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AFL Round 6 - Discussion

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by tozer:

If I do bet this game it will be relatively small but I think Essendon plus the points looks tempting. Reasons to take Essendon...

I often think a lot of Collingwood lines are slightly inflated, why? I think maybe because of their huge following and interest in their matches tends to push the line a couple of points in favour of the opposition. Maybe I'm reading too much into it?

Correct tozer.  If, and I mean 'if' the Bombers can get away to a good start (like they did last year in this game), they could be hard to peg back and then the 16.5 points look like very good value.

 
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Posted: #27
What's with the Rich move of 5 points!! 
 
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Posted: #28

Don't buy Collingwood going in 'struggling'. Remember Collingwood coming into last year's game off a four-day break? They played Port Adelaide on the Saturday, fading out in the fourth quarter in heavy, wet conditions. They then went on to win by 16 as around a 16-17 point underdog.

Collingwood are not playing good footy at the moment but they are a team who can go from poor to exceptional very quickly. I'm loathe to play Essendon that reason. I think Essendon also need to be taken carefully from here on in. They do have a very young list and have very light bodies, and there is going to be a point in their season where their conditioning will fall away and they'll find the going very tough. 

 
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Posted: #29
Valid points on Essendon more than likely to drop off as the season wears on mercurial. 
 
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Posted: #30
TABSportsbet posted its line at 17.5. Very large considering Collingwood are 1.55 ML at some places. Very odd consdering that Port Adelaide were -14.5 v Brisbane last weekend and were around 1.45 ML.
 
I'm thinking Collingwood ML parlayed with something else. Maybe Geelong ML on the Friday night.
 
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Posted: #31

Quote Originally Posted by tozer:


Line changes...
Essendon -15.5 (moved 1 point)
Richmond -26.5 (moved 5 points!!!)

I think I can understand both of those.

Essendon should be favoured to cover. if I remember they have had the better of the Pies in these matches of late. The small drop may have had to do with the tribunal result.

Tigers due to people waiting for a Hawks letdown from travel and also the close game at the Gabba. Not heard of any new injuries from the Hawk camp.

 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by mercurial:

TABSportsbet posted its line at 17.5. Very large considering Collingwood are 1.55 ML at some places. Very odd consdering that Port Adelaide were -14.5 v Brisbane last weekend and were around 1.45 ML.

Mercurial - Port did not play Brisbane last weekend. The line in the Brisvegas game was 6.5 - 8 (depending on book).

The Port game started as pick 'em and moved to 6 - 6.5 throughout the week/weekend.

 
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Posted: #33
Ok everyone, as promised, here are the lines from Sportingbet as of Wed 2.30pm est (approx):
 
Ess Vs Coll (-15.5)
Freo Vs Geel (-31.5)
Carl Vs Adel (-7.5)
Bulldogs (-25.5) Vs Eagles
Port (-9.5) Vs Saints
Bris (-43.5) Vs Melb 
Kangaroos Vs Syd  (Pk)
Haw (-26.5) Vs Rich
 
And thanks to tozer above for posting lines when they became avaliable.  I did promise to post lines on Wed though, thus the reason for posting the above.
 
Still really liking Bris from the above, just don't see how Melb will get within 10 goals as a bear minimum.
 
And here's to the Spurs 2nd half come back
 
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Posted: #34
Be careful with the Swans game people. There is some talk on the fan forums that Davis is about to be dumped. Not only does this mean someone like Craig Bird could play forward (2nd game) but Roos could also rotate LRT or put Spider down there (if he plays) who is limited and not match fit.
 
Freo also have internal issues. Or at least that is the 'gossip'. Some players are unhappy with the coach and other players over their performances. Some injury concerns as well.
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by ecoute:

Be careful with the Swans game people. There is some talk on the fan forums that Davis is about to be dumped. Not only does this mean someone like Craig Bird could play forward (2nd game) but Roos could also rotate LRT or put Spider down there (if he plays) who is limited and not match fit.
 
Freo also have internal issues. Or at least that is the 'gossip'. Some players are unhappy with the coach and other players over their performances. Some injury concerns as well.

Have to fade the Dockers right now.  That ship is in bad shape at the moment.

 
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Posted: #36

I don't want to bet against my own but Sydney seems to be heading that way too. Frankly Goodes has not been playing bad this season and the everyone should get of his back. Paul Roos has to get over this personal thing with Nick Davis and Barry hall should just fuck up and die. What a baby, the media should stop making excuses for him and worst of all he is being paid $600k a year

https://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,23588139-5007132,00.html

I hate Libba but this is just slack https://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23590714-2,00.html

ps. Spider will not be in the team. He confirmed that this morning.

 
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Posted: #37
We'll flog Melbourne. We always have and we always will. This is the game where Brown can get some form back. But if he doesn't, Bradshaw has kicked like 8 and 9 goals the last 2 games he's played.
 
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Posted: #38
ecoute, if there ever was a round to fade the Swans, this would be a good one.  Not saying to do it, or it's a play, but definitely a consideration with the current state of what is happening at Sydney and the rising star of the Roos.

So far, I don't like anything about that match...
 
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Posted: #39

Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

We'll flog Melbourne. We always have and we always will. This is the game where Brown can get some form back. But if he doesn't, Bradshaw has kicked like 8 and 9 goals the last 2 games he's played.

Brown had a very quiet game and given that he is going to try for the biggest per year $$$$$$ contract in AFL history he will come out firing.

 
 
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Posted: #40
a couple of weeks with plenty of gifts..this week theres none so playing it safe n waiting till half time in all of them
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