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2009 Tour de France

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Posts: 291

bluephinn

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 4063

Posted: Jul. 22, 2009 - 3:15 AM ET #251

I am a pure novice at gambling on this sport,but have watched it for many years...A tough sport to make money from unless you follow the sport vehemently, to which I cannot acclaim..However from my view, Lance still had plenty of legs underneath him on that second climb yesterday, yet when he caught the so called "elite group" he turned to Contador, said something and then just tagged along..Had me pondering what the dynamics are within Astana at the present and where Armstrong`s position lays...So forgive me for my naivety But does Lance now have to do whatever Contador says?? Or is he free to attack his team mate on this stage???I have had a couple of outsider wagers but I sensed Armstrong was not done last night so thought either hit him or go large on Contador..Any feedback would be appreciated...If not, enjoy Le Tour All.....
BOLA.
.

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jul. 22, 2009 - 3:43 AM ET #252

Yeah Nick, they were with Centrebet - all of them.

Anyway those head to heads look solid. Why Gerdemann over Knees? Are you thinking like me that Gerds does the break today? I had him ear-marked for this stage before the Tour began.

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jul. 22, 2009 - 3:44 AM ET #253

Quote Originally Posted by bluephinn:

What that tells me is Armstrong has some legs and was playing around with the field a bit.

If Armstrong storms the time trial tomorrow, he will put the leadership for Contador in doubt and it will be all for one and one for all on Ventoux.

However, I think Contador lets Armstrong attack on Ventoux to try and give him the stage win as thanks for helping Contador. But who knows.

It's hard to know what goes on in Drugstrongs head.

bluephinn

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 4063

Posted: Jul. 22, 2009 - 4:25 AM ET #254

Thanks Bolar...Appreciate that..

Was leaning towards Lance thinking much the same in regards to gratitude for his support, but which stage was always the question...Then Contador`s press conference after taking the Yellow had me worried somewhat as to how deep those rumbles really were..plus have no where near the history in race as yourself and Nick...Not normally a backer of sentimental favorites (even if its Lance) but on this occasion I have to trust that those legs may be old but that mind is still wise...Have also taken Moncoutie who is no outsider as well as your special Bolar..Gerdemann...So thanks again and best of luck to all who may dabble on this great spectacle..

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jul. 22, 2009 - 6:59 AM ET #255

Okay. I'm annoyed I missed the break, even though Monfort is trying to catch on having just attacked the peloton.

Out of the lead group, Uran is the one I would be comfortable having money on at the moment. It's a risk playing a bet this early in the stage, but a risk I'll take.

In-play 2 units Uran @ $10

Good luck!

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jul. 22, 2009 - 7:00 AM ET #256

Bluephinn - sorry about giving you the wrong riders today. Moncoutie tried nothing.

However, Gerdemann tried to attack at the start. His two attacks he did counted to nothing. I was right on there with him, but unfortunately he didn't get away. Whether it was something about his comment to Armstrong when Armstrong came out, who knows.

Check back for more updates on Armstrong. He might be a play in the time trial tomorrow.....

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jul. 22, 2009 - 7:09 AM ET #257

Now I have 3 out of 15 riders there, I'm kinda happy.

Uran, Monfort and Rolland. The break isn't exactly wrong and I might have Uran and Monfort as the stronger riders there.

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jul. 22, 2009 - 7:09 AM ET #258

Wrong=Strong

Looch10

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 22

Posted: Jul. 22, 2009 - 7:41 AM ET #259

hey bolar, been using your advice lately in the tour.. appreciate it

Lucky7th

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2008

Posts: 3327

Posted: Jul. 22, 2009 - 7:47 AM ET #260

So damn funny with Hushovd in the lead right now... :D
Won't last much longer, but I remember just last year and every year he's been riding the Tour how he struggled in the mountains...

Looch10

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 22

Posted: Jul. 22, 2009 - 7:48 AM ET #261

in-play i see menchov vs pellizotti.. is franco an easy play here??

Lucky7th

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2008

Posts: 3327

Posted: Jul. 22, 2009 - 8:02 AM ET #262

Someone else her who got a good feeling on Chavanel??

Looch10

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 22

Posted: Jul. 22, 2009 - 8:16 AM ET #263

i have a half-unit on sylvain

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jul. 22, 2009 - 9:38 AM ET #264

Highly doubt this break will last.

1 unit Armstrong @ $21
1 unit Schleck @ $6

Good luck!

n1ck

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 289

Posted: Jul. 22, 2009 - 11:37 AM ET #265

Quote Originally Posted by n1ck:

I had already placed LLS over Nocentini but none of your other bets figures on Pinnacle. I've placed 5 plays at 3 units each :

Frank Schleck vs Carlos Sastre @1.794

Roman Kreuziger vs Kim Kirchen @2.24

Mikel Astarloza vs Sandy Casar @ 1.606
Luis Leon Sanchez vs Rinaldo Nocentini @ 1.82
Vladimir Karpets vs Jurgen Van Den Broeck @ 2.33

I added two dogs this morning 1 unit each

Lance Armstrong vs Andreas Kloden @ 2.140

You had the right man but not the right name. Andy gave the victory to Frank and so did Contador. What a trio, they were so amazing on the climb, Ventoux will be so nice on saturday.

I've won 2 bets by one spot and lost 1 by one spot as well. There's still one pending play : Christian Knees vs Linus Gerdemann @ 2.23

Hushovd had an excellent day...wow

elithepunk

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 3552

Posted: Jul. 22, 2009 - 9:42 PM ET #266

Quote Originally Posted by n1ck:

Ventoux will be so nice on saturday.

Hushovd had an excellent day...wow

Nick, will you be there somewhere before the big hill?

Now that Cavendish is gonna make it to the finish line in Paris (unless you quietly stick a branch in his wheel and injure him badly

), it's great to think that Thor has the green jersey practically won. Could you have imagined that! Winning that bet because he actually won the jersey and not because Cav dropped out like he was expected to (gotta give props to Bolar who was a sceptic and still chose Hushovd to win it).

elithepunk

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 3552

Posted: Jul. 22, 2009 - 9:56 PM ET #267

Nick = check your PM inbox.

And, as always, BOL to all in here. Has been an enjoyable Tour to watch and follow through the analysis of the cappers in here even during the rough times

bluephinn

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 4063

Posted: Jul. 22, 2009 - 11:34 PM ET #268

Hey Bolar..All good my friend..I liked both riders myself so I would of backed them either way..Contador??...God knows what goes on inside that guys head...I am a fool for trying to work it out..He is in form no doubt and more than likely the best climber in the race, however he knows how create problems between himself and his teamates.. Who is right or wrong all depends on which side of the fence you sit on I suppose...All I know is the drama will continue and thats the way I like it....
BOLA

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jul. 22, 2009 - 11:43 PM ET #269

Gerdemann was in the break today and tried all he could. So he had this stage targetted. It's just the peloton had other ideas.

10 units Bruseghin over Rogers @ $1.72 - We have a solid time trialist v a rider who is riding fucking shit who has a fucked up back who struggles to get power.

1.5 unit Kreuziger over Nibali @ $2.70 - Kreu is the better time trialist. At these odds, in a close battle, worth to be taken.

1.5 unit Karpets over Schleck @ $2.20 - Schleck can't time trial, Karpets can

5 unit Grabsch over Zabriskie @ $1.90 -

2 unit Martin over Nibali @ $2.25 - Martin the better TT.

3 unit Grabsch top 3 @ $3.50
1 unit Grabsch to win @ $13

Good luck!

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jul. 22, 2009 - 11:44 PM ET #270

Sorry about the swearing!

Eli - thanks, Can't believe Hushovd was what, $7? Pity I didn't have more on him. If you looked at it pretour, Cervelo had the team for the Green Jersey.

Cav will win the Green next year. Always hard backing a man who hasn't finished a GT to win Green.

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jul. 23, 2009 - 5:15 AM ET #271

Final Bets

10 units Bruseghin over Rogers @ $1.72
1.5 unit Kreuziger over Nibali @ $2.70

1.5 unit Karpets over Schleck @ $2.20

5 unit Grabsch over Zabriskie @ $1.90
2 unit Martin over Nibali @ $2.25
1 unit Martin over Nibali @ $2.55

3 unit Grabsch top 3 @ $3.50
1 unit Grabsch to win @ $13

2.5 unit Contador to win @ $8
3 unit Contador top 3 @ $1.95

.2 unit Martin @ $81
.5 unit Evans @ $41

n1ck

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 289

Posted: Jul. 23, 2009 - 7:47 AM ET #272

Hushovd is a much complete rider, he can climb compared to Cavendish. I had Hushovd @ 9 on Bet365 before the start.

By the way I ended 4-3 yesterday with 4.2 units in profit

Overall : 36-45, -42.5 units

Here are my plays for today :

4 units on Bradley Wiggins vs Andreas Kloden @ 1.671
3 units on Alberto Contador vs Lance Armstrong @ 1.306
2 units on Gustav Erik Larsson vs Sylvain Chavanel @ 1.719
3 units on Danny Pate vs Brian Vandborg @ 1.758

2 units on Tony Martin vs Vicenzo Nibali @ 2.58
5 units on Fabian Cancellara vs Alberto Contador @ 1.299
3 units on Bradley Wiggins vs Alberto Contador @ 2.14

Cancellara
Wiggins
Contador

My expected top 3. Two winning days in row for Saxo

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jul. 23, 2009 - 11:43 AM ET #273

Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

Final Bets

10 units Bruseghin over Rogers @ $1.72
1.5 unit Kreuziger over Nibali @ $2.70

1.5 unit Karpets over Schleck @ $2.20

5 unit Grabsch over Zabriskie @ $1.90
2 unit Martin over Nibali @ $2.25
1 unit Martin over Nibali @ $2.55

3 unit Grabsch top 3 @ $3.50
1 unit Grabsch to win @ $13

2.5 unit Contador to win @ $8
3 unit Contador top 3 @ $1.95

.2 unit Martin @ $81
.5 unit Evans @ $41

+10 for the stage!

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jul. 23, 2009 - 11:45 AM ET #274

Guys tomorrow I can't be around but there's really 3 riders you should be looking at.

1. Sylvain Chavanel - he'll be in the break

2. David Moncoutie - he'll be in the break - could break away on that last climb. The 14km Cat 2 climb comes 16km from the end so he can descend.

3. Stijn Devolder - looks to be getting back into form. 11 minutes yesterday, rode top 15 today in the TT I think. He can do similar to what he did in Flanders!

I'll have 1 unit on each of them probably! Go all out. The first 2 are hungry as anything. The third one attempted a break on a mountain stage.

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jul. 24, 2009 - 2:08 AM ET #275

Tonight!

1.5 unit Moncoutie @ $31
1.5 unit Chavanel @ $21
1 unit Casar @ $41
1 unit Devolder @ $67

.5 unit Monfort @ $67
.5 unit Rogers @ $67
.5 unit Ignatiev @ $67
.5 unit Trofimov @ $67
.5 unit Rolland @ $101
.5 unit Garate @ $67
.5 unit Gutierrez @ $67
.5 unit Flecha @ $67

This worked to great perfection 3 times already. A break will win tonight. Let's look at these riders.

1. Sylvain Chavanel - Has come out and said pre-tour he wants to repeat 2008. This is the last day for him to do it. Been somewhat unlucky and tried hard.

2. David Moncoutie - Has come out and said pre-tour he was going for the Mountains Classification and a Stage Win. He missed the Mountains Classification, this is his last chance for a Stage Win.

3. Yuri Trofimov - Bbox rider and they said they will be active today.

4. Pierre Rolland - Bbox rider and they said they will be active today and he wants top 20 so they hinted that he might have to do the break to get time back.

5. Sandy Casar - How many seconds has this guy grabbed? 2 or 3? He'll be trying his heart out today.

6. Mikhail Ignatiev - Good ride yesterday and was unlucky in breaks before. He's desperate and so are Katusha. He's the only rider from Katusha that can win unless Pozzato is sent up the road.

7. Jose Ivan Gutierrez - On the rest day he came out and said he was going for a stage win as Caisse D'Epargne have been quiet. He's only tried one breakaway. Tonight?

8. Juan Manuel Garate - Same as Gutierrez. He's come out and said he wants to win from a break. Rabobank have lost out big time this tour. They need a win desperately.

9. Juan Antonio Flecha - Same reasons as Garate. Team-mates. Ten Dam has been sent up the road a few times and done fuck all. If they want a win, one of these two riders do it for them.

10. Michael Rogers - Hit back on form yesterday. Shithouse Tour. Targetted last Friday's stage I think it was but had a crash the day before and couldn't do anything. Columbia need a win now that everyone is out of the GC race.

11. Maxime Monfort - See Rogers. Tried the break the otherday. Will be keen to make amends and give Columbia another win.

12. Stijn Devolder - this stage suits him. It's got a classics feel to it. Devolder is a classics specialist. That climb at the end suits him. See what happens there. He tried a break last week but didn't have the legs. He's clearly back in form now.

One of those 12 should win tonight. I'll wait for live betting if need be if I'm not well represented in the break. Can't go past some of these hungry quality riders who have proven before they are solid riders. Not to mention the break survives because the GC contenders don't want to work hard till tomorrow.