2009 Tour de France

The chasers did more work and Columbia had help from Astana and Milram. Grabsch dropped back and Martin didn't do much work in keeping the peloton away. They left their two time trialers fresh.

Plus this is 39km, they don't need to do many pulls on the front. Columbia have the runs on the board. They showed it in Switzerland.

Thanks...I see that.

Adding

2 units Martin in yellow @ $6.60

I am confident that Columbia put more than 33 seconds on Saxo Bank

Good luck!

Read into this what you will:

Interesting tidbit from l'Equipe today- when Contador crossed the line, he expressed surprise at learning that Astana had collaborated in the escape, saying no such instructions had come over team radio. Yet Popovych could be clearly seen acknowledging or forwarding the call to ride, around 25k before the finish. That tells us the call either came from within the group itself, or Bruyneel runs more than one radio channel.

I don't think today is a sprint finish.

If you remember back to Stage 3, no team wanted to help Columbia. They thought it was a useless exercise to help as they knew Cav would win. They hope Columbia do all the work to bring the gap back but Columbia are clearly tired.

This will be either;

a) a carbon copy of stage 3 with a split
b) a break

Don't be surprised if some major GC contenders like Silence Lotto and Rabobank who have now lost too much time on their rivals put a hammer down today in the hope of splitting the peloton to hopefully get Astana off guard.

This stage is a mystery today IMO.

Yet again, I thought I had a sensbile write up yesterday and I got slaughtered.

If I play today, it's only small and I see good value in Pineau, Voeckler, Voigt and Chavanel each at 100's and maybe Haussler at 80's on betfair.

The break is a good chance to survive today unless Columbia can bring the gap back themselves (highly possible) or GC teams repeat what Columbia did on Stage 3 (highly possible)

Too much of a mystery to bet. Better off waiting for a classics specialist tomorrow (Andy Schleck, Allesandro Ballan or Kim Kirchen) and wait for Friday with Contador, Krueziger or Sastre.

Is it me or can anyone see the following:

Astana being the Saulnier Duval of last year when they dominate Friday's stage.

Some riders being a Vino in 2007?

But they won't coz Lance is covering up the same shit he was in 1999-2005. But it would be good to see them get unstuck.

I don't know about Columbia. They are here for stage wins and not for the GC. They might throw someone in the break...that's a possibility I suppose. This is the last real stage until Tuesday to set up a sprint for Cav.

Rogers is high up in the GC yes, but he has done so much work in the first week. Columbia won't be featuring anywhere come Saturday week.

But I'm not touching Cav at that price. Any other stage, I would. But this is going to be a strange stage. I've done the following and will leave it at that.

.2 units on the following

Vogondy @ $100
Voigt @ $100
Pineau @ $100
Chavanel @ $100
Ignatiev @ $66
Voeckler @ $100
Auge @ $80

If I play anymore, it's in live betting.

Good luck!

Columbia will be the only team that will chase down a break if they want the break caught. No other team will help them. Columbia don't have the firepower to do that. They will wait till next week where Cav can win from Tuesday to Friday

All the other GC teams unless Evans and Sastre want to put time on Astana will take it easy today after the hard few days.