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AFL Round 6 - Discussion

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Posted: #1
Hi guys, same as last week.  Odds as per Sportingbet, but lines are my guesses, make adjustments where you think necessary.
 
Coll ($1.53) Vs Ess ($2.47)               Line 18
Freo ($4.60) Vs Geel ($1.19)            Line 35
Carl ($2.12) Vs Adel ($1.76)             Line 5
West Bull ($1.25) Vs Eagles ($3.90)  Line 28
Port ($1.67) Vs St Kilda ($2.18)        Line 9
Bris ($1.10) Vs Melb ($6.75)             Line 43
Nth Melb ($2.00) Vs Syd ($1.80)      Line 2
Haw ($1.22) Vs Rich ($4.20)             Line 30
 
Games l like most are Adel & Haw and possibly Bris.  More explaination later in the week.
 
Let's put our heads together and see what we can come up with 
 
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Posted: #2
Nothing really jumps out at me straight away.
 
Adelaide have only covered one line by my records and in the past three weeks are back to only scoring around 10 goals. I am a bit wary of them at the moment.
 
An idea I had is that I don't think a team like Brisbane that has had a tough match every round will be that keen to run themselves into the ground to beat Melbourne by 10 goals. Alot of teams have switched off in the second half against lesser opponents. Carlton lead Melbourne by about 10 goals then switched and were lucky to cover the 20 points in the end. Similarly Adelaide dominated Fremantle in 1st half and switched off.
 
If Richmond play with the intensity they have in the last two weeks I am not sure Hawthorn would beat them by more than 5 goals.
 
That said Brisbane may beat Melbourne by 10 goals at half pace.
 
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Posted: #3
I think Brisbane are the perfect team to exploit the Dees, to the full extent, a forward line where all six players can score multiple goals and a midfield head and shoulders above the Dees. 43 points sounds scary but (and bare in mind I haven't researched it yet) I think I would feel very comfortable laying big money on the lions.
 
Sydney looks alright, maybe Adelaide
 
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Posted: #4
In fact definately Adelaide, the Blues certainly have their problems, IMO serious problems with their skill error, especially a couple of players in defence. I'm surprised they are only asking 5 points
 
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Posted: #5
Also a bit surprised Essendon is getting that much of a head start
 
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Posted: #6
The ANZAC Day match line will be much closer to 10 imo...probably -12.5. Interesting to see that the Kangaroos have firmed from evens into 1.90. I thought they probably would have been value as a live doggie.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by tozer:

Also a bit surprised Essendon is getting that much of a head start

Sorry guys...as stated though at the top of the thread my lines are only guesses until Wed when the true lines come out, and then I'll post them

 
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Posted: #8
When the lines come out make sure you check out Essendon's ANZAC day record vs Collingwood.
 
 
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Posted: #9
Geelong to win 1st Quarter: 1.35

Geelong 1234: 1.65

These two look solid already.

I really like Geelong this round.  I estimated the line at around -41 on Monday morning.  Don't know if it will be this or will get pushed near this.  Anything under 40 is really nice.

Haven't wrapped my head around anything else yet.  Been very busy. 


 
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Posted: #10
Swannies have a lot of knocks going into Round Six.  Expect the public to shorten up the Roos even more...
 
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Posted: #11
Early lines at Lasseters... (to the away team)
 
Coll ($1.53) Vs Ess ($2.47)               Line 16.5
Freo ($4.60) Vs Geel ($1.19)            Line -29.5
Carl ($2.12) Vs Adel ($1.76)             Line -6.5
West Bull ($1.25) Vs Eagles ($3.90)  Line 25.5
Port ($1.67) Vs St Kilda ($2.18)        Line 9.5
Bris ($1.10) Vs Melb ($6.75)             Line 44.5
Nth Melb ($2.00) Vs Syd ($1.80)      Pick em
Haw ($1.22) Vs Rich ($4.20)             Line 31.5
 
Geez Miracle, you worked your early lines out well they were very close
 
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Posted: #12
Last weeks Syd/Geelong match was 25.5
This week Freo is only 4 points more 29.5
Obviously the cats don't have HGA but Freo are hardly travelling as well or comparable to the swans
 
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Posted: #13
Thanks tozer, usually the closer ML games like Carl Vs Adel & Kang Vs Syd are the easier ones to get right, but the lines between 15 to 40 are alot harder to guess.
 
Really really like the Adelaide game, and maybe the Bris game but the 44.5 is getting that much higher and harder to like...
 
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Posted: #14
Freo ($4.60) Vs Geel ($1.19)            Line -29.5



Are you kidding me?  Have to check the reports, injuries, etc., but that line is silly.  Too good to be true?  Fremantle, besides the Dees and out of whack Eagles, are the worst team in the comp right now.  Geelong could have that covered rather quickly methinks.  Wow......definitely something to think on....and check up on.  I liked this match-up before last round was finished and now I am liking it even more.
 
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Posted: #15
Geelong did me a favour playing Melbourne and kept the line for the Dees lowish for an extra couple of weeks. After watching the Dees game on the weekend it was a sorry sight. They have 5 good players (Bruce, Green, Robertson, McLean, Carroll) the rest can't follow a game plan or execute from hand or foot to save themselves.
 
The thing with the cats is they have the ability to beat any side by 10+ goals but didn't do this against the Dees because they only turn it on when they need to. With sides like the hawks, lions, swans who play hard, intense footy for the whole game I feel comfortable laying big points. The Dees have too many weaknesses for me to start mentioning. Carlton's midfield in the second quarter (last week) made the Dees midfield look like a high school team. Thats what it'll look like versus the lions but all over the ground.
 
Sides (like the lions) who at the end of the regular season are likely to be on the cusp of getting into the finals depending on their percentage need to and should punish the Dees by 100+ points.
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by tozer:

 
Sides (like the lions) who at the end of the regular season are likely to be on the cusp of getting into the finals depending on their percentage need to and should punish the Dees by 100+ points.

Very well said tozer, was thinking the same. 

And now with Neitz out (and I know he hasn't been playing well) the side lacks even more leadership, and eventually Bailey will give up on the season and play the kids.  After all he knows (hopefully) that his job is safe, as it would be very harsh to sack a first year coach, but you never know... 

 
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Posted: #17
Well, I was just going to highlight that last paragraph by tozer and Miracle, you beat me to it. 

Excellent insight and definitely something to think about.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Miracle1976:

And now with Neitz out (and I know he hasn't been playing well) the side lacks even more leadership, and eventually Bailey will give up on the season and play the kids.  After all he knows (hopefully) that his job is safe, as it would be very harsh to sack a first year coach, but you never know... 


I feel a bit sorry for him and the Dees. I followed Fitzroy all my life and when a team gets that low, not just on the field but financially its hard to see them ever getting out of it. They actually played better footy without Neitz I thought but yeah they'll miss the leadership.

Carlton and Richmond have been the worst teams in the comp in recent years but with their supporters and money you know they'll always get back to being successful (eventually).

With the AFL desperate for a Gold Coast team just puts more pressure on the poorest team.

 
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Posted: #19

One other thing, its great to see everybody getting some profits. Great forum!!!

 
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Posted: #20

Last things (for now) about the Brisbane game...

Neitz, Whelan out for Melb
Brisbane (without Dummond) but otherwise should be at full strength (Lappin should be back)

I think you can only get so much from previous meeetings but last time they played it took Melb to the last minute of the first quarter to score, by that time Brisane was 41. Melb is a worse team than that meeting, Brisbane is a better team than that meeting.

 
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Posted: #21
[Quote: Originally Posted by tozer]

Neitz, Whelan out for Melb
Brisbane (without Dummond) but otherwise should be at full strength (Lappin should be back)

Read comments from Leigh Mathews about Travis Johnston on his Bris games to date from the AFL website, to which he also mentioned that Lappin is in need of a 'few weeks' break from his tight achilles.

Link is below

https://www.afl.com.au/News/NewsArticle/tabid/208/Default.aspx?newsId=58280

 
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Posted: #22
And adding to all the factors above about the Bris Vs Melb game the scary part for Bris is that they play Geel at Skilled Stadium the following week, thus % and a win is vital for this side as they are possibly penciling in the Geel game as a loss....
 
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Posted: #23
The Lions did pretty well without Lappin against the Happy Hawks. Travis Johnstone seems to be getting better each game. Lappin is very important for the Lions and racks up posession but I don't think the Lions will be impacted as much as we think.
 
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Posted: #24

If I do bet this game it will be relatively small but I think Essendon plus the points looks tempting. Reasons to take Essendon...

I often think a lot of Collingwood lines are slightly inflated, why? I think maybe because of their huge following and interest in their matches tends to push the line a couple of points in favour of the opposition. Maybe I'm reading too much into it?

 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by tozer:

Early lines at Lasseters... (to the away team)
 
Coll ($1.53) Vs Ess ($2.47)               Line 16.5
Freo ($4.60) Vs Geel ($1.19)            Line -29.5
Carl ($2.12) Vs Adel ($1.76)             Line -6.5
West Bull ($1.25) Vs Eagles ($3.90)  Line 25.5
Port ($1.67) Vs St Kilda ($2.18)        Line 9.5
Bris ($1.10) Vs Melb ($6.75)             Line 44.5
Nth Melb ($2.00) Vs Syd ($1.80)      Pick em
Haw ($1.22) Vs Rich ($4.20)             Line 31.5
 
Geez Miracle, you worked your early lines out well they were very close

Line changes...
Essendon -15.5 (moved 1 point)
Richmond -26.5 (moved 5 points!!!)
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