HoH's Round 8 AFL

Now that we are after the Dream Game, it is great to be back in the swing of things again.  Didn't think I'd mind a week off of footy, even with the move and the baby, but man, it got rough at times even with all that.  No Internet, no telly, no sport.  Argh.

I needed to refresh the brain and my mind, so here is a Form Chart for Rounds 5, 6, and 7.  Hopefully you can find something useful in here:

1 Port Adel  3 0 0      368 259    142.0849
WC/StK/Essd

2 Adelaide  3 0 0       306 226     135.3982
Frem/Carl/North

3 Hawthorn  3 0 0     390 301     129.5681
Bris/Rich/Coll

4 Geelong  3 0 0        308 238     129.4118
Syd/Frem/Bris

5 W Bulldogs  2 0 1     376 298     126.1745
Rich/WC/Syd

6 Carlton  2 1 0           293 253     115.8103
Melb/Adel/WC

7 St Kilda  2 1 0           294 276     106.5217
Essd/Port/Rich

8 Kangaroos  1 1 1      250 276      90.5797
Coll/Syd/Adel

9 Brisbane  1 2 0         333 320       104.0625
Hawt/Melb/Geel

10 Collingwood  1 2 0  348 347       100.2882
North/Essd/Hawt

11 Melbourne  1 2 0     272 351        77.4929
Carl/Bris/Frem

12 Richmond  0 2 1      331 346        95.6647
WB/Hawt/StK

13 Sydney  0 2 1          230 290        79.3103
Geel/North/WB

14 Fremantle  0 3 0      272 296         91.8919
Adel/Geel/Melb

15 West Coast  0 3 0    252 373         67.5603
Port/WB/Carl

16 Essendon  0 3 0       262 435          60.2299

StK/Coll/Port

Rank / Record / Points For - Points Against / Percentage

Teams Played: Round 5, 6, 7

Carlton v. Brisbane @ TD

This match has been talked about plenty enough, so you know the right side here.  However, let me add my own insight as well.  First, let's look back at the recent history between these two sides:

Carlton hasn't beaten Brisbane since May 2001.  They have lost seven in-a-row to the Lions.  In time order, earliest to latest: 15, 77, 38, 58, 15, 12, 117.  By 12 and 58 at Telstra.

A scary fact is that Carlton is #1 on the AFL in kicks made and marks taken.  Not too good for Brisbane backers, right?  Well, add into that soup the fact that Brisbane is dead-last, that's right, dead-last, #16 in kicks made and marks taken.   Should be a no-brainer to stay off of Brisbane in this situation.  HOWEVER!  Let's look at Inside 50s....Brisbane is #6 and Carlton is #9!!!  WOWOWOW!  How in the world does Brisbane rank ahead of Carlton in I50s with such a disparity in kicks and marks?

Knowing what to do with the ball and not over-relying on one player.  Also, Carlton ranks #14 in Long Kicks, which means a majority of their kicks are short-and-sweet, thus distorting the kicks taken statistic.

Let's add a different angle.

This game reminds me of Round 7 - Port Adelaide v. Essendon, but in inverse.  Port was a "weak" team, yet sneaky because of a tough earlier schedule.  Underrated.  Essendon had a good run of recent form, but would now be losing a handful of their best starters and replacing them with youngbloods.  Overrated.  A perfect spot to back the Power.

Take this round's match.  Brisbane have an average record, but have played solid sides and matched up well against them.........short-handed!  Brisbane returns to near full-strength, a rarity this season.  Under-rated.  Carlton is being pumped up due to their recent form and winning results.  However, they have come against the League's weaker sides, thus inflating Carlton's strength.  Overrated.

Very similar, but in inverse.

Play:  Brisbane -6.5

Let's get this done!

excellent play. :)
Another reason to take it, gman is on it haha

I forgot that reason!  Damn! 

Thanks Miracle.  Best of luck on your plays as well. 

Brisbane -6.5 =

I woke up with slight hangover due to the fact that Newcastle seemingly does not exist in these necks of the woods out here.  Local booze store didn't even have Miller Light for my friends!   Place looked something like outta a horror film, think Vacancy, and the owner was just as scary (and dirty!).  Although he was courteous...........which then made it even more scary.

So the hangover it is offa Michelob Ultra.......but allayed very well by Geelong "ok, seriously, it's getting silly now" late surge to blow the game open and the 1st Quarter barrage by Brisbane which had them never looking back.

Cheers to all who were on Brisbane, esp. tozer as his bravado convinced me to put more on them.

Adelaide v. Melbourne @ AAMI

The final three matches of Round 8 get under way tonight with the Crows taking on the Dees.  We all know the Crows will be too strong for the Demons, but by how much?  I like a few factors in this one and will point them out.

***Current Round - The current round has seen some nice trends due to the week off given by the Dream Game.  It seems that team strengths are being accentuated due to the extra rest.  Teams are amplifying what they can do best and playing out the match in such a fashion.  We've had St. Kilda be St. Kilda again, even with all of the injuries, and actually go up on the Pies by 20 at one point.  Brisbane has gotten back to where they needed to be due to rest and players coming back into the side.  West Coast played one hell of a match against the Roos, a side that should have put the hammer down on the Eagles all night.  Fast forward to the Crows tonight....they do offense best.  Run, run, kick, run, and kick.  I expect this portion of their game to be amplified from the rest.  Not good for a Dees side which doesn't do anything particularly well except evoke a certain level of pity.  I expect that to be amplified as well.

***AAMI  - The last time the Demons won at AAMI, the last ship from Galipoli was just returning from overseas.  The Dees are horrible this season, they do not need to be buggered with terrible venue trends as well.

***Size and Speed - The Crows have been sneaky in the weekly run-up to this match.  They have trained hard in the time off and have a selected a squad which is short and fast in the back and middle, but tall up the front.  This is tough for the Dees to match, especially since they will find themselves too tall in all the wrong places and too short in their backline.....meaning, the Crows will outrun them everywhere on the pitch and then place the ball square in their forwards' hands, which will enjoy the height advantage for the majority of the match.  The squad selection for Adelaide and impending tactics that seemingly come with it smells as a serious tune-up game for a strong run up the middle of the season toward the Finals.  I do not expect the Crows to lolly-gag here and take the Dees lightly.

We all know that Adelaide -20 would be pounded and you would sell your house to get in on that action.  So, the real question is, will the 21-39 be eclipsed?  With the above, additional reasoning, I would have to say, "yes."

Pick:  Adelaide -38.5

hey HOH i believe you live in the united states at least your location says you do, anyways i was reading in another guys thread where you said you were watching aussie rules on your television or computer (i forget which you said) anyways i was wondering since i live in the united states too what channel your watching or if you have a link online i can watch it?

Last four games at AAMI = 73, 72, 54, 58 to Adelaide.  Most recent last.

In two of those games, in the same year, Melbourne defeated Adelaide.  Shows you how poorly the Dees seem to play there.

Hi Dan,

https://www.setantaus.com/en/NA/Our-Schedules/

is the channel you need.  Wouldn't do without it.

Otherwise, go to: www.afl.com.au and click on Gameday Live.  Or google "afl gameday live"

Then, at the top, click on one of the radio links.

Cheers! 

Weather looks manageable in Adelaide at the moment.  Only 20% chance of rain.  Any rain that does fall though will only add to the Dees woes by piling on their handling errors.  I can't see how they would handle the rain when they can't handle the ball properly to begin with.

ah yeah setanta sports isn't  part of the package i have for directv, its like an extra $15 a month just for that channel and not worth it for me

sunny and beautiful for footy

Really tempted to throw in more on the Crows, but will hold back.

Dan, if you like AFL and rugby, that $15 is peanuts.  Save that by not buying the usual crap we all buy throughout a month and be happy.

Sydney currently at -36.5 versus Essendon.  Essendon is dead last in kicks and marks allowed whilst Sydney is #1 at holding off opponents kicks and marks.  Weather looks decent and the Swans should be looking to get off the recent run of average form.  Bombers get some strength back, but not sure if they can stay within the 37 needed.  Sydney should wear them down, but the venue stats aren't kind to the Swans.  The Swans last beat and covered a line like this in June 2003.  Bombers seem the best play here, but can't get on them.  Also can't find enough reasons to faithfully back the Swans minus the head-start so I will cheer on my Red and White without getting a punt involved.

150-74 to the Crows =

Outran the poor Dees to the final siren..........

Thank you ecoute.  Yes, it is very good to see the young ones out there as it allows you to think about the years down the road.  Of course, still love seeing the vets and assorted grayhairs stumblin' and bumblin' up and down the pitch a little more though...hehehe...

Sydney dominated, and I mean dominated, the 1st Quarter, but now look soft and are letting a silly Bombers side back into the match.

The announcer said that the Swans versus the Bombers in the 1st Term looked like Bill Gates versus Uncle Morpheus' Toaster Repair.

HAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!  I love the wit and humor of the Ozzie announcers.....much more refreshing than the all-too-typical politically-correct American hackjob...