All lines from Betonline, shop around.
Saturday:
Chargers -3(-103) @ Texans O/U 42.5
This line opened 3 and still there. Just some jogging on the juice. The total opened 44, so early bettors are on the under.
First glance, I was surprised that the Texans are getting a full FG at home. The Texans didn't fully rest starters. CJ was 6 for 6, and Mixon got 5 carries vs the hapless Titans who now finished the season 2-15 ats. A dog players worst nightmare. The Titans are the outlier when it comes to playing dogs in general on this entire year.
The Chargers finished 9th in dvoa on the year, the Texans 14th.
We'll let Icon talk about this one. We'll stay up to date on injuries and such.
For me I can't see anything initially that would want me to bet either side.
Steelers @ Ravens -10(-105) O/U 43.5
This line opened 9.5 according to oddshark line history, and showing that it never changed. But as you guys know I got -8.5(at DK) on the Shrimp. I suspect with all the books out there, anywhere from 8.5 to 10 is or was available. The total looked to open 46 and down now to 44/43.5. It's playoff time so no surprise that under bettors are taking a stance.
To me the Steelers look cooked. I don't think that there's any ra ra motivation Tomlin can provide at this point to make it a competitive game. Normally in the past, there's no fuckin way I would lay more than a td vs a divisional opponent in such an important game. Nor vs Tomlin to boot, who's been a gold mine as a dog.
I believe that Tomlin had a chance to go back to Fields a couple games ago, or even last week. That opportunity is gone now.
Russ doesn't have any zip left. A 15 yard out is about the only length he can throw accurately, but even those haven't been crisp. They've thrown a ton of check downs and short stuff over the middle lately. Roquon will eat them alive if they try matriculation all game long. Russ still throws a good "moon ball". He does it when it's a true one on one, and it's literally a 50/50 ball.
George Pickens showed us last game that he's not a fan of cold weather. Playing high-school in Alabama and college for Georgia will do that. I suspect more cold weather in Baltimore this Saturday.
I'll let the resident shrimptons talk about this matchup some more. Let's get some good details if we can.
Last thing I'll say is, don't sleep on the Ravens D, since their bye week they've been lights out. #1 in a lot of areas. Also, last I checked the Ravens are the 4th best team in dvoa history. Dvoa has been good to me personally this year.
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