HoH's AFL - Round 17

Cats are looking better and better to me.  I think if they go up, they really go up and can cover 18+.

Same with the Dogs....rumor has it that the Bulldogs are right torn about themselves and will want to come out and display some of that frustration come gameday.  Being at their favorite place to play, Telstra Dome, will do the suddenly down-and-out Blues absolutely zero favors.  Carlton might emotionally give in after going down by 20+ possibly leading to a bigger than expected Dogs win.

It's not a trip for me, close by but no I'll be watching on TV

BETTING shops say the early signs point to record action on tonight's Geelong/Hawthorn clash, and the big money is coming for the Cats.

Geelong has been backed from $1.36 to $1.33 with TAB Sportsbet since Monday and the Hawks have eased from $2.90 to $3.10.

"All the money is still for the Cats," TAB's Gary Davies said yesterday. "More than 80 per cent of what we're holding on the match so far is on the Cats.

"That's a big discrepancy on a top-of-the-table match. This is going to be a huge betting match.

"The biggest of the season easily. Surely the Hawks punters will have to step in at some stage and there is loads of interest in the line betting as well."

TAB Sportsbet's line betting is 17.5 points - punters can get $1.90 for the Cats to win by 18 points or more. Alternatively, the Hawks are $1.90 to win or lose by 17 points or less.

Darwin Sportsbet's Phil Hannah said early interest in tonight's game from large punters was enormous.

"The betting shop books will be bulging on this one," he said.

"We've already taken a stack of money on Geelong at $1.45, including bets of $40,000 and $30,000, and have cut the odds to $1.43.

All of that without our biggest Cats punter - who averages at least a $100,000 bet each week on them - joining in yet."

Hannah, Lasseters Sports' Gerard Daffy and Sportingbet Australia's Stephen Fletcher were all keen to take a stand against the Cats.

"We're going to make them a big loser. We think the Hawks can beat them through the midfield," Hannah said.

Fletcher said: "The Cats still don't have (Cameron) Ling and (Gary) Ablett, and don't have the luxury of Skilled Stadium this week. We're more than happy to take them on big-time."

Lasseters Sports is the only shop to report any money for the Hawks.

"We had a $4000 bet at $3.10 to win and another $6000 at the line of +18.5 points," Daffy said.

Flemington Sportsbet's Norm Short warned punters not to assess tonight's match on last week's results alone.

"Punters . . . have been, over-reactive to what happened last week. The odds should be closer together."

TAB Sportsbet will take the unusual step of betting "live in the run" on tonight's match.

BET OF THE WEEK
PLENTY of short-priced favourites. Best option is the $2.11 treble on Collingwood, Bulldogs and Kangaroos with Darwin Sportsbet.

THE KNOCK
BETSTAR'S Ian Loughlin is tipping the Hawks. "The $1.40 Geelong is way too short. We're going to take them on and on and on."

VALUE BET
FLEMINGTON Sportsbet's Norm Short says Port is vulnerable at $1.47. "Take the $2.70 Fremantle to cause an upset," he said.

Am loving Collingwood now and will jump on the -23 this round.

Hopefully the rain in Melbourne stays away till the evening.

Without sounding like a broken record...tonights game f*cking sinks to high heaven that Channel 7 isn't going to play the game live!!!  The AFL must be able to step in and stop this shit from happening, as in Adelaide we are still playing our Sunday games on 1 1/2 hour delays

OK, in for a medium amount on Geelong at -18.5.

I think there is value in this if either or both Hodge or Mitchell are called Off.

If not, then the Cats could still cover.

90 seconds after I place my wager in at 18.5, my local moves to -19.



Hahahaha.....now the Cats have to their job.  

OK guys, going to bed.  Lots of shit to do this week, so might not be able to keep up as much as usual.

Go the Cats and with this latest line change, I feel as confident as ever.  Added to that the fact that a lot of fine blokes on this forum are also on the Cats pushed me over onto the spread and off the ML.

Let's get this shit done!   

It is live in Melbourne but you think that it should be live in SA and WA because of the AFL dominant status. I blame pay TV for this absurdity. If Foxtel did not exist it would have been live in those states. Good luck trying to promote a second Sydney team there is no AFL TV coverage in an area where migrants make up 50% of the population

Are you sure it is live in Melb as I just checked their TV guide and it said 8.30pm start, which obviously isn't live...

And do you know what is very funny, I was in sunny Darwin last weekend...and 'ALL' games that were on free-to-air were live!!!!!!!!   I simply couldn't believe it, but was very happy with the situation, but I have to mention that my hats usually goes off to Channel 10 as they are quality with the AFL coverage...but Channel 7 is a totally different story.  Why did they want the rights back in the first place if they didn't think it would be a ratings winner, and hence then play the good games live, and for the buns that like to sit on the couch on Sundays and watch a game of footy with a beer or two

I did hear that they were expecting an MCG sellout and that the game would be televised but obviously not. Miracle in Sydney channel 7 delayed the Carlton v Swans game 2 hours for fucking motor racing. Switch over to channel 10, bike racing. Jesus !!!!!!

58-41 Cats at the Half.

Well now we know why that line changed so much. Big money by the some smart punters.

Multiple Australian book linemen mentioned before the game that 'we don't mind taking in all the Geelong money.  We think Hawthorn is the smart play.'  The books we about to get bathed if the Cats covered.

Now I know why the books were so confident....

Could have gone either way, but it didn't...DOH!

$20,000 @ $1.83 ON RICHMOND V BRISBANE
$12,000 @ $2.52 ON GEE/STK/SYD/KANG MULTI
$12,000 @ $1.82 ON COLLINGWOOD -22.5 V ESSENDON
$11,000 @ $1.90 ON FREMANTLE +15.5 V PORT ADELAIDE
$10,000 @ $2.75 ON FREMANTLE V PORT ADELAIDE
$10,000 @ $3.10 ON HAWTHORN V GEELONG
$10,000 @ $1.33 ON GEELONG V HAWTHORN
$8,000 @ $2.15 ON HAWTHORN +17.5 V GEELONG
$7,000 @ $1.38 ON GEELONG V HAWTHORN
$5,000 @ $1.33 ON GEELONG V HAWTHORN
$5,000 @ $1.90 ON FREMANTLE +15.5 V PORT ADELAIDE
$5,000 @ $1.82 ON FREMANTLE +15.5 V PORT ADELAIDE
$5,000 @ $1.28 ON COLLINGWOOD V ESSENDON

$10,000 @ $3.57 ON GEELONG/MELB AFL/NRL PREM DBLE

There it is.

Hahaha....so close yet so far away...

So I wake up from a nap and see Collingwood down 52-43 at the Half.

GRRRRRRRR.....

Hopefully they keep their 2nd Quarter surge up and pull away here...

Oh, I just saw that Collingwood started the match down 27-0.

Nice.

Just wonderful.

Don't worry. It will be close. I took Pies -10.5 at the half. I think they should sort it out now.

Lucas looks like he is carrying an injury.

Well, let's hope you're right.  The 2nd Quarter was much better and hopefully that trend continues...

OK, back to watch the game.