I hope you will accept me here on this betting community. My name is Bryce Bell; I have recently finished my four year enrolment at Cornell University where I majored in Statistics. For the last two years of my four year term, I have been completing my thesis on statistics in sports gambling in hopes of winning a publishing deal with major book company. Unfortunately I was runner up to a entrant who did a major study on Oil and Gasoline. However, runner up paid off a good portion of my tuition I am here to put my two years of work to the test and use the proof to keep moving forward on the publishing deal.
I have been to the Caribbean and throughout Nevada talking and learning from the best bookmakers and the sharpest bettors. I have been given a tremendous inside look at how the book and small percentage of professional gamblers come out in the green, week after week. I have combined both sides of the equation and developed, Big Red’s Guide to Beating the Book.
Keep in mind; this is over two years of research which means there are several articles to come over the course of the NFL season. I want to find a community online which accepts my research for what it is and allows me to interact with other gamblers in the forum to get feedback and provide proof for the results I deliver over the course of the year.
With the NFL Season starting Thursday Night I would love for some of you to read and follow along with me as the season progresses. I will in post form tell you the betting fundamentals to succeeding this NFL season. If you choose to follow along it is essential you follow these fundamentals in order to make money this season. I call these fundamentals the Three Betting Commandments.
I will provide you with the Week One NFL breakdown, as well as the systems that I have researched and tested over the past 20 football seasons. These systems come from hours upon hours of looking at box scores and spread sheets to find the special formula and situation where a team covers the point spread more then it does not. I have found numerous times where this rings true and I am going to share each one with all of you.
So without putting off anymore time here are my three rules to being profitable long term. Talk to all of you tomorrow.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Fellow Sports Gamblers,
I hope you will accept me here on this betting community. My name is Bryce Bell; I have recently finished my four year enrolment at Cornell University where I majored in Statistics. For the last two years of my four year term, I have been completing my thesis on statistics in sports gambling in hopes of winning a publishing deal with major book company. Unfortunately I was runner up to a entrant who did a major study on Oil and Gasoline. However, runner up paid off a good portion of my tuition I am here to put my two years of work to the test and use the proof to keep moving forward on the publishing deal.
I have been to the Caribbean and throughout Nevada talking and learning from the best bookmakers and the sharpest bettors. I have been given a tremendous inside look at how the book and small percentage of professional gamblers come out in the green, week after week. I have combined both sides of the equation and developed, Big Red’s Guide to Beating the Book.
Keep in mind; this is over two years of research which means there are several articles to come over the course of the NFL season. I want to find a community online which accepts my research for what it is and allows me to interact with other gamblers in the forum to get feedback and provide proof for the results I deliver over the course of the year.
With the NFL Season starting Thursday Night I would love for some of you to read and follow along with me as the season progresses. I will in post form tell you the betting fundamentals to succeeding this NFL season. If you choose to follow along it is essential you follow these fundamentals in order to make money this season. I call these fundamentals the Three Betting Commandments.
I will provide you with the Week One NFL breakdown, as well as the systems that I have researched and tested over the past 20 football seasons. These systems come from hours upon hours of looking at box scores and spread sheets to find the special formula and situation where a team covers the point spread more then it does not. I have found numerous times where this rings true and I am going to share each one with all of you.
So without putting off anymore time here are my three rules to being profitable long term. Talk to all of you tomorrow.
The first step to profiting on more of your wagers does not lie in the information you gather, shopping around for better lines, betting early or later during the day or having the right handicapper working for you. It all begins with having the right state of mind. You all know the books have the advantage over you pregame, halftime and postgame. If you don’t believe that, trust me, I have worked for multiple books, casinos and private bookmakers, they always have that edge. However, in order to be a profitable gambler, you must get every edge you can to even the playing field. I am sure you have heard the obvious ones such as laying less juice, getting in with the best line, buying the hook ect. They all work, but what you are missing is the oldest and most important strategy to beating your book.
If NFL Quarterbacks knew how their whole game played out, the decisions they made in the first quarter, would be significantly different from what they normally would be. If Tom Brady knew that he would score three times in the fourth quarter, he would probably be more cautious not to give up turnovers and control the clock to insure those 21 points would be the most beneficial. If a PGA pro knew he would finish with three consecutive birdies, he would most likely keep the ball in play off the tee by hitting a 3 wood and play for par on the tougher holes instead of grinding out those birdies and risking a big number. If you knew that you would win six of your seven bets on the weekend, you would probably bet smaller Monday through Friday. The only problem with these three situations is you simply don’t know what is going to happen on the next snap, shot or wager. Yet, we are basing our wagers on a weeklong basis. How many times have you found yourself down early in the week only to double up on a big Wednesday Night MAC Conference football game hoping to get back to even for Saturday and Sunday? How many times have you changed up your game plan because you want to cash out big on Monday and missed out on a couple games you liked over the weekend?
Bookmakers have worked on the week long basis since the first day of existence. The reason is simple; a large majority of bettors will not win over the long term. We have all heard the 99.5% of bettors lose in their lifetime, and 90% of bettors lose each football season and all those sales pitches tossed around. Although we may be afraid to admit it, why lay worse odds when you can keep it at 50/50, day by day, and stroke by stroke, down by down. The average football game will have a public backing of about 57/43 on the point spread. This means that 57% of the backers will win on this particular day, or 57% of the backers will lose. A far cry from that 90/10 spread talked about earlier. Also by taking things day by day, your only goal is to be up at the end of the day regardless of what happened on the previous day. Forget about the end of the week, if you are up or down or if your third string quarterback got sacked for a safety on the last play of the game to lose the cover.Worry about today, and tonight, nothing else matters.
I guarantee by working on a day by day consistent basis that you will find yourself winning more of your bets and being in the green come the end of the week with your bookmaker.
0
The first step to profiting on more of your wagers does not lie in the information you gather, shopping around for better lines, betting early or later during the day or having the right handicapper working for you. It all begins with having the right state of mind. You all know the books have the advantage over you pregame, halftime and postgame. If you don’t believe that, trust me, I have worked for multiple books, casinos and private bookmakers, they always have that edge. However, in order to be a profitable gambler, you must get every edge you can to even the playing field. I am sure you have heard the obvious ones such as laying less juice, getting in with the best line, buying the hook ect. They all work, but what you are missing is the oldest and most important strategy to beating your book.
If NFL Quarterbacks knew how their whole game played out, the decisions they made in the first quarter, would be significantly different from what they normally would be. If Tom Brady knew that he would score three times in the fourth quarter, he would probably be more cautious not to give up turnovers and control the clock to insure those 21 points would be the most beneficial. If a PGA pro knew he would finish with three consecutive birdies, he would most likely keep the ball in play off the tee by hitting a 3 wood and play for par on the tougher holes instead of grinding out those birdies and risking a big number. If you knew that you would win six of your seven bets on the weekend, you would probably bet smaller Monday through Friday. The only problem with these three situations is you simply don’t know what is going to happen on the next snap, shot or wager. Yet, we are basing our wagers on a weeklong basis. How many times have you found yourself down early in the week only to double up on a big Wednesday Night MAC Conference football game hoping to get back to even for Saturday and Sunday? How many times have you changed up your game plan because you want to cash out big on Monday and missed out on a couple games you liked over the weekend?
Bookmakers have worked on the week long basis since the first day of existence. The reason is simple; a large majority of bettors will not win over the long term. We have all heard the 99.5% of bettors lose in their lifetime, and 90% of bettors lose each football season and all those sales pitches tossed around. Although we may be afraid to admit it, why lay worse odds when you can keep it at 50/50, day by day, and stroke by stroke, down by down. The average football game will have a public backing of about 57/43 on the point spread. This means that 57% of the backers will win on this particular day, or 57% of the backers will lose. A far cry from that 90/10 spread talked about earlier. Also by taking things day by day, your only goal is to be up at the end of the day regardless of what happened on the previous day. Forget about the end of the week, if you are up or down or if your third string quarterback got sacked for a safety on the last play of the game to lose the cover.Worry about today, and tonight, nothing else matters.
I guarantee by working on a day by day consistent basis that you will find yourself winning more of your bets and being in the green come the end of the week with your bookmaker.
The term Return On Investment, or ROI for short term purposes is tossed around mainly on the stock market, but it can also be applied to sports gambling. The term is rather self explanatory, how much money you get in return for the amount you put in. As far as the stock market goes the benchmark is right around the 10% mark over a 12 month year. In sports gambling the ROI is calculated by taking the net winnings or losses and dividing by the amount risked, or invested. If you are laying regular -110 juice, then your ROI on a single win would be 90.9% ($110 to win $100). The breakeven rate in sports betting always laying -110 is 52.38% or the break even point which has an ROI of 0%. Here is a table I have made up to give you a better idea of the various ROI%’s per win percentage rate.
50%..............-4.55% ROI
55%..............+5.225 ROI
58%..............+10.83% ROI
62%..............+18.38% ROI
65%..............+26.00% ROI
For all of you playing the stock market out there, you can see that for the yearly return of the benchmark 10% you would need to hit 58% of your bets to hit around that mark. Considering that the NFL football season is six months long (September through January/February) your only going to need to get a 5% ROI in order to get stock market like returns. As you can see on the table to do so your only going to need to cash in your betting slip 55 of a 100 times at the window.
With this information being said, I urge all of you to flat bet and take this long term. Little do you know starting with only $1000 in the bankroll betting at a pace of 4% per wager hitting 55% over the course of 3500 plays (roughly 5 years of betting) your account will blossom into a healthy $500,000. Not to bad.
0
The term Return On Investment, or ROI for short term purposes is tossed around mainly on the stock market, but it can also be applied to sports gambling. The term is rather self explanatory, how much money you get in return for the amount you put in. As far as the stock market goes the benchmark is right around the 10% mark over a 12 month year. In sports gambling the ROI is calculated by taking the net winnings or losses and dividing by the amount risked, or invested. If you are laying regular -110 juice, then your ROI on a single win would be 90.9% ($110 to win $100). The breakeven rate in sports betting always laying -110 is 52.38% or the break even point which has an ROI of 0%. Here is a table I have made up to give you a better idea of the various ROI%’s per win percentage rate.
50%..............-4.55% ROI
55%..............+5.225 ROI
58%..............+10.83% ROI
62%..............+18.38% ROI
65%..............+26.00% ROI
For all of you playing the stock market out there, you can see that for the yearly return of the benchmark 10% you would need to hit 58% of your bets to hit around that mark. Considering that the NFL football season is six months long (September through January/February) your only going to need to get a 5% ROI in order to get stock market like returns. As you can see on the table to do so your only going to need to cash in your betting slip 55 of a 100 times at the window.
With this information being said, I urge all of you to flat bet and take this long term. Little do you know starting with only $1000 in the bankroll betting at a pace of 4% per wager hitting 55% over the course of 3500 plays (roughly 5 years of betting) your account will blossom into a healthy $500,000. Not to bad.
This is a story of two gamblers. Gambler A is named Pat and Gambler B is named Rick. Pat works a desk job and saves and conserves his money. Rick is a bartender and loves to party and spend his money. At the start of a football season these two decide they are each going to deposit $1000 into a sportsbook and bet on football. Since these two are good friends they decide to bet the same games each week and watch them together. Rick says he is going to be $200 a game and Pat decides he is going to bet $50 a game. Although they argue over which option is best they agree to disagree and begin playing their week one games.
In week one the guys go 3-1. Rick makes $480, Pat makes $95. In week two the group goes 2-0. Rick is up to $1880 in his betting account while Pat is up to $1195. Rick is so sure they are going to keep winning he continuously tried to convince Pat to up his bet size. Pat resists and they move onto week three.
In the third week their luck turns and the guys go 1-3. Rick loses $460 and Pat loses $105. In week four their misfourtune continues as they go 0-5. Rick loses a total of $1000 while Pat looses $220. Rick has lost a total of $1560 and his bankroll is down to $220. Pat has lost a total of $380 and his bankroll is down to $825. Rick begins to panic and decides that he can no longer bet and pulls out after four weeks. Pat continues to keep going by himself and faces a 2-2 week that dropped his bankroll to $820 then went 3-1, 4-2 and 5-3 in weeks six, seven and eight. With a bankroll of $1075 now, Pat finishes the regular season hitting a respectable 57% going 20-14 to finish the season.
Pat finishes the season with $1305 in his betting account. With his 5% consistent money management system he was able to sustain the losing streak which will happen to everyone every season and battle back to finish up $300 a return on his initial investment of 30%! What happened to Pat? He ended up losing his $600 and missing out on 14 weeks of the football season.
This just goes to show how sports betting is best bet over the long term. Once again Ill tell you keep your bet size small and consistent and you will come out on top at the end of the season.
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This is a story of two gamblers. Gambler A is named Pat and Gambler B is named Rick. Pat works a desk job and saves and conserves his money. Rick is a bartender and loves to party and spend his money. At the start of a football season these two decide they are each going to deposit $1000 into a sportsbook and bet on football. Since these two are good friends they decide to bet the same games each week and watch them together. Rick says he is going to be $200 a game and Pat decides he is going to bet $50 a game. Although they argue over which option is best they agree to disagree and begin playing their week one games.
In week one the guys go 3-1. Rick makes $480, Pat makes $95. In week two the group goes 2-0. Rick is up to $1880 in his betting account while Pat is up to $1195. Rick is so sure they are going to keep winning he continuously tried to convince Pat to up his bet size. Pat resists and they move onto week three.
In the third week their luck turns and the guys go 1-3. Rick loses $460 and Pat loses $105. In week four their misfourtune continues as they go 0-5. Rick loses a total of $1000 while Pat looses $220. Rick has lost a total of $1560 and his bankroll is down to $220. Pat has lost a total of $380 and his bankroll is down to $825. Rick begins to panic and decides that he can no longer bet and pulls out after four weeks. Pat continues to keep going by himself and faces a 2-2 week that dropped his bankroll to $820 then went 3-1, 4-2 and 5-3 in weeks six, seven and eight. With a bankroll of $1075 now, Pat finishes the regular season hitting a respectable 57% going 20-14 to finish the season.
Pat finishes the season with $1305 in his betting account. With his 5% consistent money management system he was able to sustain the losing streak which will happen to everyone every season and battle back to finish up $300 a return on his initial investment of 30%! What happened to Pat? He ended up losing his $600 and missing out on 14 weeks of the football season.
This just goes to show how sports betting is best bet over the long term. Once again Ill tell you keep your bet size small and consistent and you will come out on top at the end of the season.
The chances of this guy being Ivy League educated are virtually non-existent.
Looks like somebody's trying to kick-start a tout career.
LOL...it does sound that way however he is right about the flat bets. Why would any game be worth more than another? If you don't like it enough to bet normal units, why bet it at all? I dunno about you but if I go 2-1 and lose money because I bet different amounts I'd be pissed...and destined to lose in the long run.
Just my .02
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Quote Originally Posted by ValueforRent:
The chances of this guy being Ivy League educated are virtually non-existent.
Looks like somebody's trying to kick-start a tout career.
LOL...it does sound that way however he is right about the flat bets. Why would any game be worth more than another? If you don't like it enough to bet normal units, why bet it at all? I dunno about you but if I go 2-1 and lose money because I bet different amounts I'd be pissed...and destined to lose in the long run.
Let's give the guy a chance. Actions speak louder than words anyways. His advice is decent. Now I'd like to see his selections and his reasoning behind his selections. That's how you earn your stripes around here... and probably why I have none LOL.
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Let's give the guy a chance. Actions speak louder than words anyways. His advice is decent. Now I'd like to see his selections and his reasoning behind his selections. That's how you earn your stripes around here... and probably why I have none LOL.
The chances of this guy being Ivy League educated are virtually non-existent.
Looks like somebody's trying to kick-start a tout career.
Yeah...I'm with you, Value. Those pesky little mistakes like ect, and not to bad are red flags. You spell something wrong on your resume, well that's the kiss of death. If you are supposedly a Cornell graduate then you should be Glaswegian kissed to death on general principles.
I can't wait until Big Red’s Guide to Beating the Book hits the shops as mentioned in Post #1. I have a feeling that Secretariat could have written a better book...
Good luck, Mr. Bell
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Quote Originally Posted by ValueforRent:
The chances of this guy being Ivy League educated are virtually non-existent.
Looks like somebody's trying to kick-start a tout career.
Yeah...I'm with you, Value. Those pesky little mistakes like ect, and not to bad are red flags. You spell something wrong on your resume, well that's the kiss of death. If you are supposedly a Cornell graduate then you should be Glaswegian kissed to death on general principles.
I can't wait until Big Red’s Guide to Beating the Book hits the shops as mentioned in Post #1. I have a feeling that Secretariat could have written a better book...
With this information being said, I urge all of you to flat bet and take this long term. Little do you know starting with only $1000 in the bankroll betting at a pace of 4% per wager hitting 55% over the course of 3500 plays (roughly 5 years of betting) your account will blossom into a healthy $500,000. Not to bad.
This is just total bs right here. R u serious man lol 3500 plays in roughly 5 years is a little over 9.5 plays a day so lets just say 10 games a day it all depends what I do everyday what my profit will be it will not average out if you hit 55-45 for 3500 games betting 4 percent and trun 1000 into 500000 k. This is a joke man get lost
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With this information being said, I urge all of you to flat bet and take this long term. Little do you know starting with only $1000 in the bankroll betting at a pace of 4% per wager hitting 55% over the course of 3500 plays (roughly 5 years of betting) your account will blossom into a healthy $500,000. Not to bad.
This is just total bs right here. R u serious man lol 3500 plays in roughly 5 years is a little over 9.5 plays a day so lets just say 10 games a day it all depends what I do everyday what my profit will be it will not average out if you hit 55-45 for 3500 games betting 4 percent and trun 1000 into 500000 k. This is a joke man get lost
The theory behind is very simple. In practice it is a lot harder.
If your good enough to find the right lines and hit 55% + really low juice books, and you bet 100 per unit, Ii will take you 200 bets to make $1000. The 200 bets have to be solid bets and calculated which you cannot find many. Therefore to make $1000 will take you a long time (considering you stick to flat betting + keep your emotions in check when you have a tough run and thirdly you pick enough winners to make profit). That's why it is very difficult to make money in sports capping.
Also the Pat & Rick example was stupid. Where did you copy that example from? It is all situational. If Ricky Cashes out after week 2. He would be up $880 for 2 weeks and if Pat keep going for the whole season he only makes $305 for the whole season providing he goes 20/34 for the season which is really difficult as we all know.
At the end of the day if you can pick minimum 55% winners on a consistent basis and keep your emotions in touch you may make a small profit. Hence 55% doesn't sound that difficult but trust me it is. To make it worth while you need to hit around 57-60% and bet fairly large wagers, therefore you will need a extremely large bankroll.
Sorry I've been mainly negative throughout my post, I did enjoy the read and I wish you good luck in you theory and hope it succeeds but it won't be as easy as in theory
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The theory behind is very simple. In practice it is a lot harder.
If your good enough to find the right lines and hit 55% + really low juice books, and you bet 100 per unit, Ii will take you 200 bets to make $1000. The 200 bets have to be solid bets and calculated which you cannot find many. Therefore to make $1000 will take you a long time (considering you stick to flat betting + keep your emotions in check when you have a tough run and thirdly you pick enough winners to make profit). That's why it is very difficult to make money in sports capping.
Also the Pat & Rick example was stupid. Where did you copy that example from? It is all situational. If Ricky Cashes out after week 2. He would be up $880 for 2 weeks and if Pat keep going for the whole season he only makes $305 for the whole season providing he goes 20/34 for the season which is really difficult as we all know.
At the end of the day if you can pick minimum 55% winners on a consistent basis and keep your emotions in touch you may make a small profit. Hence 55% doesn't sound that difficult but trust me it is. To make it worth while you need to hit around 57-60% and bet fairly large wagers, therefore you will need a extremely large bankroll.
Sorry I've been mainly negative throughout my post, I did enjoy the read and I wish you good luck in you theory and hope it succeeds but it won't be as easy as in theory
With this information being said, I urge all of you to flat bet and take this long term. Little do you know starting with only $1000 in the bankroll betting at a pace of 4% per wager hitting 55% over the course of 3500 plays (roughly 5 years of betting) your account will blossom into a healthy $500,000. Not to bad.
This is just total bs right here. R u serious man lol 3500 plays in roughly 5 years is a little over 9.5 plays a day so lets just say 10 games a day it all depends what I do everyday what my profit will be it will not average out if you hit 55-45 for 3500 games betting 4 percent and trun 1000 into 500000 k. This is a joke man get lost
0
Quote Originally Posted by winddust:
With this information being said, I urge all of you to flat bet and take this long term. Little do you know starting with only $1000 in the bankroll betting at a pace of 4% per wager hitting 55% over the course of 3500 plays (roughly 5 years of betting) your account will blossom into a healthy $500,000. Not to bad.
This is just total bs right here. R u serious man lol 3500 plays in roughly 5 years is a little over 9.5 plays a day so lets just say 10 games a day it all depends what I do everyday what my profit will be it will not average out if you hit 55-45 for 3500 games betting 4 percent and trun 1000 into 500000 k. This is a joke man get lost
With this information being said, I urge all of you to flat bet and take this long term. Little do you know starting with only $1000 in the bankroll betting at a pace of 4% per wager hitting 55% over the course of 3500 plays (roughly 5 years of betting) your account will blossom into a healthy $500,000. Not to bad.
This is just total bs right here. R u serious man lol 3500 plays in roughly 5 years is a little over 9.5 plays a day so lets just say 10 games a day it all depends what I do everyday what my profit will be it will not average out if you hit 55-45 for 3500 games betting 4 percent and trun 1000 into 500000 k. This is a joke man get lost
I think it is time for you to get a new calculator. 3500 plays in five years 1.91 plays a day. That is a very conservative approach by anyone's standards.
I agree that his goals are lofty for someone that has only been studing handicapping for two years, but if you have a degree in Statistics from Cornell you have a big leg up on the field. To tell someone to get lost who may have these qualifications and is willing to share is Dumb even by Covers standards.
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Quote Originally Posted by winddust:
With this information being said, I urge all of you to flat bet and take this long term. Little do you know starting with only $1000 in the bankroll betting at a pace of 4% per wager hitting 55% over the course of 3500 plays (roughly 5 years of betting) your account will blossom into a healthy $500,000. Not to bad.
This is just total bs right here. R u serious man lol 3500 plays in roughly 5 years is a little over 9.5 plays a day so lets just say 10 games a day it all depends what I do everyday what my profit will be it will not average out if you hit 55-45 for 3500 games betting 4 percent and trun 1000 into 500000 k. This is a joke man get lost
I think it is time for you to get a new calculator. 3500 plays in five years 1.91 plays a day. That is a very conservative approach by anyone's standards.
I agree that his goals are lofty for someone that has only been studing handicapping for two years, but if you have a degree in Statistics from Cornell you have a big leg up on the field. To tell someone to get lost who may have these qualifications and is willing to share is Dumb even by Covers standards.
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