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General Sharps 2014-2015 NHL Picks

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Posts: 1204

GeneralSharp

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2014

Posts: 634

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 4:12 AM ET #301

Not a good night. Not going to get upset over the disallowed goal or close empty net attempt. Just the way it goes sometimes.

TB@EDM OVER 5.5 1.90 (-110) - LOSE $100

TB PL -1.5 2.80 (+180) - LOSE $100

Overall cost of bets: $200

Overall winnings: -$200

Overall profit: -$208, -2.00 units

2014-2015 NHL Season Record to Date: 26W - 22L

Starting Bankroll: $10,000

Current Bankroll: $11,047

Total Profit in $: +$1,047

Total Profit in Units: +10.47 units

Back with Tuesday's plays in a few hours.

GeneralSharp

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2014

Posts: 634

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 4:17 AM ET #302

*Correction, overall profit loss was 200, not 208

+10.47 is accurate

JasonZyman

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2013

Posts: 2364

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 4:29 AM ET #303

Just a question, would you feel comfortable putting $1000 to win $500 on the Hawks tomorrow night against the Flyers?

slew

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 77

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 5:16 AM ET #304

I'd be more comfortable putting that 1000 on Nashville...best play on the board

GeneralSharp

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2014

Posts: 634

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 5:39 AM ET #305

Today's Plays: Tuesday October 21st, 2014: All lines are from Pinnacle Sports at the time of post.

Very rare 4 tie pick night, 7 plays overall. Good luck to all. As always, flat bet 1 unit each.

TOR@NYI OVER 5.5 1.82 (-124)

PHI@CHI OVER 5.5 1.84 (-118)

NAS ML 1.68 (-147)

SJ@BOS TIE 3.93 (+293)

VAN@DAL TIE 3.93 (+293)

DET@MTL TIE 3.97 (+297)

NYR@NJ TIE 3.81 (+281)

GeneralSharp

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2014

Posts: 634

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 5:40 AM ET #306

Quote Originally Posted by JasonZyman:

Just a question, would you feel comfortable putting $1000 to win $500 on the Hawks tomorrow night against the Flyers?

Hawks have not had a great start, and Philly as turned it on lately. I would not lay that number. The better bet is over 5.5 in that game. That is one of my plays. Good luck

JasonZyman

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2013

Posts: 2364

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 5:48 AM ET #307

You're right, they haven't had a great start but they're still winning and eventually the real team will show up. Flyers are poop lol

GL on your picks bro!

sports_Network

Banned

Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 8426

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 6:59 AM ET #308

Quote Originally Posted by GeneralSharp:

Today's Plays: Tuesday October 21st, 2014: All lines are from Pinnacle Sports at the time of post.

Very rare 4 tie pick night, 7 plays overall. Good luck to all. As always, flat bet 1 unit each.

TOR@NYI OVER 5.5 1.82 (-124)

PHI@CHI OVER 5.5 1.84 (-118)

NAS ML 1.68 (-147)

SJ@BOS TIE 3.93 (+293)

VAN@DAL TIE 3.93 (+293)

DET@MTL TIE 3.97 (+297)

NYR@NJ TIE 3.81 (+281)

The results should be very interesting....going with the TIES as the key element; all highly attainable handicaps, have a prosperous evening

WakaFlocka

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2014

Posts: 55

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 7:50 AM ET #309

I'm with you, General!

WakaFlocka

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2014

Posts: 55

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 8:35 AM ET #310

Do you have time to explain why you're going with four ties tonight?

Dmalberty

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2014

Posts: 91

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 11:15 AM ET #311

Let's get it tonight General! Stay sharp

FullyLoaded

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 4084

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 11:18 AM ET #312

GL General

Serendipity25

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2014

Posts: 63

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 11:51 AM ET #313

Let's make up for last night General! I'm feeling a 2-3/4 TIE hit tonight for a very great night.

Russ-SVTF150

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2014

Posts: 101

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 1:25 PM ET #314

Thanks for the picks Gen, lets have a huge night!!

bennyblanco09

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2013

Posts: 41

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 2:22 PM ET #315

Im tailing General, thanks for your awesome work.

GeneralSharp

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2014

Posts: 634

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 2:40 PM ET #316

Quote Originally Posted by WakaFlocka:

Do you have time to explain why you're going with four ties tonight?

My model is based on a score system after all factors are computed. When the teams score is within a few points of each other, I bet a tie. When one team has a far superior score, i bet puck line. If it's moderate, i pick money line.

The system is based upon goalies, coaching, coaching systems, line match ups, fatigue, motivational factors, defensive pairings, etc...it is updated every day.

fxbrassard

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 189

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 3:40 PM ET #317

Could you PM me General? For some reasons I can't send PMs. Would be appreciated. Thanks.

magyarsvensk

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2014

Posts: 31

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 3:52 PM ET #318

Quote Originally Posted by GeneralSharp:

I understand +EV, but there is no value in a loser. Tampa bay has a better goalie, by far, much better defense, and more scoring threats. EDM is a disaster. Is TB a lock? No, but I will not over think this. My model says TB, TB it is. Good luck.

Except when the loser wins, I guess.

CCO687

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2014

Posts: 3431

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 3:58 PM ET #319

Anyone use Bookmaker?

Cannot find the tie option for NHL games :(

fxbrassard

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 189

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 4:02 PM ET #320

Quote Originally Posted by magyarsvensk:

Except when the loser wins, I guess.

So I guess you can predict every game with 100% certainty?

General capped the game 4-2 TBL, with a few bounces it could have easily ended that score. Tampa missed a lot of scores.

No bet is a lock.

fxbrassard

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 189

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 4:03 PM ET #321

a lot of chances* why cant we edit our posts? :)

magyarsvensk

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2014

Posts: 31

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 4:13 PM ET #322

Quote Originally Posted by fxbrassard:

So I guess you can predict every game with 100% certainty?

General capped the game 4-2 TBL, with a few bounces it could have easily ended that score. Tampa missed a lot of scores.

No bet is a lock.

Yeah, Tampa only needed 3 more goals to cover. No biggie.

You have it backwards. I am saying that "losers" can provide great value precisely because of uncertainty. They are all professionals after all.

oreooreo1

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2013

Posts: 619

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 4:18 PM ET #323

Quote Originally Posted by CCO687:

Anyone use Bookmaker?Cannot find the tie option for NHL games :(

Pussies don't have it, bovada does.

oreooreo1

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2013

Posts: 619

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 4:20 PM ET #324

Quote Originally Posted by magyarsvensk:

Quote Originally Posted by GeneralSharp:

I understand +EV, but there is no value in a loser. Tampa bay has a better goalie, by far, much better defense, and more scoring threats. EDM is a disaster. Is TB a lock? No, but I will not over think this. My model says TB, TB it is. Good luck.

Except when the loser wins, I guess.

So what are you saying? I told you so?

GeneralSharp

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2014

Posts: 634

Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 5:11 PM ET #325

Quote Originally Posted by magyarsvensk:

Yeah, Tampa only needed 3 more goals to cover. No biggie.

You have it backwards. I am saying that "losers" can provide great value precisely because of uncertainty. They are all professionals after all.

There was not one factor you could say EDM was better than Tampa at before the game started. Not goaltending, not defense, not offense, not mindset, not coaching, absolutely nothing. Taking teams just because they offer a dog price isn't a winning solution.

If anything, Tampa lost the game, EDM did not "win" it. You can cherry pick all you want, but in the long run taking EDM in that spot at +140 is a losing play.

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