2011 SUPER BOWL WRITE - UP

   Hey Guys, for those of you who don not like me please don't bash this thread, bump another thread of mine if you must and bash there... Thanks...ALOT of time and effort I'm putting into this...


2 Weeks Ago I made 2 Plays on Green Bay and the Over... This morning I bought off both plays after 2 weeks of debating back and froth and going through the numbers and what my eyes have seen... My heart wants GB to win which is where I initially put my money but I'm smarter than that... I'm making a play on Pittsburgh LARGE @ +3 1/2 (hook) and here is why.... This is a 10 Unit play for me

I believe we have the 2 best Teams represented in the Super Bowl this year... As far as Overall Team Efficiency Pittsburgh ranks Number 2 in total DVOA at 37.3% and Green Bay Ranks Number 3 in Total DVOA at 27.3%... (New England was number 1 at 44.7%)...

As far as defensive efficiency these 2 teams rank Pitt #1 and GB #2... Pittsburgh's total Defensive DVOA is -18.5% which is significantly better than GB's who is at -10.8%... Thats a bif difference as far as %'s go and the reason is because of rush defense... Green Bay Ranks at 16th at -1.8% where as Pittsburgh ranks an astonishing -27.7% which is good for Number ONE in the League...Just o give you an idea of how good that is the NYJ rank 2nd at -19.5%...  Now... This is the Super bowl and what I have learned in years past is that this particular efficiency chart is very important... Green Bay will Not be able to run today.  Not only do they lack the talent at RB, but Pittsburgh is just way to good... Now, I am sure Green Bay is WELL AWARE of this.  So what will they do to try and counter this... Well there are only a few things they can do... Number One is Bubble Screens... Number Two is short screens to RB and pass' to the flats.  Will this be successful?  I believe NO and here is why.... When it comes to covering the flats and short screens and bubble screens you need to have a very good OPEN FIELD defense... Pittsburgh RANKS NUMBER 1 in Open Field defense at 0.17 Yards and they are Number 2 defensively in second level yards at 0.85...  Pittsburgh's Defensive line also ranks #1 in the NFL (Green Bay ranks 20th)  Now Both Pittsburgh and Green Bay have good defenses BUT Pittsburgh's defense is SIGNIFICANTLY better... Pittsburgh also leads the NFL with 48 sacks and an adjusted sack rate of 8.3%... Will Rodgers be able to counter act Pittsburgh's success against the rush? the screen? and pass rush?  I believe the answer is no... Its just too many intangibles that favor Pittsburgh substantially.. PLUS Green Bay's offensive line ranks 23rd in the NFL and 23 in sacks given up... This is a HUGE problem going up against Pittsburgh... ESPECIALLY since the weakness of GB is the Strength of Pittsburgh.

What I believe will take place... Pittsburgh is going to run early and often and take advantage of the weakness of Green Bay which is stopping the run... Green Bay is pretty darn good against the pass so Pittsburgh needs to run the ball ALOT and force GB to drop that extra man... If Pittsburgh can do this, Green Bay is in trouble... I believe they will...  If this game some how turns into a shoot out, Green Bay has the edge...  I don't think Pittsburgh will alow this to happen... I can only hope and pray That Pittsburgh pounds pounds and pounds... This will open up the field significantly and create a huge problem for Green bay...

As far as Team offensive efficiency most would think that Green Bay is better... They are not... Pittsburgh ranks Number 5 and Green Bay #7... Not a big discrepancy, so at best they are even... i don't see anywhere on the field where Green bay is better than Pittsburgh... Even Special Teams ... Pittsburgh 16th and Green Bay is 27th...

Like I said I want green Bay to win which is why I made an average play on GB and the over... I bought off both plays, as they were both made prematurely and with out even looking at the game... So, I am going LARGE on the Steelers... And I'm going to make some real fucking money tonight... The better team is clearly getting points guys... there is no debate here... take the fucking points,  A LOT will have to go wrong for Green Bay to win in my opinion... Its way more probable based on numbers and match-ups that Pittsburgh win SU... Now ask yourself, why are they getting pionts????


Pittsburgh Steelers + 3 1/2 (hook) **********10 Units

BOL Guys  I wish you all GL

 

This game will also go Under, but I'm not playing it

Cheers

I dont know guy. I head green Bays qb some white dude is suppose to be pretty good

And that was when they didnt even have any kind of running game

And I was gonna fuck with ou uriss and give ya shit but I dare didnt risk pissing you off and ending up on one of those hilarious bitcvh trains you make. Those are maybe the funniest things Ive seen on here

  It won't be enough, I promise... unless Pittsburgh tuns the ball over a few times and changes field position in favor of Green bay more than twice i dont see GB pulling out the win... This is unlikely especially since mendenhall has fumbled only TWICE all year and Ben has thrown only 5 picks


Unless Green Bay signed a 26 year old Marcus Allen last night... they will have NO RUNNING GAME

Uriss, fantastic write up and I am on the Steelers ML and the Under, good luck and I was hoping you would be out by today. Sammy.

GL bud... If you can do me a favor and if my initial thread I started in the mains gets bumped, please inform those I am not on the Packers

Same story here. My heart wants Green Bay, my head says Pittsburgh for the win. I'm playing the 1st quarter under 7.5 (1q under has hit 10 of 11 years) and a few small props. Good Luck to you

I was going to do a detailed write-up but need to run out for a bit.

  Yes that is basically what they will do, but with their horrible offensive line against the pass rush and defensive line of Pittsburgh, I dont think that will be successful... Its kind of like how the Patriots try and beat the Jets, but are not very successful... If Green Bay just plays 4 wide all game they will turn the ball over more than once, especially with the rush... Just my opinion

I don't think Ben will be in a shoot out with Rodgers today, I truly dont... With 2 weeks to prepare I have to assume that the coaching staff of the steelers are aware that this will not be good for them... I highly doubt Pittsburgh does anything more than pound the ball, pick up first downs, and stay on the field

In chains again, good luck with your pick

How will Pitt pound the ball without their best O-lineman?

  Yes those are all fair points and accurate... The ONLY weakness on Pittsburgh is their O-Line... but that weakness presents itself with the Packers as well... The reason why I side with Pittsburgh is because Green Bay's weakness on D is stopping the run... And even though Pitts O-Line is mediocre at best, their is not a huge threat with a rush defense like their is a threat when playing the rush defense of the Jets... Green Bay ranks 2oth in the NFL in run blocking and give up over 4 yards p/ rush... GB's STUFFED rank is also 28th (Not good)...   I could be wrong as well, but thats basically the way I'm looking at it ... cheers bro, bol today

I have a feeling you might win with that Hook...

GREAT WRITEUP URISS...I PLAYED THE PACK IN THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR TO WIN IT ALL AT +1200...I AM GONNA HEDGE IT TODAY BECAUSE I HAVE A FEELING THIS ONE COULD GO EITHER WAY...ALSO IF YOU LIKE PROP BETS THIS ONE SHOULD BE AT THE TOP OF EVERYONES LIST: AARON RODGERS TO BE SACKED O 2.5 TIMES...$1K BET FOR ME! GL

SORRY IT IS AT 2 (-170)

  You couldn't even write your silly little shit without mentioning the J-E-T-S. 

  The Jets weren't that good Urpiss!!!

Green Bay's speed will be seen on the carpet this afternoon.  GB loves the domed stadiums.  Throw out the Detroit game and you'll see total domination indoors.  Lots of points, too. 

nice hook  

I'm a Giants fan and hate the Jets... One of these days you might make a contribution to this forum, or at least I hope... "GB loves the domed stadiums"  "Lost of points too"  I wish I was your booky

And FYI starwink aka Tinker bell... Green Bay averages less points, less passing yards, less rushing yards, and less yards per play on turf then they do on grass... Pitts burgh averages more yards in all categories on turf then grass...

"Green bay loves the dome"Do not fuck with me in the NFL I will make a fool of you

You're such an egotistical bastard Urpiss.  Do you really think you're an NFL expert? 

Here's what "real NFL experts" think about this matchup.