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CD Newsletter Wildcard Round

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Posted: #176

TJ Watt last 3 games played post injury, 0 sacks 0 pressures. Posting his worst pff grades in 2 of the 3.

Buckle down it's jumbo package time in the cold and snow, they will run Derek Henry right at him.

an_horse

 
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Posted: #177

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DEn5tBUyRvQ/?igsh=MWVvazN2MDd5cWtkZQ==

 
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Posted: #178

Mike Tomlin’s eyes are yellower than the snow Cranky Hank pissed on when he went outside in his boxers in the middle of a snowstorm cuz he remembered that he left a Door Dash from Chipotle untouched on the porch just sitting there from an order that he made 3 days ago because being drunk all the time makes you forget things .

Ravens 27-13

wallstreetcappers craps in his draws and pees fuckin backwards from his vaj with a squirt.
 
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Posted: #179

Ohio St. 1H -3½-110  $110/$100 


Just passing along a buddy's strong recommendation. I've only studied prospects, so I'm far removed from capping any CFB on my own this year. peace_5

I have bets on the WC playoffs coming up later today.

 
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Posted: #180

Quote Originally Posted by iConsciousness:

I actually can't find many reasons to bet the Texans, other than they're playing at home. But one thing to consider is the LA fires. A lot of these players have homes and families in LA and you have to wonder if this will affect their psyches a bit. Professional athletes are humans too, and especially if you have families at home, you'd have to be somewhat concern if you live by the fires. (Thank God Justin Herbert lives in Orange County!)Another thing is the Chargers have been practicing in this bad weather, both yesterday and today. Today they wore masks, and I think it was considered a "light" practice. Fortunately they're flying out to Houston today, per one of the Chargers beat writers. (In my opinion, they should've flew out first and then practiced.) Not sure what being outdoors in bad air quality does to a player's lungs, but if you're one to know better than me, this is some info for you.So, as stated, I'm on the Chargers. I just don't know how much yet and I better get to moving before the line moves. (I already have 1 unit at -3.5 and the ML in a couple of fun money parlays.)
I just spent half an hour & a cup of coffee comparing their D's and my take away is that they are remarkably close. I don't need to do so with their offense cause I believe the Bolts are better, but for me & a betting stand point the fires and 3rd game on the road are leading me to the home team catching 3, I'll say this though if Texicans can not get Mixon going it will be an uphill battle. peace_5

 
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Posted: #181

I wont be backing them at -115 though, so back to the drawing board. reallyhappy

 
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Posted: #182

Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1:

Quote Originally Posted by iConsciousness: I actually can't find many reasons to bet the Texans, other than they're playing at home. But one thing to consider is the LA fires. A lot of these players have homes and families in LA and you have to wonder if this will affect their psyches a bit. Professional athletes are humans too, and especially if you have families at home, you'd have to be somewhat concern if you live by the fires. (Thank God Justin Herbert lives in Orange County!)Another thing is the Chargers have been practicing in this bad weather, both yesterday and today. Today they wore masks, and I think it was considered a "light" practice. Fortunately they're flying out to Houston today, per one of the Chargers beat writers. (In my opinion, they should've flew out first and then practiced.) Not sure what being outdoors in bad air quality does to a player's lungs, but if you're one to know better than me, this is some info for you.So, as stated, I'm on the Chargers. I just don't know how much yet and I better get to moving before the line moves. (I already have 1 unit at -3.5 and the ML in a couple of fun money parlays.) I just spent half an hour & a cup of coffee comparing their D's and my take away is that they are remarkably close. I don't need to do so with their offense cause I believe the Bolts are better, but for me & a betting stand point the fires and 3rd game on the road are leading me to the home team catching 3, I'll say this though if Texicans can not get Mixon going it will be an uphill battle.


I don't blame you for having this take. There's a lot of variables that can affect the outcome. For me, I compared the teams last 3 games as I think recency bias is important when capping this game.

Both the Texans and Chargers played 1 quality defense in their last 3 games. The Texans against the Ravens and the Chargers against the Broncos. The Texans scored only 2 against the Ravens, on the road; whereas the Chargers dropped 34 on the Broncos, at home.

In comparing both offenses, nobody has scored more points than the Chargers, where they've averaged 36 points. That's 1 more ppa than the Lions, who are 2nd. (I know quality of opponents matter.) The Texans game against the Ravens really screwed their average points scored in their last 3 games, since they only scored 2 points against the Ravens. So if I replace that game with the most previous game against the Dolphins (where they scored 20 points in a home game), they've averaged 20 points. A 16 point differential. 

The Chargers come out ahead in both Total DVOA and EPA/Play. 

The public is overwhelmingly on the Chargers, so that concerns me. But the numbers are there. It's the Chargers victory (ATS) for the taking.

By the way, Quentin Johnston's stat line in his last game of the year was 14 targets, 13 receptions, 186 yards. He's been up and down all year, posting other big games, but that stat line is encouraging going into the playoffs. The Chargers need another offensive weapon aside from McConkey, so his resurgence is coming at the right time. Throw in Stone Smartt (a mediocre blocker, but excellent receiver) at TE, and the Chargers I think have finally found an offense to compliment their defense.

I'm optimistic the Chargers win handily. The only obstacle the Chargers way is the mental aspect due to what's going on back home in L.A., but Jim Harbaugh seems to really do well with creating a brotherhood, us vs them mentality. 

I have many more reasons why I like the Chargers here, but I'm not trying to convince you. You may very well be right that this is a game to avoid or take the points. But the more I scrape the ice from the windshield, the more I see a handy Chargers victory.

I also like the under, as stated before. peace_5

 
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Posted: #183

@iConsciousness

 I don't think that the Texans defensive ends(who are really good) have faced offensive tackles the caliber of what the Chargers have. I think a lot of what happens in those matchups determines the outcome. 

I'm not gonna bet the game or total at this point, good luck. 

clover

 
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Posted: #184

@undermysac

 Great write ups and intel fellas an_speakpeace_5

 
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Posted: #185

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

@iConsciousness  I don't think that the Texans defensive ends(who are really good) have faced offensive tackles the caliber of what the Chargers have. I think a lot of what happens in those matchups determines the outcome.  I'm not gonna bet the game or total at this point, good luck.

 

I'm going to call it a wash. Hunter and Anderson are one the best DE tandems in the league, and Alt & Slater are one the best OT bookends in the league. Texans are going to have to get pressure up the middle, and they may just do it.

Herbert ranks 7th overall in QBR rating while under pressure (101.7). Stroud ranks 25th at 87. 

The Texans have the 2nd most takeaways in the league,  while Herbert has only thrown 3 interceptions all year; tops among starters. So something's gotta give there.

The Chargers have been playing much better with Dobbins back. Herbert has regained full mobility, and that's another element to his game the Texans are going to have to account for.

The more I respond to you and Biscuit, Sac, the more I like the Chargers side. an_roll_laugh

 
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Posted: #186

YTD:

Sides/Totals: 29-18-3 ($1071)
Parlays/Teasers: 4-3 ($239)
Props: 2-2 ($37.50)
Live Bets: 0-1 (-$57)

Overall: 35-24-3 (+$1290.50)

Here are my official plays for the WC weekend:

Chargers -3 EV ($100/$100)  *BetOnline

Chargers -2.5 -120 ($120/$100) *BetOnline

Chargers 1H ML -135 ($140/$100) *Bovada

Chargers 1H -0.5 -110 ($50/$45.45) *Bovada

I'm wagering a little over 4 units to win close to 3.5.

My thought process is here is that the Chargers should win the 1H, but in the even that they don't, they'll both cover the 2H and the game. So if I lose the 1H, I'll either just let the FG bet ride or, if in watching the game I'm more confident than I am now that they'll cover the 2H, I'll go in on a 2H bet as well. In the past 3 games no team other than the Commanders have scored more 2nd half points than the Chargers. The Texans are bottom 5. I expect some adjustments in the 2H if it needs to be made,

Other plays:

Ravens -9.5 -105  ($105/$100)

Broncos +9.5 -110 ($110/$100)


I'm better when picking favorites, even with high spreads, but I see an opportunity here with the Broncos. For as much praise as Josh Allen gets, his numbers aren't much off from Bo Nix's.  

Player A                             Player B
31 TDs                                31 TDs
 8 INTs                                 6 TDs
3435 Yards                        3342 Yards
68.3 % Completion              62% Completion
103.2 Passer Rating           97.4 Passer Rating

One is in the MVP discussion, the other is a rookie QB with some ups and downs this year. Anyway, both defenses grade out similarly enough where I would focus more on the offense. My only concern is the playoff experience the Bills have over this current Broncos squad. The experience couldn't be any more paramount than at QB, and that's where Allen has the edge.

I'm not a fan of Sean Payton, but this isn't his first rodeo in the playoffs. I like having the 9 points in my back pocket, so give me the Broncos here.


By the way, Player A is Bo Nix, and Josh Allen is Player B. With the Ravens, I think it's simply a matter of them being a better team on both sides of the ball right now. Since their home loss against the Eagles, by 5 points, they've whooped on the Giants, Steelers, Texans, and Browns. There was a thread in the mains about teams peaking at the right time, and I think the Ravens are the first team that come to mind. It's a shame they'll be without Flowers, but they seemed to be able to work around that well enough. They'll need him in the next round, though.

 
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Posted: #187

@iConsciousness

 Not a bad strategy, the Texans are a poor 2H team

 
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Posted: #188

Quote Originally Posted by iConsciousness:

YTD:Sides/Totals: 29-18-3 ($1071)Parlays/Teasers: 4-3 ($239)Props: 2-2 ($37.50)Live Bets: 0-1 (-$57) Overall: 35-24-3 (+$1290.50) Here are my official plays for the WC weekend: Chargers -3 EV ($100/$100)  *BetOnlineChargers -2.5 -120 ($120/$100) *BetOnlineChargers 1H ML -135 ($140/$100) *BovadaChargers 1H -0.5 -110 ($50/$45.45) *Bovada I'm wagering a little over 4 units to win close to 3.5. My thought process is here is that the Chargers should win the 1H, but in the even that they don't, they'll both cover the 2H and the game. So if I lose the 1H, I'll either just let the FG bet ride or, if in watching the game I'm more confident than I am now that they'll cover the 2H, I'll go in on a 2H bet as well. In the past 3 games no team other than the Commanders have scored more 2nd half points than the Chargers. The Texans are bottom 5. I expect some adjustments in the 2H if it needs to be made,Other plays:Ravens -9.5 -105  ($105/$100)Broncos +9.5 -110 ($110/$100)I'm better when picking favorites, even with high spreads, but I see an opportunity here with the Broncos. For as much praise as Josh Allen gets, his numbers aren't much off from Bo Nix's.  Player A                             Player B31 TDs                                31 TDs 8 INTs                                 6 TDs3435 Yards                        3342 Yards68.3 % Completion              62% Completion103.2 Passer Rating           97.4 Passer RatingOne is in the MVP discussion, the other is a rookie QB with some ups and downs this year. Anyway, both defenses grade out similarly enough where I would focus more on the offense. My only concern is the playoff experience the Bills have over this current Broncos squad. The experience couldn't be any more paramount than at QB, and that's where Allen has the edge.I'm not a fan of Sean Payton, but this isn't his first rodeo in the playoffs. I like having the 9 points in my back pocket, so give me the Broncos here.By the way, Player A is Bo Nix, and Josh Allen is Player B. With the Ravens, I think it's simply a matter of them being a better team on both sides of the ball right now. Since their home loss against the Eagles, by 5 points, they've whooped on the Giants, Steelers, Texans, and Browns. There was a thread in the mains about teams peaking at the right time, and I think the Ravens are the first team that come to mind. It's a shame they'll be without Flowers, but they seemed to be able to work around that well enough. They'll need him in the next round, though.
GL Today with the Chargers , I might join you clover peace_5

 
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Posted: #189

@undermysac

 Unless the Bolts do not play up to par they gonna be right there and probably cover and the -3 is cheap, don't be a schmuck my friend. peace_5

 
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Posted: #190

Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1:

The Sac's are trying to steal Todd Monken
..and now the Getties are after him sad

 
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Posted: #191

Quote Originally Posted by spockgato:

Mike Tomlin’s eyes are yellower than the snow Cranky Hank pissed on when he went outside in his boxers in the middle of a snowstorm cuz he remembered that he left a Door Dash from Chipotle untouched on the porch just sitting there from an order that he made 3 days ago because being drunk all the time makes you forget things . Ravens 27-13

an_roll_laugh

"Got 'em right where I want 'em, surrounded from the inside"
 
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Posted: #192

..per Shefty

 

The Cardinals are sending two of the team’s 777 planes to Los Angeles this afternoon, picking up the Rams team, its staff, their families, six dogs and two cats — yes, six dogs and two cats, per an official — and bringing them to Arizona tonight. Cardinals are turning over their training facility for the evacuated Rams to use in advance of their Monday night game vs. the Vikings at State Farm Stadium.

"Got 'em right where I want 'em, surrounded from the inside"
 
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Posted: #193

Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1:

@undermysac  Unless the Bolts do not play up to par they gonna be right there and probably cover and the -3 is cheap, don't be a schmuck my friend.

Don't make me take a road fav in the playoffs! I hate my life enough all ready as it is

peace_5

 
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Posted: #194

an_razz

 
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Posted: #195

Quote Originally Posted by iConsciousness:

Ohio St. 1H -3½-110  $110/$100 Just passing along a buddy's strong recommendation. I've only studied prospects, so I'm far removed from capping any CFB on my own this year. I have bets on the WC playoffs coming up later today.

unreal ending to the first half...an_eek2

 
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Posted: #196

Just getting to the dvoa podcast now.

Aaron Shotz usually recommends favorites, but looking like mostly dogs for the wildcard. His picks:

Chargers -3. He said he'd take the Texans at +3.5

He likes Pitt and the points but thinks Ravens win.

He likes the Broncos +8.5 but Bills should win.

He doesn't like either Packers or Eagles 4.5, no recommendation. Says that his #'s give the Packers more love than other ratings. 

His best bet is Commanders +3.

They didn't talk about the Vikings/Rams, they're doing another pod about that game on Monday. 

 
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Posted: #197

I've been busy. Prolly late to the program.

Just noticed the Skins line is now dropped to a juiced +3

"Got 'em right where I want 'em, surrounded from the inside"
 
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Posted: #198

3-3 +0.98 last week

78-83-9 (+0.59) YTD

Ravens -8.5(-110) *1.10/1.00

Eagles -3.5(-110) *1.00/.91

Broncos 1H +6(-115) *1.00/.87

Vikings 1H ML(-130) *1.00/.77

Packers 1H +3(-115) *.50/.44

peace_5

 
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Posted: #199

Quote Originally Posted by IntenseOperator:

..per Shefty   The Cardinals are sending two of the team’s 777 planes to Los Angeles this afternoon, picking up the Rams team, its staff, their families, six dogs and two cats — yes, six dogs and two cats, per an official — and bringing them to Arizona tonight. Cardinals are turning over their training facility for the evacuated Rams to use in advance of their Monday night game vs. the Vikings at State Farm Stadium.
You cant tell me that this is not a monkey wrench for them, meanwhile Minny is just going on about their routine.

 
 
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Posted: #200

Quote Originally Posted by IntenseOperator:

I've been busy. Prolly late to the program. Just noticed the Skins line is now dropped to a juiced +3

played them in week 1   a long time ago....

Skins D was bad then no better now....

Lattimore was trashed by the Eagles #11 ate him alive...

Skins only chance is a track meet...

Cyrax special Triple Max....an_wink

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