2024 US Election Betting Hub

I too believed she was going to win at that point as did most, INCLUDING THE REPUBLICAN CAMPAIGN....

BUT....

that was BEFORE James Comey, then the REPUBLICAN FBI director, sent a letter to Congress announcing the now "infamous" reopening of the Clinton email probe - which he had previously closed - on Oct. 28, 2016, 11 days before the Nov. 8 election - and in violation of their own FBI rules to not interfere during election years

... and everything changed after that...the ramifications of which just may be felt for years to come if the convicted FELON regains the presidency...

@fubah2

the ramifications of which just may be felt for years to come if the convicted FELON regains the presidency...

Not likely it happens, and Democrats could flip the House to check the unlikely second Trump presidency if he should win in next month. Only in few weeks, we will know.  

Harris has made marginal progress per 538 today.  WI has move from Even to Harris + 0.4% and MI has moved from Harris +0.1% to Harris +0.4%.  PA has moved from Trump +0.6% to Trump + 0.3%.

Per 538, PA remains the most likely tipping point state (20.9%).  Harris still needs to make more progress.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/#influential-races

@fubah2

I would advise you to make any wager a small one.  ALL of the swing state polls are currently within the margin of error and any state that moves to +4% or more will come with a heavy price.

I am aware that Trump has made inroads with blacks and Hispanics.  I am presenting this analysis more to buck up my fellow liberals than to claim this makes Harris a wise bet.

https://x.com/LaurenHitt/status/1848348304112837012?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1848370468157280294%7Ctwgr%5Eafabf351b35150a571a9c787a1fb79c83ead60be%7Ctwcon%5Es3_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dpoliticalwiret_i%3D171904020https3A2F2Fpoliticalwire.com2F3Fp3D1719040t_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fpoliticalwire.com2F20242F102F212Fgop-lawmaker-compared-michigan-to-nazi-germany2Ft_e%3DGOP20Lawmaker20Compared20Michigan20to20Nazi20Germanyt_d%3DGOP20Lawmaker20Compared20Michigan20to20Nazi20Germanyt_t%3DGOP20Lawmaker20Compared20Michigan20to20Nazi20Germanys_o%3Dpopularversion%3Db040cc4fb9749f836fa39cae48953897

McConnell exposes deep anti-Trump sentiment within Senate GOP:

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4940067-mcconnell-trump-senate-gop/

To know him is to loathe him.  Many of those who served him during his Presidency have very negative opinions of him.  Many have endorsed Harris even though they are Republicans.

There is nothing wrong with vigilance in terms of betting, 

"Donald Trump's Chances Soar in Top Election Forecast"(1*)

"Donald Trump Now Favorite With Five Major Election Forecasters"(2*)

(*1)Newsweek

(*2)Newsweek

As I've posted from last night in this tread, Hillary Clinton had 91% chance of winning the presidential election from a NY Times article back in Oct of 2016.

I like Harris' chances, good luck DogbiteWilliams.   

@Europa

 Thanks.  Good luck to you, too.

The exuberant Trump bettors continue to pour money into what may be shaping up to be a financial disaster.  He now leads by 20.6% at EBO!!!

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Meanwhile Harris continues to make a little progress in actual polls (which certainly may be off) aggregated at 538.  Harris is now +0.6% in WI and +0.5% in MI.  Trump is now +0.2% in PA.

Trump overall has fallen from 52% to 51%.  538's current EV forecast is Trump 270, Harris 268.

Trump Secures the Popular Vote! His Victory Is Absolutely Certain!

The above YouTube is the boldest claim you will witness in the web. Trump wins popular votes and his victory is Absolutely Certain. It's even bolder than the NY Times' article "Hillary Clinton has 91% of winning in the 2016 presidential election". Not saying it won't happen, just wow.   

@Europa

Race Report must be VERY conservative.  Their YouTube vote is Trump 97%, Harris 3%.

The Morning Consult poll out today gives Harris a 4-point lead.  It's only ranked #107 at 538, but it usually features larger sample sizes.  We sports bettors appreciate that.

From poster T-Rex at Political Wire:

Across the 7 main battleground states, at the END of early voting in 2020, Dems had a modeled lead of only 341,000.

As of yesterday, across the same states, the current raw lead is ALREADY 529,000.

Can't extrapolate a ton from this data, but we can continue to feel cautiously optimistic as we send our postcards, make our calls, and knock our doors.

From the Morning Consut poll:

95% of Democrats stick with Harris while only 92% of Republicans stick with Harris.

The latest George Mason (GM) poll has Harris up 4 in GA.  There are two ways to view this:

1) It seems like an outlier compared to most other polls.

2) GM is ranked #24 (very high) by 538 and it's the most recent.

The Economist gives Trump a 54% chance of winning.

https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president

Harris has moved to Even with Trump at 538.  AZ remained unchanged while Harris gained in the other 6 swing states.

Electoral Vote has flipped WI to Harris.  Their current tally:

Harris 261, Trump 246, Ties 31 (MI and NC)

Despite the narrowing of the polls, money continues to pour in on Trump.  Heritage was forced to adjust their lines:

Trump  -165

Harris  +145

I obviously placed my wager too early.

I didn't check it that often, but Heritage's line on Harris to win the popular vote has fallen from -400 to -300 to -280.

Trump has retaken the lead - 51% at 538.  He improved in all 7 swing states.

Trump is up to 52% at 538.  He has regained the momentum.

@DogbiteWilliams 

Early voting looks favorable to Kamala Harris over Donald Trump. After Kamala Harris took over the Democrats nominee, independent voters poll from Gallup in late September shows a 9-point swing away from GOP to the Democrats, it stands at Dems 49%-GOP 45%. Women and independent voters are the two crucial groups to the Harris' victory in next month, also more and more Republicans have come out casting votes for Harris as day progresses. 

The coalition of women, minority, independents, college educated white male, naturalized US citizens, and Republicans-for-Harris... should make the huge difference for the Harris-Walz ticket.   

@Europa

 Thanks for the encouraging news.  That earned you an upvote; I needed an uplift.

Polymarket has Trump at 63.7% and the bettors have (on balance) taken Trump in all 7 swing states.

https://polymarket.com/elections