2024 US Election Betting Hub

Here are two contradictory posts about PA which further underscore how difficult predicting this election is.

"Since 2008, Democrats’ registration edge over Republicans has steadily shrunk — from a 12% advantage in April 2008 to about a 4% advantage in April 2024, according to a Spotlight PA analysis of Department of State data."

https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2024/05/pennsylvania-election-2024-voter-registration-democrat-republican-independent/

*******

"Cannot stress enough that Rs would not be dropping dozens of polls into the battlegrounds to move the polling averages if they thought they were winning. Harris leads by 4 in PA in new NYT poll. More red wave polls there than any other state."

https://x.com/SimonWDC/status/1845103624420016528?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1845103624420016528%7Ctwgr%5Ee3e6c221e0643b8e7fd6a58a2419c9b1127b7c6b%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dpoliticalwiret_i%3D171635120https3A2F2Fpoliticalwire.com2F20242F102F122Ftrump-in-better-polling-spot-now-than-last-two-races2Ft_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fpoliticalwire.com2F20242F102F122Ftrump-in-better-polling-spot-now-than-last-two-races2Ft_e%3DTrump20In20Better20Polling20Spot20Now20Than20Last20Two20Racest_d%3DTrump20In20Better20Polling20Spot20Now20Than20Last20Two20Racest_t%3DTrump20In20Better20Polling20Spot20Now20Than20Last20Two20Racess_o%3Dpopularversion%3Db040cc4fb9749f836fa39cae48953897

The New York Times/Siena College poll should be given a lot of respect because of the 282 pollsters 538 monitors, it is rated #1.

Good news for Trump in AZ.  The gender gap there favors Trump.

"In Arizona, the survey finds Trump with 50% support among likely voters to 45% for Harris with third-party candidates included in the matchup. Here, although Harris holds wide leads with traditionally core Democratic groups such as younger voters (50% to 40% among voters younger than 30) and Latino voters (58% Harris to 38% Trump), Trump holds a wider lead among men (56% to 39%) than Harris does among women (51% to 44%)."

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-harris-election-10-12-24#cm2671c9p000n3b6mwa3tmpen

You can not make up the following on your best day! The absolute wackiness of the Left. Posters inside covers actually believe the following! I will not mention names! Please help Bobby and I Make Our Children Healthy Again!

Trump's lead at EBO has further expanded to 8.4%.

Harris' chances at 538 have held steady at 53% for several days now.  However, she has made incremental progress within that rounded figure.  Her chances per 1000 have increased from 527 to 528 to 534.  The trend is slightly in her favor no matter what the Trump bettors believe. 

Heritage must have taken more Trump money.  Their latest:

Trump  -130

Harris  +110

Among some books, they have these following odds:

Trump -140ish

Harris +120ish  

The bettors seem to love Trump.  Heritage has moved their lines again:

Trump  -140

Harris  +120

EBO is also reflecting a ton of Trump money; it now has Trump up by 12%!

This polymarket and Kelshi "predicitve markets" saga continues......intresting to note the US government agencies sued Kelshi (and incidentally polymarket) claiming they were "interfering in US elections" and were gambling sites...

The US fed court system disagreed with the US agencies (Securities Commission, etc).

After this decision in October, the volume at both sites has spiked enormously, through the roof.

I don't know what to make of these "predicitve market" sites

Are they predicitve and better than the polls? Right wing polls are scoffed at as biased; mainstream polls are scoffed at by right wing pundits as trying to "have an influence on voting patterns" and so who to believe?

Checking both polymarket and kelshi  shows a 9-10% lead for Trump with 3 weeks to go. How though can these sites be more accurate than polls to reveal voters' feelings?

-170 Trump +140 Harris on Pinny. Trumps getting steamed hard coming down the home stretch.

https://kalshi.com

You can see at their website the graph.....it how the volume of money started after October 7 (when the US Sec Comm lost their lawsuit to stop Kalshi from operating)

I haven't checked polymarket in awhile, but Kalshi appears to be more Trump heavy, idk.

Most times all polls start to get closer to each other as Nov 5th looms, and start to show a statistical tie, but these predicitve markets, with over a billion dollars each......, I'm intrested to see if more money comes in on Kamala Harris in the next few weeks.

Correction:

Kalshi. com has a volume of 13 million

polymarket has over a billion.

The government chose to take on Kalshi because they were smaller, and were hoping to get a victory on them, a smaller fish, then take the ruling over to polymarket and try close them up from the US market. Probably not the end however. There is frustration by US governemnt agencies to not have control over polling data (they consider the predicitve markets a poll) and they are going to keep the pressure on them, exploring other avenues. So I don't think they will be around forever--similar to cryptocurrencies, US government agencies will find a way to regain control.

Looks to me like the betting sites (betonline...betus...) are following the lead of the predicitve markets(??). +120 to +130 on "democrat" (-150--170 on "republican") which they offer in case the name doesn't make it (they had to refund Biden wagers when he was no longer on the top oif the ticket).

I was thinking about taking Harris if she reached +115.  I dawdled and got +120 for a half unit.

@DogbiteWilliams

Good luck!  

@Europa

Thanks, but it's just a $4 half-unit wager (Yes, I bet $7 units, but I refuse to make a $3.50 wager) so it is pretty damn inconsequential.

What matters for the entire planet is that the sociopathic climate-change denier be defeated.

The bettors at EBO are currently predicting that Trump will carry all 7 swing states.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Harris's chances of winning peaked at 56% at 538.  It has plunged to just 52% currently.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

Good news for Trump voters and bettors - at 538 he is now a 52% favorite to win the election:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

I don't know if this is a mere temporary blip or if this is an actual change in momentum, but Trump is now a 51% favorite:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

Wall street journal reveals that Trump surge in Poly market may be a manufactured mirage pushed by 4 accounts dumping $30 million.  These accounts from one entity could be an influence campaign to promote Trump.

DogbiteWilliams, I like your chances. Good luck! 

@Europa

I hope you are right.

Trump is back up to 52% at 538.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Trump's lead at EBO has expanded to 15.5%.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

I'll be putting my money on whomever I believe is most likely to win the election..... not the most deserving per se.......not the popular vote per se.......not the best for the country per se..... but who will ultimately garmer the key votes in the swing states no matter how good or evil that person is....

Right now I am LEANING toward a heavy bet on the CONVICTED FELON/rapist/racist/FASCIST getting the most votes in the swing states to usher in a new era of modern FASCISM...

  But at least I will PROFIT "bigly" off it if  it happens! 

Back on October 18, 2016, NY Times has posted an article:

Presidential Forecast

Hillary Clinton has a 91% chance to win*

*https://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2016/10/18/presidential-forecast-updates/newsletter.html

Of course, Clinton lost that campaign in 2016. In 2020, with a friendly bet I took Biden +150 vs Trump. Trump surely lost that election. I think the coalition of women, minority, college educated white males, independent voters and Republicans supporting Harris means very significant in this campaign. Trump might have the double digit advantage in non-college educated white males backing him but it might not sufficient enough. We shall see in few weeks.  

Of course that was BEFORE James Comey, then the REPUBLICAN FBI director, sent a letter to Congress announcing the now "infamous" reopening of the Clinton email probe on Oct. 28, 2016, 11 days before the Nov. 8 election - and in violation of their own FBI rules to not interfere during election years