line opened at my book -7 -120, +7 even... this is an interesting game
i don't think it should be below 7.5. tannehill has been good but the difference between him and mahomes and the tenn offense vs the kc offense is huge. tenn defense is good but going from @ shrimp to @ kc is really tough. and kc has been playing pretty good defense this season.
Quote Originally Posted by Titusblink:
line opened at my book -7 -120, +7 even... this is an interesting game
i don't think it should be below 7.5. tannehill has been good but the difference between him and mahomes and the tenn offense vs the kc offense is huge. tenn defense is good but going from @ shrimp to @ kc is really tough. and kc has been playing pretty good defense this season.
Going from Patriots, to Shrimp, and now KC is real tough.
If KC doesn't have 11 mental miscues in the 1Q vs the Texans, they could of won that game by 37.
Awesome matchup to handicap imo.
The Titans are going to want to slow the game down(as they have) with the run. How much gas is left in Derrick Henry's tank. Last 3 games: 96 carries for 588 yards. Is he human? The Chiefs will want DT Chris Jones do suit up for this game.
Going from Patriots, to Shrimp, and now KC is real tough.
If KC doesn't have 11 mental miscues in the 1Q vs the Texans, they could of won that game by 37.
Awesome matchup to handicap imo.
The Titans are going to want to slow the game down(as they have) with the run. How much gas is left in Derrick Henry's tank. Last 3 games: 96 carries for 588 yards. Is he human? The Chiefs will want DT Chris Jones do suit up for this game.
Also, KC vs Houston was the biggest dvoa discrepancy of the playoffs. Houston was the only team left in the playoffs with a negative +- pt differential.
Meanwhile the Titans knocked off the #1 dvoa team(by a mile) and also the Shrimp had the best +- pt differential.
So do we expect the Titans to come back to earth after such a high level performance, or do they deserve some credit?
I have no problem with how Vrabel has been managing his team.
With how KC started their game vs Houston off a bye(Reid's speciality), can we say they weren't prepared? Or was it a chain of horrible random events?
Also, KC vs Houston was the biggest dvoa discrepancy of the playoffs. Houston was the only team left in the playoffs with a negative +- pt differential.
Meanwhile the Titans knocked off the #1 dvoa team(by a mile) and also the Shrimp had the best +- pt differential.
So do we expect the Titans to come back to earth after such a high level performance, or do they deserve some credit?
I have no problem with how Vrabel has been managing his team.
With how KC started their game vs Houston off a bye(Reid's speciality), can we say they weren't prepared? Or was it a chain of horrible random events?
Also, KC vs Houston was the biggest dvoa discrepancy of the playoffs. Houston was the only team left in the playoffs with a negative +- pt differential.Meanwhile the Titans knocked off the #1 dvoa team(by a mile) and also the Shrimp had the best +- pt differential.So do we expect the Titans to come back to earth after such a high level performance, or do they deserve some credit?I have no problem with how Vrabel has been managing his team.With how KC started their game vs Houston off a bye(Reid's speciality), can we say they weren't prepared? Or was it a chain of horrible random events?
The Titans wouldn't blow a 24 point lead at any point of a game. Of course they don't have the make up to ever have a 24 point lead.
Maybe it's one of those games where the favorite wins, but doesn't cover? We haven't seen any of that yet and it's probably about time. With the Packers game pending, the point spread has not factored into any playoff game of the 7 played so far.
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Also, KC vs Houston was the biggest dvoa discrepancy of the playoffs. Houston was the only team left in the playoffs with a negative +- pt differential.Meanwhile the Titans knocked off the #1 dvoa team(by a mile) and also the Shrimp had the best +- pt differential.So do we expect the Titans to come back to earth after such a high level performance, or do they deserve some credit?I have no problem with how Vrabel has been managing his team.With how KC started their game vs Houston off a bye(Reid's speciality), can we say they weren't prepared? Or was it a chain of horrible random events?
The Titans wouldn't blow a 24 point lead at any point of a game. Of course they don't have the make up to ever have a 24 point lead.
Maybe it's one of those games where the favorite wins, but doesn't cover? We haven't seen any of that yet and it's probably about time. With the Packers game pending, the point spread has not factored into any playoff game of the 7 played so far.
We'll look at power rankings and such soon to see where this line should technically be.
With the KC game being the later game of the 2 afc games, the public will remember it better than the Titans. We could find a point or 2 of value there.
I'm listening Getty
We'll look at power rankings and such soon to see where this line should technically be.
With the KC game being the later game of the 2 afc games, the public will remember it better than the Titans. We could find a point or 2 of value there.
i've been betting for a long time and i'm pretty sure i've never won an under bet in any sport. that's why we don't believe in unders here.
anyway, now that KC is up to 7.5, i think both lines are pretty solid, which is how things work this time of year. i may bet a couple more team totals for this week. no unders though.
i've been betting for a long time and i'm pretty sure i've never won an under bet in any sport. that's why we don't believe in unders here.
anyway, now that KC is up to 7.5, i think both lines are pretty solid, which is how things work this time of year. i may bet a couple more team totals for this week. no unders though.
On the year including playoffs, the Titans +- pt differential is +94, the Chiefs is +163
Green Bay @ San Francisco
Sagarin: SF -4.34
Sagarin(recent): SF -3.13
TeamRankings(predictive): SF -4.9
TeamRankings(Last 5): SF -1.80
Pro Football Reference SRS(no HF): SF -7.77
DVOA: GB +3.3%(#15), SF +30.9%(#5)
On the year including playoffs, the Packers +- pt diff is +68, the 49ers is +186
If someone put a gun to my head with only this info to look at, I'd side with the Titans and 49ers ATS.
As you all know it's never simple. Both opponents in both matchups have all ready played this year. There's a lot to dissect from those prior games. The fact that both championship games have the same spread is alarming to me. From a quick peripheral look at the lines, sure, looks fair.
where do we find the value?
Here's some various power rankings.
Tennessee @ Kansas City
Sagarin(including sos, and his HF is worth 1.44): KC -4.65
On the year including playoffs, the Titans +- pt differential is +94, the Chiefs is +163
Green Bay @ San Francisco
Sagarin: SF -4.34
Sagarin(recent): SF -3.13
TeamRankings(predictive): SF -4.9
TeamRankings(Last 5): SF -1.80
Pro Football Reference SRS(no HF): SF -7.77
DVOA: GB +3.3%(#15), SF +30.9%(#5)
On the year including playoffs, the Packers +- pt diff is +68, the 49ers is +186
If someone put a gun to my head with only this info to look at, I'd side with the Titans and 49ers ATS.
As you all know it's never simple. Both opponents in both matchups have all ready played this year. There's a lot to dissect from those prior games. The fact that both championship games have the same spread is alarming to me. From a quick peripheral look at the lines, sure, looks fair.
^^^^ if you buy into "sharp action" I noticed as soon as the line opened in the Pack game it was immediately hammered down to 7 and then 7 -115 since then obviously back up to 7.5 ( opening line ) might be something to monitor come game day. I think they simple solution for anyone half drunk and standing in line to cash their Packers tickets ( why do idiots still do that ? it kills me ) is to simply take both dogs here at 7.5 and hope to go 2-0 but ok with going 1-1
I dont care what the packers record is and I don't care that its Aaron Rodgers, my money will be on the better coached team that will simply dissect you clinically. The other game really has my attention and will most likely have a Niners ML parlay with either of the KC -7.5 or Tenn +7.5 gems y'all come up with.
Carry on with ya bad selves.
^^^^ if you buy into "sharp action" I noticed as soon as the line opened in the Pack game it was immediately hammered down to 7 and then 7 -115 since then obviously back up to 7.5 ( opening line ) might be something to monitor come game day. I think they simple solution for anyone half drunk and standing in line to cash their Packers tickets ( why do idiots still do that ? it kills me ) is to simply take both dogs here at 7.5 and hope to go 2-0 but ok with going 1-1
I dont care what the packers record is and I don't care that its Aaron Rodgers, my money will be on the better coached team that will simply dissect you clinically. The other game really has my attention and will most likely have a Niners ML parlay with either of the KC -7.5 or Tenn +7.5 gems y'all come up with.
I'm heading west to Tampa early tomorrow and won't be back til Sunday. A little Seminole Hard Rock on the way. 7-1 ATS in the playoffs within the newsletter and an honest 8-0 last week on my own personal bets. Sometimes it just works. Other times it doesn't. My thoughts on Sunday's championship round:
For every reason I can take to play team A, I can find equal reason to play Team B. I've decided to defer to the linemakers. Both numbers sit at 7.5 right now.
The easy underdog would be Green Bay. Name recognition + the State Farm QB who won a Super Bowl, a rabid fan base and a revenge factor. Tennessee is a tougher pill to swallow. The one trick pony from Nashville vs. the Mahomes factor and the high flying Chiefs.
I think both favorites will win and teasing them down makes sense. But I liked Tennessee getting points last week and I won't back off even though I thought they'd be getting closer to 10 than 7. SettleDownSpaz, one of my favorites in the mains likes GB as the dog and it makes sense but then again it doesn't. My whole point is I'm calling the linemakers bluff and playing:
SF -7.5
TN +7.5
I hope everybody has a wonderful weekend
I'm heading west to Tampa early tomorrow and won't be back til Sunday. A little Seminole Hard Rock on the way. 7-1 ATS in the playoffs within the newsletter and an honest 8-0 last week on my own personal bets. Sometimes it just works. Other times it doesn't. My thoughts on Sunday's championship round:
For every reason I can take to play team A, I can find equal reason to play Team B. I've decided to defer to the linemakers. Both numbers sit at 7.5 right now.
The easy underdog would be Green Bay. Name recognition + the State Farm QB who won a Super Bowl, a rabid fan base and a revenge factor. Tennessee is a tougher pill to swallow. The one trick pony from Nashville vs. the Mahomes factor and the high flying Chiefs.
I think both favorites will win and teasing them down makes sense. But I liked Tennessee getting points last week and I won't back off even though I thought they'd be getting closer to 10 than 7. SettleDownSpaz, one of my favorites in the mains likes GB as the dog and it makes sense but then again it doesn't. My whole point is I'm calling the linemakers bluff and playing:
The Titans wouldn't blow a 24 point lead at any point of a game. Of course they don't have the make up to ever have a 24 point lead.
Maybe it's one of those games where the favorite wins, but doesn't cover? We haven't seen any of that yet and it's probably about time. With the Packers game pending, the point spread has not factored into any playoff game of the 7 played so far.
You can bet your boots one of them cover.
Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:
The Titans wouldn't blow a 24 point lead at any point of a game. Of course they don't have the make up to ever have a 24 point lead.
Maybe it's one of those games where the favorite wins, but doesn't cover? We haven't seen any of that yet and it's probably about time. With the Packers game pending, the point spread has not factored into any playoff game of the 7 played so far.
i don't think it should be below 7.5. tannehill has been good but the difference between him and mahomes and the tenn offense vs the kc offense is huge. tenn defense is good but going from @ shrimp to @ kc is really tough. and kc has been playing pretty good defense this season.
I swear i had the Chiefs opening @ 9
Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:
i don't think it should be below 7.5. tannehill has been good but the difference between him and mahomes and the tenn offense vs the kc offense is huge. tenn defense is good but going from @ shrimp to @ kc is really tough. and kc has been playing pretty good defense this season.
great job getty, and everyone else during these playoffs.
looks like KC is back to 7, which is a little tempting to me. the kc team total is at 30.5. the kc team total has been great to us this season but the tenn defense plus henry make me hesitate at that number. also, at 5dimes at least, the kc team total at 30.5 (instead of 30) give us an implied spread of 8 so i don't see any value there. and 30 is not an insignificant number like 29. so, if i play it, and i'm not planning to as of now, i think KC -7 is better than the team total, if you like that side. i don't trust tannehill to keep up with the kc offense so i'm not really thinking about tenn.
as for the other, it's still 7.5 although you might find 7 at -120 somewhere. the team total is at 27, which is a implied spread of 8 but at an implied total of 46 so that one isn't as bad as the kc team total.
on a related note, i have a wedding tomorrow that starts at 4:30. it's perfectly timed so that i can't watch either game. who does that?
anyway, if i play something, i'll post. good luck.
oh yeah, there's football tomorrow.
great job getty, and everyone else during these playoffs.
looks like KC is back to 7, which is a little tempting to me. the kc team total is at 30.5. the kc team total has been great to us this season but the tenn defense plus henry make me hesitate at that number. also, at 5dimes at least, the kc team total at 30.5 (instead of 30) give us an implied spread of 8 so i don't see any value there. and 30 is not an insignificant number like 29. so, if i play it, and i'm not planning to as of now, i think KC -7 is better than the team total, if you like that side. i don't trust tannehill to keep up with the kc offense so i'm not really thinking about tenn.
as for the other, it's still 7.5 although you might find 7 at -120 somewhere. the team total is at 27, which is a implied spread of 8 but at an implied total of 46 so that one isn't as bad as the kc team total.
on a related note, i have a wedding tomorrow that starts at 4:30. it's perfectly timed so that i can't watch either game. who does that?
anyway, if i play something, i'll post. good luck.
I'm heading west to Tampa early tomorrow and won't be back til Sunday. A little Seminole Hard Rock on the way. 7-1 ATS in the playoffs within the newsletter and an honest 8-0 last week on my own personal bets. Sometimes it just works. Other times it doesn't. My thoughts on Sunday's championship round:
For every reason I can take to play team A, I can find equal reason to play Team B. I've decided to defer to the linemakers. Both numbers sit at 7.5 right now.
The easy underdog would be Green Bay. Name recognition + the State Farm QB who won a Super Bowl, a rabid fan base and a revenge factor. Tennessee is a tougher pill to swallow. The one trick pony from Nashville vs. the Mahomes factor and the high flying Chiefs.
I think both favorites will win and teasing them down makes sense. But I liked Tennessee getting points last week and I won't back off even though I thought they'd be getting closer to 10 than 7. SettleDownSpaz, one of my favorites in the mains likes GB as the dog and it makes sense but then again it doesn't. My whole point is I'm calling the linemakers bluff and playing:
SF -7.5
TN +7.5
I hope everybody has a wonderful weekend
I was thinking of the Titans too , but how much gas does Henry still have in the Tank? My Buddies took off to Reno since Friday , I gave them a few stacks and told them to put some on Titans+4 ( 1H ) and Over 24 ( 1 H ). The Publics are all over the favorites and Over today. GL Today Getty
Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:
I'm heading west to Tampa early tomorrow and won't be back til Sunday. A little Seminole Hard Rock on the way. 7-1 ATS in the playoffs within the newsletter and an honest 8-0 last week on my own personal bets. Sometimes it just works. Other times it doesn't. My thoughts on Sunday's championship round:
For every reason I can take to play team A, I can find equal reason to play Team B. I've decided to defer to the linemakers. Both numbers sit at 7.5 right now.
The easy underdog would be Green Bay. Name recognition + the State Farm QB who won a Super Bowl, a rabid fan base and a revenge factor. Tennessee is a tougher pill to swallow. The one trick pony from Nashville vs. the Mahomes factor and the high flying Chiefs.
I think both favorites will win and teasing them down makes sense. But I liked Tennessee getting points last week and I won't back off even though I thought they'd be getting closer to 10 than 7. SettleDownSpaz, one of my favorites in the mains likes GB as the dog and it makes sense but then again it doesn't. My whole point is I'm calling the linemakers bluff and playing:
SF -7.5
TN +7.5
I hope everybody has a wonderful weekend
I was thinking of the Titans too , but how much gas does Henry still have in the Tank? My Buddies took off to Reno since Friday , I gave them a few stacks and told them to put some on Titans+4 ( 1H ) and Over 24 ( 1 H ). The Publics are all over the favorites and Over today. GL Today Getty
great job getty, and everyone else during these playoffs.
looks like KC is back to 7, which is a little tempting to me. the kc team total is at 30.5. the kc team total has been great to us this season but the tenn defense plus henry make me hesitate at that number. also, at 5dimes at least, the kc team total at 30.5 (instead of 30) give us an implied spread of 8 so i don't see any value there. and 30 is not an insignificant number like 29. so, if i play it, and i'm not planning to as of now, i think KC -7 is better than the team total, if you like that side. i don't trust tannehill to keep up with the kc offense so i'm not really thinking about tenn.
as for the other, it's still 7.5 although you might find 7 at -120 somewhere. the team total is at 27, which is a implied spread of 8 but at an implied total of 46 so that one isn't as bad as the kc team total.
on a related note, i have a wedding tomorrow that starts at 4:30. it's perfectly timed so that i can't watch either game. who does that?
anyway, if i play something, i'll post. good luck.
You can always sneak out and watch it on your phone or Tablets.
Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:
oh yeah, there's football tomorrow.
great job getty, and everyone else during these playoffs.
looks like KC is back to 7, which is a little tempting to me. the kc team total is at 30.5. the kc team total has been great to us this season but the tenn defense plus henry make me hesitate at that number. also, at 5dimes at least, the kc team total at 30.5 (instead of 30) give us an implied spread of 8 so i don't see any value there. and 30 is not an insignificant number like 29. so, if i play it, and i'm not planning to as of now, i think KC -7 is better than the team total, if you like that side. i don't trust tannehill to keep up with the kc offense so i'm not really thinking about tenn.
as for the other, it's still 7.5 although you might find 7 at -120 somewhere. the team total is at 27, which is a implied spread of 8 but at an implied total of 46 so that one isn't as bad as the kc team total.
on a related note, i have a wedding tomorrow that starts at 4:30. it's perfectly timed so that i can't watch either game. who does that?
anyway, if i play something, i'll post. good luck.
You can always sneak out and watch it on your phone or Tablets.
I'm heading west to Tampa early tomorrow and won't be back til Sunday. A little Seminole Hard Rock on the way. 7-1 ATS in the playoffs within the newsletter and an honest 8-0 last week on my own personal bets. Sometimes it just works. Other times it doesn't. My thoughts on Sunday's championship round: For every reason I can take to play team A, I can find equal reason to play Team B. I've decided to defer to the linemakers. Both numbers sit at 7.5 right now. The easy underdog would be Green Bay. Name recognition + the State Farm QB who won a Super Bowl, a rabid fan base and a revenge factor. Tennessee is a tougher pill to swallow. The one trick pony from Nashville vs. the Mahomes factor and the high flying Chiefs. I think both favorites will win and teasing them down makes sense. But I liked Tennessee getting points last week and I won't back off even though I thought they'd be getting closer to 10 than 7. SettleDownSpaz, one of my favorites in the mains likes GB as the dog and it makes sense but then again it doesn't. My whole point is I'm calling the linemakers bluff and playing: SF -7.5 TN +7.5 I hope everybody has a wonderful weekend
I was thinking of the Titans too , but how much gas does Henry still have in the Tank? My Buddies took off to Reno since Friday , I gave them a few stacks and told them to put some on Titans+4 ( 1H ) and Over 24 ( 1 H ). The Publics are all over the favorites and Over today. GL Today Getty
Easy over on that half and the Titans not covering was a bad beat. Even still a push is better than the alternative. Well done Brother Cy.
Quote Originally Posted by Cyrax:
Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:
I'm heading west to Tampa early tomorrow and won't be back til Sunday. A little Seminole Hard Rock on the way. 7-1 ATS in the playoffs within the newsletter and an honest 8-0 last week on my own personal bets. Sometimes it just works. Other times it doesn't. My thoughts on Sunday's championship round: For every reason I can take to play team A, I can find equal reason to play Team B. I've decided to defer to the linemakers. Both numbers sit at 7.5 right now. The easy underdog would be Green Bay. Name recognition + the State Farm QB who won a Super Bowl, a rabid fan base and a revenge factor. Tennessee is a tougher pill to swallow. The one trick pony from Nashville vs. the Mahomes factor and the high flying Chiefs. I think both favorites will win and teasing them down makes sense. But I liked Tennessee getting points last week and I won't back off even though I thought they'd be getting closer to 10 than 7. SettleDownSpaz, one of my favorites in the mains likes GB as the dog and it makes sense but then again it doesn't. My whole point is I'm calling the linemakers bluff and playing: SF -7.5 TN +7.5 I hope everybody has a wonderful weekend
I was thinking of the Titans too , but how much gas does Henry still have in the Tank? My Buddies took off to Reno since Friday , I gave them a few stacks and told them to put some on Titans+4 ( 1H ) and Over 24 ( 1 H ). The Publics are all over the favorites and Over today. GL Today Getty
Easy over on that half and the Titans not covering was a bad beat. Even still a push is better than the alternative. Well done Brother Cy.
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