At the moment I'm making calls to people, trying to get riders quotes etc.
This stage is going to have some nasty crosswind. There is a TTT tomorrow. Garmin and Columbia's goals, well definately Garmin's was to win the TTT - would Garmin go all out today knowing that Farrar won't be able to beat Cavendish and get another second or third if he's lucky or will they just save themselves to win tomorrow?
Likewise Columbia.
I also know Cevelo are looking at the TTT too.
So let's assess the situation. If Cervelo and Garmin are attacking the TTT, would they go all out today? That just leaves Columbia to do all the pace setting.
At the moment I'm making calls to people, trying to get riders quotes etc.
This stage is going to have some nasty crosswind. There is a TTT tomorrow. Garmin and Columbia's goals, well definately Garmin's was to win the TTT - would Garmin go all out today knowing that Farrar won't be able to beat Cavendish and get another second or third if he's lucky or will they just save themselves to win tomorrow?
Likewise Columbia.
I also know Cevelo are looking at the TTT too.
So let's assess the situation. If Cervelo and Garmin are attacking the TTT, would they go all out today? That just leaves Columbia to do all the pace setting.
“Well, tomorrow should be another opportunity to take a crack at a bunch sprint,” said Farrar. “We’ll be looking to repeat today’s efforts, only one place better!” Farrar does not only have field sprints on his mind. The prologue time trial and eventual overall winner of the Tour of Zeeland last month will be putting his efforts towards the goal of the team time trial. “After that is the TTT, where we have to be considered one of the favorites. We’ll all be full gas for that one!”
Hushovd
Tomorrow is another day and we will try. It’s very warm, but it was OK for me. I prefer when it’s 15C cooler, but I had to fight through it.”
I've seen enough
10 units Cav @ $1.75
Good luck!
“Well, tomorrow should be another opportunity to take a crack at a bunch sprint,” said Farrar. “We’ll be looking to repeat today’s efforts, only one place better!” Farrar does not only have field sprints on his mind. The prologue time trial and eventual overall winner of the Tour of Zeeland last month will be putting his efforts towards the goal of the team time trial. “After that is the TTT, where we have to be considered one of the favorites. We’ll all be full gas for that one!”
Hushovd
Tomorrow is another day and we will try. It’s very warm, but it was OK for me. I prefer when it’s 15C cooler, but I had to fight through it.”
This stage might actually get interesting tonight.
This is in a similar area to stage 11 in 2007 from Marseile to Montpelier where crosswinds caused havoc and Astana put the hammer down and got Moreau off guard.
Maybe, just maybe Saxo-Bank and Astana try something today to repeat it. Cavendish better be riding at the front.
This stage might actually get interesting tonight.
This is in a similar area to stage 11 in 2007 from Marseile to Montpelier where crosswinds caused havoc and Astana put the hammer down and got Moreau off guard.
Maybe, just maybe Saxo-Bank and Astana try something today to repeat it. Cavendish better be riding at the front.
This stage might actually get interesting tonight.
This is in a similar area to stage 11 in 2007 from Marseile to Montpelier where crosswinds caused havoc and Astana put the hammer down and got Moreau off guard.
Maybe, just maybe Saxo-Bank and Astana try something today to repeat it. Cavendish better be riding at the front.
Exactly what I thought. All the YJ faves better be very careful today. Maybe Rabobank will try something, Menchov got to make up for the lost time in the prologue.
I hope Cavendish stays up front Winds in the Camargue can get very nasty for the riders
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:
This stage might actually get interesting tonight.
This is in a similar area to stage 11 in 2007 from Marseile to Montpelier where crosswinds caused havoc and Astana put the hammer down and got Moreau off guard.
Maybe, just maybe Saxo-Bank and Astana try something today to repeat it. Cavendish better be riding at the front.
Exactly what I thought. All the YJ faves better be very careful today. Maybe Rabobank will try something, Menchov got to make up for the lost time in the prologue.
I hope Cavendish stays up front Winds in the Camargue can get very nasty for the riders
Armstrong is now 19 seconds ahead of Contador. Now I know Contador won't work for Armstrong but 19 seconds is fuck all if Lance climbs what he did in the Giro.
Hopefully, this gets some sort of reaction and Contador's odds go out a bit.
Contador may be calling on his spanish friends from Caisse telling them "You owe me. Help me!"
Armstrong is now 19 seconds ahead of Contador. Now I know Contador won't work for Armstrong but 19 seconds is fuck all if Lance climbs what he did in the Giro.
Hopefully, this gets some sort of reaction and Contador's odds go out a bit.
Contador may be calling on his spanish friends from Caisse telling them "You owe me. Help me!"
Nicely done with the great odds on that winning bet.
Gonna update the dogs real quick here. Check out the matchups here.
Horrible day yesterday but nothing special today. It's amazing how close some of these H2H finish. After stage 2, I counted at least 3 matchups where the favorite finished exactly 1 spot before the dog.
Stage 2: 3 - 18 for a loss of 13.95 units
Stage 3: 15 - 16 for a profitof 1.601 units
Overall: 30 - 42 42% -5.5 units
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:
10 units Cav @ $1.75
Nicely done with the great odds on that winning bet.
Gonna update the dogs real quick here. Check out the matchups here.
Horrible day yesterday but nothing special today. It's amazing how close some of these H2H finish. After stage 2, I counted at least 3 matchups where the favorite finished exactly 1 spot before the dog.
That was one interesting stage. I find it hard to believe that Zubeldia and Popovych were riding in the front group for Armstrong and actually against Contador. Two possibilities for me: It was just a trap from Astana and the action was "blessed" from Contador, just to make other teams think about it. Or there are really two fractions in the Astana team. Whatever it is now I expect Contador to attack hard in the mountains, especially if today he did expect Armstrong, Popovych and Zubeldia to fall back to peloton and help him catch the group in the front. If thats the case I expect Alberto to attack Armstrong hard on the first opportunity
That was one interesting stage. I find it hard to believe that Zubeldia and Popovych were riding in the front group for Armstrong and actually against Contador. Two possibilities for me: It was just a trap from Astana and the action was "blessed" from Contador, just to make other teams think about it. Or there are really two fractions in the Astana team. Whatever it is now I expect Contador to attack hard in the mountains, especially if today he did expect Armstrong, Popovych and Zubeldia to fall back to peloton and help him catch the group in the front. If thats the case I expect Alberto to attack Armstrong hard on the first opportunity
Leipheimer is one of Armstrong lieutenant since a really long time. He will probably be riding for him as Armstrong did in California.
Stage 4 :
Columbia, Garmin and Astana will rank 1-2-3 for sure. No other team are strong enough to compete will them. Saxo Bank will be 4th due to Cancellara overtime on pull.
I'm all on Garmin over Saxo Bank, low odd but a safe play.
Going 21.7 units to win 12 units (1.549)
I would also suggest :
Columbia over Astana @ 3.41
Cervelo over Silence @ 1.746 ( Evans will lose 1 min to Contador/Armstrong )
Columbia over Saxo @ 1.685
Garmin over Astana @ 3.49
Columbia over Garmin @ 2.12
Bet365 is offering the Field ( not Astana ) @ 2.15, jump on it.
I know Armstrong, Kloden, Leipheimer and Contador are strong, but Garmin has all TT champs and so Columbia does. There's great value to take advantage off.
Saxo Bank has Cancellara and Larsson, the Shleck will help not to lose too much time, not to win.
Garmin failed to win in the Giro, Columbia took it, it's time for revange. But it should be the same, HRT, Garmin and Astana
Leipheimer is one of Armstrong lieutenant since a really long time. He will probably be riding for him as Armstrong did in California.
Stage 4 :
Columbia, Garmin and Astana will rank 1-2-3 for sure. No other team are strong enough to compete will them. Saxo Bank will be 4th due to Cancellara overtime on pull.
I'm all on Garmin over Saxo Bank, low odd but a safe play.
Going 21.7 units to win 12 units (1.549)
I would also suggest :
Columbia over Astana @ 3.41
Cervelo over Silence @ 1.746 ( Evans will lose 1 min to Contador/Armstrong )
Columbia over Saxo @ 1.685
Garmin over Astana @ 3.49
Columbia over Garmin @ 2.12
Bet365 is offering the Field ( not Astana ) @ 2.15, jump on it.
I know Armstrong, Kloden, Leipheimer and Contador are strong, but Garmin has all TT champs and so Columbia does. There's great value to take advantage off.
Saxo Bank has Cancellara and Larsson, the Shleck will help not to lose too much time, not to win.
Garmin failed to win in the Giro, Columbia took it, it's time for revange. But it should be the same, HRT, Garmin and Astana
You are actually saying you expect Columbia to finish in front of Garmin, so why would you make Garmin over Saxo Bank your main play, when you have Columbia over Saxo Bank at better odds ??
You are actually saying you expect Columbia to finish in front of Garmin, so why would you make Garmin over Saxo Bank your main play, when you have Columbia over Saxo Bank at better odds ??
The TTT is a different discipline. No matter how many good TT guys you have in your team, it means jack. Teams need to train specificially long and hard for the TTT. Garmin and Columbia specialise in the discipline. Columbia picked the team leaving out Lovkvist knowing they have the team to win the TTT. Garmin are desperate for a result. Garmin want revenge on Columbia.
After yesterday I don't know if Columbia will be strong enough. They would have used up a lot of energy. Columbia also have won the two TTT's this year. That tells you something. If you don't have the team cohesion (Astana clearly don't), you won't win a TTT.
Columbia/Astana/Garmin finish in the top 3 tonight. Which team, I am going to stick with Columbia. No, I'm not sticking with them out of bias. I'm sticking with them because they have the runs on the board. I'll play it later on today in case I find some news stating otherwise.
A little run down on the TTT.
The TTT is a different discipline. No matter how many good TT guys you have in your team, it means jack. Teams need to train specificially long and hard for the TTT. Garmin and Columbia specialise in the discipline. Columbia picked the team leaving out Lovkvist knowing they have the team to win the TTT. Garmin are desperate for a result. Garmin want revenge on Columbia.
After yesterday I don't know if Columbia will be strong enough. They would have used up a lot of energy. Columbia also have won the two TTT's this year. That tells you something. If you don't have the team cohesion (Astana clearly don't), you won't win a TTT.
Columbia/Astana/Garmin finish in the top 3 tonight. Which team, I am going to stick with Columbia. No, I'm not sticking with them out of bias. I'm sticking with them because they have the runs on the board. I'll play it later on today in case I find some news stating otherwise.
I've got doubts over Columbia today given how much petrol they used at the end of Stage 3. They were essentially riding a 40km TTT at the end of that stage when they broke up the peleton.
I've got doubts over Columbia today given how much petrol they used at the end of Stage 3. They were essentially riding a 40km TTT at the end of that stage when they broke up the peleton.
One thing for sure is that I will be laying Astana to win at 1.55 which is an aburd price. People will get roped into backing them even at that low price seeing who they have in their ranks with 4 world class time trialists but Team Time trial is a completely different discipline which requires cohesion with other team mates. Just don't see Astana having that at the moment.
Columbia and Garmin have been practicing specifically for this stage, may still have a bite on Columbia at around 6/1 but as I posted above not that confident after what they did yesterday.
One thing for sure is that I will be laying Astana to win at 1.55 which is an aburd price. People will get roped into backing them even at that low price seeing who they have in their ranks with 4 world class time trialists but Team Time trial is a completely different discipline which requires cohesion with other team mates. Just don't see Astana having that at the moment.
Columbia and Garmin have been practicing specifically for this stage, may still have a bite on Columbia at around 6/1 but as I posted above not that confident after what they did yesterday.
Bradley Wiggins Christian Vandevelde Ryder Hesjedal David Zabriskie David Millar Danny Pate Tyler Farrar Julian Dean Martijn Maaskant
Columbia
Tony Martin Bert Grabsch George Hincapie Michael Rogers Kim Kirchen Maxime Monfort Bernhard Eisel Mark Renshaw Mark Cavendish
Astana
Alberto Contador Levi Leipheimer Andreas Kloden Lance Armstrong Sergio Paulinho Yaroslav Popovych Gregory Rast Haimar Zubeldia Dmitriy Muravyev
Okay!
Astana do look like they will be hard to beat, but have they practiced? Levi and Lance were in the states and the rest of the team were in Europe and this team doesn't work well together. To win a TTT, you need to be unified. Work together. Have that team cohesion. Astana don't have that.
Columbia showed the right move yesterday by dropping Grabsch back to rest him for today. Columbia showed yesterday they have the team cohesion. Providing Cav sticks with them, he can help them in short bursts. Yesterday Columbia showed that they have the motor that no other team has. They are going to be hard to beat. Columbia have practiced this discipline a lot and have already won both TTT's this year.
Garmin have also practiced this discipline a lot and they do have the firepower as Columbia. They might be looking for revenge. The only thing not on Columbia's side is what happened yesterday. They worked hard and may be spent.
I don't believe it. Columbia are the strongest team in the world at the moment in regards to stage wins and flat stages. This course is technical. Too much for the Astana men.
I'm going all out on this stage. This is the stage I have been waiting for. If Astana win this stage, I lose a lot! If they don't, I win a lot.
5 units Columbia @ $6 4 units Garmin @ $4
2 units Columbia over Astana @ $3.62 1 unit Cervelo Test Team over Silence Lotto @ $2.22 - Cervelo have practiced this a lot. 2 unit Garmin over Astana @ $3.69 3 units Columbia over Saxo Bank @ $1.68
Good luck!
The Big 3
Garmin
Bradley Wiggins Christian Vandevelde Ryder Hesjedal David Zabriskie David Millar Danny Pate Tyler Farrar Julian Dean Martijn Maaskant
Columbia
Tony Martin Bert Grabsch George Hincapie Michael Rogers Kim Kirchen Maxime Monfort Bernhard Eisel Mark Renshaw Mark Cavendish
Astana
Alberto Contador Levi Leipheimer Andreas Kloden Lance Armstrong Sergio Paulinho Yaroslav Popovych Gregory Rast Haimar Zubeldia Dmitriy Muravyev
Okay!
Astana do look like they will be hard to beat, but have they practiced? Levi and Lance were in the states and the rest of the team were in Europe and this team doesn't work well together. To win a TTT, you need to be unified. Work together. Have that team cohesion. Astana don't have that.
Columbia showed the right move yesterday by dropping Grabsch back to rest him for today. Columbia showed yesterday they have the team cohesion. Providing Cav sticks with them, he can help them in short bursts. Yesterday Columbia showed that they have the motor that no other team has. They are going to be hard to beat. Columbia have practiced this discipline a lot and have already won both TTT's this year.
Garmin have also practiced this discipline a lot and they do have the firepower as Columbia. They might be looking for revenge. The only thing not on Columbia's side is what happened yesterday. They worked hard and may be spent.
I don't believe it. Columbia are the strongest team in the world at the moment in regards to stage wins and flat stages. This course is technical. Too much for the Astana men.
I'm going all out on this stage. This is the stage I have been waiting for. If Astana win this stage, I lose a lot! If they don't, I win a lot.
5 units Columbia @ $6 4 units Garmin @ $4
2 units Columbia over Astana @ $3.62 1 unit Cervelo Test Team over Silence Lotto @ $2.22 - Cervelo have practiced this a lot. 2 unit Garmin over Astana @ $3.69 3 units Columbia over Saxo Bank @ $1.68
Winds in the Camargue can get very nasty for the riders 
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