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    All Forums | Politics

    2024 US Election Betting Hub

    «First Previous 101112 ... 141516 Next Last»
    DogbiteWilliams
    Europa
    fubah2
    Bigdoubleplay
    Flynt
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    «First Previous 101112 ... 141516 Next Last»
     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Oct. 25, 2024 - 4:52 PM ET #226

    Liberals and pro-Harris Republicans looking for something uplifting should head to Vote Hub:

    https://polls.votehub.com/

    They still have Harris ahead 270-268.  They also have Harris gaining a bit recently in the Tipping Point margin and Trump losing a bit of his edge recently in the Electoral College bias.

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    Liberals and pro-Harris Republicans looking for something uplifting should head to Vote Hub:

    https://polls.votehub.com/

    They still have Harris ahead 270-268.  They also have Harris gaining a bit recently in the Tipping Point margin and Trump losing a bit of his edge recently in the Electoral College bias.

     
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Oct. 25, 2024 - 5:29 PM ET #227

    More good news for lefties:  Rasmussen Reports is described as "Right-Center biased" by Media Bias/Fact Check.

    "Vice President Kamala Harris has pushed into the lead over former President Donald Trump in the latest daily tracking poll of the 2024 presidential election.

    The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the election were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for Harris and 47% would vote for Trump. Two percent (2%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

    In the previous survey, Trump led by two points, with 49% to Harris’s 47%. This is the first time Harris has led since Rasmussen Reports began its daily tracking poll on October 15. Each daily result reflects a four-night average of nightly samples."

    https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2024_archive/election_2024_harris_now_1_over_trump

    *******

    This is obviously within the MOE and could be an outlier, but it does provide some evidence that contradicts the national narrative.

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    More good news for lefties:  Rasmussen Reports is described as "Right-Center biased" by Media Bias/Fact Check.

    "Vice President Kamala Harris has pushed into the lead over former President Donald Trump in the latest daily tracking poll of the 2024 presidential election.

    The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the election were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for Harris and 47% would vote for Trump. Two percent (2%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

    In the previous survey, Trump led by two points, with 49% to Harris’s 47%. This is the first time Harris has led since Rasmussen Reports began its daily tracking poll on October 15. Each daily result reflects a four-night average of nightly samples."

    https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2024_archive/election_2024_harris_now_1_over_trump

    *******

    This is obviously within the MOE and could be an outlier, but it does provide some evidence that contradicts the national narrative.

     
    Europa
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2024 - 2:23 AM ET #228

    @DogbiteWilliams

    I like what Dan Pfeiffer and Simon Rosenberg have to say in the flowing vid. 

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pT8ay6PIgI

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    @DogbiteWilliams

    I like what Dan Pfeiffer and Simon Rosenberg have to say in the flowing vid. 

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pT8ay6PIgI

     
    Europa
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2024 - 2:42 AM ET #229

    The Obama size rally tonight in Houston, Texas. 

    Video clip from 00:00 to 00:15

    Actual Obama rally in 2008,

     

     

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    The Obama size rally tonight in Houston, Texas. 

    Video clip from 00:00 to 00:15

    Actual Obama rally in 2008,

     

     

     
    fubah2
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2024 - 3:02 AM ET #230

    Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

    @DogbiteWilliams I like what Dan Pfeiffer and Simon Rosenberg have to say in the flowing vid.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pT8ay6PIgI

     

    @Europa

    Yes, good stuff that! peace_5 Do keep the positive news coming, my Democracy/freedom loving friend!

    I take particular interest in the point they made about the recent "flooding" of right-bias polls that all suggest trump is leading and about to run away with the election....THEREBY, either intentionally or unintentionally, setting up an OBVIOUS narrative that should trump then LOSE >>>> there must've been some sort of Democrat "malfeasance" an_arsed

     

    *NOTE:  I don't condone the tactic as it could lead to violence and death AGAIN....but if one is inclined toward fascism/evil then yeah, that tactic is clever on their part...

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

    @DogbiteWilliams I like what Dan Pfeiffer and Simon Rosenberg have to say in the flowing vid.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pT8ay6PIgI

     

    @Europa

    Yes, good stuff that! peace_5 Do keep the positive news coming, my Democracy/freedom loving friend!

    I take particular interest in the point they made about the recent "flooding" of right-bias polls that all suggest trump is leading and about to run away with the election....THEREBY, either intentionally or unintentionally, setting up an OBVIOUS narrative that should trump then LOSE >>>> there must've been some sort of Democrat "malfeasance" an_arsed

     

    *NOTE:  I don't condone the tactic as it could lead to violence and death AGAIN....but if one is inclined toward fascism/evil then yeah, that tactic is clever on their part...

     

     
    Europa
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2024 - 3:18 AM ET #231

    @fubah2

    Both Dan Pfeiffer and Simon Rosenberg are Democrats affiliated, you may want to take it as grain of salt. From my own perspective, I think both men have my trustworthy. Put it in another words, these two men appear pretty sincere to me.     

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    @fubah2

    Both Dan Pfeiffer and Simon Rosenberg are Democrats affiliated, you may want to take it as grain of salt. From my own perspective, I think both men have my trustworthy. Put it in another words, these two men appear pretty sincere to me.     

     
    fubah2
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2024 - 3:33 AM ET #232

    Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

    @fubah2 Both Dan Pfeiffer and Simon Rosenberg are Democrats affiliated, you may want to take it as grain of salt. From my own perspective, I think both men have my trustworthy. Put it in another words, these two men appear pretty sincere to me.

    Well, the FASCIST FELON and his accomplices have been saying for some time now that the only possible way they can lose this election is if the Democrats are guilty of massive election fraud.  So now their base is convinced that is true.  But to support their fabrication with "alleged" evidence, no better way than to keep pumping out multiple RIGHT-BIAS poll results showing trump leading everywhere...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

    @fubah2 Both Dan Pfeiffer and Simon Rosenberg are Democrats affiliated, you may want to take it as grain of salt. From my own perspective, I think both men have my trustworthy. Put it in another words, these two men appear pretty sincere to me.

    Well, the FASCIST FELON and his accomplices have been saying for some time now that the only possible way they can lose this election is if the Democrats are guilty of massive election fraud.  So now their base is convinced that is true.  But to support their fabrication with "alleged" evidence, no better way than to keep pumping out multiple RIGHT-BIAS poll results showing trump leading everywhere...

     
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2024 - 4:59 AM ET #233

    There could be an Electoral College blowout despite the close polls.

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/25/politics/video/enten-electoral-college-blowout-despite-tight-polls-digvid

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    There could be an Electoral College blowout despite the close polls.

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/25/politics/video/enten-electoral-college-blowout-despite-tight-polls-digvid

     
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2024 - 8:42 PM ET #234

    Trump has risen to 54% at EBO.

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    Trump has risen to 54% at EBO.

     
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2024 - 9:11 PM ET #235

    More good news for Trump fans and bettors:  While TIPP is only rated #120 at 538, TIPP's latest tracking poll has the race dead even which is pretty bad news for Harris:

    "Today, the RealClearPolitics average of battleground polls shows Trump +1.1. Compare this to 2020, when on the same day, it was Biden +4.0 and in 2016, it was Clinton +5.0."

    https://tippinsights.com/tipp-tracking-poll-day-13-trump-and-harris-deadlocked-at-48/

    Of course that big lead meant nothing for HRC as she lost.  RealClearPolitics has a Republican bias as founders John McIntyre and Tom Bevan are both conservatives.  To RCP's credit, their final 2020 polls showed 3.4% less Democratic bias than The New York Times' polls did.

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    More good news for Trump fans and bettors:  While TIPP is only rated #120 at 538, TIPP's latest tracking poll has the race dead even which is pretty bad news for Harris:

    "Today, the RealClearPolitics average of battleground polls shows Trump +1.1. Compare this to 2020, when on the same day, it was Biden +4.0 and in 2016, it was Clinton +5.0."

    https://tippinsights.com/tipp-tracking-poll-day-13-trump-and-harris-deadlocked-at-48/

    Of course that big lead meant nothing for HRC as she lost.  RealClearPolitics has a Republican bias as founders John McIntyre and Tom Bevan are both conservatives.  To RCP's credit, their final 2020 polls showed 3.4% less Democratic bias than The New York Times' polls did.

     
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2024 - 2:53 AM ET #236

    Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

    Trump has risen to 54% at EBO.

    That was incorrect.  Trump has a 54% chance at 538 where they analyze 282 polls.

    Trump has a 61.5% chance per the bettors at EBO.  Considering the narrow margins in all seven swing states are all less than the margins of error, the current Trump bettors are paying a hefty price with a negative expected value at these lofty odds levels.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

    Trump has risen to 54% at EBO.

    That was incorrect.  Trump has a 54% chance at 538 where they analyze 282 polls.

    Trump has a 61.5% chance per the bettors at EBO.  Considering the narrow margins in all seven swing states are all less than the margins of error, the current Trump bettors are paying a hefty price with a negative expected value at these lofty odds levels.

     
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2024 - 4:23 AM ET #237

    The current estimate at 538:

    Trump 277

    Harris 261

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    The current estimate at 538:

    Trump 277

    Harris 261

     
    Bigdoubleplay
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2024 - 11:50 AM ET #238

    Pinny odds Trump -190 Harris +170

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    Pinny odds Trump -190 Harris +170

     
    Flynt
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2024 - 11:51 AM ET #239

    Glad to see a lot of chat here! Sharing a few more things for anyone that is interested in the betting odds, news and our Election Pick'em contest.

    Recent Articles:

    US Election Betting Odds

    US Election Betting History

    Kalshi After US Election Betting Markets Open

    CFTC Steps Up on Election Betting

     

    Our free US Election Pick'em contest! Take your shot at a $500 Amazon gift card if you can predict how the US Election will turn out.

     

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    Glad to see a lot of chat here! Sharing a few more things for anyone that is interested in the betting odds, news and our Election Pick'em contest.

    Recent Articles:

    US Election Betting Odds

    US Election Betting History

    Kalshi After US Election Betting Markets Open

    CFTC Steps Up on Election Betting

     

    Our free US Election Pick'em contest! Take your shot at a $500 Amazon gift card if you can predict how the US Election will turn out.

     

     
    Barbarossa
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2024 - 10:15 PM ET #240

    CNN’s data analyst Harry Enten suggested Friday that Donald Trump could be on course to win the popular vote on November 5th.

    That hasn’t happened for a Republican candidate for 20 years.

    If it happens, Trump will almost certainly win the electoral college and the election.

    Enten noted that a New York Times/Siena College poll was released last week showing Trump tied with Kamala Harris at 48% in the national popular vote.

    “Everyone has been talking about this idea that Trump may win in the Electoral College, but Kamala Harris may win the popular vote, but Trump may finally get his great white whale,” Enten stated.

    He added that Wall Street Journal and CNBC polls also have Trump ahead of Harris in the popular vote.

     

    The Pastor of Disaster
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    CNN’s data analyst Harry Enten suggested Friday that Donald Trump could be on course to win the popular vote on November 5th.

    That hasn’t happened for a Republican candidate for 20 years.

    If it happens, Trump will almost certainly win the electoral college and the election.

    Enten noted that a New York Times/Siena College poll was released last week showing Trump tied with Kamala Harris at 48% in the national popular vote.

    “Everyone has been talking about this idea that Trump may win in the Electoral College, but Kamala Harris may win the popular vote, but Trump may finally get his great white whale,” Enten stated.

    He added that Wall Street Journal and CNBC polls also have Trump ahead of Harris in the popular vote.

     

     
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2024 - 1:05 AM ET #241

    Trump has dropped from 54% to 52% at 538.  Most moves at 538 have been 1%; I have no explanation for the 2% drop.

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    Trump has dropped from 54% to 52% at 538.  Most moves at 538 have been 1%; I have no explanation for the 2% drop.

     
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2024 - 1:56 AM ET #242

    In a podcast about a half day ago, Steve Kornacki reported that among voters who voted in 2020 AND 2022 Harris has a 6-point lead.

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    In a podcast about a half day ago, Steve Kornacki reported that among voters who voted in 2020 AND 2022 Harris has a 6-point lead.

     
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2024 - 1:19 PM ET #243

    Trump is back up to 54% at 538.  I have no explanation for the 2% jump.

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    Trump is back up to 54% at 538.  I have no explanation for the 2% jump.

     
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2024 - 1:39 PM ET #244

    Harris Leads Nationally Among Likely Voters

    A new YouGov survey shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump nationally among likely voters, 51% to 47%.

    Among respondents who say they will definitely vote, Harris leads 52% to 46%.

    https://politicalwire.com/2024/10/28/harris-leads-nationally-among-likely-voters-2/

    *******

    YouGov is a sharp pollster ranked #4 by 538. 

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    Harris Leads Nationally Among Likely Voters

    A new YouGov survey shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump nationally among likely voters, 51% to 47%.

    Among respondents who say they will definitely vote, Harris leads 52% to 46%.

    https://politicalwire.com/2024/10/28/harris-leads-nationally-among-likely-voters-2/

    *******

    YouGov is a sharp pollster ranked #4 by 538. 

     
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2024 - 6:42 PM ET #245

    538's current EV estimate is Trump 277 - Harris 261 with PA in Trump's column.  538 estimates that Trump is a 53-47 (-113) favorite to carry PA.  Assuming all other state estimates prove accurate, if Harris does grab PA she would prevail 280-258.  Anybody laying Trump -170 or more has a huge negative expected value.

    Good luck with that.

     

     

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    538's current EV estimate is Trump 277 - Harris 261 with PA in Trump's column.  538 estimates that Trump is a 53-47 (-113) favorite to carry PA.  Assuming all other state estimates prove accurate, if Harris does grab PA she would prevail 280-258.  Anybody laying Trump -170 or more has a huge negative expected value.

    Good luck with that.

     

     

     
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2024 - 7:53 PM ET #246

    The actual impact of the gender gap is persistently underreported.  For example, I just saw a CBS News podcast which showed Harris up 10 points with women and Trump up 9 points with men.  The analyst failed to report that women are registered to vote at a higher rate than men, and that larger group of women actually votes at a higher rate than men.

    In 2020 68.4% of eligible women reported voting as opposed to just 65.0% of men, and that was before Dobbs.

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    The actual impact of the gender gap is persistently underreported.  For example, I just saw a CBS News podcast which showed Harris up 10 points with women and Trump up 9 points with men.  The analyst failed to report that women are registered to vote at a higher rate than men, and that larger group of women actually votes at a higher rate than men.

    In 2020 68.4% of eligible women reported voting as opposed to just 65.0% of men, and that was before Dobbs.

     
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2024 - 11:15 PM ET #247

    Trump’s Puerto Rico Fallout ‘Spreading Like Wildfire’

    Donald Trump has a serious Puerto Rico problem — in Pennsylvania,” Politico reports.

    “Many Puerto Rican voters in the state are furious about racist and demeaning comments delivered at a Trump rally. Some say their dismay is giving Kamala Harris a new opening to win over the state’s Latino voters, particularly nearly half a million Pennsylvanians of Puerto Rican descent.”

    New York Times: Puerto Ricans in Philadelphia are angered by bigoted remarks at Trump rally.

    https://politicalwire.com/2024/10/28/trumps-puerto-rico-fallout-spreading-like-wildfire/

    *******

    There are more than 450,000 Puerto Ricans living in Pennsylvania.  Of course not all of them are adult registered voters, but many non-Puerto Ricans will find this bigotry highly offensive.

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    Trump’s Puerto Rico Fallout ‘Spreading Like Wildfire’

    Donald Trump has a serious Puerto Rico problem — in Pennsylvania,” Politico reports.

    “Many Puerto Rican voters in the state are furious about racist and demeaning comments delivered at a Trump rally. Some say their dismay is giving Kamala Harris a new opening to win over the state’s Latino voters, particularly nearly half a million Pennsylvanians of Puerto Rican descent.”

    New York Times: Puerto Ricans in Philadelphia are angered by bigoted remarks at Trump rally.

    https://politicalwire.com/2024/10/28/trumps-puerto-rico-fallout-spreading-like-wildfire/

    *******

    There are more than 450,000 Puerto Ricans living in Pennsylvania.  Of course not all of them are adult registered voters, but many non-Puerto Ricans will find this bigotry highly offensive.

     
    Europa
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    Posted: Oct. 29, 2024 - 2:03 AM ET #248

    Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

    Trump’s Puerto Rico Fallout ‘Spreading Like Wildfire’ Donald Trump has a serious Puerto Rico problem — in Pennsylvania,” Politico reports. “Many Puerto Rican voters in the state are furious about racist and demeaning comments delivered at a Trump rally. Some say their dismay is giving Kamala Harris a new opening to win over the state’s Latino voters, particularly nearly half a million Pennsylvanians of Puerto Rican descent.” New York Times: Puerto Ricans in Philadelphia are angered by bigoted remarks at Trump rally. https://politicalwire.com/2024/10/28/trumps-puerto-rico-fallout-spreading-like-wildfire/ ******* There are more than 450,000 Puerto Ricans living in Pennsylvania.  Of course not all of them are adult registered voters, but many non-Puerto Ricans will find this bigotry highly offensive.

    Harris-Walz camp presents people with the inclusion. To the opposite, Trump-Vance ticket appears to run the exclusive campaign and shrink their tent.  

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    Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

    Trump’s Puerto Rico Fallout ‘Spreading Like Wildfire’ Donald Trump has a serious Puerto Rico problem — in Pennsylvania,” Politico reports. “Many Puerto Rican voters in the state are furious about racist and demeaning comments delivered at a Trump rally. Some say their dismay is giving Kamala Harris a new opening to win over the state’s Latino voters, particularly nearly half a million Pennsylvanians of Puerto Rican descent.” New York Times: Puerto Ricans in Philadelphia are angered by bigoted remarks at Trump rally. https://politicalwire.com/2024/10/28/trumps-puerto-rico-fallout-spreading-like-wildfire/ ******* There are more than 450,000 Puerto Ricans living in Pennsylvania.  Of course not all of them are adult registered voters, but many non-Puerto Ricans will find this bigotry highly offensive.

    Harris-Walz camp presents people with the inclusion. To the opposite, Trump-Vance ticket appears to run the exclusive campaign and shrink their tent.  

     
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Oct. 29, 2024 - 2:18 AM ET #249

    @Europa

    Trump's Islamophia and xenophobia helped him galvanize low-propensity voters and increase rural turnout which led him to victory in 2016.  I certainly hope hatemongering doesn't work again.

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    @Europa

    Trump's Islamophia and xenophobia helped him galvanize low-propensity voters and increase rural turnout which led him to victory in 2016.  I certainly hope hatemongering doesn't work again.

     
     
    Europa
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    Posted: Oct. 29, 2024 - 2:30 AM ET #250

    @DogbiteWilliams 

    Trump's campaign pitches xenophobia to lure only his hard core base. On the other hand, the Kamala Harris coalition consists of much broader groups as such women, minority, college educated white men, moderate Republicans, naturalized US citizens, Gen Z, first time voters... and so on.   

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    @DogbiteWilliams 

    Trump's campaign pitches xenophobia to lure only his hard core base. On the other hand, the Kamala Harris coalition consists of much broader groups as such women, minority, college educated white men, moderate Republicans, naturalized US citizens, Gen Z, first time voters... and so on.   

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