immigrants were "eating our pets" and Republicans began running ads promoting transphobia.  A certain segment of the American electorate has responded positively to this; they are fxcking scum.

Bigotry is absolutely indefensible, and so is amorally doing anything to obtain power.

I am a small bettor and I only have one online account - Heritage.  Despite recent poll movements, their lines remain the same as they were on 2024-10-22:

Trump -165

Harris +145

Ideology and power grabbing are such of two craving demands in the politics regardless of the manner. Harris-Walz ticket will need more and more independent voters as well as center right Republicans on top of the democratic base to win in next month. It's doable.