2011 Tour

2011 TOUR:  +47.65 units

Stage 1:  2-2 +0.00 units
Stage 2:  4-3 +1.15 units
Stage 3:  1-1 -0.40 units

Stage 4:  2-1 +15.60 units

Stage 5:  2-0 +7.00 units

Stage 6:  2-4 -3.00 units

Stage 7:  1-0 +3.00 units
Stage 8:  4-2 +7.35 units
Stage 9:  3-2 +9.90 units

Stage 10: 3-3 +3.20 units

Stage 11: 4-5 +2.65 units 

Stage 12: 5-4 +6.20 units

Stage 13: 3-6 -5.00 units

Yeah, I got real lucky there -- that would have turned a small loss into a big one...

5-4, -3.83u

I'll  likely play:

Basso over Evans @ +120 2*
Even though I expect Evans to be up there, I realy liked what I saw from Basso on stage 12 as he looked strong and in good form. IMO he got a decent shot at the podium in this one...

S. Sanchez over Evans @ -118 2*
I got wrong big time on Sammy yesterday, but that means he's saving energy for this one.
It looks like Sammy is in his greatest TdF form ever and even though I don't expect Evans to be far behind, imo Sanchez is a better climer than him and the decents might come into play yet again...

I also like Frank to do well in this one as he looked strong on stage 12, but not enough to match up with neither Sammy, Contador or Andy as it's to close a call imo, especialy when having to lay juice on them...

Stage 14:

Basso over Evans (+105) 2u

Sanchez over Contador (+140) 2u

Frank over Andy (+125) 2u

Levi over Danielson (+115) 2u

Dupont over Rolland (+160) 1u

CA Sorensen over Szmyd (-135) 2u

De Gregorio over Tiralongo (-145) 2u

glad i went small there...tough to call with everyone being so equal.

Stage 14: 3-4 -0.20 units

2011 TOUR:  +47.45 units

Stage 1:  2-2 +0.00 units
Stage 2:  4-3 +1.15 units
Stage 3:  1-1 -0.40 units

Stage 4:  2-1 +15.60 units

Stage 5:  2-0 +7.00 units

Stage 6:  2-4 -3.00 units

Stage 7:  1-0 +3.00 units
Stage 8:  4-2 +7.35 units
Stage 9:  3-2 +9.90 units

Stage 10: 3-3 +3.20 units

Stage 11: 4-5 +2.65 units 

Stage 12: 5-4 +6.20 units

Stage 13: 3-6 -5.00 units
Stage 14: 3-4 -0.20 units

I had:

If Andy is going to win, which stage does he make his move in?

IMO the most likely one is stage 18, but also stage 19 is a good one for that..
I don't think it will happend in neither stage 16 or 17 cause of the decent at the end, thats two stages where I expect Sammy to be realy offensive and win some time on the decent again (like when he won where he gained 40 sec's on the decent..)

Stage 15:

Greipel over Farrar (-150) 3u

Rojas Gil over Bozic (-210) 3u

Hagan over Petacchi (+155) 2u

Andy over Cadel (+140) 2u

Vaitkus over Ciolek (+140) 2u

BOL sims_key on them all except rojas gil 

any leans for the winner of the stage?

# Farrar over Petacchi (-167) 2*
# Boasson over Petacchi (+130) 2*
# Boasson over Rojas (+120) 2*

Sipmple and easy with few matchups I realy like -- for the winner I can't see anyone beat Cav even though he might be the rider that feels the mountains the most, to much juice for me though...

1 more unit added to Hagan over Petacchi.

Actualy thinking on going against your Andy bet..

After reading on another forum about the strong win and possibility for a split in the peleton where BMC might try to ride hard I like Evans to gain time on all the top GC contenders, but that is a big if though...

I think I'll take a chance for 1 unit on Evans over Andy...

Bryuneel on twitter:
Local outside concert going on here, but one would think they're playing inside the rooms. Ideal for a relax night & recovery of the riders.

Hinault over Vaitkus (-182) 3*
Not exacly ideal way to recover from a heavy day in the mountains and Hinault have been solid in simulare stages with 4th, 7th, 10th and 14th place while with the exception of the 20th place on stage 11, Vaitkus havn't beeen better than 92nd...

# Farrar over Petacchi (-167) 2*
# Boasson over Petacchi (+130) 2*
# Boasson over Rojas (+120) 2*
# Hinault over Vaitkus (-182) 3*

2-2, -0.34

rough 3 day stretch here...

2011 TOUR:  +39.95 units

Stage 1:  2-2 +0.00 units
Stage 2:  4-3 +1.15 units
Stage 3:  1-1 -0.40 units

Stage 4:  2-1 +15.60 units

Stage 5:  2-0 +7.00 units

Stage 6:  2-4 -3.00 units

Stage 7:  1-0 +3.00 units
Stage 8:  4-2 +7.35 units
Stage 9:  3-2 +9.90 units

Stage 10: 3-3 +3.20 units

Stage 11: 4-5 +2.65 units 

Stage 12: 5-4 +6.20 units

Stage 13: 3-6 -5.00 units
Stage 14: 3-4 -0.20 units
Stage 15: 1-4 -7.50 units

what do you think about vanenderdt not to win mountain classifcation?

He's at -120 or something.

Futures: 0-2 -2.5 units

Horner to finish in top 3 (+1500) .5u

Horner to finish higher than Levi (+115) 2u

probably going to win...

Cavendish to win Green Jersey (+125) 4u 

Hesjedal over Mollema (-200) 2u  

Sammy Sanchez to finish in top 6 (-110) 2u

probably going to lose...

Contador to win (-125) 4u 

Radioshack over Leopard Trek (-215) 2u

Stage 16:

Andy over Contador (-130) 3u

Sanchez over Evans (-120) 2u

Uran over Voeckler (+180) 1u

Moncoutie over Dupont (+155) 1u

Rojas over Gilbert (+160) 2u

Lets turn this around tomorrow sims.  GL

another crappy day for me...never would have though that andy would crack on such an easy climb.