*EdgeHunter TNF Commanders VS Giants!*

Overall Record Posted (27-17) — 61.36% — +$38.70U (based on all small targets being 1U)

NFL (7-7) — 50.00%

NCAAF (20-10) — 66.67%

Huge Target 5U (12-4) — 75.00% +$38U (not additional profit)

Hello Cover Friends, (I just copy and paste from the college forum, so we all can be on the same page.)  

I've decided I'm going to start tracking my units as well. I know I've mentioned this before, but I want to reiterate it again, so everyone understands how I'm tracking my plays.

Small Targets = 1U

Huge Targets = 5U

I want to see if I can actually turn a profit over the course of a full season, while also giving you guys a better understanding of how I'm betting and managing my plays.

Like I've told you guys before, I'm here for the long run. I'm not trying to prove anything overnight. I want to prove something to myself, and hopefully you guys can follow along and see the progress as I go.

And who knows? Maybe one day I can look at my kids and tell them, "Your dad actually made a career out of watching way too much football." Haha!

All jokes aside, this is something I'm genuinely passionate about. Win or lose, I'm going to keep learning, improving, and holding myself accountable. I want my record and results to speak for themselves. Little more about me, I am only 32... 

This isn't about getting rich overnight. It's about seeing if I can build something for the long run.

Yesterday felt good coming away with another Huge Target win! Also jumped back on Buffalo live and managed to recover some of that first-half action money. Always feels good to start the week on a profitable note!

Alright, todays Action: 

New York Giants -1.5 (Huge Target) 

WHY??

New York is coming off a win against Philadelphia and returns home with some momentum, while Washington continues to struggle with consistency, costly mistakes, and questionable game management.

One of the biggest edges I see is in the trenches. The Giants have been solid defensively up front, and Washington's inability to establish a consistent rushing attack could make things difficult offensively. If New York can control the line of scrimmage and force Washington into predictable passing situations, that's a matchup I like.

These two teams battled to a 27-27 tie in their previous meeting, but Washington hasn't done much since then to earn my confidence. The Commanders have struggled to close out games, and their coaching decisions have only added to those concerns.

I also give New York the edge in recent momentum and home field. Washington has had success in this rivalry before, but I'm more interested in how these teams are performing right now than what happened in previous seasons.

I believe the Giants are playing the better football heading into this matchup. Washington certainly has the talent to compete, but until they clean up the mistakes and show better execution, they're a difficult team for me to trust.

BLUUUEE!!!! THATS MY BOY!!! GIVE ME THE GIANTS BABY!! AND DEFINELTLY MORE BEER FOR THIS GAME! 

@EdgeHunterGuru

 Let's go
 

1st team to 20 wins?

BOL 

Good luck brother!! I will tail you again as I agree NYG is the right side. I really favor the over as last 3 out of 4 games have gone over and for some weird reason I see Washington getting some wild random luck scores. Any reason or thought you have as to why I shouldn’t load up on the over? I’m mindful of my bankroll and aware it’s always a risk. So I would be risking 10% of my bankroll not devastating if it lost but would happily drop wager lower if you think over is not a strong play. Appreciate any thoughts and or insight  Playing mostly my winnings from my Vols knocking off Kentucky last week and the Buffalo win you dropped last night!! 

@EdgeHunterGuru

 The Giants have been solid defensively up front, and Washington's inability to establish a consistent rushing attack could make things difficult offensively. 

I get your point about Washington not being able to establish the run.  
But folks keep saying this about New York and their defensive up front.  But what makes it true. 
For example:

Against the pass:

NYG 30th in pressure% at 32.2

BT+MT% 25th at 14.3%

Sack% 19th at 5.5%

Pass Rush PS/Play 26th at .103

Pass Rush WAR 26th at 0.0

Against the run:

Y/A 27th at 4.7

BT+MT% 14th at 9.8%

Stuff% 21st at 18.5%

PS/Play 13th at .333

Positive play allowed% 5th at 40.8%

Boom% plays allowed 21st at 9.0%

Run Defense WAR 12th at .4

@EdgeHunterGuru

 Thursday night games are weird and you are right the division rivalry is a big deal. 

It is also true that the teams are going in opposite directions.  

BOL 

@Titans1111

Based on my ratings, I have both teams combining for around 45 points. I can definitely see the over hitting, but I'm just not sold on the Commanders. I really don't know what to expect from them offensively, and that's what makes me hesitant. They could put up points, or they could struggle to move the ball all game. I just don't see a strong enough edge on the total to feel comfortable making a wager. IM JUST GONNA SAY IDK.. lol

@Raiders22

That's a fair point, brother! Those numbers definitely make a strong argument, and I can respect that. I may have given the Giants' defensive front a little too much credit. Their pressure rate and yards allowed per carry certainly don't suggest a dominant unit.

I still think there's an edge for New York in this matchup, but maybe it's less about how strong their defensive front is and more about Washington's inability to consistently execute offensively. The Commanders have been their own worst enemy at times.

Good stuff, though! I always welcome someone bringing actual numbers to the discussion. That's how we challenge our own analysis and find out where the real edges are!

Cool brother that’s all I needed was another opinion before I pulled the trigger. I’m going to play the over as it is more of a gut play than anything and wish for the best.. I am either buzzed or channeling some spirit but I see Washington getting 20+ points tonight. We shall see lol Good luck tonight brother and tossing you a virtual beer 

@Titans1111

 Hey sometimes going with your gut is the best calling. Hell, it still 50/50 at the end of the day!! CHEERS MAN!

BOL to you tonight!  

@EdgeHunterGuru

 I still think there's an edge for New York in this matchup, but maybe it's less about how strong their defensive front is and more about Washington's inability to consistently execute offensively. The Commanders have been their own worst enemy at times.

Yessir.  Very true.

NYG defense has gotten better.  Maybe the last 4-5 games stats by themselves might show that.

@Raiders22

 Enjoy the game tonight brother! Cheers! 

@Titans1111

 Been raining for hours there, and they're expecting heavy rain during the game.  

@Igglez

 Daam, hopefully JJ doesnt choke in the rain. 

On my toes. Let’s go JJ!

Tough loss root on Memphis. On to the next.

This is exactly the kind of stuff you have to account for when betting the NFL! A team comes up with TWO interceptions with a chance to close out the game, only to turn around and give Washington the ball back with less than three minutes remaining!

And the moment I saw that ridiculous Jameis Winston 4th-and-1 “Who Let the Dogs Out” snap call, I knew something was BS! It’s almost like they were doing everything possible to give Washington another chance to get back into this game!

Why not just line up, run a normal play, and try to pick up ONE freaking yard? If Washington gets the ball back and drives down the field to score, then so be it! Take the L and move on. But at least make them EARN it!

This is the NFL, fellas. You can do all the homework in the world, find the right matchup advantages, and still have to deal with questionable coaching decisions and ridiculous execution. That’s not an excuse. It’s part of the game, and it’s something you have to factor into your approach over the long run. You won’t eliminate these situations, but you can certainly learn to account for the uncertainty they bring!

BOOO John !! I blame him. 

One thing I learned from tonight’s game is that I might need to pump the brakes on making primetime NFL games Huge Targets. Not saying I’ll never make one again, but I definitely need to be more selective.

No matter how much research you put into a matchup, there are still things you simply can’t account for. That doesn’t mean the analysis was wrong, but it does remind me how important discipline and bankroll management are.

I’m always looking for ways to improve my approach, and sometimes the biggest lessons come from games like tonight. Yeah, I’m pretty upset how it played out.

@EdgeHunterGuru

 Hellooooo @EdgeHunterGuru!  I believe you took the correct side, but sorry for the loss.  I was NOT going to waver from taking the Giants for tonight's game, so I bet a 7pt teaser.  I had GIANTS +5 and OVER 34.5.  Sure the juice was -141, but a win is a WIN...