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The Kids From M.I.T. Beat Blackjack, This Kid From Cornell Is Going To Beat Sports Betting.

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Posted: #201

Quote Originally Posted by billysink:

No where, absolutely no place has that Indy Houston total hit 49. That number is not available.

Same with the Packer Philly total.

You are paying a ton of money in that package to buy points.  List the juice on your plays inclusive of points purchased.

If you are gonna buy them you'd better show that you paid for them. If you are going to preach flat betting (which you have never once explained correctly) you had better represent the proper price for your purchases.

Not everyone here is a newbie or a gullible dumb ass.

If you are going to post picks do it properly.

Before you start bashing people , look around and then post.  Its 49 at BetUs and probably elsewhere. 

 
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Posted: #202
Bryce it is 49 at BetUs cause i put it in. 
 
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Posted: #203
Packer/Philly game is also 48.5 , so i don't know where the hell billy is getting his lines at!!
 
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Posted: #204

GL tommorrow BB. Kill them Books Boy. 

 
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Posted: #205
Bryce, these people wouldn't be riding you close to as much about your typos if you hadn't claimed to be a Cornell graduate. Right away, people are going to disagree with that for a few reasons. One, it's tough to get into Cornell. The other is practically nobody on here is Ivy League or a former Ivy Leaguer. If they were, they wouldn't be on here. That's just the crowd that uses Covers, they aren't Ivy Leaguers.I think you would have been better off just not even mentioning that unless someone asked you in this thread after your write-up.
 
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Posted: #206
Not so sure about all the betting 101 advice commentary throughout your thread, but very good write-ups.

I am on the Niners and Packers as well, and am leaning towards the Dolphins.

I'll be sure to watch that Cornell education in action.
 
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Posted: #207
Quote Originally Posted by here2contribute:

Not so sure about all the betting 101 advice commentary throughout your thread, but very good write-ups.

I am on the Niners and Packers as well, and am leaning towards the Dolphins.

I'll be sure to watch that Cornell education in action.


Ha, two seconds after I post and look. Just like I said, it will never stop.  
 
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Posted: #208
Quote Originally Posted by Bryce_Bell:

I posted the under for Thursday Nights NFL game along with a 1st quarter play for those who were into that kind of thing but said the 1st quarter play was not documented because I could not enter it into wager line and underlined that.

1-0 NFL ATS

Over in College I posted 5 plays today all with writeups same as the NFL post on Thursday. The first three games have won and there are two still on the go. I won with the over in Houston UTEP last night as well.

4-0 ATS CFB

2 Plays Pending

So yes plays have been posted and entered into wagerline.

Also, for those of you who like to get your action over with early. There is a system regarding underdogs on the road early in the season in the first quarter. With all dogs at least getting +0.5 in the first quarter or better, low scores usually means a field goal or touchdown in the first quarter by the underdog secures the victory. I will not disclose this system because I can not document these plays on a tracking website. I will post these for those who wish to observe and or follow.

Tonight there will be a play on MINNESOTA VIKINGS +0.5 1ST QUARTER.

 

In recap,

MINNESOTA NEW ORLEANS UNDER 49 (-110)

 

MINNESOTA VIKINGS +0.5 1ST QUARTER

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

* You already know the First Rule of Touting: Selective Memory 

Talk in fuzzy sentences. If a pick does win, obviously take credit. If, in the rare case that it misses, break into a song and dance about how it wasn't really a play because it "can't be documented".

Well played Brycie  

 
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Posted: #209
 
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Posted: #210
dude 

 
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Posted: #211
I am on the Dolphins, but the Bills do not have a woeful secondary.
 
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Posted: #212

Quote Originally Posted by Skubishack:

Hey Z... Where did you find a Barnes and Noble? I thought they went belly up. Just curious... the one near us is closed and I saw online that they were finished.

There are still Barnes and Nobles around the Seattle area, that's were I read it.

 
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Posted: #213
Quote Originally Posted by Bryce_Bell:

First Week, High Totals? Be wary over players. Teams that come into the season looking to make a big bang in week one lighting up the score board are not usually the teams that are set by the odds makers to do so. A system well known by gamblers is play the under in totals higher then 42 in week one. I will take it a step further. Along my journey I was introduced to the system of playing week one games under the total if in fact the total is higher then 44 points. If we look at this system dating back to the start of the 1999 season the UNDER in Week One Games with a total HIGHER THEN 44 POINTS has gone 37-18. For those of you who like the winning percentage side of things, that’s 67% over the past 10 seasons. Now, to make things even better for you winning percentage junkies, this system has been even better since the boom of online sports betting in the early 2000’s. Since the start of the 2003 season, following this same system, you would of cashed your ticket at the betting window 27 of 36 times! That is a very nice 75% winning percentage that will definitely pad your wallet early in the season. To make things even better, this system is currently on a 17-3 85% run dating back to 2005!

This system is so affective because the book knows that generally speaking the public bettors love playing overs. I won’t lie, I love playing overs as well, but because of this, you must be careful when backing this publically loved bets. Early in the season, bettors have not seen a football game in nearly 6 months and are ready to rear up and fire away. These lines have been hyped up since early in the summer and there have been weeks and weeks of previews on ESPN, Websites and in Magazines. These previews are almost always more offensively focused then defensively focused, because the players the people want to hear about are the star players in the skill positions. This creates a large cloud of “offense-itis” among bettors. Put two seemingly explosive teams in a game set up for a week one shootout...except low scores.

How did this system do last season? Well going into last season the system was on a 12-1 run. If you have done the quick math you can see it went 5-2 just a year ago. However, of those five wins were all by double digits. It’s no secret, defences come together quicker then offenses. Offensive football is all about timing and rhythm. This may take a team a quarter, a game or many weeks in the case of some, forever.

There are a number of games which could qualify for the system this week but it all starts tonight with Minnesota New Orleans. I am locked in at UNDER 49 POINTS.

 

Also, for those of you who like to get your action over with early. There is a system regarding underdogs on the road early in the season in the first quarter. With all dogs at least getting +0.5 in the first quarter or better, low scores usually means a field goal or touchdown in the first quarter by the underdog secures the victory. I will not disclose this system because I can not document these plays on a tracking website. I will post these for those who wish to observe and or follow.

Tonight there will be a play on MINNESOTA VIKINGS +0.5 1ST QUARTER.

 

In recap,

MINNESOTA NEW ORLEANS UNDER 49 (-110)

 

MINNESOTA VIKINGS +0.5 1ST QUARTER

I love this O/U trend!!!!  In fact, I loved it even more this time than the first time I heard it a year ago yesterday in post #11 of this thread:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=100520990

 
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Posted: #214
Quote Originally Posted by Bryce_Bell:

Fellow Sports Gamblers,

I hope you will accept me here on this betting community. My name is Bryce Bell; I have recently finished my four year enrolment at Cornell University where I majored in Statistics. For the last two years of my four year term, I have been completing my thesis on statistics in sports gambling in hopes of winning a publishing deal with major book company. Unfortunately I was runner up to a entrant who did a major study on Oil and Gasoline. However, runner up paid off a good portion of my tuition I am here to put my two years of work to the test and use the proof to keep moving forward on the publishing deal.

I have been to the Caribbean and throughout Nevada talking and learning from the best bookmakers and the sharpest bettors. I have been given a tremendous inside look at how the book and small percentage of professional gamblers come out in the green, week after week. I have combined both sides of the equation and developed, Big Red’s Guide to Beating the Book.

Keep in mind; this is over two years of research which means there are several articles to come over the course of the NFL season. I want to find a community online which accepts my research for what it is and allows me to interact with other gamblers in the forum to get feedback and provide proof for the results I deliver over the course of the year.

With the NFL Season starting Thursday Night I would love for some of you to read and follow along with me as the season progresses. I will in post form tell you the betting fundamentals to succeeding this NFL season. If you choose to follow along it is essential you follow these fundamentals in order to make money this season. I call these fundamentals the Three Betting Commandments.

I will provide you with the Week One NFL breakdown, as well as the systems that I have researched and tested over the past 20 football seasons. These systems come from hours upon hours of looking at box scores and spread sheets to find the special formula and situation where a team covers the point spread more then it does not. I have found numerous times where this rings true and I am going to share each one with all of you.

So without putting off anymore time here are my three rules to being profitable long term. Talk to all of you tomorrow.

Can you tell us the name of the person you finished runner up to?

 
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Posted: #215

BigNiner, this leads nicely to Rule #2

Second Rule of Touting: Steal baby, Steal

Have no shame. Shame is for losers. Steal picks and write-ups any which way how

 
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Posted: #216
Quote Originally Posted by Texan:

And i believe you graduated from cornell, when I graduated from Harvard I made the mistake of bragging about it too much as well.

But when I went back to school and finished my MBA from Yale I learned to tone it down.

 
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Posted: #217
Quote Originally Posted by Bryce_Bell:

SUNDAY NFL FOOTBALL

First Sunday of the NFL season and I am FIRED up to get things going. Had a good go of things hitting the UNDER in Thursday Nights rematch of the NFC Final. Today there is a bit of everything on the go, so lets get to it!

First of all, week one of the NFL season, FORGET about the “public percentages”. It does not matter who is on what game. The only thing that matters is what game YOU are on. Do not put your money on unproven bad football teams this early in the season thinking it’s a sharp play. Week one is straight forward and blunt. With the number of mismatches this week we should all be able to take advantage of these lines. Do not place your bet based on what you think the odds makers are thinking when they set the line. Remember, the odds makers are trying to get even money on either side of the game not predict the winner. Also remember, public percentages do not move the lines, money does. Just because the San Francisco game has been at -3 all week with sites reporting 80% of public action backing them does not mean the game is a trap. It means there is just as much money coming in on Seattle as there is on San Francisco. Remember that anywhere you see public consensus out there you are getting the consensus of people who have picked a certain bet in a contest, not at the book. You will never see the amount of money on either side reported straight from the book. These are pickem style contests that give you an idea of how other people out there are betting. Do not let this throw you. You can judge who is betting where most of the time by the line move. After all the only thing that moves the line is money or in game factors, not betting volume. For example, round number purposes on a game like this there could be 80 people out there who combined to bet for $100 on San Francisco and 20 people out there who combined to bet for $100 on Seattle. It is a 80/20 public split, but the money is spread out evenly meaning no line move. Trap? I don’t think so. Just because a person bets a lot of money on a single game does not mean he is right. As we all know, rich people can be stupid too. Don’t let these things throw you off your game in week one of the season; put your money where YOU want it to go. Don’t let the way other people are betting sway your interest.

With that being said, here is where my money is going today.

San Francisco at -3 is an absolute gift. This team ran the table in the preseason and before you tell me preseason means nothing let me explain myself. San Francisco running the table in August doesn’t tell me they have a good team, I already knew that. It tells me that Coach Mike Singletary has the team right where he wants them. This is a team hidden further in the closet then next year’s Christmas presents. No one is talking about the 49ers, except me. When you turn on the TV in February, you’re going to see the Red and Gold playing for the Lombardi Trophy. Sticky it, copy and paste it, screen shot it, whatever you need to do, do it now because you will come back to here in six months time. Now I have that off my chest, I can tell you Pete “Just For Men Blonde Edition” Carroll is walking into a slaughter today. His first time coaching in the pros since his stint with the pre Tom Brady Pats is not going to be a winning one. This is a Seattle team that resembles a BMW “pre-owned” car. It does the job but is no where near what it used to be. The glory days are gone and now this Seahawk team is trying to make ends meet. Matt Hasselbeck is getting old and after losing their leading receiver from a year ago earlier in the Week (T.J. Housmandzadeh) he probably feels a little bit older. They lost their main Anti-Gore products in Patrick Kerney (retirement) and Lawrence Jackson (Detroit). Linebacker Leroy Hill is on the side lines after he dropped his joint and did time in Georgia. Russel Okung is also missing from the defense which now has bigger hole up the middle the size of Lindsey Lohan’s. San Francisco is bringing back nearly the same defense that ranked 6th in the league last season and an offense that is a year old. Alex Smith had a great pre season and is slowly starting to show us he is the quarter back we sort of expected him to be when he first came into the league. He should be even better now with a full time Crabtree out wide along with the highest paid tight end in Vernon Davis. I almost forgot to mention the 1-2 punch of Gore and Westbrook coming out of the backfield posing as one of the best combo’s of running backs in the nation. Niners have beat up on division foes in openers covering in 6 of the last 7. Overall against the West they have been on a 83% tear against the number dating back to 2008 and have won on opening day in 5 of their last 7. San Fran also fits into a solid 61% angle of teams running the table in the preseason opening as a road favourite of 3 or more points that has padded backers wallets dating back 10 seasons. Expect the Niners to do what they do best, move the ball methodically down the field, own the clock and with Mike Singletary on the side lines you better believe they will have the ball wrapped up with two hands tighter then a nuns box. (4th best turnover ratio last season.) With all this said, take the 49ers this afternoon.

 The Green Bay Packers have become road warriors of as late. If you have been on the bandwagon starting at the beginning of the 2006 season you would of turned a healthy 20-8-1 record or 71.4% winning percentage. The Eagles are a woeful 38% against the spread dating back 18 seasons opening as a 3-7 point home underdog in a non conference game. Tonight they will play their first game without one Donovan Mcnabb on the roster since the 1999 season. They have also lost one of their biggest playmakers in Brian Westbrook who is now with the 49ers. The Eagles have young receivers in DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin trying to help out new found starter Kevin Kolb who wont have much help from his backfield. Lesean McCoy will have to replace Westbrook in the backfield and will go up against the stingiest rush defense from a year ago. This major mismatch caused by the Packers defense will cause the Eagles to be a pass first offense all game long. This proves to be trouble with a developing Kevin Kolb in the pocket trying to keep up with Aaron Rodgers who is coming off one of the best pre seasons we have seen from a QB in a long time. This is going to be a long day for the young Eagles who will find themselves at the wrong end of a 2 touchdown loss this afternoon.

 

 
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Posted: #218

Oh....you mean straightforward like when both superbowl teams, plus the colts, patriots failed to cover week 1?

The Patriots were 13 point favorites against the lowly Bills and almost lost outright. The Chargers were 10 point favorite to the lowly Raiders and Almost lost outright.

By the way.....Both the Patriot game and the Charger game had something in common.....

Both favorites were being bet by 80% of the people.....but yeah....straightforward....

 
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Posted: #219
Hey Sammy11 - In order to disguise yourself better you should at least use a different font and typing style.
 
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Posted: #220
GL on your plays tomorrow BB
 
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Posted: #221
this has got to be sammy. I more improved sammy ... but sammy nonetheless
 
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Posted: #222
Quote Originally Posted by Iw1nBets:

this has got to be sammy. I more improved sammy ... but sammy nonetheless


 Man, I want some pizza..
 
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Posted: #223
Quote Originally Posted by Dude_Abides:

BigNiner, this leads nicely to Rule #2

Second Rule of Touting: Steal baby, Steal

Have no shame. Shame is for losers. Steal picks and write-ups any which way how

The flying money avatar is kinda cute too.

 

and with Mike Singletary on the side lines you better believe they will have the ball wrapped up with two hands tighter then a nuns box. (4th best turnover ratio last season.) With all this said, take the 49ers this afternoon.

  

That's a boxable offense.

 
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Posted: #224
hey , i think you are RANDIZZLE ! whats up buddy ?
 
 
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Posted: #225
Bryce_Bell is randizzle 
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