AFL Rd 20

Some good games on tap, with the Cats/Hawks headlining, the Derby and potentially a decent match with Bombers/Crows.

Games I love:

Swans to bounce back, at home, when they clearly gave up 2H last week.  1Q and 1H lines, and likely full game line here.  Buddy will be back, Longmire might not be as dense personnel wise (as he was with Tippett this past week).  

Bombers 1Q-L and 1H-L.  Adelaide coming down off big emotional win; haven't covered away since Rd 9 (not counting Port), slow start to games.

Doggies lines (1Q, 3Q, 4Q, 1H).  I reckon 3 of these hit.  They won't take the foot off the pedal.  Just a far superior team, without the confidence/arrogance of the Roos.  Dees have to take a step back; I thought it would be last week, so now it's this.

Plays I really like:

Roos 1Q/1H and game lines.  Saints are toast with injuries, and 2 of these three plays will hit for sure.  Anyone have insights on Blundstone, and how Roos play it?

Curious about:

Lions v. Blues.  Initially I leaned Lions at home.  Especially 1Q H2H.  Think I'll likely play this.  Thereafter, it's anyone's match, and I wouldn't bet against Blues.

Power v. Giants.  Also a 1Q play, at home, on a rebound against a team that plays well enough away, just not to start off.  I wouldn't and won't lay 2+ goals with Port... at least not at the moment.  They could against this Giants team who have such difficulty scoring.

Note: the Friday betting ban had a short run of 3 days.  Will listen to your thoughts on the Swans angle before I bet.  My record is awful on Friday nights, but this just feels solid (again, lol).

BOL gents, more later in the week.

On to today's plays.

Essendon v. Adelaide.  Still have the same feeling I did about this on Monday: Bombers put up enough resistance early, as they have done recently.  Probably not enough to risk money on the full game line as I did last week and they faded away (though my 1Q line won).  Adelaide coming down emotionally off a big win, traveling, not the biggest ground. 

Plays: Bombers 1Q Line +6.5.  1Q U 45.5

NM v. STK @ Hobart

Roos are flat out rolling (with some pregnant pauses for some of us, like last week).  Staying with my initial feel on this one as well.  Far more talent, and talent that is clicking on all cylinders for the most part (when it matters).  They are 3-0 ATS, so on the one hand there isn't much value on the line; though the depleted and exhausted Saints might have already expended its last gasp.  I might put a little on the line.  But the 1Q has been excellent for the Roos: last 3 rounds, against teams like the Saints, avg margin has been -29 (note: the 3 before that it was +2.3).  Moreover, with the pregnant pause last week in 2Q and especially 3Q, they'll have more consistent focus.  The 3 rounds leading into last match, they won 3Q by an average -19.  I lost my bet last week when they lost it by +8.  So I'm going with that one again this week.

Plays: 1Q-L Roos -7.5 (locked last night), 3Q-L -8.5

Port v. GWS

Don't have a read on this one at all.  Port bringing back 5 stars, when the season is finished in terms of finals.  So, you'd think they at least roll early.  But, these guys haven't played for awhile, so will rust be a factor?  GWS is young, one of the more athletic teams in the league, and has won 1Q ATS more than lost last 6 rounds, on the road too. 

Pass

Bris v. Carl

Won't be watching this one for obvious reasons, but will be playing a little.  I think either team can win this one, and frankly like Blues as a team (performance wise) than the Lions.  But with the Lions at home, coming off a close loss but with good effort, and the very vocal rebuttal of playing to win (vs. losing to get the pick), I think they come out of the gate a little bit stronger than Blues.  The teams have very similar defensive profiles last 6 games in terms of PA (points against), across the quarters.  But the Lions have scored 5 more in the 1Q on average: 15 vs, 10.  Neither team has an offense to speak of (yes, the Lions scored 100 last week, and Carlton scored 87), with avg Goal accuracy of 37% and 41% over past 6 games.  The total is inflated from last week, and both teams revert (at least somewhat to a score more reflective of their positions on the ladder).

Plays: Bris 1Q Line -1.5, Under 169.5

Cats v. Hawks

I wouldn't do the writeup justice, but will direct you to AFL.com.au to see Giulio's view from the Cats' side.  He knows the Cats and Roos very well, and is the only writer who gets the ATS call correct more than 50% of time (also one of the factors for me not playing Roos line this week, though I do think they clear it).

I'm just going to sit down with some mates, beers and pizza and hopefully watch one of the best matches of the season.

Live play angle I'll be looking for: Hawks with points or laying less than4 at 1.85 or better.  :)

Have fun guys!

Erich