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2009 Tour de France

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Posts: 291

delasoul_iam

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 1098

Posted: Jul. 4, 2009 - 9:05 AM ET #26

All bets:

Overall classification:

Contador to win the Tour @2.15

Evans over Andy Schleck @1.93

Points classification:

Freire over Cavendish @2.68

Hushovd over Cavendish @3.84

First stage:

The Field over Cancellara @2.38

n1ck

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 289

Posted: Jul. 4, 2009 - 10:54 AM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by delasoul_iam:

I took the same two bets a week ago: Hushovd @ 3.84 (it actually was 4.02 at top), and Freire at 2.68. The problem with those bets: There are only two flat stages after stage 15, so if Cavendish really dominates the first two weeks flat stages there will be no chance for other sprinters to battle back even if he retires.

It doesn't matter, Cavendish will dominate for sure but when he'll quit, he'll be out of the standing therefore your 2 plays will be winners.

I'm not even sure Cavendish will wear the green jersey once.

n1ck

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 289

Posted: Jul. 4, 2009 - 11:53 AM ET #28

Adding live in play...

2.5 units Evans over Contador @ 2.40 2.5 units

2.5 units Field @ 2.75

n1ck

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 289

Posted: Jul. 4, 2009 - 1:31 PM ET #29

Oh god...How can this be true...

I've basically lost everything I've won in Switzerland

No one could even win a matchup.

-27.25 units 0-7 record...

elithepunk

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 3552

Posted: Jul. 4, 2009 - 1:33 PM ET #30

Oh my, this was a slaughter of a day to say the least. Everything did not end well. Fabian in a league of his own. Absolutely no one could keep up with him even with the uphill challenge. Amazing.

Let's hope this was just a weird day and everyone can get back on track in the days to come. BOL to you all.

Ace77

Legend

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 30979

Posted: Jul. 4, 2009 - 1:42 PM ET #31

Thor Hushovd is a peice of shit

Ace77

Legend

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 30979

Posted: Jul. 4, 2009 - 1:42 PM ET #32

Thor Hushovd is a peice of shit

elithepunk

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 3552

Posted: Jul. 4, 2009 - 1:45 PM ET #33

Quote Originally Posted by n1ck:

Oh god...How can this be true...

Yeah, thats a better way to put it. Money management is key but going 0 - 7 is like a punch in the face

. Now it's time to get back up and struggle to get back in the game if you still can and want to do so.

Also, time to keep it simple and jump on underdog value plays that stand out as being strange offers. I'll be tracking how well the dogs perform in the matchup and will have data to back up these claims if I see conclusive results in some way.

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jul. 4, 2009 - 2:29 PM ET #34

This first stage was a shocker.

However, the overall bets are looking good now.

Rogers is the GC man for Columbia. I don't know what happened to Kirchen. That shocked me.

That Contador/Evans quinella is looking very nice!

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jul. 4, 2009 - 2:30 PM ET #35

Cavendish will be even money tomorrow - get on him.

Unless you're ambitious to find a head to head or a top 3, get on cav.

Hushovd top 3 might be a good go. Handy odds. Or Haussler top 3. Farrar top 3 maybe.

elithepunk

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 3552

Posted: Jul. 4, 2009 - 2:50 PM ET #36

I hope you don't mind me sharing this info in your thread Bolar but I did get to calculate how good the dogs did in the H2H for stage 1.Please tell me if you'd prefer I post this elsewhere on the forum if ever this thread gets too heavy.

NOTE: All lines are from Pinnacle and are dated from 8h12 PM on July the 2nd. I was hoping to use opening lines but copied the odds too late to observe opening lines. I know this alters the results but I'll keep track of opening lines ( or as close as I get them ) in the future. Also, by dogs, I am not referring to + money only. As you can see, slight underdogs are also counted in the results.

RESULTS : 12 - 8 from 21 matchups offered on Pinny. One no bet because of equal lines.

This might not work but here is a copy-paste job to outline the breakdown of the results. I am finding this quite interesting to track how well the bookies set the cycling lines. I am expecting everything to even out by the time the tour is done but will track anyways. Sorry if the following screws up the page. I'll ask CT to remove if it happens.

elithepunk

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 3552

Posted: Jul. 4, 2009 - 2:59 PM ET #37

Had too much trouble copying the list of results on here so uploaded the doc file right HERE. Feel free to check if I made any errors.

I'm counting a profit of + 6.85 units so far.

rod_steel

Legend

Joined: Feb, 2005

Posts: 102561

Posted: Jul. 4, 2009 - 7:41 PM ET #38

Interesting numbers elite

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jul. 4, 2009 - 9:47 PM ET #39

Don't mind you posting here. We are here to help each other.

muzza

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2008

Posts: 717

Posted: Jul. 5, 2009 - 1:03 AM ET #40

Goodluck Bolar!

I'm on Rogers over Vande Velde myself. A bit disappointed that Rogers broke his chain twice in Stage 1 but i'm confident he will bounce back..

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jul. 5, 2009 - 3:57 AM ET #41

10 units Cavendish @ $2.10

Good luck!

Ace77

Legend

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 30979

Posted: Jul. 5, 2009 - 4:40 AM ET #42

Good call on Contador last night Bolar re making a statement

I was on Evans head to head vs Contador,they both rode extremely well but Contador got the faster time

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jul. 5, 2009 - 5:12 AM ET #43

Quote Originally Posted by Ace77:

Good call on Contador last night Bolar re making a statement

I was on Evans head to head vs Contador,they both rode extremely well but Contador got the faster time

Wish I was on it!

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jul. 5, 2009 - 6:24 AM ET #44

3 units Hushovd to place @ $4.50

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jul. 5, 2009 - 11:21 AM ET #45

Easy for Cav

Lost for Haussler - that was actually Haussler to place, not Hushovd.

n1ck

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 289

Posted: Jul. 5, 2009 - 11:25 AM ET #46

It was easy money on Cavendish but I was away for the day yesterday, I couldn't place any bet.

Stage 3 will be the same...Cavendish to take it over Hushovd and Farrar.

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jul. 5, 2009 - 1:42 PM ET #47

When was the last time a sprinter was below $1.80 to win a Tour de France stage?

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jul. 5, 2009 - 1:44 PM ET #48

When was the last time a sprinter in the TDF was under $1.80?

Most places have him under $1.70 so far.

For people that don't have balls to take Cav at those odds - back Farrar for a place.

And look for a head to head!

n1ck

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 289

Posted: Jul. 5, 2009 - 7:57 PM ET #49

Cavendish is at 1.50 on Bet365. No one can beat the Columbia train.

I think Hushovd will push hard enough to rank amount the top 3. Farrar will do the same.

There's no value in taking Cavendish @ 1.60 on Pinnacle, here are my 4 units sprinter H2H.

Hushovd over Freire @ 2.00 Expecting 2nd and 6th

Feillu over Napolitano @ 2.05 The french rider need to impress.

Roche over Arashiro @ 1.725 The asian rider is inexpected at the top, he'll go back to 20th postion tomorrow.

Haussler over Renshaw @ 1.735 The other sprinter for Cervelo. He might keep in touch with Hushovd until the end.

Wish for a much better day.

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jul. 5, 2009 - 11:18 PM ET #50

Arashiro over Bonnet is tempting - $2.43

Furlan over Rojas @ $1.87 is tempting too!

Bennati over Boonen @ $2.43

Hmmm! Let me think on that one!

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