Posted:
#51
Under 211.5 at the Gabba, 3QT
AFL Rd 20
Posted:
#56
Sunday's matches should be pretty good.
Richmond v. GC
Richmond will no doubt come guns a blazin, and should win handily (due in no small part to Delidio's return). Beaten by Crows last week, widely criticized for weeks now about its inability (excepting Hawks match) to play hard for all four quarters. The Suns have a found a bit of their own mojo, playing competitively, except for the Crows' defeat by 45 odd points away. Their recent away performance does worry me a little for these plays, but the bottom line for me is Richmond should never be laying this many points, period. Not only can not be "trusted" to play full press the whole game, their offense is sputtering, barely kicking more than 6 goals over the past 5 or 6 weeks (took that stat from a write-up).
Plays: Suns +17.5 1H-L, +10.5 4Q-L, +37.5 L
Live plays I'll look for: Suns >65, Tiges < 7
WB v. Melb
Along with many others, love the Doggies' form of late, and how well they play as a team. I think I just read that they have zero players in the top 50 player ratings. They've blown out competition the past few weeks, so there isn't a lot of "value" in the line from that perspective. But I have to continue playing them until they don't cover (actually, will probably continue anyway). The Dees have gained confidence, noticeably. Goal accuracy past two weeks' has been much better. And they fight, led by the rising star Ben Hogan. I see them keeping this "respectable", losing by ~40, in a ~200 point match. I'm pounding the Over with these two teams' form, and at Ethihad (who my pal PK brilliantly shared yesterday should only be played as an Over).
Plays: Doggies -13.5 1H-L, -28.5 L, Over 174.5
Live plays I'll look for: Doggies - single digits or ML if things get weird early.
Freo vs. WCE
I don't know what to make of this game, with the Eagles' injuries, returning Freo star Fyfe and Freo's inconsistent (yet mostly poor) offense. Line has jumped from 4.5 to 9.5 and now back to 5.5. On paper, seems like Freo should win by a goa with a high degree of certainty. Feels like a "Here kitty, kitty" play (too good to be true; bookies/sharps know something I don't), so I won't play anything unless I hear/learn something different here.
Good luck fellas.
Erich
Posted:
#57
Nice writeup, I still think too many people are giving Suns credit here. They dont want to win many more games for draft purposes. If Tigers kick the first 2-3 quickly, Suns won't have it in them to fight.
That Melb-Dogs Total is a coinflip, I can't pick it. I think you are definately on the right side, but I'm worried Melbourne will score like 60 points.
I like Freo today, do you know if Pavlich is playing?
That Melb-Dogs Total is a coinflip, I can't pick it. I think you are definately on the right side, but I'm worried Melbourne will score like 60 points.
I like Freo today, do you know if Pavlich is playing?
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