The news from Electoral Vote is not all good for the Democrats. EV is now predicting that the GOP will pick up 3 Senate seats - MT, OH and WV, which would leave the GOP with Senate control by 52-48. There are 7 states within 1 to 4 points; they are outlined in pink or pale blue.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Senate/senate_races.html
The battle of which party controlling Senate majority seems pretty tight, it could settle at 50-50 in the end. One day to go, let's see.
The 270toWin consensus map as of 2024-11-01 had DEM 226 and REP 216. The 93 unassigned EVs are all from the standard seven swing states.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast
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The final 2024 presidential forecast from CNalysis (of whom I know nothing) dated today. They have assigned all states and have DEM 308 and REP 230. It is a very pro-Harris map with AZ the only swing state predicted for Trump and it's just a minimal Tilt.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/cnalysis-2024-presidential-forecast
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CNalysis website's own odds:
President Harris 52.2%, Trump 46.4% (Harris does NOT want the new House to pick the winner)
Senate DEM 27.3%, GOP 72.7%
House DEM 53.4%, GOP 46.6%
https://cnalysis.com/
Well, looks kind of dismal. I was down when Hillary lost--she would've been a great POTUS, and be ending her second term..
Looks like urban voting and female voting is down in early voting, and democrats need to overcome early voting advantages in PA and AZ, which is a first. Wisconsin is unpredictable.
It all depends on turnout, and noone knows or can predict that. I don't want to invest even $10 on these scammy Trump sneakers, Trump commerative coin, or Trump coloring book, and wouldn't want to put even a $5 Abe Lincoln note on him to win.
I don't think these Rogan, Elon and RFK, Jr endorsements matter much....it's all on the turnout.
The Dixville Notch NH results are already in because, as is custom, the few residents vote right after midnight. The four Republicans and two Independents split 3-3.
I hope this tiny early result is a sign of what turns out to be an underestimated GOP crossover vote and Independents skewing Blue.
The New York Times, which has the good fortune to not be owned by Jeff Bezos, posted this brief statement to its website:
You already know Donald Trump. He is unfit to lead. Watch him. Listen to those who know him best. He tried to subvert an election and remains a threat to democracy. He helped overturn Roe, with terrible consequences. Mr. Trump's corruption and lawlessness go beyond elections: It's his whole ethos. He lies without limit. If he's re-elected, the G.O.P. won't restrain him. Mr. Trump will use the government to go after opponents. He will pursue a cruel policy of mass deportations. He will wreak havoc on the poor, the middle class and employers. Another Trump term will damage the climate, shatter alliances and strengthen autocrats. Americans should demand better. Vote.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/
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Nailed it.
In addition to women, minority and young voters, those are the two crucial groups to decide the winners for this election.
From Electoral Vote:
Republicans Like What They See in Nevada: The Republicans did particularly well in Nevada in early voting, banking 50,000 more ballots than the Democrats did. Not all Republicans actually vote Republican, but if most of them do/did, then that's a tough hill for Harris to climb.
Democrats Like What They See in Pennsylvania...: It's a small-ish data point, but potentially an important one: The number of Republican senior citizens voting in Pennsylvania is down, as compared to past elections. To be more specific, Pennsylvania seniors are roughly equally divided between the two parties, but in early voting, the Democrats are getting 58% of the senior vote as compared to 35% for the Republicans. If that trend continues, it's bad news for the GOP.
Also, the gender gap in Pennsylvania is larger than the national average, checking in at 13 points (56% women voters, 43% men).
...And Georgia: Kamala Harris' polling the Sun Belt isn't great, and Georgia is her weakest state of the seven swing states, but early voting is through the roof there. The Peach State might end up having more early votes than in 2020, which would make it an anomaly. And a big part of what's powering the early voting is record early turnout among Black voters. Undoubtedly, those votes will skew heavily for Harris, as more than 80% of Black Georgians are Democrats.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/
Established in 1995,
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