Posted:
#76
thank for the write up. wait for your post. 
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How to Win at Betting Baseball
Posted:
#78
Posted: 4/1/2009 8:36:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Stever1:
Coldfront, i took one of your systems into consideration and tweaked it, my system now is playing top ranked teams after they have lost 2 straight at home.
My teams are TB, BOS, NYY, CLE, MIN, LAA, PHI, NYM, CHI, LAD, ARZ.
the record doing this last year with these teams was 52-18. and the average chalk per each game averaged out to -135.
so betting 100 dollars a game, you would have made 5200-2025 for a profit of 3175.
Coldfront, i took one of your systems into consideration and tweaked it, my system now is playing top ranked teams after they have lost 2 straight at home.
My teams are TB, BOS, NYY, CLE, MIN, LAA, PHI, NYM, CHI, LAD, ARZ.
the record doing this last year with these teams was 52-18. and the average chalk per each game averaged out to -135.
so betting 100 dollars a game, you would have made 5200-2025 for a profit of 3175.
Stever1,
Is that not 5200 - 2430 for a 2770.00 gain
18 losses x -135 average = 2430 not 2025
Also you would have layed on ave -135 x 70 games = 9450.00
52 wins x 100 = + 5200.00
18 losses x 135= - 2430.00
GAIN = 2770.00
Still very good about a 30% return in 5 months or so!
Does that sound right to you guys?
And your telling Gamehunter he doesn't know what he is doing. Best of luck GH
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Fantastic stuff
Posted:
#83
Last year was my first year wagering at Baseball. I read your write-up and thought I knew what you were talking about. This year, I really understand what you're saying. Thanks for putting in the time, Bro. It's appreciated. BTW, do have any certain way you look at spring training ball or is it 
. Last year a capper who can't be named had an awesome spring. Thanks again for giving back.
. Last year a capper who can't be named had an awesome spring. Thanks again for giving back.
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Posted:
#84
Quote Originally Posted by ksp47:
Last year was my first year wagering at Baseball. I read your write-up and thought I knew what you were talking about. This year, I really understand what you're saying. Thanks for putting in the time, Bro. It's appreciated. BTW, do have any certain way you look at spring training ball or is it. Last year a capper who can't be named had an awesome spring. Thanks again for giving back.
Last year was my first year wagering at Baseball. I read your write-up and thought I knew what you were talking about. This year, I really understand what you're saying. Thanks for putting in the time, Bro. It's appreciated. BTW, do have any certain way you look at spring training ball or is it
. Last year a capper who can't be named had an awesome spring. Thanks again for giving back. Thanks KSP...glad you enjoyed it....spring training is all about getting the starting lineups before game time and finding out in advance how long the starters will pitch and who else is expected to throw that day..it is a completely different dynamic than regular season handicapping.
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Posted:
#87
Good Write-up, agree with 90% of it.
Disagree in terms of betting dogs....not that it's a good idea, but the numbers you provided are misleading.
Yes the worst team in baseball hits well above the average of the worst teams in other sports, but that doesn't mean dogs have more value in baseball....in fact you could even argue the opposite.
Your example failed to incorporate actually ML and spread figures....and that is the only way to show true value.
Yes, the Washington Nationals may win 35% of their games, but they don't get nearly the kind of ML prices that other poor teams in other sports do.
Marist could go 1-29 and still end up making more money then a baseball team that goes 60-102. If Marist is -10000, and the Nats are -180 every game, that is a huge difference.
I don't believe there is any more/less value in baseball in terms of betting underdogs....it's all relative.
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Posted:
#89
Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:
I have received many inquiries about a piece I wrote in March 2008 on Covers about betting baseball and I feel this piece is my most valuable contribution at Covers. Many have enjoyed reading it and I wanted to post it again before the baseball season begins. For those who have read it previously, I am sorry for the redundancy although I have added text and made numerous revisions. Best of luck to everyone this baseball season.
Written in March 2008 (revised in March 2009 and March 2010).
WHY BETTING UNDERDOGS IN BASEBALL IS DIFFERENT FROM ANY OTHER SPORT.
There are several different approaches and strategies to handicapping baseball, but the most fundamental and obvious starting point is one that is taken completely for granted. Baseball is quite unique when it comes to betting because the gaps between the best and worst teams are far closer than in any other sport. Let's look at the other major betting sports.
In the NFL this season, the Indianapolis Colts were 14-2 winning 87.5% of their games. The worst team in the NFL this past season was the St. Louis Rams at 1-15, winning just 6.25% of the time.
In the NBA this season, Cleveland is currently 47-14 winning 77% of their games and Lakers are 45-15 winning 75% of their games. The worst team in the NBA is the New Jersey Nets at 6-53 winning 10.2% of the time.
In NCAA Basketball this season, Kansas, Syracuse and Kentucky are all 27-2 with a 93.1% winning percentage. The “Board” team with the worst record in the country is Marist at 1-28, winning 3.4% of the time.
In NCAA Football, Alabama and Boise State both finished undefeated at 14-0 (100%) while Eastern Michigan and Western Kentucky both finished 0-12 (0%).
Meanwhile, the 2009 baseball season was not that much different than any other baseball season.
The New York Yankees had the best record in the majors last season at 103-59 (63.6%) and the Los Angeles Angels had the second best record at 97-65 (59.9%). The two worst teams in the majors were the Washington Nationals at 59-103 (36.4%) and the Pittsburgh Pirates at 62-99 (38.5%). These records are nowhere close to the best and worst records of any other major betting sport.
So there you have it:
Sport Best Worst
NFL 87.5% 6.25%
NBA 77.0% 10.20%
NCAAB 93.1% 3.40%
NCAAF 100% 0.00%
MLB 63.6% 36.40%
I don't like it...you are comparing Baseball with NFL, NCAAB and NBA...The difference is all of those have spreads and baseball is a money line. Yeah Marist is 1-28 or whatever...but they were 10-10-1 against the spread last time I checked. Apples and Oranges.
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Posted:
#92
Quote Originally Posted by Airmail26:
I don't like it...you are comparing Baseball with NFL, NCAAB and NBA...The difference is all of those have spreads and baseball is a money line. Yeah Marist is 1-28 or whatever...but they were 10-10-1 against the spread last time I checked. Apples and Oranges.
We're not talking about spreads here. I think you are mixing up apples and oranges here; not me. There are moneylines in college basketball. My point is in baseball any team can beat any other team on any given day. It's unlike that in any other sport. Marist is not going to beat too many teams and there are certain teams they flat out can't beat. Meanwhile the worst team in baseball beat the best team in baseball 2 out of 3 times they played last season.
I am advocating that too many people feel a false sense of security laying heavy favorites in baseball because of course, they are more likely to win. What I am advocating is an approach where people shouldn't be afraid of playing dogs and can shoot to average between +105 to +110 on their dogs and would only have to hit 47.7% to breakeven.
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Posted:
#93
Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:
The key to handicapping baseball is searching for value in relation to the line.
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not only in baseball;)
great writeup, i'm new to covers so this will be my first baseball season being around here and i will definetly look out for your threads!
bol for the season
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